2021化妆品专题.pdf

1 / 30 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 3002 / 30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 / 30 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 / 30 1 1.1 - - 1 + (50%) (15%) (25%) pH +5 / 30 4 2 4 3 500 I 24.7% 43.0% 23.2% 9.2% 18-30 / 31-40 31-35 31-35 100-299 300-999 500-1499 20006 / 30 4 5 CS OTC 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014-2019 CAGR 2310 2536 2768 2978 3177 3380 3728 4197 4777 13% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 10% 13% 14% 9.9% 1152 1272 1393 1510 1610 1698 1881 2131 2444 14% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6% 11% 13% 15% 10% 246 279 312 330 341 356 404 472 575 17% 14% 12% 6% 4% 4% 13% 17% 22% 12% 166 181 205 227 253 285 346 433 552 13% 9% 13% 11% 11% 12% 21% 25% 27% 19.4% 34 37 42 48 59 68 85 102 136 24% 8% 13% 14% 24% 15% 24% 21% 32% 237 / 30 1.2 6 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2.1 3.1 6.8 10.3 13.1 17.0 20.5 9 Pierre Fabre SA 28.9 29.8 27.8 25.3 22.3 18.2 14.5 -2 12.5 12.4 13.1 13.0 12.5 12.2 12.5 3 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.8 9.3 9.4 8.9 3 23.9 21.3 16.7 13.3 10.6 9.1 7.1 -2 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.9 6.4 6.3 9 - - 1.0 1.3 1.9 3.0 5.2 9 - - - 1.2 1.4 2.3 4.6 9 Aveeno - - - 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.2 9 5.4 6.3 7.0 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.0 -2 Sebapharma GmbH & Co KG 9.8 8.6 6.7 6.1 5.3 4.7 3.8 -2 Galderma SA 6.1 7.2 8.1 6.5 5.3 4.3 3.1 -2 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8 9 Caudalie Sarl 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.7 -2 Mustela Expanscience SA, Laboratoires 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 -2 Laboratoire Nuxe SAS 1.7 0.1 0.0 - - 0.1 0.1 -28 / 30 7 品 牌 品 牌 汇聚各大医院皮肤科 权 威联合研制，致力于从根 源解决皮肤屏障受损引起 各种肌肤问题。 选取不易给肌肤添加负 担的原料，采用触感舒 适的配方，不含防腐剂 、香料、酒精等。 取用理肤泉温泉水作为 核心生产原料，其成分 具有舒缓和加快伤口愈 合的特点。 以蕴含独特生物和矿物 遗产雅漾活泉水为核 心，具有舒缓、抗刺激 、软化的特性。 以皮肤学理论为基础， 采用云南青刺果油提取 物等天然成分实现皮肤 屏障修护。 产品富含薇姿火山温泉 水和特殊活性分子，有 舒缓、抗过敏，加强皮 肤屏障。 Dr. Pinnell 150/100mL 178/200ml 225/100ml 108/150mL 150/150ml 210/125ml 218/150ml 158/80mL 185/125ml 380/200ml 170/125ml 189/50g 160/150ml 185/300mL 186/300ml 168/120mL 138/125ml B5 680/30ml 198/50g 200/130ml 285/40ml 288/400ml 198/150mL 269/50ml 640/60ml 258/50g 255/40ml 228/40ml 479/50ml B5 640/75ml a 420/30ml 399/50ml 980/30ml 255/14 B5 360/40ml 189/30g 409/50ml 1760/48ml 10 595/50ml B5 119/40mL 295/100ml 178/50g 268/50ml 980/30ml B5 450/30ml 129/40ml 298/30ml 89 450/75ml 1490/30ml 360/100ml 89 290/10 110/120ml 1580/48ml 啫 185/200g 啫 160/200ml 啫 98/150ml 158/200ml 158/80g 380/200ml 108/200ml 195/300ml 228/30ml 188/120ml 700/60ml 148/150ml 200/200g 187/200ml 198/50g mat 228/40g 200/200mL 188/120ml 185/50ml phyto 595/30ml 148/50ml k 278/40mL 228/30ml 98/12g AI 180/15ml 油 性 皮 肤 干 性 皮 肤9 / 30 1.3 8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 85.4 81.9 77.3 74.5 71.7 69.3 67.3 65.2 62.9 61.1 41.1 38.9 37.8 35.8 33.2 31.1 29.3 26.9 24.3 22.2 CS 16.1 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 7.2 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.7 28.2 25.5 21.5 20.3 19.4 18.5 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.0 14.4 18.0 22.6 25.4 28.2 30.6 32.6 34.7 37.0 38.8 11.2 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.1 10.5 9.9 9.3 8.