资源描述
2021 S0790120100007 2021 5 10 S0790520080001 chenbaojian 1. 2021 5 7 14.15% 300 5.16% 2021Q1 32.68% 2019 21.93% 2021 4 30 TTM 37.83 62.31 2. 5G 5G 5G ICT CPU ERP ERP 3. 1 2.0 2 3 4 5 6 IT 4. IT1 5G 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 51.1 300 Wind 12 300 2021 4 30 14.58% 300 30.16% 300 1 12 300 2021.4.30 2 12 2021.4.30 Wind -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% SW 300 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 1401.1 300 Wind 300 2021 5 7 14.15% 300 5.16% 300 3 300 2021.5.7) 4 2021 2021.5.7) Wind -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2021/1/4 2021/2/4 2021/3/4 2021/4/4 2021/5/4 3001.1 Wind *ST A +182.68% +138.79% +58.4% +49.81% 44.94% 5 12 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 6 2021 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Wind *ST1.2 Wind 2021 4 30 TTM 37.83 62.31 300 21.9 300 1.73 2011 2.71 2021Q1 3% 2021 Wind 2020 4.2% 2019 5.12% 2021Q1 3% 7 8 Wind 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 SW 300 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 ( )1.3 2020Q1 2021 Q1 25% 2020 2019 2021 Q1 19030 26.5% 2371 25.9% 1-2 2.9 2020 81616 13.36% 2019 3.04 10676 8.55% 2019 1.19 9 2021Q1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 (%) (1.3 2020 Wind 2020 10.22% 44.08% 2020 255 7885.07 10.22% 262.04 44.08% 10 2020 10.22% 11 2020 44.08% Wind 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0 100 200 300 400 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( )1.3 2021Q1 Wind 2021Q1 32.68% 2021 Q1 1645.13 32.68% 2019 21.93% 34.31 342.13% 12 2021Q1 32.68% 13 2021 342.13% Wind -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 ( ) -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 ( )1.3 2020 Wind 2021 Q1 -401.13 1.65% 2020 701.33 35.11% 2021Q1 -401.13 1.65% 2021Q1 2021 2020 14 2020 35.11% 119.73% 47.05% 35.11% -1.65% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 ( )1 5G 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 52.1 5G 5G 2021-2023 5G 3 KPI 5G 2021 4 5G 2021-2023 2023 (1) 5G 18 5G 3000 (2) 5G 40% 5G 200% (3) 5G 35% 5G 100 2020 5G 5G 15 5G 2021-2023 20232.1 5G 5G 4G 3 B C 5G + 5G 3 5G 15 16 5G 1 5G 3 152.1 5G 5G 5G 17 5G2.1 5G C 5G C 4K/8K 5G 2021 5G 80% 5G 2.8 18: 2020 -2021 3 5G 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 5G2.1 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 19: 5G2.2 ICT 2011 CPU/OS 2:2.2 CPU ARM X86 CPU ICT CPU DDR4 DDR4 LPDDR4X DRAM 3:CPU2.2 CPU 1 920 ARM 7nm SPECint 25% 30% 2 CPU2020 150 650% 13 D2000 2021 200 20 3 AMD ZEN x86 2020 10.22 162% 20:SPECint 920 1800 1350 1350 1210 570 270 90 0 500 1000 1500 2000 SPECINT2006RATE2.2 UOS Linux 1999 Linux Linux 2019 CEC UOS(unity operating system) UOS 2020 UOS Linux 4: UOS Linux2.2 1 OceanBase GaussDB 2015 2 WPS PC WPS 21: 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 国产数据库产品规模（亿元） 国外数据库产品规模（亿元） 国产占比SAP, 34.3% Oracle, 19.6% , 14.4% , 8.2% , 6.0% , 4.6% Infor, 2.5% QAD, 2.5% , 7.9% 2.2 ERP IT168 2009 SAP Oracle ERP 2019 ERP 20% 2020 2020 8 2680 ERP 22:2009 ERP IT168 23:2019 ERP , 40% , 20% , 18% SAP, 14% Oracle, 3% , 52.2 DCS DCS DCS 2010 30% 2019 50% 24:2010 DCS 30% , 12.60% , 11.90% ABB, 11.80% , 11.80% , 11.60% , 9.90% , 8.40% , 8.20% , 2.90% , 10.90% 25:2019 DCS 50% , 