油运专题报告：短期回调，中期高景气延续.pdf

Table_MainInfo Table_Title / Table_Summary 123-412 1-31990 2020VLCC VLCC1-3 20214.5-5 /2021 Table_CompanyFinance EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 6.35 0.09 0.80 0.75 70.56 7.94 8.47 5.60 0.24 0.70 0.58 23.33 8.00 9.66 Table_Invest Table_PicQuote -22%-16%-10%-4%2%2019/72019/82019/92019/102019/112019/122020/12020/22020/32020/42020/52020/6Table_Trend % 1M 3M 12M 4.99% 7.45% -12.94% -3.24% -6.72% -20.69% Table_IndustryMarket 117 24659 17346 12.46 1.21 27738 1392 % 55.72 Table_Report 52020-06-16 540% 2020-06-07 2020-06-06 2020-05-24 Table_Author S0550515110002 (021)20363212 quyznesc 2020-07-02 2 / 31Table_PageTop 1. . 52. . 62.1. . 62.2. “ ” . 72.3. . 103. . 113.1. . 123.2. . 154. . 165. . 195.1. . 195.2. . 216. . 227. . 238. . 259. . 261 2020 VLCC . 42 . 73 . 74 OECD . 85 . 96 . 107 VLCC TOP3 . 108 .1110 OECD .1111 . 1212 . 1313 OPEC OECD . 1314 . 143 / 31Table_PageTop 15 . 1416 VLCC . 1517 VLCC . 1618 VLCC . 1619 VLCC . 1620 VLCC OECD . 1721 VLCC OECD . 1722 VLCC . 1823 1 . 1924 2 . 1925 . 2026 . 2127 . 2128 VLCC . 2129 . 2130 . 2231 . 2232 VLCC . 2333 VLCC . 2634 BDTI . 2635 1 . 2736 . 2737 OPEC . 2838 . 2839 . 2940 VLCC . 291 . 92 . 93 “ ” . 104 . 185 . 196 . 204 / 31Table_PageTop 202010 / 6 /325/ 4 23Contango 4/1 2020 VLCC Clarksons Wind 5 / 31Table_PageTop 1. 1990 2020 30VLCC VLCCVLCCVLCC VLCCQ3 Q3 Q420211 2Q36 / 31Table_PageTop 122021 2019IMO2020 432. 2.1. 7 / 31Table_PageTop 2 IEA EIA 3 12 2.2. 8 / 31Table_PageTop OECD11 1996 3 -1998 9 OECD12% 1998 10 2000 3 2000 3 2003 3 2000 3 2002 7OECD 2003 3 2000 3 2003 2 2006 9 OECD 200610 2008 2 2008 3 2010 8 OECD 2011 12OECD 2014 2016 8 2017 22018 6 2020 34 OECD OPEC 9 / 31Table_PageTop 5 EIA 163-4116 1 1998 10 -2003 3 3874.58 13 2002 7 -2003 3 3941.68 3 2006 10 -2008 2 4023.25 14 2010 8 -2011 12 4207.68 12 2017 2 -2018 6 13 Clarksons 2 1998 10 -2003 3 4124.77 3750.4 17 2002 7 -2003 3 3996.76 3749.86 8 2006 10 -2008 2 4281.28 4086.24 14 2010 8 -2011 12 4354.39 4126.45 16 2017 2 -2018 6 4373.31 16 OPEC 10 / 31Table_PageTop 2.3. OECD+125OECDVLCC90% OPEC+5 87% OPEC3 3 6 4 9 OPEC+ 5 1 6 6 7 VLCC TOP3