资源描述
2021 S0790520010001 2021 05 101. 2021 2021-2022 2021 2021/2022 523.0/697.3 +67.4%/+33.3% 2. 2021Q1 51.5 +279.6% Tesla 2021 245.8 +79.9% 3. 2021Q1 36.9 +103.9% 15.9% +11.4pct PHEV 2021 201.3 +48% 2021Q1 12.1 +43.7% 2021 53.3 +62.4% 4.1 PHEV 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 41.1 2021 2021 523 +67.4% 2021-2025 523.0/697.3/915.5/1196.3/1531.9 67.4%/33.3%/31.3%/30.7%/28.1% 1 2021-2025 523.0/697.3/915.5/1196.3/1531.9 EV sales 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 312.5 523.0 697.3 915.5 1196.3 1531.9 YoY 42.0% 67.4% 33.3% 31.3% 30.7% 28.1% EV 212.5 345.2 467.2 622.5 837.4 1087.6 YoY 62.4% 35.3% 33.3% 34.5% 29.9% PHEV 100.0 177.8 230.1 293.0 358.9 444.3 YoY 77.8% 29.4% 27.3% 22.5% 23.8% 2021Q1 2021Q2E 2021Q3E 2021Q4E 113.0 125.9 137.0 147.1 51.5 58.8 64.2 71.3 44.7 48.6 52.9 55.1 12.1 13.1 13.9 14.2 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.6 EV sales 2 2021 5231.1 2021Q1 +279.6% 2021Q1 51.5 +279.6% BEV 49.0 +298.4% PHEV 2.5 +96.8% 1-3 17.9/11.0/22.6 +238.5%/+584.7%/+238.9% 2021Q1 46.7 A00 15.9 34.1% B 14.7 31.4% A00 MINI EV 9.7 R1 1.9 B Model 3/Y 6.9 + + + 5.1 2.7 1 2021Q1 51.5 +279.6% 2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% C B A A0 A00 -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 BEV PHEV1.1 2021Q1 2021Q1 84965/69227/47078 19.8%/16.1%/11.0% MINI EV 3 2021Q1 4 2021Q1 MINI EV Model 3 R1 84965 19.8% 69227 16.1% 47078 11.0% 27332 6.4% 23343 5.4% 19867 4.6% 13582 3.2% 13346 3.1% 12650 2.9% 12318 2.9% MINI EV 73951 17.2% Model 3 52495 12.2% R1 17535 4.1% Model Y 16732 3.9% EV 15364 3.6% eQ1 12456 2.9% ONE 12318 2.9% Aion S 10409 2.4% E-Star 10208 2.4% ES6 7938 1.91.1 Model 3/Y CATL-Tesla 2021Q1 Model 3/Y 6.9 2021 1 1 Model Y 33.99 36.99 14.81 16.51 Model Y 25-50 SUV Model 3 CATL-Tesla 2021Q1 69280 Model 3 54499 Model Y 14781 3 Model 3 25327 Model Y 10151 2021 36 Model 3/Y 20/16 3 2021Q1 Model 3/Y 6.9 4 2019 20-25 8.9% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Model 3 Model Y ES6 63% ES8 18% AION LX 7% 12% 5 2020Q1-Q3 25-50 SUV 2.5% 22.2% 32.4% 15.8% 8.9% 5.1% 3.3% 2.5% 7.2% 5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 401.1 Model Y 30 Model Y 30 Model Y / Model Y 34.79/37.79 Model Y 30 1 Model Y 5-6 Model 3 10% 2 Model 3 CATL LFP Model Y Model 3 30 Model Y 5 Model Y 7 Model 3 3.8-5.5 / 6 Model Y 5-6 / 3.8 5.4 5.4 5.5 4.1 4.1 3.9 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.7 4.7 4.5 5 5.9 5.5 5.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 6 6.5 6.1 6 4.9 4.8 5.1 长续航版 Performance 34.79 37.79 (kW) 317 339 (km/h) 217 241 (s) 5.1 3.7 / / / / NEDC (km) 594 480 (kWh) 76.8 76.81.1 2021Q1 5.1 +346.1% 2021Q1 20060 +379.3% 13340 +840.1% 12579 +297.4% 5488 +98.3% ET7 P5 ET7 44.80-52.60 2022Q1 P5 A P7 2021Q4 2021 24.2 +92.3% 9 +101.6% 6.5 +149.1% 6 +82.4% 2.7 +21.4%. 