资源描述
1 / 24 002714.SZ 2021 02 19 2021/2/18 ( ) 118.80 ( ) 139.92/65.18 ( ) 4,466.08 ( ) 3,017.71 ( ) 37.59 ( ) 25.40 3 (%) 79.55 - -2020.10.19 - -2020.7.19 - -2020.6.4 S0790520030001 S0790120090006 3.0 3 2020 2021-2022 2020-2022 280/403/343 315/276/161 +358%/+44%/-15% EPS 7.4/10.7/9.1 PE 16.0/11.1/13.0 3.0 2019 13.1 / +0.2 +0.1 +0.4 +0.1 +0.2 2020 14.0 / +0.7 +0.6 2021 14.5 / 2021 / + 34% +1.0 0.1 -0.1 2020-2022 2020-2022 1811/4000/6000 2019Q4 2020 12 30% 2021 2021 10% 2021 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E ( ) 13,388 20,221 55,840 100,985 125,558 YOY(%) 33.3 51.0 176.1 80.8 24.3 ( ) 520 6,114 27,970 40,286 34,304 YOY(%) -78.0 1075.4 357.5 44.0 -14.8 (%) 9.8 36.0 62.4 49.4 35.0 (%) 3.9 30.2 50.1 39.9 27.3 ROE(%) 3.9 20.0 50.5 42.8 27.0 EPS( / ) 0.14 1.63 7.44 10.72 9.13 P/E( ) 858.5 73.0 16.0 11.1 13.0 P/B( ) 45.4 21.6 9.4 5.2 3.8 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2020-02 2020-06 2020-10 3002 / 24 1 . 4 2 3.0 . 6 2.1 . 6 2.2 . 7 2.3 . 9 2.4 . 10 2.5 . 11 3 2020-2022 . 13 3.1 . 13 3.2 . 14 4 . 15 4.1 . 15 4.1.1 . 15 4.1.2 2020-2022 1811/4000/6000 . 16 4.1.3 2021-2022 14 / . 17 4.1.4 . 18 4.2 . 18 4.2.1 PB-ROE . 18 4.2.2 2017 . 19 4.2.3 3-5 50% . 20 4.2.4 . 21 5 . 21 . 22 1 2010-2020 CAGR 48% . 4 2 . 4 3 . 5 4 2017 . 5 5 . 6 6 . 7 7 2019 +0.49 / . 7 8 “ ” . 8 9 2019 +0.26 / . 8 10 150 / . 8 11 2019 +18% . 10 12 2019 +41% . 10 13 2019 . 10 14 2020 +0.91 / . 12 15 2020Q2-Q3 . 12 16 2019Q2 . 133 / 24 17 . 14 18 2021 . 15 19 PB mrq 3.5x . 18 20 2017 PE 27x . 20 1 2019 1.98 / . 6 2 0.08 / . 9 3 2020Q3 5500-6000 . 9 4 2019 0.05 / . 10 5 2019 0.23 / . 11 6 . 12 7 0.21-0.71 / . 13 8 2019-2020 . 14 9 2021-2022 . 15 10 2020-2022 1811/3910/7367 . 16 11 2020-2022 . 17 12 2020-2022 14 / . 17 13 . 18 14 ROE . 19 15 . 19 16 . 20 17 2020-2021 . 214 / 24 1 2010 CAGR 48% 2020 1811.6 / / 1152.4/594.4/64.3 10-12.5 / 13.1-14.4 / 1 2010-2020 CAGR 48% 2 2014.3-2016.6 214% 2019.2-2020.8 344% 2016.6-2019.2 46% 154% 2017 132% 11.12 / 2017 2% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 5 10 15 20 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 / /5 / 24 3 2016.6 2016.6-2017.1 14% 9% 2017 2017.1-2018.1 17% 165% 2018 2018.1-2018.8 8% 32% 2018.8-2019.2 18% 54% 4 2017 2020.9 2021.2.5 13% 2020.7-2020.10 23% 2021.2.10 80% 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2014/2/14 2015/2/14 2016/2/14 2017/2/14 2018/2/14 2019/2/14 2020/2/14 ( 22 / 80% 214% 46% 154% 231% 344% 13% 19% 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2016/6/10 2016/7/10 2016/8/10 2016/9/10 2016/10/10 2016/11/10 2016/12/10 2017/1/10 2017/2/10 2017/3/10 2017/4/10 2017/5/10 2017/6/10 2017/7/10 2017/8/10 2017/9/10 2017/10/10 2017/11/10 2017/12/10 2018/1/10 2018/2/10 2018/3/10 2018/4/10 2018/5/10 2018/6/10 2018/7/10 2018/8/10 2018/9/10 2018/10/10 2018/11/10 2018/12/10 2019/1/10 ( 22 / 14% 9% 17% 165% 8% 32% 18% 546 / 24 2 3.0 3.0 2017 2019 5 2019 13.13 / 1.98 / 0.20 / 1 2019 1.98 / 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7.60 5.99 6.07 6.40 6.89 +0.49 0.98 0.95 0.98 0.90 1.16 +0.26 0.64 0.65 0.71 0.66 1.06 +0.40 1.03 1.10 1.13 1.03 0.83 -0.20 1.28 1.42 1.55 1.54 2.42 +0.88 11.53 10.10 10.44 10.54 12.37 +1.84 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.10 +0.05 0.48 0.41 0.56 0.49 0.72 +0.23 0.60 0.47 0.38 0.45 0.48 +0.03 12.15 10.65 11.12 11.15 13.13 +1.98 2.1 1.0 2.0 3.07 / 24 85 6 0.2-0.3 / 2019 0.2-0.3 / 2019 0.49 / 0.2-0.3 / 7 2019 +0.49 / 2.2 30 85 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / / /8 / 24 8 150 / 15 0.08 / 2019 0.18 / 2019 0.26 / 0.18 / 9 2019 +0.26 / 10 150 / 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / / / 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2015 2016 2017 2018 20199 / 24 2 0.08 / 20 15 10 100 0.04 0.06 0.08 150 0.06 0.08 0.12 200 0.08 0.11 0.17 2.3 2019 +61% 0.40 / 2019 +41% 2019 0.2-0.3 / ,2020 2020Q3 9.6 / 82%/70% 1038 5500-6000 1 2 2019 18% 0.1-0.2 / 3 2020Q3 5500-6000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q3E 2798 2802 4551 12059 20874 23555 40274 78720 79% 79% 78% 70% 77% 79% 80% 82% 2099 2102 3368 8803 15029 16724 28192 55104 75% 75% 74% 73% 72% 71% 70% 70% 3552 3567 5832 17214 27003 29978 50319 96000 131 186 192 311 724 1101 1025 1811 / 623 885 570 354 482 658 364 329 890 890 900 905 910 917 1038 1038 187 187 303 797 1368 1534 2927 572210 / 24 11 2019 +18% 12 2019 +41% 2.4 2019 0.05 / 2019 0.23 / 0.14 / 0.02 / 1 2020 2 2020-2021 0.55/0.08 / 13 2019 4 2019 0.05 / 2018 2019 0.0327 0.0606 +0.0279 0.0012 0.0019 +0.0007 0.0004 0.0001 -0.0003 0.0005 0.0039 +0.0034 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 2016 2017 2018 2019 202011 / 24 2018 2019 0.0022 0.0102 +0.0080 0.0013 0.0096 +0.0083 0.0020 0.0038 +0.0018 0.0012 0.0033 +0.0021 0.0003 0.0018 +0.0015 0.0005 0.0015 +0.0010 0.0028 0.0031 +0.0002 0.0451 0.0997 +0.0546 5 2019 0.23 / 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 +0.0123 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 +0.0006 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 +0.0019 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 +0.0021 0.15 0.14 0.24 0.22 0.36 +0.1418 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 +0.0009 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.0006 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.0005 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 +0.0009 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 +0.0135 0.04 0.03 0.09 0.08 0.10 +0.0245 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.06 +0.0263 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 +0.0007 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 +0.0061 0.48 0.41 0.56 0.49 0.72 +0.2304 2.5 2020 14.04 / 0.91 / 1 2.7 7.3 0.67 / 2 0.55 / 2020Q2 2020Q2-Q3 -0.96/-0.93 /12 / 24 14 2020 +0.91 / 15 2020Q2-Q3 2021 2021 / + 34% +1.00 / 0.08 / -0.10 / 2021 14.52 / 6 2020 2021 14.04 14.52 +0.91 +0.48 +0.67 +0.99 / + 73% 34% -0.18 0 +0.05 +0.06 -0.10 -0.10 +0.05 +0.06 -0.07 0.00 +0.55 -0.47 -0.06 -0.06 0.3-0.4 / 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5 / 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 /13 / 24 0.21-0.71 / 7 0.21-0.71 / 0.20 0.30 0.25 0.04 0.17 0.11 0.15 0.25 0.20 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.15 0.20 0.18 -0.40 -0.30 -0.35 0.21 0.71 0.46 3 2020-2022 3.1 2018Q4-2019Q1 2 2018Q3 69 2019Q1 60 2019Q2 2020 Q2 10 2020 / 262.4/131.9 16 2019Q2 1 2019/2020 35%/25% 2 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 50 100 150 200 