化工行业深度报告：燃料油出口退税政策获批，中国炼厂的大机会.pdf

Table_MainInfo Table_Title / Table_Summary 2020 1 221 12182 IMO 2020IMO 2020IMO 20203 Table_CompanyFinance EPS PE 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 4.78 0.49 0.53 0.54 9.76 9.02 8.85 5.38 0.30 0.33 0.36 17.93 16.30 14.94 16.34 1.42 1.82 2.08 11.51 8.98 7.86 10.91 0.43 0.86 1.11 25.37 12.69 9.83 14.09 1.45 1.68 1.97 9.72 8.39 7.15 Table_Invest Table_PicQuote - 4%3%10%17%24%31%2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1Table_Trend % 1M 3M 12M -4.08% 10.81% 13.69% -2.21% 5.64% -8.44% Table_IndustryMarket 355 33871 25186 13.87 1.52 48806 1816 % 49.99 Table_Report 20202019-11-22 2019-11-03 PTA VSPTA 2019-11-01 Table_Author 2020-02-23 2 / 30Table_PageTop 1. IMO 2020 “ ” . 4 1.1. IMO 2020 . 4 1.1.1.IMO . 4 1.1.2.IMO 2020 . 4 1.1.3.IMO 2020 . 6 2. IMO 2020 . 8 2.1. or . 10 2.1.1. 17% . 10 2.1.2. LSFO V.S. MGO . 12 2.1.3.LNG . 14 2.2. . 14 2.2.1. . 14 2.2.2. . 17 2.2.3. . 19 2.3. IMO 2020 . 21 2.3.1. . 21 2.3.2. . 22 3. . 24 3.1. . 24 3.1.1. “ ” “ ” . 24 3.1.2. . 25 3.2. . 26 3.3. 2020 2000 . 27 3.3.1.2020 1815 . 27 3.3.2. . 28 3 / 30Table_PageTop 1 IMO . 5 2 2016 70% . 8 3 . 9 4 2016 . 9 5 . 11 6 . 12 7 2013/2019/2019 . 13 8 2019Q4 HSFO V.S. LSFO/LS MGO. 13 9 2018 . 13 10 2018 . 13 11 . 15 12 . 15 13 2020-2024 . 19 14 . 20 15 CLG LC LSFO . 21 16 IMO 2020 . 22 17 . 24 18 2017 . 24 19 . 26 1 . 4 2 . 6 3 . 10 4 0.5% . 16 5 0.5% -2.0% . 16 6 2.0% . 17 7 2017-2020 . 18 8 . 20 9 . 20 10 . 25 11 . 27 4 / 30Table_PageTop 1. IMO 2020 1.1. 1.1.1. IMO IMO1959 1 620 80 IMO1999 IMOMEPC1.1.2. IMO 2020 MEPC1988MARPOL73/78 19972005 5 19 2006MARPOL “ ”41 2006 5 1957 44.8 2005/33/EC1999/32/EC 2006 8 111.5% 2005 7 MARPOL 73/7862 457 44.8 5 48 302007 11 22 2005/33/EC 1999/32/EC2007 8 11 2010 3 MARPOL 73/78 2012 811% 2015 1 15 / 30Table_PageTop 0.1% 20050 2011 1 1MARPOL 73/78 13 2016 1 12010 6 2014 1 11 IMO 2016 10 27 IMO MEPC 702020 1 1 0.5%m/m2018 10 MEPC 732020 1 1 0.5%m/m0.1%m/m 2020 3 1A. B.C. D. IMO 2020MARPOL VI 13698% 6 / 30Table_PageTop 2 2012-01-01 3.5% 2020-01-01 0.5% 2010-07-01 1.0% 2015-01-01 0.1% 2012-08-01 1.0% 2015-01-01 0.1% 2014-01-01 1.0% 2015-01-01 0.1% * 2010-01-01 0.1% 24 2009-07-01 1.5%* 0.5%* 2012-08-01 1.0%* 0.5%* 2014-01-01 0.1% * 2 * ISO 8217 . F DMA * ISO 8217 DMB 1.1.3. IMO 2020 MARPOL 13698% IMO 2020 IMOIMO 2020 IMOEmission Control Area ECA IMO 20201 MARPOL VI 180.1% 2 MARPOL VI 183 7 / 30Table_PageTop iii Iii0.1% IMO 20202019 1 1 0.5%2019 10 25 2020IMO 8 / 30Table_PageTop 2. IMO 2020 2017 540 / 6.53 / Wood MackenzieHSFO 70% 350/ 6.5 2 / MGO 25%140 / 7 7300 /3.5% LSFO LNG 2 2016 70% Wood Mackenzie 14% 11% 20194800 / 15% 9 / 30Table_PageTop 3 Wood Mackenzie 201723%10% 8% 35000 4 2016 1 10 / 30Table_PageTop 2 3 2.1. 81.580%0.5%LNG3 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LNG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2.1.1. 17%