政策“退潮”的历史复盘.pdf

1 / 12 2020 12 08 -2021 -2020.12.2 - -2020.12.1 - -2020.12.1 zhaowei1kysec S0790520060002 yangfei1kysec S0790520070004 daixiaodikysec S0790120070025 2021 2008 3 2008 2014 2020 2009 2016 2020 4 2020 2010 2011 CPI 2017 2018 PPI 2010 2011 2017 2018 2010 2011 35% 20% 2017 2018 -10% 13% 2020 2010 2017 2011 2018 2010 2017 2009 2010 4 2016 2017 2 / 12 1 . 3 2 “ . 5 3 . 8 4 . 10 5 . 10 1 2008 3 . 3 2 . 4 3 2009 7 1 . 4 4 2016 . 4 5 . 5 6 ” “ ” . 6 7 . 7 8 2017 PPI . 7 9 CPI 3% . 7 10 ” . 8 11 . 8 12 2010 2017 . 8 13 . 9 14 . 9 15 . 9 1 2013 . 5 3 / 12 2021 1 2008 3 2008 2014 2020 2009 2016 2020 4 2011 2018 1 2008 3 Wind 2020 1-4 2009 / GDP -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) (%) (MA5) ( ) 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % % SHIBOR3 1 ( ) 4 / 12 2 Wind 2009 7 1 2010 1 2011 2016 2016 8 2018 2020 5 3 2009 7 1 4 2016 Wind Wind 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) (%) ( ) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2004-01 2004-06 2004-11 2005-04 2005-09 2006-02 2006-07 2006-12 2007-05 2007-10 2008-03 2008-08 2009-01 2009-06 2009-11 2010-04 2010-09 2011-02 2011-07 2011-12 (%) ( ) (1Y, ) (1Y, ) 7 1 0 2 4 6 8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) R007 DR007 7 7 SLF 5 / 12 2008 2011 MLF 5 1 2013 Wind 2 “ 40% 20% 0% 2010 2011 2011 30% 2010 20% 2017 2018 2017 2010 2017 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) (%) ( ) 年份 创新工具 2013 年 常备借贷便利(SLF), 短期流动性调节工具 (SLO) 2014 年 中期借贷便利(MLF), 补充抵押贷款(PSL), 2015 年 资产抵押再贷款,MPA 考核 2017 年 临时流动性便利(TLF) 2018 年 民企融资支持工具, 扩大中期借贷便利（MLF ） 担保品范围, 临时准备金动用安排(CRA) 2019 年 定向中期借贷便利(TMLF), 央票互换(CBS) 2020 年 普惠小微企业贷款延期支持工具，普惠小微企 业信用贷款支持计划 6 / 12 6 Wind 2010 2011 2017 2018 2010 2011 35% 20% 2017 2018 - 10% 13% 2020 2020 1-4 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 MA5( ) -6 -1 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % (%) (MA5, ) ( ) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % (%) ( ) ( ) 7 / 12 7 Wind 2010 CPI PPI 2017 2020 CPI PPI 2010 2011 CPI PPI CPI 2% 6% 2017 PPI CPI 2020 CPI 5% PPI 8 2017 PPI 9 CPI 3% Wind Wind 2020 1-4 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46