城投“抱团”的前景.pdf

2021 05 23 “ 2020 11 2020 11 10 80bp 2020 140bp AA -AAA 35bp 60bp 2021 5 16 198 202 415 783 2500 4 1 AA+ AA 6.05bp 2.46bp AA 2.4bp AA 16.1bp - AA 43.8bp 4bp S0680520050001 1 2021-05-21 2 2021-05-17 3 20210516- 2021-05-16 4 2021-05-16 5 2021-05-142021 05 23 P.2 1. . 3 1.1 “ ” “ ” . 3 1.2 “ ” . 4 1.3 “ ” . 4 2 .“ ” “ ” . 4 “ ” . 4 2.1 “ ” “ ” . 5 2.2 “ ” “ ” . 5 3. “ ” . 6 3.1 “ ” . 6 3.1.1 . 7 3.1.2 “ ” “ ” . 7 3.2 - . 8 3.2.1 . 10 3.2.2 - . 11 3.3 14 . 12 4. “ ” . 13 4.1 . 13 4.2 “ ” . 15 . 18 1 “ ” . 3 2 2012 . 5 3 “ ” . 5 4 bp . 6 5 bp . 6 6 2019 . 7 7 2019 2015 . 8 8 - - . 9 9 2020 . 10 10 2010-2020 . 10 11 2010-2020 . 10 12 . 11 13 x - y . 12 14 2020 . 13 15 . 14 16 “ ” . 152021 05 23 P.3 1. 1.1 50% 5 AA-AAA 2021 4 75bp 50% 2021Q1 AA+ AA 92bp 52bp 16.66bp 50.6bp 27.61bp 6.59bp 17.61bp 15.99bp 2021 2500 2021 5 16 198 202 415 783 2500 1 Wind -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 80002021 05 23 P.4 1.2 1.3 1 2 2. 2.1 2015 1 2015 -2016 8 14Q4-15Q4 6 2015 2015 180bp 2016 8 60bp 110bp 30bp 2 2016 8 -2018 6 2016 2017 - 2017 7 2016 8 60bp 2018 6 200bp2021 05 23 P.5 30bp 100bp 3 2018 6 -2020 10 2018 6 200bp 2020 10 70bp 100bp 35bp 2 2012 3 Wind 5 Wind 5 2.2 2020 11 2020 11 10 80bp 2020 140bp 35bp 60bp 2.3 2014 2018 6 2020 10 2021Q1 30bp 0 50 100 150 200 250 2012-08 2012-12 2013-04 2013-08 2013-12 2014-04 2014-08 2014-12 2015-04 2015-08 2015-12 2016-04 2016-08 2016-12 2017-04 2017-08 2017-12 2018-04 2018-08 2018-12 2019-04 2019-08 2019-12 2020-04 2020-08 2020-12 ( ): AA-AAA 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2020-11-11 2020-11-18 2020-11-25 2020-12-02 2020-12-09 2020-12-16 2020-12-23 2020-12-30 2021-01-06 2021-01-13 2021-01-20 2021-01-27 2021-02-03 2021-02-10 2021-02-17 2021-02-24 2021-03-03 2021-03-10 2021-03-17 2021-03-24 2021-03-31 2021-04-07 2021-04-14 2021-04-21 ( ): AA-AAA2021 05 23 P.6 4 bp Wind 1 2018 6 2020 10 150bp 100bp 2 AA AA+ 2021Q1 3. 3.1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2014-05 2014-08 2014-11 2015-02 2015-05 2015-08 2015-11 2016-02 2016-05 2016-08 2016-11 2017-02 2017-05 2017-08 2017-11 2018-02 2018-05 2018-08 2018-11 2019-02 2019-05 2019-08 2019-11 2020-02 2020-05 2020-08 2020-11 2021-02 5 bp AAA AA+ AA AAA AA+ AA -92.38 -166.18 -157.21 -31.13 -27.74 -21.20 -124.32 -147.12 -173.68 -29.67 -42.22 -34.95 -167.81 129.89 -11.83 -25.62 91.79 52.17 -66.77 -39.12 -43.33 56.71 27.61 6.59 -80.85 -94.10 -28.69 580.28 16.66 50.60 - -150.39 -199.51 -17.47 -14.22 2.72 - -107.32 -103.83 - 17.61 15.99 Wind2021 05 23 P.7 6 3.1.1 2019 33.7% 5 15% 13.7% 11.6% 10% 6.6% 5.6% 5.2% 6 2019 1 2 2019 2018 3.1.2 2015 2019 2015 2015-2019 4 2019 2015 28.2% 4 5.52021 05 23 P.8 4 2015 6.7% 2019 5.2% 2015 7% 7.8% 2015-2019 7.3% 8.7% 2019 10% 7 2019 2015 1 3.2 - - - 1 2 3 42021 05 23 P.9 8 - - 2020 26.8 18.8 17.8 15.6 5423 6314 7136 2010 2011- 2015 23.1% 21.5% 2016-2020 10.8% 11% 3.9% 3.9% 2015 2015 2016-2020 4.4 6 11.9% 11.72021 05 23 P.10 9 2020 10 2010-2020 Wind Wind : = / 3.2.1 11 2010-2020 Wind 1 2014-2020 4216 374 951 -58 2020 0.43% 2014 3.09 2 2014-2020 311 2014 3.07% 2020 1.49% 605 12 3 2014-2020 1679 1749 781 2014 1.77% 0.36% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2020 2011-2015 2016-2020 (2011-2015 ) (2016-2020 ) 0.78 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.92 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2014 2016 2018 20202021 05 23 P.11 2014 5.56 5.09 2.58 10.65% 13.48% 11.14% 1.6 1.8 1.3 3852 4042 3352 12 2014 2020 3.52% 0.43% -3.09% 374 951 3.07% 1.49% -1.58% 605 12 1.77% 0.36% -1.40% 1749 781 5.09% 10.65% 5.56% 1.6 3852 8.39% 13.48% 5.09% 1.8 4042 8.56% 11.14% 2.58% 1.3 3352 Wind 3.2.2 - - / - 2020 2021Q1 2019 2019 1.3%-43% -16.3% 13.92021 05 23 P.12 13 x - y Wind 1 + 35.5% 10.1% 27.1% 11.1% 27.2% 9.2% 2019 2 + 20.3% 13.9% 19.5% 9% 19.1% 10.7% - 3 + 11.8% 0.5% 1.4% -2.1% 4 + 25.3% -16.3% 32% 1% - 3.3 14 2017-2020 -1% 2% 22021 05 23 P.13 14 2020 Wind 4. 4.1 4 4 -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 20202021 05 23 P.14 15 ( ) 2020/11/14 15 2020/12/2 2020/12/23 2019 12 25 4% 2020 9 15 2020 11 14 130 86 2020 12 23 5024 2021/3/26 2021/4/21 2021/4/21 2021/4/23 300 50 2021/4/30 2021/5/7 2021/5/10 :2021 05 23 P.15 4.2 2021 AA+ AA 6.05bp 2.46bp AA 2.4bp AA 16.1bp - AA 43.8bp 4bp 16 AAA AA+ AA 2020 2021/4/30 2020 2021/4/30 2020 2021/4/30 97.46 76.11 -21.35 162.42 130.52 -31.90 294.38 291.98 -2.40 112.75 138.32 25.57 169.65 163.59 -6.05 306.62 304.15 -2.46 59.04 53.35 -5.69 162.57 125.41 -37.16 260.81 244.72 -16.09 96.32 66.17 -30.15 191.74 164.03 -27.71 394.20 438.01 