资源描述
1 / 17 2021 05 08 2021 1 -2021Q1 -2021.5.2 3 - -2021.4.14 2020 1 - -2021.4.11 2021 S0790520050001 S0790120100011 P/EV 2021 4 30 300 -1.7% -16.3% 300 14.6% 2021 2021M2 M3 5 2021 4 +19.8% 2021 20% 2021Q1 -6.7% -7.0% -8.8% 2021M10 2021Q1 50% 57.6% 50.0% 10 3.2% 2021 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 3002 / 17 1 2021 4 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 5 2 2021 . 5 2.1 2021Q1 . 5 2.2 . 11 2.3 . 12 3 . 13 4 . 15 1 2021 4 300. 4 2 2021 4 . 4 3 . 4 4 2021Q1 . 5 5 2021Q1 . 5 6 2021Q1 . 6 7 2021M1 . 6 8 2021Q1 . 6 9 2021Q1 NBV . 6 10 . 7 11 . 7 12 800 1.0% . 7 13 2017 . 8 14 . 8 15 . 9 16 2018 . 9 17 . 10 18 2021Q1 . 11 19 . 11 20 2021Q1 . 11 21 2021Q1 . 12 22 . 12 23 . 12 24 10 3.2% 2020 . 13 25 . 13 26 AMS . 13 27 2021Q1 . 14 28 2021Q1 . 14 29 P/EV . 143 / 17 1 . 8 2 . 9 3 . 9 4 . 14 5 . 154 / 17 1 2021 4 1.1 2021 4 30 300 -1.7% -16.3% 300 14.6% 2020 300 +25.5% +1.2% 300 -24.3% 2020 1 1 2021 4 30 300 +23.4% -15.3% 300 -38.7% 14.4% 2021 2021M1 2021M2 M3 5 1 2021 4 300 2 2021 4 Wind 2021 4 30 Wind 2021 4 30 3 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2020-01-02 2020-04-02 2020-07-02 2020-10-02 2021-01-02 2021-04-02 2020 300 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2020-01-02 2020-04-02 2020-07-02 2020-10-02 2021-01-02 2021-04-02 - 300 - 300 0 50 100 150 200 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q15 / 17 1.2 2021 4 2021 4 -13.9% -16.6% -14.3% -16.1% -7.8% 2021 4 +19.8% 4 2021Q1 Wind 2 2021 2.1 2021Q1 2021Q1 2021Q1 2021M1 2021M2 M3 2021Q1 -13.2% +15.4% 5 2021Q1 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2020-01-02 2020-04-02 2020-07-02 2020-10-02 2021-01-02 2021-04-02 2020 -50% 0% 50% 100% 202001 202004 202007 202010 202101 6 / 17 6 2021Q1 7 2021M1 8 2021Q1 9 2021Q1 NBV 2018 83.2% 71.8% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2020 1 2020 4 2020 7 2020 10 2021 1 % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 7 / 17 2015-2017 2015 471 2017 807 10 11 2018 2018 12 800 1.0% Wind 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 8 / 17 13 2017 + 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 -20% 0% 20% 40% 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 9 / 17 + 2018 15 16 2018 2 + 2018 3 2018 5 4 2019 8 30 2020 4 1 2020 8 1 2020 11 23 2020 12 14 2020 12 29 2021 1 610 / 17 2021 1 11 2021 1 20 2021 2021 1 22 2021 3 22 2021 4 1 2020 2021 4 7 2021 4 8 2021 4 13 2021 4 13 2021 4 22 2021 5 5 31 2.89 1.45 1 19.8% 17 Wind 2021 5 6 2018-2020 3 2015 311 / 17 2.2 2021 2020 9 19 20% 89% 30% 63% 2021 10 2021 18 2021Q1 19 20 2021Q1 2021Q1 +41.0% +18.3% -8.8% 2021Q1 50% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2020 1 2020 4 2020 7 2020 10 2021 1 12 / 17 21 2021Q1 22 2.3 10 3.2% 2021Q1 4.28 4.5% 3.78 1.1% 1.68 2.0% 9574 0.9% 10 3.2% 2021 23 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q113 / 17 24 10 3.2% 2020 Wind 3 2015-2017 2018 2018 3 25 26 AMS 2021 2021Q1 +12.0% +6.2% -8.8% 100% 2021Q1 50% 57.6% 50.0% 2021M10 2020 9 2021M10 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2011-01-07 2012-01-07 2013-01-07 2014-01-07 2015-01-07 2016-01-07 2017-01-07 2018-01-07 2019-01-07 2020-01-07 2021-01-07 10 % 10 75014 / 17 27 2021Q1 28 2021Q1 P/EV 29 P/EV Wind 4 PEV EVPS 5 P/EV 2021E 0.86 37.93 1.03 20% 0.76 0.96 72.65 1.23 2% 0.86 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021Q1 % -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 2020Q1 2021Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 % - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 2013-06-14 2014-06-14 2015-06-14 2016-06-14 2017-06-14 2018-06-14 2019-06-14 2020-06-14 8 PEV15 / 17 PEV EVPS 5 P/EV 2021E 0.68 47.74 0.97 7% 0.62 0.62 77.13 0.91 2% 0.53 Wind Wind 2021 5 7 5 EVPS PEV BVPS PB 2021/5/7 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020A 2021E 2020A 2021E 601318.SH 70.10 72.65 82.34 93.80 0.96 0.85 0.75 41.72 46.05 1.68 1.52 1299.HK 84.50 35.28 38.38 42.22 2.40 2.20 2.00 34.09 36.08 2.48 2.34 Wind 2021 5 7 Wind 416 / 17 7 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50017 / 17 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
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