8 2021Q1 5.1 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 ES8 2017/12 SUV 44.80-62.40 ES6 2019/12 SUV 35.80-51.80 EC6 2020/07 SUV 36.80-52.60 ET7 2022Q1 44.80-52.60 G3 2018/12 A SUV 14.68-19.98 P7 2020/04 B 22.99-34.99 P5 2021 A 16-21 ONE 2019/04 SUV 32.8 EX5 2018/08 A SUV 13.98-19.88 EX5-Z 2020/05 A SUV 14.98-19.88 EX6 2020/07 B SUV 23.99-27.99 W6 2021/04 B SUV 16.98-25.98 6 Model Y 7 2021 24.2 +92.3% 2020Q1 2021Q1 2020 2021E 2021E YoY 4185 20060 44638 90000 101.6% 1419 13340 26094 65000 149.1% 3165 12579 32893 60000 82.4% 2767 5488 22236 27000 21.4% 11536 51467 125861 242000 92.31.1 DM-i 2021 10 2020/07 2021Q1 53380 +148% 27454 EV21354 +DM6100 2021 10 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 DM EV 2021/01 2021/02 2021/03 20,178 10,355 24,218 19,871 10,123 23,386 14,463 7,835 16,301 5,408 2,288 7,085 307 232 832 175 93 554 132 139 278 22,223 10,572 16,599 5,950 2,936 4,707 SUV 15,097 6,169 10,341 MPV 1,176 1,467 1,551 42,401 20,927 40,817 8 2021Q1 53380 9 2021Q1 274543.22 4.05 4.15 5.13 6.11 3.79 6.14 5.45 4.18 5.05 5.54 6.38 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Plus DM-i Plus DM-i CR- V DM-i L DM-i DM-i DM-i 1.1 DM-i DM-i PHEV Plus DM-i 10 + Plus DM-i 10.78-14.78 10- 15 PHEV DM-i 3 2021 DM-i 15 Plus DM-i 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Plus DM-i Plus DM-i CR-V DM-i L DM-i DM-i DM-i 11 DM-i 图12： DM-i L/100km 数据 来源 ：比亚 迪公司 官网、 汽车之 家、开 源证券 研究所 数据 来源 ：比亚 迪公司 官网、 汽车之 家、开 源证券 研究所 400.2 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40 MPV SUV 10 2019 10-15 400.2 数据 来源 ：乘联 会、开 源证券 研究所1.1 ID.4 ID.6 68 2020-2024 330 2029 75 60 2600 MEB ID.3 2020 9 MEB SUV ID.4 2020 11 19.99- 27.29 ID.6 X 2021 4 SUV 588km 2021Q3 2021 ID.4 ID.6 5/2 9 ID.4 ID.6 13 kWh kW NEDC km * * (mm) ID.4 X SUV EV B 56.3/83.4 120/150/230 407/520/555 4612*1852*1640 19.99-27.29 2021.01 ID.4 CROZZ 55/84.8 125/150/225 400/500/550 4592*1852*1629 2021.03 ID.6 X SUV EV C 83.4 225 588 4876*1848*1680 30 2021Q3 ID.6 CROZZ 84.8 565 4891*1848*16791.1 MINI EV A00 + MINI EV + MINI EV A00 EV 2.88-3.88 2020 6 28 2021 3 3.97 7 2021 MINI EV 37 MINI EV - MINIEV CABRIO 2021 4 2022 10 MINI EV - MINIEV CABRIO 14 2021 3 MINI EV 39745 7348 15000 20150 23800 33094 32097 36762 20167 39745 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 MINI EV kWh kW km * * mm MINI EV A00 EV A00 / 9.3 20 120/170 2920*1493*1621 3.76-4.36 2021.04 15 MINIEV CABRIO1.1 km * * mm mm A6 e-tron 100kWh 700 WLTP 4960*1960*1440 2960 - 2022 Q4 e-tron Lux SUV 