250 30014 / 24 8 2019-2020 PSY MSY H2 2018 25 7% 23 52 -50 33 1101 10% 2019 24 32% 16 67 47 121 1025 35% 2020 21 22% 16 112 226 239 1811 25% 17 3.2 2019Q4 2020 12 30% 2021 2021 10% 2021 / 114 120-15015 / 24 18 2021 4 4.1 4.1.1 2-3 45% 2022H2 2 2021 3 2021Q1-Q2 2020Q4 2021Q1-Q3 2021Q3 2021Q4 1 2 2-3 / 2020Q1-2022Q4 32 / 17 / 2020-2022 30/26/20 / 9 2021-2022 / / / 2020Q1E 32 2048 6075 2020Q2E 29 1959 6136 2020Q3E 34 1792 6023 2020Q4E 28 1008 4399 2021Q1E 28 1500 4500 2021Q2E 24 1300 4300 2021Q3E 25 1100 4100 2021Q4E 26 1000 3900 2022Q1E 25 950 3700 2022Q2E 21 900 3500 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5 2020/6 2020/7 2020/8 2020/9 2020/10 2020/11 2020/12 2021/1 2021/2 2021/3 2021/4 2021/5 2021/6 2021/7 2021/8 2021/9 2021/10 2021/11 2021/1216 / 24 / / / 2022Q3E 19 850 3300 2022Q4E 17 800 3100 2020 4.1.2 2020-2022 1811/4000/6000 2020 1811 2021-2022 PSY 22/23 15%/13% 2021-2022 4000/6000 10 2020-2022 1811/3910/7367 MSY PSY 2020E 16 21 22% 112 239 1811 2021E 19 22 15% 223 293 4000 2022E 20 23 13% 314 421 6000 1 2 2020-2022 1152/2940/4934 595/981/982 64/79/8417 / 24 11 2020-2022 2020Q1E 151 106 0 256 2020Q2E 246 167 8 422 2020Q3E 270 195 45 510 2020Q4E 485 127 11 623 2020E 1152 595 64 1811 2021Q1E 648 176 16 840 2021Q2E 692 250 18 960 2021Q3E 778 241 21 1040 2021Q4E 823 313 24 1160 2021E 2940 981 79 4000 2022Q1E 1012 227 21 1608 2022Q2E 1174 245 21 1764 2022Q3E 1289 250 21 1920 2022Q4E 1458 261 21 2075 2022E 4934 982 84 6000 4.1.3 2021-2022 14 / 2021-2022 2020Q1-2022Q4 14.8 / 14.2 / 2020-2022 14.0/14.5/14.3 / 12 2020-2022 14 / / / / 2020Q1E 14.8 733 1603 2020Q2E 13.8 656 1526 2020Q3E 12.9 660 1530 2020Q4E 14.7 632 1502 2021Q1E 14.5 580 1450 2021Q2E 14.5 580 1450 2021Q3E 14.5 580 1450 2021Q4E 14.6 580 1444 2022Q1E 14.4 550 1394 2022Q2E 14.3 540 1394 2022Q3E 14.3 530 1394 2022Q4E 14.2 520 1394 202018 / 24 4.1.4 2020-2022 286/402/343 315/276/161 +357%/+44%/-15% EPS 7.44/10.72/9.13 13 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 134 202 558 1010 1256 YOY 33% 51% 176% 81% 24% 5 61 280 403 343 YOY -78% 1075% 357% 44% -15% EPS 0.14 1.63 7.44 10.72 9.13 ROE 4% 20% 50% 43% 27% 4.2 4.2.1 PB-ROE 2014-2019 ROE 21% PB 7.0 x 18.4x/3.5x 19 PB mrq 3.5x Wind 3 3-4 / 2020-2022 ROE 50% 2016-2018 27% 0 5 10 15 20 2014/4/1 2015/4/1 2016/4/1 2017/4/1 2018/4/1 2019/4/1 2020/4/1 PB19 / 24 14 ROE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E ROE 5% 22% 51% 26% 4% 35% 69% 52% 30% 3% 20% 41% 24% 4% 30% 45% 36% 25% 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 PB 18.6x 13.0 x ROE PB 5-6x 2021/2/18 4466 15 2014-2019 PB 18.4 PB 2015/7/21 PB 3.5 PB 2017/8/3 PB 8.9 PB 5.5 PB 7.0 2019 PB 18.6 PB 2019/9/5 PB 13.0 2020E 474 2021E 858 2022E 1185 PB 5-6x 2021/2/18 4466 Wind 4.2.2 2017 2021 4000 +121% +0.48 / 14.52 / 2021 403 +44% 2017 2017 2017 27x20 / 24 2017 2021 PE 20 x 20 2017 PE 27x Wind 4.2.3 3-5 50% = + 350 / 150 / 2019-2020 13.1-14.0 / 17-20 / 3 1 2 6% 3 4 / 600 / 3-5 1 50% 2021-2022 196/304 PE 23/15x 16 2021E 2022E 2940 4934 981 982 79 84 4000 6000 / 600 600 300 300 1500 1500 9 14 19 24 29 PE /2017 EPS21 / 24 2021E 2022E 176 296 29 29 12 13 218 338 196 304 PE 23x 15x 4.2.4 3.0 3 PE 16.0/11.1/13.0 2020 2021 2022 17 2020-2021 EPS PE(X) 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 