物管行业专题报告一：物管三重场景远期估值在于业务边界延展性.pdf

1 / 32 2021 01 31 - -2021.1.24 - -2021.1.19 - -2021.1.17 S0790520060001 S0790520100001 1 2 70% 3 2.3 1 49% 1 2 2 1 10% 2 2020 -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 55% 69% 2020-02 2020-06 2020-10 3002 / 32 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.1.1 . 4 1.1.2 . 7 1.2 . 9 1.2.1 . 9 1.2.2 . 12 1.3 . 17 1.3.1 “ ” . 17 1.3.2 . 18 2 2.3 . 21 2.1 2 . 21 2.2 3000 . 23 3 . 24 3.1 . 24 3.2 . 26 4 . 28 5 . 30 1 . 4 2 3 . 5 3 3 . 5 4 IPO . 6 5 . 7 6 2017 . 7 7 . 7 8 . 8 9 . 8 10 2019 . 9 11 2019 . 9 12 2019 . 9 13 2019 . 9 14 . 10 15 . 10 16 . 10 17 . 11 18 . 11 19 . 11 20 2020H1 27% . 14 21 2020H1 21% . 143 / 32 22 2020M4 19% . 15 23 2020H1 . 15 24 2020H1 . 15 25 2020H1 . 16 26 . 17 27 71% . 17 28 . 18 29 500 . 18 30 . 20 31 . 20 32 . 20 33 . 20 34 . 21 35 . 23 36 . 23 37 APP . 24 38 & . 25 39 2020 49% . 27 40 2020 . 27 41 . 28 1 . 6 2 . 9 3 . 12 4 . 12 5 . 13 6 . 13 7 . 14 8 75% . 17 9 . 19 10 . 19 11 2020 223 . 21 12 49% . 22 13 . 23 14 3000 . 24 15 17.6 . 25 16 39.8 . 26 17 51.4 . 26 18 2020 . 27 19 2020 77 . 28 20 PE . 294 / 32 1981 21 2019 13.4 5.5% 1 1 1.1 1.1.1 2015 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 2017 2018 20195 / 32 2017-2019 46% 66% 21 17 50% 58% 2 3 3 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 2019 2017-2019 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 2019 2017-20196 / 32 4 IPO 1 2019/9/26 20000 60% 20.6 - 2020/7/30 - 65% 5.12 20/21/22 0.75 1.10 1.14 2020 7 2020/10/14 - 70% 24.5 20 24 2.2 2021-2023 20% 2020 16 2021/1/7 - 65% 4.34 2020 6000 2020 11 2021/1/17 8600 80% 13.16 2020 1-11 1.25 2019 98% 10 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 907 / 32 5 6 2017 7 1.1.2 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2019 20198 / 32 8 9 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2016 2017 2018 20199 / 32 10 2019 11 2019 12 2019 13 2019 1.2 1.2.1 2 , 32% , 11% , 11% , 17% , 16% , 13% , 28% , 6% , 11% , 45% , 10% , 17% , 10% , 16% , 6% , 12% , 40% , 54% , 14% , 21% , 1010 / 32 2020 IPO 2014 2.85 2019 5.35 13.4% 14 15 IPO IPO 16 IPO 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201911 / 32 1 2 3 17 18 Wind IPO 19 Wind 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 25.00 25.50 26.00 26.50 27.00 27.50 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / / 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 - -12 / 32 DCF 1.2.2 3 1 2 1 2 3 app 4 IPO 4 IPO13 / 32 5 1 2 1 2 IPO 250-330 5% 10-20% 6 5% / 10% IPO14 / 32 7 A B C 500-800 350-500 350 100-300 20-90 / / 15-35 / / 4.5-15 250-330 10% 20% 15%-20% - IPO 2020H1 59% 52% 68% 20 2020H1 27% 21 2020H1 21% , 59% , 2% , 27% , 12% , , 21% , 52% , 1415 / 32 22 2020M4 19% 23 2020H1 7 2020 1-4 1-3 2020H1 5.94 38.88 15% 24% 26% 15%-25% 24 2020H1 2020H1 , 3% , 68% , 19% , 11% 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2020H116 / 32 5% 7.4% 9.7% 250-330 10%-20% 15%-20% 10% 25 2020H1 10 50 / / 95% 5700 1 20% 10 / / 2 10% 3 250 / 250-330 / 1200 570 2500 4270 75% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2020H117 / 32 1770 31% 8 75% 10 / / 50 95% 5700 / / 10 1200 570 2500 4270 75% 2019 40.69 23.66 16.89 71% 41% 26 27 71% 1.3 1.3.1 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 2017 2018 2019 2020H118 / 32 28 1 5 29 500 2020 1.3.2 95% 95% 58% 66% 45% 76% 54% 58% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2018 201919 / 32 9 1500 / 500 20 3 100 = 100- % 20 20 20 20 20 10 8 24 39 13 27 - 201620 / 32 2020 9 8 30 31 99.97% 4900 5130 2015 759 