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Technology and the future of jobsXGlobal Employment Trends for Youth 2020Global Employment Trends for Youth 2020 Technology and the future of jobsInternational Labour Office bullet.case GenevaTechnology and the future of jobsXGlobal Employment Trends for Youth 2020Copyright International Labour Organization 2020First published 2020Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: rightsilo. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications.Libraries, institutions and other users registered with reproduction rights organizations may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit ifrro to find the reproduction rights organization in your country.Global Employment Trends for Youth 2020: Technology and the future of jobs International Labour Office Geneva: ILO, 2020ISBN 978-92-2-133505-4 (print)ISBN 978-92-2-133506-1 (web pdf)youth employment / youth unemployment / labour market analysis / labour force participation / employment policy / developed countries / developing countries / future of work13.01.3The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or terri-tory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers.The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them.Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorse-ment by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at ilo/publnsProduced by the Publications Production Unit (PRODOC) of the ILO. Graphic and typographic design, manuscript preparation, copy-editing, layout and composition, proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution. The ILO endeavours to use paper sourced from forests managed in an environmentally sustainable and socially responsible manner. Code: DTP-CORREDIT-PMSERVCover photo: iStock/svetikd3Preface The ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work, adopted by ILO constituents on the occasion of the Centenary of the International Labour Organization (June 2019), calls upon the ILO to direct its efforts to, inter alia, “developing effective polic ies aimed at generating full, productive and freely chosen employment and decent work opportunities for all, and in particular facilitating the transition from education and training to work, with an emphasis on the effective integration of young people into the world of work”. The 2020 edition of the Global Employment Trends for Youth seeks to inform the design and implementation of such policies based on an update of key youth labour market indica- tors and in-depth assessments of trends and issues in the world of work facing young women and men.The report also comes at a critical juncture. As part of efforts to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 8 to “promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all”, the international community was called upon to, by 2020, (i) substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment, education or training (NEET); and (ii) develop and operationalize a global strategy for youth employment. As this report shows, at the start of a new decade, the target to meaningfully reduce the proportion of youth NEET will be missed, highlighting the need to redouble efforts to generate decent jobs for the next generation of workers. Furthermore, youth labour markets around the world face a number of important challenges: the global economy remains sluggish as geopolitical tensions, social unrest and global trade barriers have dragged on growth. Recent epidemics carry the potential to further slow economic activity. These developments are particularly detrimental to youth as their employment prospects, relative to older workers, are more sensitive to economic downturns.This edition of the Global Employment Trends for Youth focuses on the impact of tech- nological advances on youth labour markets. It analyses both opportunities and risks for youth in terms of job destruction and creation, the use of digital technology to improve labour market programmes, and sharing productivity gains. Policy responses to address the potential risks are also explored. I hope this report will be a valuable tool in shaping a future of work with full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people.Sangheon LeeDirectorEmployment Policy DepartmentiStock/Vladimir Vladimirov5Contents Preface .Acknowledgements .Abbreviations .Executive summary .1. Global and regional trends in youth employment .1.1 The youth labour force participation rate is decreasing globally .1.2 The share of young people in employment is also declining .1.3 Youth enrolment in education shows positive trends .1.4 Youth unemployment rates are stable but remain higher than those for adults1.5 The potential of young people is not being fully harnessed .1.6 Employment quality challenges persist .1.7 Technology is transforming labour market opportunities for young people but also presenting them with new challenges .Chapter references .2. Jobs for young people in an evolving technological landscape .2.1 Technological advances can both mitigate and exacerbate the employmentchallenges faced by young people .2.2 Technological anxieties are often more pronounced among the young .2.3 Labour market impacts of technological advances differ across age groups .2.4 Risk of automation is highest in jobs held by young people .2.5 Higher education provides entry to less automatable jobs, while vocationaltraining is associated with more automatable jobs .2.6 Automatable jobs are associated with subsequently more difficult labourmarket transitions, particularly for young people .2.7 Skill-related alternatives to automatable occupations are themselves at risk .2.8 New policies are required to ensure a bright future of work for young women and men .Chapter references .3. Occupational changes and the role of public employment services in helping young people to navigate the labour market .3.1 Shifts in occupational demand for entry-level jobs . 3.2 Impact of digital technology on public employment services .3.3 Certain challenges need to be tackled in the adoption of new technologies by public employment services .3.4 Conclusions .Chapter references .31112132024262833363949505254545962687074787982849210110210364. Unequal distribution of the benefits of technological change among young people .4.1 Technological change can lead to greater inequality .4.2 Wage inequalities are particularly pronounced among the young .4.3 Returns to education have decreased in recent years .4.4 The level of educational attainment has a strong influence on NEET rates in most but not all subregions .4.5 Policy messages .Chapter references .5. Policy implications: Preparing a better future for young people .5.1 New technologies present both risks and opportunities in the creation of decent jobs for young people .5.2 New technologies have the potential to enhance the support provided to young people .5.3 Involvement of young people in social dialogue is essential .Chapter references .Appendix A. Regional, country and income groupings .Appendix B. ILO modelled estimates and projections .Appendix C. Additional tables .Appendix D. Methodology used to estimate the risk of automation of jobs .Appendix E. Labour Force Micro Database .Appendix F. Meta-information on Burning Glass Technologies data .List of boxes1.1 YouthSTATS: A new database on youth in the labour market . 1.2 The school-to-work transition for youth in Latin America and the Caribbean . 1.3 Investing in young peoples skills and education is critical to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals . 1.4 Finding the first job in times of crisis . 1.5 Informality in the Southern African Development Community . 1.6 Youth migration: The desire to migrate and its implications for the labour market .2.1 Structural transformation and young workers . 2.2 Robots and youth employment . 2.3 Job-to-job transitions among young workers in Europe and the United States 2.4 Gas plant operators, skill-related occupations and the risk of automation .3.1 Most frequently advertised jobs and skills shifts in the private sector in India . 3.2 Moroccos digital strategy for the promotion of youth employment .3.3 The innovation lab at Frances public employment service .4.1 Demand for and supply of young workers with a tertiary education before and after the global financial crisis .106108109111115122123124126129132134138140148174178184242931344048586066778898100120Global Employment Trends for Youth 20207List of figures1.1 Overview of the global labour market for youth, 2019 .1.2 Change in female and male labour force participation rates, by age group and subregion, 19992019 (percentage points) . 1.3 Employment and educational status of young people in Latin America and the Caribbean by age, selected countries, 2018 (thousands) .1.4 Share of youth population in education, global and by region and sex, latest available year (percentages) . 1.5 Share of 1524-year-olds enrolled in vocational education, global and by subregion and sex, 2018 (percentages) . 1.6 Youth unemployment rate by duration of unemployment spell (percentages) and average duration of unemployment spell (months), selected countries, 200018 .1.7 Ratio of youth-to-adult unemployment rate, global and by subregion, 2019 . 1.8 Youth NEET rates, global and by subregion and sex, 2005 and 2019 (percentages) .1.9 Youth and adult informality rates, global and by subregion, 2016 (percentages) . 1.10 Employment status of youth and adult workers, global and by subregion, 2019 (percentages) .1.11 Percentage change (annualized) in the prevalence of own-account and contributing family work among young people and adults before and after the global economic crisis of 200708, selected countries . 1.12 Working poverty (extreme and moderate) among young people and adults, global and by country income group, 19912023 index = 100 in base year, 1991 .
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