002714.SZ 118.80 4466.08 1.63 7.44 10.72 9.13 73.04 15.97 11.09 13.02 000876.SZ 23.34 1051.76 1.20 2.06 4.16 3.40 19.45 11.33 5.61 6.86 300498.SZ 17.55 1118.54 2.63 1.79 1.69 0.17 6.67 9.80 10.38 103.24 002157.SZ 16.29 504.57 0.67 3.71 3.98 1.65 24.31 4.39 4.09 9.87 002567.SZ 7.97 78.03 0.24 1.12 1.05 0.76 33.21 7.12 7.59 10.49 002100.SZ 11.46 123.21 0.60 2.45 1.99 1.05 19.10 4.68 5.76 10.91 29.30 8.88 7.42 25.73 Wind 2021 2 18 522 / 24 ( ) 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E ( ) 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 9781 19592 19247 42077 52184 13388 20221 55840 100985 125558 2778 10933 4903 4434 8269 12074 12951 20972 51068 81643 0 16 0 0 0 22 27 84 151 188 10 8 48 49 73 54 111 251 505 667 93 508 508 1459 1072 500 691 2369 3837 3767 5813 7166 12826 35173 41808 91 112 447 808 1130 1087 962 962 962 962 538 528 1395 1569 2408 20061 33294 61053 122772 146356 1 0 0 0 0 133 153 191 232 271 375 460 620 1546 2200 15006 22699 39713 83247 100095 0 0 0 0 0 351 432 470 518 564 70 42 36 42 48 4571 10010 20678 38775 45426 -0 6 1 2 2 29842 52887 80300 164849 198540 524 6315 30978 44636 38005 13588 18169 13008 48397 46294 56 61 58 49 56 4715 4256 6257 10613 12824 54 57 39 48 49 3462 8457 3426 25803 22655 526 6319 30998 44637 38012 5411 5456 3325 11981 10814 -2 -17 -80 -126 -104 2547 3006 5703 11963 11319 528 6336 31078 44763 38115 2460 2907 5646 11898 11252 8 222 3108 4476 3812 87 99 58 64 67 520 6114 27970 40286 34304 16134 21175 18711 60359 57613 EBITDA 2176 8125 33278 49476 45345 1418 8604 11712 16188 19999 EPS( ) 0.14 1.63 7.44 10.72 9.13 2085 2205 3759 3759 3759 2938 9847 8303 8303 8303 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 4806 10648 33612 67210 96661 12289 23108 49877 88301 120927 (%) 33.3 51.0 176.1 80.8 24.3 29842 52887 80300 164849 198540 (%) -78.1 1105.2 390.6 44.1 -14.9 (%) -78.0 1075.4 357.5 44.0 -14.8 (%) 9.8 36.0 62.4 49.4 35.0 (%) 3.9 30.2 50.1 39.9 27.3 ( ) 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E ROE(%) 3.9 20.0 50.5 42.8 27.0 1358 9989 21559 56283 35647 ROIC(%) 4.2 20.4 49.5 39.8 26.2 528 6336 31078 44763 38115 1285 1684 2059 4178 6432 (%) 54.1 40.0 23.3 36.6 29.0 538 528 1395 1569 2408 (%) 46.9 -7.4 13.8 20.5 14.1 -70 -42 -36 -42 -48 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.1 -967 1372 -12948 5818 -11257 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 43 111 12 -3 -3 -5781 -12799 -29793 -65852 -29965 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 5047 13121 27734 61678 23543 0.0 2572.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -796 211 -38 -39 -39 4.8 2.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 -1530 533 -2098 -4214 -6461 ( ) 2647 10366 26 4872 -4037 ( ) 0.14 1.63 7.44 10.72 9.13 1155 -459 -177 128 22 ( ) 0.36 2.66 5.73 14.97 9.48 -467 447 2739 6253 -647 ( ) 2.61 5.49 12.61 22.83 31.51 927 119 1555 0 0 -927 6909 -1543 0 0 P/E 858.5 73.0 16.0 11.1 13.0 1960 3350 -2548 -1509 -3413 P/B 45.4 21.6 9.4 5.2 3.8 -1776 7552 -8208 -4697 1645 EV/EBITDA 208.8 55.7 14.0 9.8 10.723 / 24 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50024 / 24 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
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