82kWh 450 WLTP 4590*1865*1613 2760 54.68-71.88 2021 EQS Lux Sedan 108.7kWh 700 WLTP 5216*1926*1512 3210 - 2021.11 Mustang Mach- E SUV - 600 CLTC 4724*1880*1660 2984 26.5-37.99 2021.4.13 iX Lux SUV xDrive50: 100kWh xDrive40: 70kWh 600 WLTP - 3000 47-51 2021 11 2021 41.1 2021 4 L7 S 12 kWh kW km * * mm Aion Y SUV EV A NCM 523 55.5/61.3/76.8 100/135 410/500/600 4410*1870*16 45 2 ADiGO 2.0 10.46-14.86 2021.4 E-HS9 SUV EV C+ 85/99/120 320/405 460/510 5209*2010*17 31 9150 C- V2X L3 50.98-72.98 2020.12 FREE SUV EV C 88 255/510 475/505 4905*1950*16 60 5G L2 31.36-36.36 2021.4 PHEV 33 510 140 L7 EV C 93/118 400 615/1000 5098*1960*14 82 Xavier (3060 TOPS) Door to Door Pilot 40.88 2022Q2 S EV C 67.3/93.6 160/320/473 525/603/708 4930*1940*15 99 400TOPs S HI 25.19-42.99 2021.41.1 HI 2021 HI Huawei inside SF5 S HI SF5 3000 HI AOS HOS VOS HI 13 161.1 2021-2022 245.8/316.2 2021-2022 245.8/316.2 +79.9%/+28.6% 15 2021-2022 245.8/316.2 +79.9%/+28.6% 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 0.0 13.5 36 45 2.1 4.4 9 11.3 1.7 2.7 6.5 8.8 0.0 3.3 6 7.2 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.5 21.9 17.9 40.7 54.0 4.0 5.6 12.5 17.5 8.5 3.4 5 10.0 7.5 7.3 10 12.0 4.2 6.0 7 9.1 2.8 2.5 2.8 3.6 15.1 2.6 2 3.0 6.0 17.3 41 45.1 3.9 3.1 5 10 0.4 3.4 5 10 0.3 1.8 2 2.6 3.2 3.0 3.3 5.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.0 20.3 28.0 30 33 106.2 124.6 229.8 297.0 14.9 12.0 16.0 19.2 121.1 136.6 245.8 316.2 YoY 12.8% 79.9% 28.6% 14 2021 245.8 +79.9% 2021Q1 2021Q2E 2021Q3E 2021Q4E 51.5 58.8 64.2 71.3 YoY 279.6% 127.9% 86.1% 17.31.2 2020 2025 2035 2050 2020.04 2020.06 2020 2020.09 2020.10 2.0 2025 10 2035 100 2020.11 2021-2035 1 2 2021.4 2021.5 5 17 161.2 2019.04 2022 20 2500 2025 50 10000 2030 100 50000 2019.05 2019 2022 10 300 2024 20 7500 2019.06 2019-2035 2021 2000 2019.07 2019.08 2022 1000 1 30 100 2020.01 2020-2022 10 1000 150 2020.02 2020-2035 2025 30000 / 30 2030 50000 / 60. 2020.03 2022 10 800 2025 15 1500 2020.06 (2020 2030 ) 2020.07 2019-2030 2022 30 3000 200 2025 50 600 1-2 50 2020.09 2023 100 10000 1000 2020.09 500 1000 2020.09 2020-2025 2025 8000 / 100 2021.04 2021 2023 2021.04 2021.04 2021-2025 2023 37 3000 500 2025 74 10000 1000 171.2 18 ME A POCO Kyushu Ballard Ballard Hydrogenics Wind1.2 688339.SH A 2022 000723.SZ - - - - 601012.SH1 PHEV 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 42 2021Q1 36.9 +103.9% 1-3 36.9 +103.9% 2021Q1 36.9 +103.9% 15.9% +11.4pct EV 16.9 +62.5% PHEV 20.0 +160.1% 2021Q1 44.7 2021Q1 PHEV 54.1% PHEV HEV 18 2021Q1 2021/01 2021/02 2021/03 2021Q1 BEV 16,315 18278 30101 64694 PHEV 20,588 21879 35580 78047 21.7% 20.7% 22.5% 21.7% BEV 6,000 8426 15544 