27% , 16% , 15% , 10% , 7% ABB, 6% , 6% , 3% , 3% , 72.2 2D CAD 2018 2D 3D CAD 26:2018 27:2018 广联达, 14.4% Dassault, 12.6% Siemens, 11.7% 神舟软件, 9.8% Synopsys, 6.5% Cadence, 3.9% Autodesk, 3.6% Ansys, 2.5% 中望龙腾, 1.6% PTC, 1.5% 其他, 31.9% 广联达 Dassault Siemens 神舟软件 Synopsys Cadence Autodesk Ansys 中望龙腾 PTC 其他 Siemens, 12% 国电南瑞, 9% 宝信软件, 9% GE, 6% Schneider, 6% 和利时, 6% honeywell, 6% 石化盈科, 5% ABB, 5% Rockwell, 2% 其他, 34% Siemens 国电南瑞 宝信软件 GE Schneider 和利时 honeywell 石化盈科 ABB Rockwell 其他1 5G 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 53.1.1 360 28:3.1.1 2019 7:3.1.1 2.0 1 2.0: 1.0 2.0 2 2020 29:3.1.2 2020 78.35 46.92 59.89%; 19.93 25.44% 2021 95.81 22.28% 30: 2021 95.81 21% 22% 22% 23% 23% 24% 24% 25% 25% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 安全服务( 亿美 元) 安全硬件( 亿美 元) 安全软件( 亿美 元) 同 比增速3.1.2 Wind 2020 2021 Q1 2020 2020Q3-2021Q1 2021Q1 31: 2020 Q3 Q4 2021Q1 32: 2020 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2020 2019 Wind3.1.2 2020 2020 33: -0.27% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 34 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 20203.2.1 Wind Gartner 2019 1883 20.9% 17.6% 2023 3597 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 35 2023 35973.2.1 IT Gartner 2021 18.4 3049 2020 2575 IT Gartner 2024 IT 14.2 2020 9.1 8: 2021 18.4 2019 2020 2021 2022 BPaaS 45212 44741 47521 50336 PaaS 37512 43823 55486 68964 SaaS 102064 101480 117773 138261 12836 14880 17001 19934 IaaS 44457 51421 65264 82225 DaaS 616 1204 1945 2542 242696 257549 304990 362263 Gartner40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 Google Cloud 0% 10% 20% 30% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 Azure 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 SALEFORCE 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 AWS 3.2 Wind 2020Q3 AWS 116 29% 2020Q4 SALEFORCE 58.17 20% 2021Q1 Azure 151.2 23% 2021Q1 40.47 45.7% 36 2020 AWS 38 2020 Azure 37 2020 SALEFORCE 39 2020 Google Cloud Wind Wind Wind 3.2.150% 0% 50% 100% 0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q3 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 200 400 600 800 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3.2 Wind 40 2020 42 43 2020 Wind Wind Wind 41 SALEFORCE 3.2.10% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2024 3755 2019 1334 38.6% 23% 2024 3755.95 IT IT IT 44 3.2.20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 5 10 15 20 25 2020Q3 2020 2021Q1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 10 20 30 40 50 2020Q3 2020 2021Q1 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0 20 40 60 80 100 2020Q3 2020 2021Q1 Wind 2021Q1 11.49% 49.89% 107.749% 2020 34.77% 45 2020 47 43 2020 Wind Wind Wind 46 3.2.2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 5 10 15 20 2018 2019 2020 营业收入：亿元 同比增长2019 1720 16.45% 18.22% 2020 2040 49 2020 2040 3.3.1 + 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 中国DCS 行 业市场比重 DCS 50 DCS 3.3.1 +5 2016-2020 2016-2020 2018- 2020 8 2018-2020 9 3.3.1 +2018 57.38% 17.02% 8.5% 2019 ERP CAD/CAE/CAPP 50% SCADA CAM MES 20% ERP 51 2018 17.02% 3.3.2 , 57.38% , 17.11% , 17.02% , 8.50% 52 2018 ERP CAD 502019 28.1% 10 2017-2019 5.77% 2019 20 2018 2019 9.5% 3.1% 14.9% 7.4% 4 5 3.3.2 23.7% 25.2% 27.3% 27.7% 