资源描述
1 / 29 2021 01 14 S0790519100001 S0790520010001 S0790120070082 E/E ECU ECU Model 3 E/E ECU E/E SoC AI QNX Linux 昇 FSD AI Tier1 AI Tier1 + Mobileye+ + + + + +2 / 29 1 . 4 1.1 ECU . 4 1.2 . 5 1.2.1 E/E Tier1 . 6 1.2.2 E/E . 10 2 . 11 2.1 SoC AI . 12 2.1.1 “CPU+XPU” SoC . 12 2.1.2 AI . 13 2.2 . 15 3 . 17 3.1 . 17 3.1.1 昇 AI +MDC + OS . 17 3.1.2 FSD AI +HW +Autopilot . 19 3.1.3 Mobileye EyeQ ADAS . 19 3.2 . 20 3.2.1 . 21 3.2.2 AI . 22 3.2.3 QNX . 24 4 . 25 4.1 P7+ . 25 4.2 . 25 4.3 5G . 26 4.4 . 26 5 . 27 1 ECU CPU / . 4 2 ECU . 5 3 E/E “ / ” “ + ECU” . 6 4 Tier1 E/E . 6 5 . 7 6 2020 ECU/DCU 155.9 . 8 7 2025 1300 . 8 8 . 10 9 . 10 10 . 10 11 + Central Zone . 10 12 SV A . 11 13 . 12 14 ECU CPU . 123 / 29 15 DCU GPU . 12 16 SoC GPU/FPGA/ASIC CPU . 13 17 SoC 2020-2025 CAGR 15.4% . 13 18 zFAS SoC . 14 19 AI 7 7 . 14 20 AI . 14 21 CR8 63% . 15 22 . 15 23 AGL . 16 24 2030 500 . 17 25 MDC “ ” . 18 26 AI . 19 27 2014 EyeQ3 Mobileye . 20 28 L3 . 21 29 Smart Core . 22 30 AI +Matrix . 23 31 Apollo Android . 25 1 Tier1 . 9 2 AI . 15 3 Mobileye EyeQ AI . 20 4 SmartCore . 22 5 Drive L2L5 . 23 6 . 24 7 . 274 / 29 1 1.1 ECU 70 Engine Control Unit ECU Electronic Control Unit ECU ECU CPU MCU MPU CPU DDR FLASH / I/O A/D ECU 1 CSDN 2019 ECU 25 ECU 35 A8L ECU 2013 100 ECU ECU 100 5km OTA ECU ECU ECU ECU LIN/CAN5 / 29 2 Aptiv 1.2 2017 Model3 E/E ECU E/E 2018 L3 “Central & Zone ” 2019 “CC ” + + 2020 “SV A ” + E/E E3 EEA Tier1 E/E E/E Tier1 E/E E/E “ / ” “ ECU” ECU E/E /6 / 29 3 1.2.1 Tier1 E/E CAN/LIN 4 VCU 2020 1 PDCS 2020 9 HiPhi X7 / 29 5 2020 EPS ESC ASIL-D ASIL BCM PEPS E/E GPS AI AI QNX Model3 P7 L3 ICVTank 2020 ADAS 155.9 L3 ECU 2025 19.88 / 29 6 ICVTank “ ” “ ” “ + ” ICVTank 2020 80 2025 1300 7 ICVTank 1 E/E Drive ONE MCU PDU OBC DCDC BCU 2 125.7 130.7 136 141.4 148.1 154.2 159.2 165.7 169.2 172.5 179.1 0 0 0 0 0.4 1.7 4.5 6.2 11.3 17 19.8 0 50 100 150 200 250 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E ECU DCU 40 80 240 400 690 970 1300 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 全球 智能 座舱 域控 制器 出 货量 及预 测9 / 29 NVH EMC 1 DriveCore 2018 AIphaIC SmartCore Aion LX 2020 CSLP GTC4Lusso WEY 2019 Mobileye Ottomatika ICC 2020 Auto Wheel 2017 NXP AMBARELLA Auto Cabin 2017 TTTech zFAS/iECU 2018 Aptiv MAX4 2017 Innoviz Mobileye ProAI 2018 SHI 2020 AI car computer 2017 Integrated HMI platform 2020 DCU 2017 NXP C4-Alfus 2016 ADCU 2018 IIP 2019 IPU03 2020 8 PLUS 2019 iMO DCU 2018 