泡泡玛特对比三丽鸥：起于同源前景更优.pdf

1 / 36 09992.HK 2021 04 12 2021/4/12 ( ) 58.100 ( ) 107.60/46.650 ( ) 814.53 ( ) 814.53 ( ) 14.02 ( ) 14.02 3 (%) 23.21 -2020 - 2021.3.29 -IP -2020.12.18 S0790520030002 Hello Kitty Hello Kitty IP 2021 1 845 IP 2021-2023 11.11/16.45/24.10 EPS 0.8/1.2/1.7 PE 61.8/41.7/28.5 IP IP 1974-1998 Kidult IP IP Hello Kitty IP IP IP + IP IP 21 1 2 IP 3 IP 21 1 2 3 IP IP 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E ( ) 1683 2513 4448 6549 9512 YOY(%) 227.6 49.3 77.0 47.2 45.2 ( ) 469 591 1111 1645 2410 YOY(%) 367.7 25.9 88.1 48.1 46.5 (%) 64.8 63.4 64.1 64.3 64.7 (%) 27.9 23.5 25.0 25.1 25.3 ROE(%) 79.1 9.6 13.9 17.6 20.4 EPS( / ) 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E( ) 146.5 116.3 61.8 41.7 28.5 P/B( ) 115.8 11.2 8.6 7.4 5.8 2021 4 12 / =0.842 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2020-04 2020-08 2020-122 / 36 1 IP . 5 2 . 8 2.1 . 9 2.2 . 13 2.3 Kidult . 16 2.4 . 19 3 Hello Kitty IP . 22 3.1 IP . 22 3.2 + IP . 25 4 . 26 4.1 . 27 4.2 IP IP . 28 4.3 IP . 31 5 . 33 6 . 33 . 34 1 IP Hello Kitty . 5 2 . 5 3 Hello Kitty . 5 4 2020 150 . 5 5 IP IP IP IP . 6 6 . 7 7 . 7 8 . 7 9 Hello Kitty . 7 10 . 8 11 20 80 GDP 1 . 9 12 2019 GDP . 9 13 . 10 14 . 11 15 85-00 . 11 16 2019 95 . 11 17 . 11 18 1970 . 13 19 2019 60% . 13 20 . 14 21 1982 . 14 22 . 15 23 GDP . 153 / 36 24 . 15 25 . 15 26 . 15 27 . 15 28 2018 . 16 29 . 16 30 15 . 16 31 . 16 32 20 70 . 17 33 . 17 34 20 70 GDP . 18 35 . 18 36 20 90 . 18 37 / . 18 38 14 . 19 39 14 . 19 40 . 20 41 “ ” . 20 42 1999 9.5% 2010 32.9% . 21 43 . 21 44 2019 : . 21 45 IP . 22 46 Hello Kitty . 23 47 . 25 48 . 25 49 . 25 50 . 25 51 Make Up Forever Skull Panda . 26 52 Furla Hello Kitty . 26 53 2019-2024 CAGR 17.7% . 27 54 2019-2024 CAGR 29.8% . 27 55 21 . 27 56 10% . 27 57 . 28 58 . 28 59 IP . 28 60 Hello Kitty . 29 61 Hello Kitty . 29 62 LINE . 30 63 Twitter . 30 64 “ + ” . 30 65 28 + . 30 66 21 Hello Kitty IP . 31 1 4 . 84 / 36 2 GDP 1 . 9 3 1975-1995 . 12 4 . 12 5 2004 1 2 . 13 6 IP IP . 24 7 IP . 325 / 36 1 IP 1960 130 Hello Kitty 500 IP 1 IP Hello Kitty 2 IP Hello Kitty Hello Kitty 1974 Hello Kitty IP Hello Kitty 1974-1977 10 20 90 Hello Kitty IP Statista 2021 1 Hello Kitty 845 IP Hello Kitty IP License Global 2020 150 10 IP 3 Hello Kitty 4 2020 150 Statista research License Global 20196 / 36 IP IP IP IP IP IP IP IP IP IP Hello Kitty IP Molly IP IP IP IP 5 IP IP IP IP IP IP 15-29 20-59 3-9 10-14 IP Hello Kitty 75% Hello Kitty 70% 9- 15 IP IP Hello Kitty Molly IP7 / 36 6 7 8 9 Hello Kitty 1974 Hello Kitty 1998 1998 1 2 Hello Kitty IP 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 3-9 10-14 25% 75% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 9-15 Hello Kitty8 / 36 10 Bloomberg 1989 2 20 1974-1998 1 2 3 Kidult 4 1 4 1912-1941 1945-1974 1975-2004 2005-2034 5% 5% 2% 2% 1.3-1.4% 1.3-1.4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 20% 20%-30% National Family Individual Social 3C -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20199 / 36 2.1 1 GDP 1 1981 GDP 2019 GDP 2018 GDP GDP 12055 GDP 1 GDP 1 GDP 11 20 80 GDP 1 12 2019 GDP Wind Wind 2 GDP 1 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 GDP 4997 7516 12179 17588 23037 27559 35081 % 35.23 33.23 33.53 30.88 27.88 26.3 23.44 % 61.22 62.68 63.56 66.69 70.05 72.08 75.36 GDP 2672 6035 11746 9125 21583 30887 22945 % 48.08 42.07 41.05 39.04 37.33 32.14 30.49 % 48.24 54.79 56.54 59.02 61.16 66.58 68.23 GDP 1974 4514 9170 11297 24754 41967 36789 % 45.31 41.08 40.68 39.36 39.13 34.34 32.4 % 48.64 53.5 55.68 57.48 58.39 63.76 65.82 GDP 2367 6153 11467 11346 % 39.07 41.56 41.85 38.06 % 47.38 49.49 51.79 57.3 Wind 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 : GDP 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 : GDP10 / 36 2 1946-1954 1973-1980 Hello Kitty 20 70-80 Hello Kitty 15 20 90 Hello Kitty 20 90 Hello Kitty 13 Wind 1982 85 85-00 1 85-00 2 85-00 GDP 70-80 85-00 85-00 18-34 85-00 80% 2019 95 Kantar11 / 36 14 15 85-00 Wind 16 2019 95 17 Kantar 3 1975 -1995 1 2 19.5% 25.6% 15.6% 23.0% 1995 1 2 45% 4 4 2 1975-1995 11.6% 17.4% 32% 26% 20% 22% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 18-24 25-29 30-34 189.7% 59% 41.7% 30% Cosplay 29.512 / 36 3 1975-1995 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1975 19.5% 15.6% 18.6% 24.7% 11.6% 6.1% 3.8% 1985 20.8% 18.4% 17.9% 23.7% 11.1% 5.2% 2.9% 1995 25.6% 23.0% 18.5% 18.9% 8.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1980-1985 1.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% -0.3% -1.4% 1985-1995 3.6% 3.7% 1.8% -0.8% -1.8% -1.5% -1.6% 4 1960 7.3% 1.1% 6.4% 38.2% 16.1% 30.8% 1970 9.8% 0.8% 4.9% 41.2% 20.3% 23.0% 1975 11.6% 0.8% 4.6% 42.5% 19.5% 21.0% 1980 12.5% 0.8% 4.9% 42.1% 19.8% 19.9% 1985 13.7% 0.9% 5.4% 40.0% 20.8% 19.2% 1990 15.5% 1.0% 5.7% 37.3% 23.1% 17.4% 1995 17.4% 1.1% 6.0% 34.2% 25.6% 15.7% 1 2 20 70-80 80% 2019 60% 3 2004 1 2 2019 1 2 48.1% 1995 197513 / 36 18 1970 19 2019 60% Wind Wind 5 2004 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2004 7.8% 19.6% 31.4% 21.8% 12.4% 4.4% 2.5% 2005 10.7% 24.5% 29.8% 19.2% 10.2% 3.8% 1.8% 2006 9.1% 24.2% 30.7% 20.0% 10.8% 3.6% 1.6% 2007 8.9% 24.4% 30.4% 20.9% 10.1% 3.7% 1.5% 2008 8.9% 24.6% 30.4% 21.0% 10.0% 3.7% 1.5% 2009 10.0% 25.0% 29.4% 19.6% 10.6% 3.8% 1.6% 2011 14.0% 26.0% 27.7% 16.9% 9.4% 4.1% 1.9% 2012 14.1% 26.4% 27.6% 16.8% 9.2% 4.1% 1.8% 2013 14.6% 27.3% 26.9% 17.0% 8.5% 3.9% 1.9% 2014 