29,970 PHEV 8,000 9050 13911 30,961 11.1% 13.2% 16.1% 13.8% BEV 6260 3516 22003 31,779 PHEV 6124 3131 17330 26,585 13.7% 13.0% 13.8% 13.7% BEV 2494 3457 7315 13,266 PHEV 3760 4913 7430 16,103 4.6% 5.8% 8.6% 6.5% BEV 589 1125 2025 3,739 PHEV 1,313 2158 3367 6,838 4.5% 5.6% 6.3% 5.7% BEV 5461 5074 8624 19,159 PHEV 2848 3378 4379 10,605 80.7% 79.1% 84.9% 82.0% BEV 1,106 1376 2605 5,087 PHEV 5,787 6548 14930 27,265 33.5% 34.7% 36.9% 35.6% BEV 413 489 707 1,609 PHEV 1,000 991 1415 3,406 14.1% 14.3% 13.6% 13.9% BEV 38,638 41,741 88,924 169303 PHEV 49,420 52,048 98,342 199810 14.6% 15.0% 17.1% 15.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% BEV PHEV 19 PHEV2 2 Model 3 2 Model 3 5506 1 Model 3 1 Model 3 5 4.38 3000 6000 / Model 3 5.2 -0.58 /6 -0.6 Model 3 4.3 4 5000 6000 / Model 3 5 -0.25 /5.5 -0.4 2 Model 3 5506 ID.3 19 2021 2 Model 3 EV sales 1. 1 2 1 Volvo XC40 PHEV 3543 Tesla Model 3 5506 2 Renault Zoe 3520 VW ID.3 3808 3 Kia Niro EV 3123 Renault Zoe 3620 4 BMW 330e 3058 Volvo XC40 PHEV 3602 5 VW ID.3 2978 Peugeot 208 EV 3062 6 Peugeot 208 EV 2807 Volvo XC60 PHEV 2740 7 Peugeot 3008 PHEV 2680 Kia Niro EV 2696 8 Audi e-Tron 2621 Hyundai Kona EV 2642 9 Mercedes GLC300e/de 2551 BMW X1 PHEV 2610 10 Hyundai Kona EV 2507 Peugeot 3008 PHEV 25822 2021 201.3 +48% 2021 201.3 +48% 2025 663.3 2020-2025 CAGR 37.2% 20 2020-2025 CAGR 37.2% 40.7 56.42 136 201.3 277.8 375.0 498.7 663.3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 7001 PHEV 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 43 2021Q1 12.1 +43.7% 2021Q1 2021Q1 12.1 +43.7% EV 9.4 +35.9% PHEV 2.7 +79.7% 2021Q1 6.6 54.6% 21 2021Q1 12.1 +43.7% Marklines carsalesbase 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,0003 3 31 1 2 3 1. 1740 2. 3. 2030 50 4. 65 100% 1. 2. 3. 4. EECES 1.CAF 2022 2. 7500 20 3. EV/PHEV 18 6 HOV ZEV 203 2021 53.3 +62.4% 2021 53.3 +62.4% 2025 228.8 2020-2025 CAGR 47.5% 22 2020-2025 CAGR 47.5% 36.1 31.6 32.8 53.3 79.9 113.5 161.1 228.8 0 50 100 150 200 2503 Wind 21 EPS PE 2021/5/10 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 300750.SZ 368.21 4.61 7.67 11.59 79.87 48.01 31.77 002812.SZ 130.88 2.3 3.03 3.8 56.90 43.19 34.44 300035.SZ 10.75 0.51 0.75 1.08 21.08 14.33 9.95 300073.SZ 45.02 1.36 1.91 2.95 33.10 23.57 15.26 002080.SZ 21.06 1.5 1.63 1.74 14.04 12.92 12.10 300568.SZ 29.28 0.71 0.9 1.1 41.24 32.53 26.62 002594.SZ 147.00 1.97 2.49 3.01 74.62 59.04 48.841 PHEV 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 44612 A 300 500 buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C51788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5
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