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2020 State Export Report Goods and Services Exports by US States to China Over the Past Decade | April 2020 US-China Business Council 0 April 2020 2020 State Export Report Goods and Services Exports by US States to China Over the Past Decade | April 2020 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Goods Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Services Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Exports and US Jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appendix: State Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4 5 11 17 19 20 With many thanks to our sponsors: US-China Business Council 1 April 2020 Executive Summary Over the past two years, tariffs and an uncertain business environment have prompted precipitous declines in US exports to China that have not been fully made up by export growth to other markets. For the second year in a row, US goods exports to China fell. Services exports to China grew in 2018 the latest available year of data but at roughly the same slow pace as 2017. Despite these challenges, exports to China continued to be important to US economic growth, supporting just under one million jobs. Goods exports to China have fallen to their lowest level since 2011. US goods exports to China contracted 11.4 percent in 2019 to $104.8 billion after contracting by more than 7 percent the year prior. Only two fifths of states saw growth in goods exports to China last year. Services exports to China have plateaued. Services exports to China have been one of the remarkable highlights of US export expansion, growing 230 percent in the past decade of available data. Yet from 2016 to 2018, services exports to China grew at just 2 percent on average, compared to more than 18 percent on average from 2009 to 2016. However, China still managed to be the third-largest market for US goods and services exporters. Despite frictions and tariffs, China is still a top market for US exporters, reflecting the important commercial opportunity it presents to American businesses. Only USMCA partners Canada and Mexico bought more goods from the United States last year. For services, China remained the third-largest export market after the United Kingdom and Canada. Exports to China impact nearly all US states in a wide range of industries. China was a top five goods export destination for 42 states in 2019. Many states generate substantial economic value from service exports, from licensing royalties to tourist spending. In 2019, the top US goods exports to China included aerospace products and parts, semiconductors and components, and oilseeds and grains. Phase One trade commitments could result in a spike in exports. If China meets its commitments to significantly increase purchases of US goods in the next two years, agreed to in the Phase One trade deal reached in early 2020, there could be a sharp uptick in exports this year. US-China Business Council 2 April 2020 Goods Exports US goods exports to China declined last year. In 2019, the United States exported just under $105 billion in goods to China. The decline in 2019 marks a continued slide from a high point in 2017, when American firms sent a total of $127 billion worth of goods to the China market, resulting in a two-year contraction of 18 percent. The declines are at least in part the result of US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs enacted by China. Growth in US goods exports to China over the last decade now trails US export growth to the rest of the world. US goods exports to China increased at a rate of only 16 percent over the last decade, while exports to the rest of the world grew 29 percent over the same period. Services Exports US services exports to China continued to grow at a sluggish pace in 2018, the latest year of full data. Growth of US services exports to China had already fallen to 2.3 percent in 2017, and that growth fell to an even more anemic 1.6 percent in 2018. Growth in the United States s top two markets outstripped expansion to China, as the United Kingdom and Canada chalked up six and 10 percent growth, respectively. Still, when viewed over the last decade, the picture is less bleak US services exports to China have grown a whopping 230 percent from 2009 to 2018, more than any other top market. $90.4 $103.0 $108.9 $119.8 $121.4 $114.0 $113.8 $127.8 $118.3 $104.8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Goods Exports to China ($ billions) $16.8 $22.2 $28.0 $32.5 $37.0 $43.7 $47.6 $53.2 $54.4 $55.3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Services Exports to China ($ billions)US-China Business Council 3 April 2020 Exports and US Jobs Exports to China continue to be an important stabilizer of jobs in the United States. US exports to China support over one thousand jobs in all but one US state, and over ten thousand jobs in 30 states. Falling exports to China have negatively impacted job numbers. While in 2017, combined goods and services exports to China supported over 1.1 million jobs across the country, in 2018, the number fell to under one million. Impact of Trade Frictions on States Only half of states exported more goods to China in 2019 than they did in 2010, and only 20 states exported more in 2019 than they did in 2018. While some states like South Carolina have become success stories, others have seen sharp declines over the past two years. Missouri, for example, sold between $1.5 and $2 billion of goods to China each year between 2010 and 2017, but that value fell below $1 billion in 2018, rebounding only slightly in 2019. Washington state had sold more than $11 billion of goods to China every year since 2013, but exports to China fell to just over $5 billion last year. Trade disputes affected the overall value of exports to China. In 2017, 30 states exported more than $1 billion of goods to China; in 2019, only 27 states were able to do so. In 2017 and 2018, only 15 states managed to export more than $1 billion in services to China. Policies affecting travel and student visas may result in lower numbers for 2019. China remains among the top five goods and services export markets for most states. China was among the top five goods markets for 42 states. In services, China was the top market for 8 states in 2018, and a top five market for 49 states. US-China Business Council 3 April 2020 US-China Business Council 4 April 2020 Methodology This year s edition of the US-China Business Council (USCBC) State Export Report uses data provided by The Trade Partnership, an economic research firm. The report provides a separate breakdown of each US state s goods and services exports to China. The