资源描述
1 / 14 2021 05 02 3 - -2021.4.14 2020 1 - -2021.4.11 - -2021.3.29 2021Q1 2021 1 S0790520050001 S0790120100011 2021 Q1 5 286 +67.3% 272 +4.5% 100 +42.1% 85 +1.9% 63 +36.0% 2020Q1 2021Q1 2021Q1 +15.4% -13.2% 2020Q1 2019Q1 -12.3% -6.0% 2021Q1 1 2 3 2021Q1 128 99 -7.0% -3.7% -12.9% 2021Q1 1356 +6.2% 662 -8.8% 437 +12.0% -6.7% -7.0% -8.8% +41.0% +18.3% 2021Q1 95.2% 95.7% 2021Q1 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 2021Q1 7.9% 6.4% 4.6% 3.1% P/EV -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 3002 / 14 1 . 3 1.1 . 3 1.2 . 4 2 2021Q1 . 5 2.1 2019 . 5 2.2 . 6 2.3 . 6 2.4 . 7 2.5 . 8 3 . 9 4 . 10 5 . 12 1 . 3 2 . 3 3 2021Q1 2020Q1 . 4 4 60% . 4 5 . 4 6 . 5 7 . 5 8 . 5 9 . 6 10 . 6 11 . 7 12 2021Q1 . 8 13 2021Q1 . 8 14 . 9 15 . 9 16 2021Q1 . 9 17 . 10 18 2021Q1 . 10 19 2021Q1 . 10 20 2021Q1 . 11 21 10 3.2% . 11 22 P/EV . 12 1 +15.4% 2019Q1 . 5 2 2021 . 7 3 . 12 4 . 123 / 14 1 1.1 2021 1 5 3735 +10.6% 3403 +3.7% 1513 +9.4% 1738 +2.9% 814 +19.4% 286 +67.3% 272 +4.5% 100 +42.1% 85 +1.9% 63 +36.0% 2020Q1 2021Q1 +57.8% +42.1% +36.7% +35.7% -14.2% 1 2 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020Q1 2020A 2021Q1 YOY -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020Q1 2020A 2021Q1 YOY4 / 14 3 2021Q1 2020Q1 1.2 2021Q1 +8.9% 2020Q1 5.3% 2020A 4.9% +15.3% +18.5% 2017 68.3% +30.4% 2020 +9.6% 4 60% 5 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% % 2020Q1 2021Q1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2020A 2021Q1 % -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -YOY -YOY -YOY -YOY % 2020A 2021Q15 / 14 6 7 2 2021Q1 2.1 2019 2019 2021Q1 +15.4% -13.2% 2020Q1 2019Q1 -12.3% -6.0% 2021Q1 1 2 3 2021Q1 2.0pct 1.9pct 8 1 +15.4% 2019Q1 2020Q1 2020A 2021Q1 2020A 2021Q1 2021Q1/2019Q1-1 49,188 148,915 60,527 -7.2% 23.1% 3.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % YOY 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A % YOY -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020Q1 2020H1 2020Q3 2020A 2021Q1 6 / 14 2020Q1 2020A 2021Q1 2020A 2021Q1 2021Q1/2019Q1-1 16,453 49,575 18,980 -34.7% 15.4% -12.3% 33.40% 33.30% 31.40% 14.0pct 2.0pct 5.4pct 2.2 2021Q1 3239 +5.2% 954 +3.9% 634 +8.8% 2020Q1 +35.9% 2020Q1 -31.1% +23.1% 2020Q1 -16.3% +9.6% 2020Q1 +136.0% -6.4% 2020Q1 +16.5% 9 10 2.3 2021Q1 128 99 -7.0% -3.7% -12.9% 2020Q1 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 7 / 14 2018 1 2 11 2.4 2021 2 2021 / 2021 1 6 2021 1 11 2021 7 2021 1 20 2021 2021 31 2021 1 22 2021 2 18 20214 2021 2 26 0 50 100 150 200 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q18 / 14 / 2021 3 22 2021 4 1 2020 2021 6 2021 4 7 2021 4 8 2021 477 2021 4 13 2021 4 13 2021 4 22 2.5 2021Q1 1356 +6.2% 662 -8.8% 437 +12.0% -6.7% -7.0% -8.8% +41.0% +18.3% 50% 12 2021Q1 13 2021Q1 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 9 / 14 14 15 2021Q1 95.2% 95.7% 16 2021Q1 3 2021Q1 4.28 4.5% 3.78 1.1% 1.68 2.0% 9574 0.9% 2021Q1 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 2021Q1 7.9% 6.4% 4.6% 3.1% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 10 / 14 17 18 2021Q1 19 2021Q1 4 2021Q1 2021Q1 1 2 3 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 11 / 14 20 2021Q1 3.2% 21 10 3.2% Wind P/EV -50% 0% 50% 100% 202001 202004 202007 202010 202101 % 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 % 10 75012 / 14 22 P/EV Wind 3 PEV EVPS 5 P/EV 2021E 0.87 37.93 1.03 21% 0.76 1.00 72.65 1.23 3% 0.88 0.69 47.74 0.97 9% 0.62 0.63 77.13 0.91 4% 0.54 Wind Wind 2021 4 30 4 EVPS PEV BVPS PB 2021/5/2 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2020A 2021E 601318.SH 72.50 72.65 82.34 93.80 1.00 0.88 0.77 41.72 46.05 1.74 1.57 Wind 2021 4 30 5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2016/1/8 2017/1/8 2018/1/8 2019/1/8 2020/1/8 2021/1/8 PEV13 / 14 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50014 / 14 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
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