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The New Physics of Financial ServicesPart of the Future of Financial Services series | Prepared in collaboration with DeloitteAugust 2018Understanding how artificial intelligence is transforming the financial ecosystemThe New Physics of Financial Services | 1Foreword Introductions1 Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (a UK private company limited by guarantee “DTTL”), its network of member firms and their related entities. DTTL and each of itsmember firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL, also referred to as “Deloitte Global”, does not provide services to clients. Please see deloitte/about for a more detaileddescription of DTTL and its member firms. Please see deloitte/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be availableto attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.This publication contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax or other professional advice or services.This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking anyaction that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this publication.Cover image credit: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)Consistent with the World Economic Forums mission of applying a multistakeholder approach to address issues of global impact, creating this report involved extensive outreach and dialogue with numerous organizations and individuals. They included the Forums Financial Services, Innovation and Technology communities, and professionals from academia and the public sector. The outreach involved over 200 interviews and six international workshop sessions, encouraging collaborative dialogue to discuss insights and opportunities concerning the impact of artificial intelligence within the financial services industry.The holistic and global content of this report would not be as rich without the support of, and contributions from, the subject matter experts who assisted in shaping our thoughts about the future of the impact of AI on the future of the financial services industry. In particular, we thank this projects Steering Committee and Working Group, who played an invaluable role with their expertise and patient mentorship. Also critical has been the ongoing institutional support for this initiative from the World Economic Forum and the leadership of our chairman, whose vision of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been inspirational to this work.Finally, we are grateful to Deloitte Consulting LLP in the United States, an entity within the Deloitte1 network, for its generous commitment and support in its capacity as the official professional services adviser to the World Economic Forum for this project.For feedback or questions, please contact:R. Jesse McWaters, Lead Authorjesse.mcwatersweforum+1 (646) 623 4500ContactThe New Physics of Financial Services | 2Editors noteIntroductions(2015) (2016) (2016) (2017)Artificial intelligence is a critical aspect of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and has emerged as a clear focus of discussions at the World Economic Forums Annual Meeting over the past few years. Financial institutions around the world are making large-scale investments in AI, while governments and regulators seek to grapple with the significant uncertainties and growing public trepidation as AI becomes central to the fabric of institutions and markets.The World Economic Forum has a successful track record of providing detailed multistakeholder analysis of the changing landscape of the financial ecosystem, particularly through our Future of Financial Services series. It was clear that a similar approach could cut through the sensationalism surrounding AI to provide valuable insights for the private sector and policy-makers alike.Over the past year, we have engaged in what may be the largest study of its kind into AI in financial services, and through this process we have discovered that the long-term impacts of AI may be even more radical and transformative than we first imagined. Indeed, the central thrust of the document that follows is that the very fabric of the financial services ecosystem has entered a period of reorganization, catalysed in large part by the capabilities and requirements of AI.Our hope is that this document helps you and your institution make informed decisions about how to interpret the evolving role of AI in financial services and navigate the turbulent changes on the horizon.With regards, R. Jesse McWatersProject Lead, Future of AI in Financial ServicesWorld Economic ForumPast reports from the Future of Financial Services SeriesRob GalaskiGlobal Leader, Banking Head of Strategy and Innovation, Deutsche Bank Max Neukirchen Head of Strategy, JP Morgan ChaseNick Cafferillo Chief Technology Officer,S&P Global Solmaz Altin Chief Digital Officer,Allianz SEPierre-Olivier Boue Chief Operating Officer, Credit Suisse Robert Contri Global Financial Services Leader, Deloitte Vanessa Colella Head of Citi Ventures & Chief Innovation Officer, CitiJuan Colombas Chief Operating Officer, Lloyds Banking Group Rob Goldstein Chief Operating Officer,BlackRock David Craig President, Financial & Risk, Thomson Reuters Alain DeschnesSenior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, PSP InvestmentsRakshit Kapoor Group Chief Data Officer,HSBCAshwin Kumar Group Head of Product Development, Deutsche Brse AG Prof. Dr Axel P. Lehmann President Personal & Corporate Banking, UBSKush Saxena Chief Technology Officer,Mastercard Michael Zerbs Chief Technology Officer,Scotiabank The New Physics of Financial Services | 4Members of the Working GroupWorking GroupBeth DevinHead of Innovation Network,Citi Secil ArslanHead of R&D Special Projects and AI / ML, Yapi KrediTim Baker Global Head of Innovation, Financial & Risk, Thomson Reuters Roland Fejfar Executive Director FinTech IBD,Morgan Stanley Gero GunkelGroup Head of Artificial Intelligence,Zurich InsuranceWei-Lin Lee Senior Director, Strategy and Growth, PayPal Jim Psota Co-Founder & Chief Technology Officer, Panjiva (S&P Global) Lena Mass-Cresnik, PhdBlackRockJuan MartinezManaging Director America and UK Region, SWIFTJennifer Peve Co-Head of FinTech Strategy,DTCC Michael ORourke Head