2019 1300 14% 2015 1.48 2018 2.2 4A 5A 32 33 2020 30 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 2015 2016 2017 201821 / 32 308 34 2 2.3 2.1 2 2018 204 2010-2018 99% 2020 223 2010-2018 3 1 3 1 167 56 2.5 4.5 / / 5011 3007 8018 2019 79% 21% 80% 20% 2004 2020 10022 11 2020 223 ) / 2010 124 7.0 7.9 6.1 1.8 89% 2011 134 10.0 9.3 7.2 2.1 10822 / 32 ) / 2012 144 10.0 9.9 7.9 2.0 101% 2013 154 10.0 10.1 7.9 2.3 99% 2014 164 10.0 10.7 8.1 2.7 93% 2015 175 11.0 10.0 7.4 2.6 110% 2016 185 10.0 10.6 7.7 2.9 94% 2017 195 10.0 10.1 7.2 3.0 99% 2018 204 9.0 9.4 6.6 2.8 96% 2019E 214 9.6 9.6 6.8 2.8 100% 2020E 223 9.1 9.1 6.6 2.5 100% Wind 2019 14 60.6% 39.8 / 337.7 167 49% 12 49% 2019 14 2019 60.6% / 2019 39.8 337.7 49% Wind 2 1 45 / 2.8 / / 70% 60% 8891 1.77 2 20% 40% 1.48 3 1 1.9823 / 32 13 50% 60% 70% 65.0% 6880 8256 9631 70.0% 7409 8891 10372 75.0% 7938 9526 11113 80.0% 8467 10161 11854 2.2 3000 2019 23.89 8% 2.49 13% 10 17% 10.4% 2010 35 36 Wind Wind 2019 9456 10 33% 38% 5% 2 473 3 50% 20% 3000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201924 / 32 14 3000 30000 50% 20% 3000 Wind 3 3.1 37 APP APP25 / 32 38 & Wind 10% 1 SOHO 400 2% 2 10% 3 2% 4 10 1 GMV 800 16 17.6 15 17.6 GMV 2% 400 10% 10% 800 2% 16.0 17.6 C -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 PE-2021E PE-2022E 3 2020-2022E)26 / 32 1 2% 50% 20 337.7 2.1 2 10% 3 2000 / 4 10% 19.9 39.8 16 39.8 / 2% 50% 20 19.9 2000 10% 10% 10% 39.8 1 337.7 40 3 2 50% 3 25% 40 4 10% GMV 514 51.4 17 51.4 GMV 2.8 40.00 25% 10% 50% 514 10% 51.4 3.2 2020 2020 94 47% 54 54% 2019 93% 2020 4927 / 32 2020 31 16 33% 17% 39 2020 49% 40 2020 2019 13 18 2020 % 2020/12/29 510 100 2020/12/11 1348 100 2020/10/30 37520 60 2020/10/14 245000 70 2020/8/1 3966.62 100 2020/5/1 4000 51 46.52 31.38 16.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 98% 93% 49% 33% 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 2019 202028 / 32 % 2020/1/1 - 60 19 2020 77 % PE 2020 10 245000 70 15.90 2020 7 151200 100 10.50 2020 5 148760 85 23.85 2020 7 61470 51 - 2020 9 39050 24 - 2020 10 37520 60 12.10 2020 4 24790 80 13.42 2020 6 23405 51 16.10 2020 12 21600 80 13 2020 12 21440 80 11.65 41 429 / 32 20 PE RMB PE 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E 6098.HK 1550 16.7 22.9 30.6 40.8 37% 34% 33% 68 51 38 6666.HK 1550 9.3 26.0 39.1 58.6 180% 50% 50% 60 40 26 - 1209.HK 777 3.6 7.1 13.8 18.2 93% 95% 32% 110 56 43 - 1516.HK 565 2.7 5.8 12.2 19.8 114% 111% 62% 98 46 29 - 9666.HK 388 3.7 6.1 10.1 14.3 66% 65% 42% 64 39 27 3319.HK 377 12.3 17.2 22.8 28.9 40% 32% 27% 22 17 13 - 1995.HK 312 2.2 3.8 5.7 8.5 70% 51% 48% 82 54 37 0873.HK 269 3.8 7.2 12.7 19.1 87% 77% 50% 37 21 14 - 6049.HK 270 4.9 7.0 9.4 12.7 42% 36% 34% 39 29 21 2869.HK 235 4.8 6.7 8.7 11.2 41% 29% 29% 35 27 21 - 001914.SZ 205 2.9 5.9 8.2 10.9 105% 40% 33% 35 25 19 - 1755.HK 138 2.8 4.2 6.3 9.3 48% 50% 49% 33 22 15 2669.HK 132 4.8 5.6 7.3 8.8 17% 29% 21% 23 18 15 - 3913.HK 138 1.8 3.3 6.1 9.6 78% 87% 57% 42 22 14 - 9909.HK 124 1.8 3.0 4.2 5.8 66% 43% 36% 42 29 21 - 002968.SZ 55 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 28% 31% 26% 41 31 25 - 2606.HK 56 4.3 5.8 7.8 10.5 35% 35% 34% 10 7 5 - 3662.HK 30 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.0 55% 52% 31% 12 8 6 - 603506.SH 27 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 28% 27% 23% 19 15 12 Wind wind 2021 1 31 1 0.8330 / 32 5 1 2 3 431 / 32 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50032 / 32 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065