14.9% 27.7% 26.7% 15.9% 8.8% 4.2% 1.9% 2015 13.1% 25.3% 26.4% 17.9% 10.3% 4.5% 2.4% 2016 14.1% 25.8% 26.1% 17.8% 9.7% 4.3% 2.2% 2017 15.6% 27.2% 24.7% 17.1% 8.9% 4.3% 2.0% 2018 16.7% 28.3% 23.4% 16.5% 8.6% 4.4% 2.2% 2019 18.5% 29.6% 22.3% 15.9% 7.8% 4.1% 1.9% 2.2 1 20 70 1975 1977 1985 1982 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 201914 / 36 20 21 1982 2 1975 1975 1994 1953 2614 1975 1167 1994 2034 1975 32.0% 38.8% 20 70 GDP 1975 52% 1995 64% 1975 1975 1975 2000 27 28.8 24.7 27 1950 3.65 1998 1.38 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 10015 / 36 22 23 GDP Wind 24 25 Wind 26 27 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1994 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 : GDP : 52% 58% 64% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1975 1985 1995 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 : : ( ): : : ( ): 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3.65 2.13 1.38 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1950 1970 199816 / 36 2018 70% 2019 47.4% 15 2017 25.7 28 2018 29 Wind 30 15 31 Wind 2.3 Kidult Kidult Kids Adult / Kidult 20 90 Kidult Kidult 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 : 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15 : 15 : 21.4 22.6 22.8 25.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 2000 2010 201717 / 36 1 85-00 20 70 Hello Kitty 20 70 20 70 20 90 Hello Kitty 20 90 32 20 70 doremi 85-00 20 90 2016 85-00 85-00 3318 / 36 2 20 90 GDP 1992 2% 2000 5% GDP 2016 2020 40% 20 90 85-00 Kidult 34 20 70 GDP 35 Wind Wind 36 20 90 37 / Wind Wind -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 GDP 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 GDP 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1953-01 1957-05 1961-09 1966-01 1970-05 1974-09 1979-01 1983-05 1987-09 1992-01 1996-05 2000-09 2005-01 2009-05 2013-09 2018-01 : 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 /19 / 36 3 1974 -2000 14 2% 1.5% 14 1990 20% 10% 2019 138355 17% 20.7% 52toys 38 14 39 14 Wind 2.4 20 60 90 20 60 90 20 90 Hello Kitty 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 14 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 :0-1420 / 36 40 IP 2019 746 4121 / 36 20 90 20 90 Hello Kitty 1999 9.5% 2010 32.9% 42 1999 9.5% 2010 32.9% 20 70- 90 21 2021 2022 30 70 300 700 43 44 2019 : 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052010 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2019 2020 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2017 2018 2019 2020H122 / 36 3 Hello Kitty IP IP IP IP Hello Kitty IP IP Hello Kitty IP 3.1 IP Hello Kitty IP IP Hello Kitty Hello Kitty Hello Kitty IP IP IP IP 45 IP IP Hello