of Machine Intelligence and Data Services, NASDAQ Annika Schrder AI Program Lead, Group Innovation, UBSNicolas de Skowronski Head of Advisory Excellence, Deputy Head, Investment Solution Group, Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd Chadwick WestlakeSenior Vice President, Structural Cost Transformation & Lean, Scotiabank Milos Krstajic Data Scientist at Allianz Group, Allianz SE The New Physics of Financial Services | 5Members of the Project TeamProject TeamProject LeadershipThe Future of AI in Financial Services project leadership team includes the following individuals:World Economic Forum LLCR. Jesse McWaters, Lead Author, Project LeadMatthew Blake, Head of Financial and Monetary System InitiativeProfessional Services Leadership from DeloitteRob Galaski, CoAuthor, Project AdviserProject AuthorsThe World Economic Forum expresses its gratitude tothe following individuals on the project team:Deloitte CanadaCourtney Kidd Chubb, Senior Manager Denizhan Uykur, Senior ConsultantSpecial thanks for contributions from:Alexandra Blickling, AllianzThorsten Mnch, Deutsche BrseAdditional thanksThe project team expresses gratitude to the following individuals for their contributions andsupport:Emma BartonGabriel BrassardKerry ButtsAlexandra DurbakMaha EltobgyNadia GuillotTiffany HartAbel LeeJenny PanAlexandra RomicSiddhant SachdevSteven SiegelElaine SmithHemanth SoniFerdina YarzadaHan YikPreface157 Acknowledgements7 Context and approachBackground17 The new physics of financial servicesExecutive summaryChapters22 How will AI reshape financial services?Key findings55 What are the opportunities and challenges for implementingAI in financial services today? Opportunities, challenges and broader societal implications85 How is AI being deployed by sectors of financial services? Sector explorations142 How might the continued evolution of AI affect thefuture of financial services? Selected “what if?” scenarios for the long-term implications of AI for financial services 153 Concluding thoughtsNext steps for the financial services ecosystemTable of contents155 Additional ReadingContext and approachThe New Physics of Financial Services | 8Cloud storage and processing 2006 Amazon Web Services (AWS) launches5Unlike past AI Springs, the science and practice of AI appears poised to continue an unprecedented multi-decade run of advancement Context and approach | History of AI1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 Present With funding from sources such as DARPA, academics lead a boom in AI research Newell and Simons General Problem Solver Joseph Weizenbaums ELIZA Lack of computing power limits the progress of AI technologies, drying up funding John Hopfield and David Rumelhart popularize “deep learning” techniques Japanese government invests $400 million in AI and related technology Chess grand master Garry Kasparov is defeated by IBMs Deep Blue Dragon Systems speech recognition software is implemented on Windows Stanford robot wins the DARPA Grand Challenge7 Geoffrey Hinton and others repopularize“backpropagation” for deep belief nets8 2009 Google Brain uses GPUs to create capable deep neural nets9 Alan Turing publishes Computing Machinery and Intelligence, which posits a logical framework on how to build “intelligent” machines and test their intelligence (the Imitation Game) 2011 Apple releases Siri, the first modern “virtual assistant” 2016 Google Deepminds AlphaGo, trained using “reinforcement learning”, defeats Lee Sedol on a game of Go10 Transfer learning: Current AI technologies lack the ability of “abstraction”, which is the ability to take lessons from one area and apply them to another Efficient deep learning: Deep learning shows promise in reducing the effort required to train models by automating feature extraction. However, heavy data requirements make these techniques impractical for common uses. New developments will increase the efficiency of these algorithms Unstructured learning: In the pursuit of general intelligence, advancements in reinforcement learning and other simulation-based modelling techniques are opening up new areas in which AI can be used Technology advancement: Enabling technologies have provided both the data and the access to cheap processing power that was lacking in past AI winters Talent and focus: AI development today is being led by technologists rather than academics. Beyond just proofs of concept or trials, software engineers are building real apps for the real world, leading to myriad successful-use cases across the economy Leadership and investment: Big technology firms, with immediate-term profitability requirements, are betting heavily on AI, demonstrating the belief that these technologies will improve profitabilityWhats next on the horizon? What is different now?Big data1998 John Mashey popularizes the term “big data”4“Internet of Things”20082009 More “things or objects” than people are now connected to the internet6Semiconductor microprocessors1971 Intel launches the Intel 4004 chip, known as the first commercially available microprocessor3Mainframes1953 IBM unveils the IBM 701 “Defense Calculator” mainframe2AI spring AI spring AI springAI winter AI winterScience fictionAI development over time1The New Physics of Financial Services | 9The public discourse on AI in financial services is highly sensationalized, creating an excess of both exuberance and fearContext and approach | Focus on AIRobots Could Steal 40% of Jobs14Sensationalism risks dampening the benefits that AI could bring to financial services, while exacerbating the harmsTremendous excitement is driving todays “artificial intelligence moment”However, this excitement is also coupled with significant uncertaintyAI investing could be the next crisis$10 billionInvestment in AI by financial institutions by 202012Tepid but significant investment from financial institutions76%of banking CXOs agree that adopting AI will be critical to their organizations ability to differentiate in the market13A top priority for financial service executivesSustained and strong investment growth48% CAGRGlobal cross-sector growth in AI investment through 202111Significant cross-industry investment$58 billionGlobal AI investment by 202111
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