Mobileye ACU 2020 TITAN 2018 Xavier WiseADCU H7 2017 ADAS Domain Controller 2019 S70 201810 / 29 8 9 1.2.2 E/E Model3 ECU ECU BCM Central & Zone SV A 10 11 TOYOTA11 / 29 12 2 1 SoC AI AI AI Mobileye 2 QNX Linux Vector ETAS 3 L2.5 P7 Xavier 14 L312 / 29 13 2.1 2.1.1 ECU ECU CPU CPU GPU CPU GPU CPU GPU “CPU+GPU” CPU GPU SoC 14 15 CSDN CSDN13 / 29 “CPU+GPU” GPU FPGA ASIC FPGA GPU ASIC ASIC HIS 2020 SoC 40.12 2020-2025 CAGR 15.4% 16 AI 17 IHS 2.1.2 SoC 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E ASIC/ASSP FPGA GPU ASIC/ASSP SoC14 / 29 2017 A8 L3 zFAS SoC Mobileye EyeQ3 ASIC Tegra K1 GPU+CPU Cyclone V FPGA Aurix TC297T MCU zFAS SoC OpenAI 7 AI Alexnet AlphaGoZero 30 AI AI GPU CPU AI CPU AI SoC AI CPU AI GPU FPGA ASIC 18 19 2015 / 29 ICVTank 2019 CR8 68% MCU ICVTank 2019 12% 50 8% 36 2025 15% 102 12% 83 AI AI “ ”AI “AI + IP+ ” 2016 2019 A500 Tier1 21 22 ICVTank ICVTank 2 FSD Xavier Orin EyeQ5 2 3 A500 昇 310 TOPS 72 30 200 24 4 5 5.8 16 W 36 30 75 10 2 2.5 8 TOPS/W 2 1 1 2.4 2 2 4 2 2019 2018 2022 2018 2020 - 2020 2019 /TOPS 343 - 214 2.2 80 “ + ” ECU , 14% , 11% , 10% , 8% , 7% , 6% , 4% , 3% , 3716 / 29 AGL Linux QNX Linux Linux 23 CSDN OSEK/VDX AUTOSAR OSEK/VDX AUTOSAR Vector ETAS QNX Mentor Graphics Version VW.OS AOS/VOS17 / 29 Linux Linux AGL Windows Automotive Android Auto AliOS HOS AOS VOS Tier1 McKinsey 2020 200 2030 500 2020-2030 9% 24 McKinsey analysis 3 AI Tier1 AI Tier1 + Mobileye+ + + + + + 3.1 3.1.1 昇 以 昇 AI 昇 310 昇 910 昇 310 16TOPS 8W FSD 昇 910 512TOPS18 / 29 SoC AI CPU DVPP 昇 MDC300 MDC600 MDC300 AI 昇 310 TC397 64TOPS L3 MDC600 8 昇 310 CPU ISP 352TOPS L4 MDC 210 MDC 610 MDC 210 48TOPS L2+ MDC 610 160TOPS L3-L4 MDC Host CPU AI ISP SSD MDC 25 HOS HOS ASIL-D Security & Safety OS AUTOSAR ECU SOA AUTOSAR19 / 29 6 8 3.1.2 2014 10 Model S Model X Autopilot1 HW1.0 Mobileye EyeQ3 L2 2016 Mobileye DRIVE PX2 HW2.0 Model S Model X HW2.0 10 HW2.5 6TOPS L2L3 DRIVE PX2 Linux 2012-2019 142 OTA 11 67 64 360 2014 V6.0 V10.0 26 3.1.3 Mobileye 1999 2008 L1 Eye Q120 / 29 0.0044TOPS 2010 Eye Q2 0.026TOPS L1 2014 EyeQ3 0.256TOPS 0.1024TOPS/W L2 Mobileye 2014-2019 EyeQ CAGR 45.2% EyeQ Mobileye camera-based ADAS 70% 2017 153 27 Mobileye 3 EyeQ1 0.0044 2.5 0.0018 2008 L1 EyeQ2 0.026 2.5 0.0104 2010 L1 EyeQ3 0.256 2.5 0.1024 2014 L2 EyeQ4 2.5 3 0.83 2018 L3 EyeQ5 12 5 2.4 2020 L4L5 Mobileye Mobileye EyeQ Mobileye Mobileye L3 EyeQ Mobileye 2020 EyeQ5 EyeQ5 EyeQ5 EyeQ5 3.2 2.7 4.4 