Kitty 90 Hello Kitty Hello Kitty23 / 36 46 Hello Kitty IP IP 1 IP IP IP 2017-2019 7 6 5 Molly 2021 12 IP 35 21 IP 55 1 IP IP IP MOLLY PUCKY24 / 36 IP IP 6 IP IP 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 2020H2 2021 IP 7(1) 7(2) 12(5) 7(4) 17(10) 35(12) IP 1(1) 8(3) 32(14) 17(14) 28(16) 55(21) IP 0(0 2(2) 5(5) 9(8) 18(14) 41(25) IP 7(1) 1 IP 7 2 2020 2020 187 1351 40% 100 BOBO&COCO Yuki IP 2025 / 36 3.2 + IP IP IP IP IP IP IP IP IP 47 48 49 5026 / 36 IP IP Hello Kitty Molly IP IP 2017-2020 70 1870 IP 51 Make Up Forever Skull Panda 52 Furla Hello Kitty IP Hello Kitty 1993 20 IP IP IP 4 21 1 2 IP 3 Hello Kitty 21 1 2 3 IP27 / 36 4.1 1 2019 198 2015 127.6% 2019-2024 17.7% 2024 448 2 2015-2019 34.6% 2020 262 2024 763 2019-2024 29.8% 53 2019-2024 CAGR 17.7% 54 2019-2024 CAGR 29.8% 21 2002-2018 4.4% 2002-2012 2.0% 2012- 2018 2012-2018 1.1% 30.0% 21 55 21 56 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 100 200 300 400 500 63 82 108 140 207 262 366 478 608 763 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 201828 / 36 20 60 21 2007 4591 2020 7240 2019 CR5 22.8% 8.5% 57 58 Wind 4.2 IP IP IP IP IP IP IP IP IP 59 IP 4591 1819 966 7240 1648 553 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2007 2020 8.5% 7.7% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% A B C D 201929 / 36 Hello Kitty 20 70-80 Hello Kitty Hello Kitty Hello Kitty IP 60 Hello Kitty 61 Hello Kitty IP 21 IP LINE Twitter LINE FRIENDS IP LINE 2013 344 2019 1665 CAGR 30% LINE FRIENDS LINE LINE 2012 Twitter IP Hello Kitty LINE FRIENDS30 / 36 62 LINE 63 Twitter Wind IP Z IP 1 2 + Z IP 21 1 2 3 Hello Kitty IP 64 + 65 28 + APP 2021 4 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LINE31 / 36 4.3 IP Hello Kitty IP 500 Hello Kitty IP 21 Hello Kitty 2019 My Melody IP Hello Kitty 66 21 Hello Kitty IP IP 2017 Molly IP Molly 89% IP 2020 Molly 14.2% 12.9pct Molly Dimoo Pucky The Monsters IP 8% IP 2019 Dimoo 5.9% 2020 12.5% SKULL PANDA 2020 3907 27.6 PDC IP 2020 IP 132 / 36 7 IP 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020H2 % % % % % IP Molly 4102 25.9% 21389 41.6% 45602 27.1% 35692 14.2% 24485 14.4% Dimoo 10009 5.9% 31525 12.5% 19778 11.7% BOBO& COCO 2545 1.5% 6742 2.7% 3448 2.0% SKULLP ANDA 3907 1.6% 0 0.0% 182 0.4% 4547 2.7% 20129 8.0% 4102 26.0% 21571 41.9% 62703 37.2% 97994 39.0% 69915 41.2% IP PUCKY 0.0% 7508 14.6% 31532 18.7% 30001 11.9% 18088 10.7% The Monsters 0.0% 0.0% 10785 6.4% 20483 8.1% 13478 7.9% SATYR RORY 0.0% 689 1.3% 6309 3.7% 3368 1.3% 1776 1.0% 484 3.1% 2425 4.7% 11111 6.6% 17338 6.9% 10561 6.2% 484 3.1% 10622 20.6% 59736 35.5% 71190 28.3% 43903 25.9% IP 0.0% 1821 3.5% 15982 9.5% 44435 17.7% 31111 18.3% 4586 29.0% 34015 66.1% 138421 