资源描述
1 / 9 2021 01 01 2021 敩 S0790520050002 risk-on VIX 2020 5 VIX 25 2021 65 3 -20% 10Y 3.6% PPI 2021 3.5%-4% PPI PPI PPI - - 2013 2017 10Y-30Y AA- AA- 2021 Q42 / 9 1 . 3 2 . 3 3 . 3 4 2021 65 . 4 5 2021 . 4 6 10Y 3.6% . 5 7 . 5 8 . 6 9 . 6 10 2021 Q4 . 7 11 . 7 1 M2 . 3 2 5 . 3 3 PMI 2020 5 . 4 4 . 4 5 PPI . 5 6 10Y-30Y . 5 7 4% . 6 8 . 6 9 . 7 10 4% . 73 / 9 1 risk-on 1 M2 Wind 2 VIX 2020 5 VIX 25 2 5 Wind 3 (5) 0 5 10 15 20 (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 2004/04 2005/02 2005/12 2006/10 2007/08 2008/06 2009/04 2010/02 2010/12 2011/10 2012/08 2013/06 2014/04 2015/02 2015/12 2016/10 2017/08 2018/06 2019/04 2020/02 CRB : M2 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 ( ):COMEX : : GDP4 / 9 PMI 2020 5 PMI 3 PMI 2020 5 Wind 4 2021 65 3 -20% 4 Wind 5 2021 PPI 2021 3.5%-4% PPI PPI PPI - - 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2015/09 2016/09 2017/09 2018/09 2019/09 2020/09 : (ISM): PMI : PMI -5 0 5 10 15 20 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 WTI : M25 / 9 5 PPI Wind 6 10Y 3.6% 2013 2017 10Y-30Y 2013 2017 6 10Y-30Y Wind 7 2020 6 2020 7 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PPI: : 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 30Y-10Y6 / 9 7 4% Wind 8 AA- AA- 8 Wind 9 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 0 5 10 15 20 25 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 2014-01 2014-07 2015-01 2015-07 2016-01 2016-07 2017-01 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 (AA):1 : (AA-):1 : (A):1 : (AAA):1 : (AA+):17 / 9 9 Wind 10 2021 Q4 2021 Q4 AA 10 4% Wind 11 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10 15 20 25 30 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 :8 / 9 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 5009 / 9 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
展开阅读全文