28.1% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 中国制造 业增加 值占全 球比例 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 53 54 2019 50DCS 2021Q1 146% ERP 2021Q1 58% 24% 2D CAD 2021 52% 3.3.2 55 Wind -30% 20% 70% 120% 1702.0 2025 PA( ) CA( ) 50% HA C-V2X 50% 2035 2023 2381 2019 3.4 56 2.0 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 57 2019 1125Tier1 2019 Tier 1 2021 AIoT 3.4 582015 2015-2020 3.4 102021Q1 7.91 79% 2021Q1 20.42 79% 3.4 64 Wind 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 65 WindIT S2500 3.5 56 2020-2021 602016 12 2016-2020 2020 3.4 11 2020-2021 6020% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 20 40 60 80 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 20 40 60 80 100 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 50 100 150 200 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 Wind 2021Q1 2021Q1 178% 296% 2021Q1 69% 57 2021Q1 59 60 2021Q1 Wind Wind Wind 58 2021Q1 3.42021 IT IT 2024 1000 IDC 2019 IT 548.20 11.50% 2024 1,041.50 2019 2024 13.70% 3.6 IT 66 IT IDC 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E IT 支 出 （ 亿 元） 同比增速IT 2019 1874 2018 110 99.36% 3 3.11 2017 5 3.6 IT 67 2019 3 2018-2019 CHINC 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2016 2018 2019IT 1 2021 2021 3 15 3.6 IT 12 20198,431.98 9,545.81 10,579.23 12,475.28 13,910.31 15,205.87 16,399.13 17,428.50 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 政 府卫生 支出（ 亿元） 2 2020 / 1 , 3.6 IT 68 2012-2019 13 2020 83 2020 13 18 2021 2021 IT 4 5G AI 5G IOT 3.6 IT 701 5G 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 54 5G 5G 1 5G 2 5G C 3 5G ICT CPU ERP ERP4 IT IT4 Wind 14 2021.05.10 PE 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 300454.SZ 1,050.91 10.09 13.49 18.49 104.2 77.9 56.8 688561.SH 634.42 1.66 6.72 8.62 382.2 94.4 73.6 688023.SH 195.07 1.69 2.36 3.2 115.4 82.7 61.0 002439.SZ 271.11 10.51 13.72 16.85 25.8 19.8 16.1 300369.SZ 119.83 4.19 5.58 7.47 28.6 21.5 16.0 300188.SZ 129.72 4.87 6.18 7.93 26.6 21.0 16.4 300229.SZ 57.07 2.88 3.46 4.24 19.8 16.5 13.5 688111.SH 1,605.29 11.69 15.27 19.41 137.3 105.1 82.7 600588.SH 1,063.58 9.03 11.05 13.49 117.8 96.3 78.8 002410.SH 867.00 6.69 9.97 12.57 129.6 87.0 69.0 688095.SH 102.97 1.46 2.00 2.64 70.5 51.5 39.0 603039.SH 163.47 2.31 2.74 3.2 70.8 59.7 51.1 688369.SH 42.80 1.39 1.75 2.18 30.8 24.5 19.6 300624.SZ 49.28 1.56 1.95 2.66 31.6 25.3 18.5 300378.SZ 46.30 1.43 1.69 1.91 32.4 27.4 24.24 Wind 14 2021.05.10 PE 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 603613.SH 291.86 5.13 7.88 11.99 56.9 37.0 24.3 300682.SZ 157.56 8.51 10.82 13.74 18.5 14.6 11.5 688208.SH 319.73 6.22 8.50 12.13 51.4 37.6 26.4 300496.SZ 518.15 6.1 8.17 10.92 84.9 63.4 47.4 603516.SH 40.67 2.01 2.89 3.74 20.2 14.1 10.9 603019.SH 365.00 10.35 12.85 15.25 35.3 28.4 23.9 300271.SZ 140.28 7.78 10.07 12.64 18.0 13.9 11.1 300036.SZ 71.76 3.02 3.82 4.63 23.8 18.8 15.5 300253.SZ 308.81 6.6 8.90 12.14 46.8 34.7 25.4 300451.SZ 120.45 4.68 6.33 8.43 25.7 19.0 14.3 002777.SZ 51.44 2.69 3.56 4.57 19.1 14.4 11.31 5G 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 51 IT 2 3612 A 300 500 buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C51788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5
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