82.2% 213620 85.0% 144928 85.5% 11026 69.8% 16228 31.5% 27999 16.6% 36840 14.7% 23752 14.0% 195 1.2% 1209 2.3% 1924 1.1% 888 0.4% 888 0.5% 15807 100.0% 51451 100.0% 168343 100.0% 251347 100.0% 169568 100.0% Hello Kitty Molly IP IP 1 4.1 20 70-90 IP 21 IP 2 4.2 2020 IP 2002 IP33 / 36 3 20 80-90 21 Hello Kitty IP Molly IP 4 IP IP IP IP 2020 IP IP 2020 IP 14.7% IP IP IP 5 1 1974-1998 1 2 3 Kidult 4 2 Hello Kitty IP Hello Kitty IP IP + IP IP IP 3 21 IP 21 2021-2023 11.11/16.45/24.10 EPS 0.8/1.2/1.7 PE 61.8/41.7/28.5 6 IP34 / 36 ( ) 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E ( ) 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 717 6,256 8,222 10,049 12,686 1683 2513 4448 6549 9512 325 5,680 6,565 8,069 10,440 -593 -919 -1597 -2338 -3358 246 347 496 603 721 -364 -630 -1072 -1592 -2349 96 225 237 252 273 -124 -219 -378 -552 -780 50 3 - 0 - 0 - 0 / 15 34 65 102 153 350 715 924 1,125 1,252 617 779 1466 2170 3178 104 238 378 479 576 / -5 -9 -13 -18 -23 246 477 546 646 676 5 4 5 6 7 1,066 6,971 9,146 11,174 13,938 617 774 1458 2158 3162 382 665 926 1,587 1,864 -147 -184 -347 -513 -752 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 116 164 237 278 469 591 1111 1645 2410 333 549 762 1,350 1,586 EBITDA 713 981 1764 2551 3616 92 175 210 240 260 458 560 1066 1579 2314 - 0 45 - 0 - 0 - 0 EPS( ) 0.33 0.42 0.79 1.17 1.72 92 175 210 240 260 474 840 1,136 1,827 2,124 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 0 1 1 1 1 593 6,128 8,007 9,344 11,811 (%) 227.6 49.3 77.0 47.2 45.2 593 6,129 8,008 9,345 11,812 (%) 353.9 26.2 88.2 48.0 46.5 - 0 2 2 2 2 (%) 367.7 25.9 88.1 48.1 46.5 1,066 6,971 9,146 11,174 13,938 (%) 64.8 63.4 64.1 64.3 64.7 (%) 27.9 23.5 25.0 25.1 25.3 ROE(%) 79.1 9.6 13.9 17.6 20.4 ROIC(%) 68.5 9.4 13.5 17.2 20.0 ( ) 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E (%) 44.5 12.0 12.4 16.4 15.2 503 745 1,224 1,775 2,648 (%) -39.3 -89.8 -79.4 -83.8 -86.2 469 591 1,111 1,645 2,410 1.9 9.4 8.9 6.3 6.8 109 200 302 387 443 1.3 8.7 8.1 5.9 5.8 -112 6 -267 -289 -301 37 -52 78 32 96 2.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 -118 -301 -209 -181 -177 10.4 8.5 10.6 11.9 14.4 -118 -224 -140 -101 -97 12.2 11.1 11.4 11.7 13.0 0 -77 -69 -80 -80 9.5 5.7 6.9 9.6 12.8 -156 4,911 -130 -90 -100 ( ) -79 4,911 0 0 0 ( ) 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 -76 0 0 0 0 ( ) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 -0 0 -130 -90 -100 ( ) 0.4 4.4 5.7 6.7 8.4 -1 0 0 0 0 228 5,355 885 1,504 2,371 P/E 146.5 116.3 61.8 41.7 28.5 325 5,680 6,565 8,069 10,440 P/B 115.8 11.2 8.6 7.4 5.835 / 36 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50036 / 36 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065