43.82 74.91 61.71 -13.20 191.50 184.52 -6.99 358.11 354.11 -4.00 Wind 76% 1 AA+ AA 100-300bp 2 0.5-32021 05 23 P.16 bp 16 5.60 AA 1.93 5.90 297.36 16 02 8.40 AA 2.32 5.88 288.64 15 2.00 AA 0.87 5.36 288.15 16 01 8.94 AA 2.21 5.84 286.22 16 ( ) 3.00 AA 2.17 5.83 285.63 16 9.00 AA 2.16 5.83 285.32 16 ( ) 4.80 AA 1.99 5.79 284.59 15 1.20 AA 0.83 5.27 278.95 15 ( ) 2.40 AA 0.92 5.25 276.18 15 4.00 AA 1.56 5.51 274.67 15 1.60 AA 0.74 5.16 271.00 16 4.40 AA 1.70 5.55 270.85 14 2.60 AA 0.56 4.89 265.74 14 沚 3.20 AA 0.59 4.91 263.72 16 10.80 AA 2.28 5.61 262.78 15 2.00 AA 0.76 5.02 256.11 16 9.60 AA 1.26 5.09 248.68 16 5.20 AA 1.69 5.30 246.38 16 3.08 AA 1.70 5.25 240.80 16 ( ) 4.60 AA 1.85 5.29 239.02 14 02 2.00 AA+ 0.94 4.77 227.92 16 6.78 AA+ 2.39 5.15 215.16 14 02 1.20 AA 0.85 4.60 211.99 16 9.00 AA 2.33 5.08 209.03 16 5.60 AA 1.71 4.85 200.83 16 6.00 AA 1.71 4.80 195.74 16 5.40 AA 2.12 4.92 195.67 16 10.80 AA 2.45 4.92 191.23 16 4.80 AA 1.70 4.75 190.93 16 8.00 AA+ 1.95 4.83 190.19 16 ( ) 4.40 AA 1.89 4.81 189.24 16 ( ) 7.20 AA 2.18 4.84 186.30 16 02 4.40 AA 1.91 4.72 179.52 16 9.20 AA 1.89 4.71 179.21 15 3.60 AA 1.23 4.34 175.58 16 02 6.00 AA 2.49 4.73 171.90 16 01 3.60 AA 1.70 4.55 170.98 16 01 3.00 AA 2.07 4.61 165.27 17 01 5.40 AA 2.99 4.75 165.26 17 01 3.00 AA 2.95 4.58 149.41 16 3.52 AA 1.81 4.38 149.06 15 ( ) 4.80 AA+ 1.65 4.29 147.57 16 3.52 AA 1.95 4.38 145.112021 05 23 P.17 15 6.00 AA 1.46 4.15 143.87 15 2.00 AA 0.94 3.87 137.97 16 7.20 AA 2.20 4.34 136.59 16 5.40 AA 2.12 4.32 135.74 16 02 6.60 AA 2.29 4.32 133.39 15 2.40 AA+ 0.71 3.73 130.36 16 4.76 AA 1.85 4.19 129.12 16 4.32 AA 1.84 4.14 124.08 16 01 2.40 AA 1.71 4.05 120.92 16 ( ) 7.20 AA+ 2.33 4.18 119.21 17 7.20 AA 2.85 4.24 117.36 15 1.80 AA 0.99 3.66 115.76 15 2.60 AA+ 0.70 3.57 115.34 15 2.20 AA+ 0.98 3.65 114.68 15 2.00 AA 0.95 3.63 113.21 11 0.25 AA+ 0.51 3.29 111.50 15 5.20 AA+ 1.23 3.70 110.71 15 2.40 AA 0.87 3.57 108.44 15 6.00 AA 1.30 3.68 105.39 15 01 3.20 AA 1.50 3.76 102.56 16 8.40 AA+ 2.19 3.99 101.54 16 4.62 AA 2.38 4.00 100.08 Wind 1 2021 5 8 2 -2021 05 23 P.182021 05 23 P.19 “ ” , “ ” “ ” 6 A 300 500 15% 5%15% -5%+5% 5% 10% -10%+10% 10% 26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38934111 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033