光伏玻璃产能密集待投纯碱需求将超预期增长.pdf

1 / 21 2021 02 10 - -2021.2.7 -Q1 5-10% -2021.2.7 - -2021.2.7 S0790520020002 S0790120080059 S0790120010015 2021 / 2020 / 104% 2021-2022 2021 6 60 2021 3,377 2022 140 / 2022 3,447 2020 2,658.84 -0.74% 2021 82.46 2021 2,741.31 2021 340 286 60 300 120 70 / 2021 52.47 2021 2015 7.76% 2021-2022 Wind 1 29 384 248 2020 9 6,100 t/d 2021 109.80 2021 21.96 2021 11,350t/d 2021 152.55 2021 30.51 2020-2021 2021 52.47 21.96+30.51 2021 15,700t/d 2021 30 2021 -2022 60,000-80,000 t/d 438-584 2022 3,149.31 2021-2022 2022 2,000 / -15% 0% 15% 31% 46% 62% 2020-02 2020-06 2020-10 3002 / 21 1 . 4 2 . 5 2.1 . 6 2.1.1 . 6 2.1.2 . 6 2.1.3 . 8 2.1.4 . 10 2.2 2021 . 13 3 2021 . 15 4 . 19 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 . 6 4 . 6 5 . 6 6 2009-2014 . 7 7 2016 6.1% . 8 8 2016 22.50% . 8 9 2016 . 8 10 2016 . 8 11 2020 1 . 9 12 2020 4 . 9 13 2020 5-9 . 9 14 2015 CAGR 7.76% . 10 15 2021 1 . 10 16 2018 / . 10 17 . 13 18 2020 9 . 14 19 2018 . 16 20 2017 / 100% . 16 21 PE band 2 9 22.87X . 18 22 PE band 2 9 20.00X . 18 23 PE band 2 9 6.35X . 19 1 . 4 2 2013 . 7 3 2020 / . 11 4 2021 11,350t/d . 12 5 . 133 / 21 6 2021 15,700t/d . 14 7 2021 . 16 8 2022 . 16 9 . 17 10 “ ” . 184 / 21 1 Na 2CO 3 105.99 99.5% CO 2 NaHCO 3 1,000-1,200kg/m 3 500-600kg/m 3 49% 45% 2019 70% 1 NaCl 28%-30% 96% N/A5 / 21 1 2 59% 5% 3% 2009 10-20% 2009 2019 2,678.77 +8.28% GDP 2020 2,658.84 -0.74% 2019 18 143.52 2015 219.72 34.686 / 21 2 3 2.1 2.1.1 0.2 75% 15% 10% 4 5 2.1.2 2008 2009 -2014 Wind 2009 -2014 24.8 , 41% , 9% , 5% , 5% , 4% , 3% , 33% (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YoY % - , 75% , 15% , 107 / 21 2015 2015 2016 5 2015 Wind 2015 -2019 24.8 5,459t/d / 6 2009-2014 Wind 2 2013 2013 10 2015 1,500 1,500 1 2,000 2016 5 2020 10 60% 2020 2018 1 1.25 2018 8 2020 1 150 / 9 4 8 35 17 16 16 23 30 23 21 29 23 11 8 5 11 3 9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20208 / 21 2016 2016 2016 7.70 6.1% 2016 13.58 22.50% 2016 2016 7 2016 6.1% 8 2016 22.50% 9 2016 10 2016 Wind Wind 2.1.3 2020 2020 2020 1-3 2020 1-3 3,139 1,366 4,139 2019 29.70% 59.55% 13.26% 2020 4 (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 : : % (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 : : % 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 ( ): : / 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 :9 / 21 4 5,790 39.89% 17.23% Wind 1-3 3 12,980 74.09% 3-5 6 6 2020 14.91 4 Wind 2020 109.15 / 5 173.45 9 40.45 76.68% Wind 1,418 / 9 1,950 / 37.52% 11 2020 1 12 2020 4 Wind Wind 13 2020 5-9 Wind 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2008-04 2008-08 2008-12 2009-04 2009-08 2009-12 2010-04 2010-08 2010-12 2011-04 2011-08 2011-12 2012-04 2012-08 2012-12 2013-04 2013-08 2013-12 2014-04 2014-08 2014-12 2015-04 2015-08 2015-12 2016-04 2016-08 2016-12 2017-04 2017-08 2017-12 2018-04 2018-08 2018-12 2019-04 2019-08 2019-12 2020-04 2020-08 2020-12 : : : : % 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2009-04 2009-08 2009-12 2010-04 2010-08 2010-12 2011-04 2011-08 2011-12 2012-04 2012-08 2012-12 2013-04 2013-08 2013-12 2014-04 2014-08 2014-12 2015-04 2015-08 2015-12 2016-04 2016-08 2016-12 2017-04 2017-08 2017-12 2018-04 2018-08 2018-12 2019-04 2019-08 2019-12 2020-04 2020-08 2020-12 : : 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 ( ): : / ( ): : /10 / 21 2.1.4 2015 2020 22.44 2015 15.45 7.76% 2021-2022 Wind 2 5 384 247 14 2015 CAGR 7.76% 15 2021 1 Wind 2018 2009-2014 6-8 2016-2021 2016 / Wind 2018-2020 80.48 / 2015 63.96 / 2021 16 2018 / (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 : : % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 : : : % 5,130 