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.6 5.3 10.2 13.2 16.0 18.9 21.5 24.2 27.1 30.3 83.6 83.6 83.3 83.3 83.0 82.8 82.2 81.8 81.4 81.0 21.5 21.6 21.4 21.4 21.2 20.9 20.5 19.9 19.5 19.1 CS 49.4 49.4 49.5 49.3 48.8 48.1 47.5 47.5 47.6 47.4 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.3 33.2 33.1 33.3 33.3 33.0 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.8 32.4 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.4 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.5 9.1 9.7 69.1 68.9 67.3 66.4 67.1 65.1 63.4 60.9 54.9 52.8 24.4 23.2 22.2 20.7 19.8 18.3 16.7 14.8 13.3 12.3 CS 28.7 29.4 28.8 29.4 31.7 31.7 33.1 33.5 30.5 30.0 25.6 25.6 24.2 24.0 26.1 24.7 23.6 20.9 16.8 15.7 2.8 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.3 6.7 9.3 12.3 13.4 14.1 16.0 16.3 16.3 16.3 15.7 15.1 13.6 12.6 11.2 10.5 30.6 30.8 32.4 33.3 32.5 34.6 36.3 38.8 44.8 47.0 17.4 16.7 16.5 15.2 14.4 14.6 14.3 14.9 14.5 13.9 5.3 5.5 7.0 8.4 8.5 9.0 8.9 9.3 9.4 9.5 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.6 9.6 11.0 13.2 14.7 21.0 23.6 82.8 83.0 82.9 82.6 82.1 80.9 79.8 78.3 77.1 75.3 23.8 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.2 21.7 20.9 20.3 19.8 19.4 CS 30.7 31.1 31.7 31.7 32.3 32.2 32.8 32.9 32.8 32.2 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.8 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.6 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.1 25.1 24.5 23.8 13.7 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.8 16.1 17.2 19.0 20.5 22.4 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.4 7.2 8.6 10.0 11.7 13.5 15.4 92.1 92.1 92.2 92.4 93 93 92.7 91.9 90.9 90.1 47.2 46.9 47.2 47.2 47.2 46.8 46.3 45.2 44.5 43.9 CS 38.6 39 38.8 39.1 39.8 40.4 40.6 41 40.7 40.5 23 23.2 23 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.6 23.9 23.5 23.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.8 9 9.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1 0.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.3 6.1 7.3 8.2 7.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CS 32.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CS 14.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CS 13.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CS 16.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CS10 / 30 9 10 2 11 20.1% 20.2% 22.6% 23.3% 19.0% 20.0% 21.0% 22.0% 23.0% 24.