6 8.7 12.4 17.4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 EyeQ YOY21 / 29 3.2.1 (1) IPU03 2020 4 P7 IPU03 Xavier QNX Safety OS 30TOPS L3 APA Orin 2022 SUV 28 6 R-CAR QNX Hypervisor2.0 Android 9.0 OTA OK (2) 2018 3 Smart Core 2020 CES Smart Core Smart Core Aion LX Smart Core TAI Smart Core Smart Core22 / 29 Smart Core 4 8155 8195 QNX INTEGRITY IVI Android P, Linux QNX, INTEGRITY 360 8 OTA 29 3.2.2 (1) 1993 1999 AI GPU GPU CPU 2015 DRIVE PX Tegra X1 L2 2016 DRIVE PX DRIVE PX2 Tegra 24TOPS 2017 PX2 DRIVE AGX Xavier Xavier AI 1TOPS/W Mobileye L3 Drive PX2 Drive Xavier 2020 DRIVE AGX Orin L5 Xavier 7 200TOPs 2022 ET723 / 29 5 DRIVE PX Tegra X1 2015 L2 DRIVE PX2 2*Tegra X2 24 0.08 2016 L2/3 DRIVE AGX Xavier Tegra Xavier 30 1.0 2017 L2/3 DRIVE AGX Pegasus 2*Xavier+2* Turing GPU 320 0.6 2017 L4/L5 DRIVE AGX Orin Orin 200 2.7 2022 L2L5 (2) AI AI Journey 2 TSMC 28nm HPC+ 4TOPS 2TOPS/W AI 2020 UNI-T Journey 3 BPU2.0 AEC-Q100 L4/L5 Matrix 2 30 (3) 2016 ADAS 2019 AI A500 5-10TOPS 4TOPS/W 28nm L2L2.5 A500 A500 FSD 2020 6 A1000 6TOPS/W 4070TOPS 16nm A1000L 16TOPS24 / 29 A2000 200TOPS AI DRIVE Orin A1000 A1000L ADAS A1000 L2+ A1000 140TOPS L3 A1000 L4 6 A500 5-10TOPS 2 28nm 2019 3 AEC-Q100 A1000L 16TOPS 5 16nm 2021 6 AEC-Q100 ASIL B A1000 40-70TOPS 8 16nm 2021 8 AEC-Q100 ASIL B ASIL-D ASIL D 3.2.3 (1) QNX ISO 26262 ASIL 80+ QNX QNX QNX Heypervisor QNX Task QNX 2020 6 1.75 QNX 75% Tier1 QNX OEM (2) AliOS Pad IoT IoT AliOS 2014 Linux 2016 AliOS RX5 “ APP ” AliOS “ + ” PC Windows“ + ” “ ” Android iOS “ +APP” “ ” AliOS “ ” (3) 2017 “ ” Apollo 1.0 API25 / 29 2018 7 AI Apollo3.0 OS 2019 12 Apollo Apollo 5.5 2020 Apollo 6.0 Apollo Ubuntu Linux Apollo ubuntu Linux Ubuntu Apollo RTOS Android Apollo 2021 1 11 31 Apollo 4 4.1 2016 P7 L3 2020 9 Orin 5G-V2X OTA OTA 4.226 / 29 ISSI 15 DRAM SRAM FLASH 4.3 2013 (ADAS) Tier1 Rightware 100 2019 60% 1-2 Royalty “ + + ” SoM VR 5G+AI SoM 4.4 1993 2001 ADAS ICVTank 2025 HUD 70% 30% 30% 2020 30% 7% 10% W-HUD ADAS27 / 29 昇腾 系 列 AI 芯片+MDC 平台 OS ICT 2020 9 360A VM AI 7 002920.SZ 98.09 539.50 0.53 0.85 1.00 1.54 115.40 98.09 63.69 300223.SZ 82.55 387.14 0.29 0.22 1.28 1.79 375.23 64.49 46.12 300496.SZ 124.61 527.29 0.59 0.89 1.24 1.68 140.01 100.49 74.17 002405.SZ 15.53 304.56 0.16 0.26 0.46 0.66 59.73 33.76 23.53 Wind Wind 528 / 29 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50029 / 29 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
展开阅读全文