national export totals include the export data for each state. Goods export figures are based primarily on data from the US Census Bureau, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Moody s Analytics. Goods export figures are classified according to the US government s North American Industry Classification (NAICS) system. Services export figures are based primarily on data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Moody s Analytics. Services export figures are classified according to the BEA categories. This year s edition of the State Export Report uses the same sector categories for both goods and services as last year s edition. Goods exports cover 2010-2019; services exports cover 2009-2018, the most recent year detailed services export data are available from BEA. As historical data from each of these sources are revised annually, this issue of the State Exports Report replaces all prior editions. Similar to previous editions of the State Export Report, this report uses a methodology that credits agricultural exports to states where crops are grown as opposed to states with large ports where bulk commodities are aggregated prior to export. Average annual growth is calculated with an AAGR formula. A detailed explanation of the methodology for jobs, goods, and services export estimates is available on The Trade Partnership s website. US-China Business Council 5 April 2020 Top US Goods Export Markets, 2019 Top US Goods Exports to China, 2019 1. Canada $281.1 billion Aerospace Products & Parts $10.5 billion 2. Mexico $248.3 billion Semiconductors & Components $9.8 billion 3. China $104.8 billion Oilseeds & Grains $8.3 billion 4. Japan $72.8 billion Motor Vehicles $7.1 billion 5. United Kingdom $62.5 billion Nav. & Meas. Instruments $5.8 billion Goods Exports $90.4 $103.0 $108.9 $119.8 $121.4 $114.0 $113.8 $127.8 $118.3 $104.8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 US Goods Exports to China ($ billions) Growth in total US goods exports 2010-2019 Exports to China: 16.0% Exports to Rest of World: 29.3% US-China Business Council 6 April 2020 Goods Exports to China Declined for a Myriad of Reasons While tariffs and uncertainty in the business environment hampered US exports to China, other factors at the state level were also at play. Some states saw declines in exports to China due to the losses of a single company or because of shifting trade patterns that are not directly tied to US- China trade disputes. Washington (-$9.05 billion) In 2018, Washington state sold a total of $11.4 billion in aerospace products and parts to China. Last year, that number declined to $2.8 billion. This loss can be attributed to major headwinds faced by manufacturing supply chains, affecting both component suppliers and other related industries that operate throughout the state. Goods Exports Change 2018-2019 ($ billions) US-China Business Council 7 April 2020 Texas (-$5.41 billion) Unlike Washington, Texas has been directly hit by US-China tariffs, forcing companies to seek billion last year, with a sharp decline in oil and gas exports comprising the bulk of the losses. China -largest export market to only its seventh-largest, primarily due to retaliatory tariffs from China targeting liquified natural gas and crops like sorghum and cotton. While Texas has increased its overall exports to other markets, particularly, South Korea and Brazil, the loss of access to the China market could have a long-lasting impact on Texas exporters. Limited access to a consistently expanding market like China could negatively affect job growth in the future. North and South Carolina (+$1 billion and +$88 million, respectively) Both of the Carolinas saw roughly a $1 billion increase in goods exports to China in 2019. For South Carolina, the growth in exports is mostly attributable to a spike in goods sent to China, especially in exports of $1.4 billion was predominantly the result of a concurrent $1 billion growth in exports to the China market driven by sales of pharmaceuticals and medicines. Iowa and other dominantly agricultural states d significantly due to retaliatory tariffs on a range of agricultural products. In 2019, the state managed to claw back some of those losses, with Iowa farmers and producers sending $1 billion worth of oilseeds and grains and around $200 million of meat pr -2017 levels, a reduction in certain retaliatory tariffs have helped agriculture-producing states recoup losses. Both second-largest export market more than doubled last year as sales of oilseeds and grains jumped back up. US-China Business Council 7 April 2020 US-China Business Council 8 April 2020 Top US Goods Export Markets in 2019 Country Total ($ billion) Growth (2018-2019) Avg. Annual Growth (2010-2019) 1. Canada $282.1 -3.3% 1.89% 2. Mexico $248.3 -3.4% 5.41% 3. China $104.8 -11.4% 2.03% 4. Japan $72.8 -0.8% 2.69% 5. United Kingdom $62.5 5.1% 4.42% 6. Germany $57.1 4.8% 2.53% 7. South Korea $55.8 0.8% 4.78% 8. Netherlands $49.8 5.4% 4.87% 9. Brazil $42.0 9.0% 3.21% 10. France $35.3 4.5% 3.97% Despite a strained trade relationship with the United States in 2019, China remained the United States s third-largest export market. In 2019, US goods exports to China totaled roughly $105 billion, more than 11 percent lower than in 2018. While goods exports to China had been growing at an average annual rate of 6.3 percent since 2011, exports actually contracted at an average rate of 2.6 percent from 2015 on, despite an uptick in 2017. Hong Kong is often a through point for US exports ultimately destined for China. This was reflected in a dramatic 16.2 percent decline in exports to Hong Kong, knocking it off of the top 10 list. In 2019, combined US exports to Hong Kong and China totaled $133.7 billion, down from a combined $152.7 billion in 2018. US-China Business Council 9 April 2020 Growth in US Goods Exports to Top 10 Markets, 2010-2019 Over the past decade, US exports to China have risen by 16 percent. However, compared to the rest of the United States s top 10 trade partners, goods exports to China had the lowest 10-year growth rate. The decrease in ten-year goods exports growth to China is attributable to sharp declines in the past two years. Average annual growth from 2010 to 2017 was 5.3 percent before falling to -9.4 percent from 2017 to 2019. Note: Growth rates are based on goods export data for 2010 and 2019 for the United States s top 10 markets for goods exports. Rest of World export growth for this page is calculated using the cumulative sums for US exports to all remaining markets (excluding top-10 markets) for those years. 57.4% 48.7% 48.4% 41.1% 40.8% 24.8% 24.5% 21.6%
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