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 82.0% 61.8% 59.9% 67.6% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 LOreal Beiersdorf Pierre Fabre Kao 298.7 76.5 24.0 15022.4 73.0% 57.9% 43.5% 12.6% 9.6% 10.0% 3.3% 3.1% 3.4% 30.8% 34.8% 20.3% 5.4% 60% 39% 1% , 43% 9% , 37% 12% 77% tesa 14% 20% 23% 17% 24% 1611 / 30 / 12 13 + 14 / 15 10 2020 医疗 护肤 1920 1990 1982 1930 1989 1965 1971 1970 1992 1882 1911 1902 Hansaplast 1922 1909 Labello 2002 1951 8x4 1991 Florena 9.1 114.2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1996/1/22 1998/1/22 2000/1/22 2002/1/22 2004/1/22 2006/1/22 2008/1/22 2010/1/22 2012/1/22 2014/1/22 2016/1/22 2018/1/22 2020/1/2212 / 30 16 17 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2017 高端 经济 1980 2017年收购 1989年收购 1980年收购 2014年收购 2005年收购13 / 30 3 * 3 / GDP 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 18 2019-2025 CAGR 18% 4307 0.01% 8.5% GDP 2019 14.7% 366 18% 0.5% 2019 2444 / GDP 0.25% 2025 / GDP 0.31% 2019 5.5% 2025 8.5% 2019 136 5318 14.7% GDP 782 2019 / GDP 0.35% 0.38% 2025 202514 / 30 * 19 P Q2 140 3 234 215 3 360 215 6 720 215 6 720 2 5580 5580 5580 5580 Q1 2 P 2 Q1 Q2 2 215 3 381 5900 2 5015 / 30 4 4.1 20 2116 / 30 22 23 70% 1,2- 1,3- ( E) -2 3 1,2- 1,2- ( E) 1 3 ( E) 3 ( - ) -1 - ( E) 1 3 - - -1 - - 8 +57% +50% PH 180 /50ml 285 /40ml 272 /50ml 268 /50g 1580 /48ml 2020 11 160 269 218 215 1580 66 - - 106.5 1530 2-3 2-3 2 2 2 11 800 1345 1308 1290 948017 / 30 4.2 24 25 26 35% 34% 46% 35% 40% 33% 56% 50% 41% 37% 28% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 30.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CS18 / 30 4.3 KOL 27 2020 28 4.4 / / 2919 / 30 30 2021 4 2021 4 0% 20% 40% 60% 8020 / 30 / / 31 / / 5 / / 32 / / 2014 -2019 CAGR23.2% 9.9% 19.4% P*Q Q Q P / / 41 11 95% 54 - CS 2020 6 - B2C 2019 2018/2019 11” / / 9 4 3 2020 11” 2018 -2020 KOL /21 / 30 5.1 33 34 35 36 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 1 2 3 4 5 6 722 / 30 5.2 + 37 38 39 40 39.23% 39.09% 38.11% 18.37% 17.77% 18.36% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2017 2018 201923 / 30 5.3 + 41 + 42 43 B2C 76.7% 23.3% 55.6% B2C 18.2% 3.0% 66.0% 4.2% 5.2% 23.4% B2C B2C 10.7% 10.4% 2.1% 0.2% 2019 80.6% 72.2% 73.6% 91.6% 84.4% 74.7%/90.5% 71.1% 77.7% 2.6% 18.6% 67.5% -13.4%/-58.6% 68% 30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2017 2018 2019 79.1% 79.6% 78.3% 80.8% 86.1% 86.2% 86.9% 87.9% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 2017 2018 2019 2020H124 / 30 44 B2C 45 46 47 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2017 2018 2019 B2C B2C YoY 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 B2C -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2017 2018 2019 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 2017 2018 2019 2020H125 / 30 5.4 48 4926 / 30 6 6.1 50 51 52 2019 11 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 40027 / 30 6.2 53 54 55 56 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 5 10 15 20 25 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 81.3% 81.2% 80.2% 82.0% 19.5% 21.2% 21.3% 17.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 针对国人 敏感肌 深入研 究， 运用科技 萃取植 物活性 成 分，改善 肌肤敏 感，修 护 肌肤 屏障 。 专业 婴幼 儿肌 肤 功 效性护理 品牌， 为 宝宝 提供 针对 性 分 阶护理。 针对干燥 性问题 肌 肤所 设计 ，专 门 针 对非公渠 道研制 开 发的 专属 品牌 。 借助国际 学术前 沿的 痤疮 研究 成果 和 澳洲 原生茶树 精油， 研发 真正有效 的祛痘 产品。 定 位高 端 ，专 业 精 准修 护 品牌28 / 30 5 EPS PE 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E 729 / 3030 / 30