21,950 24,390 8,430 14,730 8,000 9,230 10,550 4,450 5,100 10,150 13,480 8,000 10,460 10,150 13,500 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 t/d t/d11 / 21 2021 2020 9 6,100 t/d 9 2020 2020 9 2021 109.80 0.2 2021 21.96 2021 11,350t/d 2021 152.55 2021 30.51 2020-2021 2021 52.47 21.96+30.51 3 2020 / t/d) 2021 - 600 2020/3/1 10.80 1,100 2020/5/18 19.80 - 600 2020/5/25 2020 12 10.80 - 400 2020/5/29 7.20 500 2020/7/17 9.00 600 2020/8/18 10.80 700 2020/11/1 12.60 700 2020/10/1 12.60 900 2020/11/1 16.20 6,100 109.80 / - 1,000 2020/1/1 - 600 2020/3/30 - 500 2020/4/2 600 2020/4/30 F 500 2020/5/10 - 600 2020/5/12 600 2020/5/20 5 20 - 1,200 2020/6/1 - 800 2020/6/28 - 900 2020/7/15 700 2020/7/15 - 600 2020/7/21 600 2020/8/6 1,000 2020/8/12 - 700 2020/9/1 - 600 2020/10/112 / 21 t/d) 2021 400 2020/11/1 600 2020/12/3 1,000 2020/12/1 6 13,500 / - 600 2020/1/1 - - 600 2020/1/1 - 900 2020/1/1 - 700 2020/3/1 1,200 2020/5/1 1,200 2020/5/1 600 2020/5/2 500 2020/5/20 1,000 2020/8/5 600 2020/9/22 800 2020/11/15 800 2020/11/17 1,050 2020/12/1 5 10,550 4 2021 11,350t/d 2021 800 4-5 600 3 700 1 800 5 700 1 600 1 600 6 700 5-6 700 1 700 - 600 1,250 Q4 600 10 500 3 900 10 3# 600 113 / 21 2021 11,350 2.2 2021 150ppm 92% 5 N2 H2 3.2mm + + 2.5mm Al 17 2020 2020 201814 / 21 - 1-1.5 1 3-5 2020 2020 8 3.2mm 23.5 / 2021 1 43.0 / 82.98% 18 2020 9 2020 11 3 6 12 16 2021 15,700t/d 2021 0.2 30 2021 -2022 60,000-80,000 t/d 438-584 6 2021 15,700t/d 2 2,000 2021 2 2,000 - 600 2021 6 - 900 2021 1,200 2021 - 1,000 2021 10-11 - 600 2021 20 25 30 35 40 45 2019-01 2019-02 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 3.2mm ( /15 / 21 - 2,400 2021 - 800 2021 1,200 2021 - 900 2021 - 900 - 1,200 2021 15,700 3 2021 1998-2008 , 800 2,250 10.8% 2008 2010 120 / 80% 60 / 60% 40 / 80% 3,000 2020 3,317 2.16% 2,759 1.58% / 2020 / 104% 2021 2021 6 20 20 20 2021 12 50 130 2021 6 60 2021 3,377 2022 140 / 20 60 60 2022 3,44716 / 21 19 2018 20 2017 / 100% 7 2021 / 20 2021 6 20 2021 6 20 2021 6 50 - 2021 12 -130 2021 12 2021 -20 20 2022 3 60 2022 6 60 2022 2022 140 2021 2020 2,658.84 -0.74% 2021 52.47 30 2021 2,741.31 2021 2021-2022 2020 2022 3,149.31 2022 3,447 90% 2022 3,102.30 2021-2022 2022 2,000 / 8 2022 2021E 2022E 2,658.84 2,741.31 52.47 - 30.00 408.00 2,741.31 3,149.31 2,100 2,400 2,660 2,814 2,864 3,007 3,052 3,013 2,970 3,035 3,091 3,247 3,317 90 83 76 82 83 80 82 86 87 89 84 86 86 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % - 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% 108% 110% 112% 114% 116% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 / 17 / 21 2021E 2022E 3,317.00 3,377.00 60.00 70.00 3,377.00 3,447.00 % 90% 90% 3,039.30 3,102.30 - 297.99 -47.01 2019 340 230 51% 110 286 100 / 1.90 60 / 100 / 4,513 120 300 70 / 9 / 330 300 230 110 150 150 130 130 120 120 120 120 50 60 80 80 80 70 60 60 60 6018 / 21 / 60 60 60 60 40 40 36 35 35 ADC 30 30 30 30 25 20 20 20 18 3,319 10 2021/2/9 % PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 600409.SH 13.57 -56.94 -24.98 205.56 10.42 41.02 54.68 17.89 16.20 002539.SZ 10.43 21.35 136.85 51.76 27.25 49.40 20.86 13.74 10.80 Wind 21 PE band 2 9 22.87X 22 PE band 2 9 20.00X Wind PE band Wind Wind PE band Wind -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 55.013X 46.976X 38.940X 30.904X 22.867X -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 125.758X 99.319X 72.881X 46.443X 20.004X19 / 21 23 PE band 2 9 6.35X Wind PE band Wind 4 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 39.435X 31.164X 22.892X 14.621X 6.350X20 / 21 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50021 / 21 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065