再论服装渠道模式差异：直营向左，经销向右.pdf

EPS PE 2018 2019E 2020E 2018 2019E 2020E 002563.SZ 0.63 0.69 0.81 15.29 13.96 11.89 2020.HK 1.53 2.05 2.56 43.02 32.11 25.71 WIND, Table_Main | 2019 12 10 S0120518030001 (8621)68761616_8747 shilin tebon Table_Summary ROE ROE ROE ROE ZARA NIKE ERP SAP ZARA NIKE 2015 ZARA -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 37% 2018-11 2019-03 2019-07 2019-11 300 2 / 23 1. ROE . 5 1.1. ROE . 5 1.2. ROE . 6 1.2.1. ROE20% . 7 1.2.2. ROE=15-20% . 7 1.2.3. ROE=10-15% . 8 1.3. ROE . 9 2. VS . 10 2.1. . 10 2.2. . 11 2.3. . 12 2.3.1. . 12 2.3.2. . 13 2.3.3. ZARA . 14 2.3.4. NIKE . 15 2.4. UA lululemon . 17 3. . 19 3.1. . 20 3.2. . 20 3.2.1. . 20 3.2.2. . 21 3 / 23 1 ROE . 5 2 . 11 3 . 12 4 . 12 5 . 12 6 2009-2018 FILA . 13 7 2005-2018 ZARA . 14 8 SPA . 14 9 ZARA . 15 10 2010-2018 NIKE . 16 11 2010-2018 NIKE . 16 12 2010-2018 ADIDAS . 16 13 2010-2018 ADIDAS . 16 14 NIKE . 17 15 NIKE . 17 16 NIKE+ Run Club . 17 17 UA . 18 18 Lululemon . 18 19 UA Lululemon . 18 20 2007 UA Lululemon . 19 21 . 20 22 . 20 23 . 21 24 . 21 25 . 22 1 ROE . 6 2 ROE 10% . 6 3 ROE 20% . 7 4 ROE 15-20% . 8 5 ROE 10-15% . 9 4 / 23 6 . 9 7 ROE . 10 8 2011-2018 . 13 9 2010-2018 NIKE % . 16 10 UA Lululemon . 19 11 . 21 5 / 23 1. ROE ROE 1.1. ROE ROE ROE = / = / * / * / = * * ROE 1 ROE ROE ROE ROE 1. 6 / 23 2. ROE 3. 1 ROE ROE % % 600519.SH 34.46 49.00 1.44 0.52 600867.SH 18.13 31.15 1.10 0.53 002127.SZ 26.23 26.46 1.24 0.80 600612.SH 20.42 3.57 2.45 3.03 000895.SZ 35.62 10.37 1.65 2.15 600887.SH 24.29 8.11 1.83 1.64 601318.SH 20.86 12.33 13.24 0.14 000651.SZ 33.40 13.19 2.97 0.86 000333.SZ 25.80 8.27 3.26 1.02 WIND 1.2. ROE A/H 2018 ROE 10% 6 ROE20% 6 ROE ROE 20% 15-20% 10-15% 2 ROE 10% ROE20% ROE=15-20% ROE=10-15%