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FOLOWUSCONTACT US A CEIC Insights Report Japan Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019 2 Executive Sumary Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 3 Economic Outlok TheJapaneseeconomygrewby0.9%y/yinQ12019,upfrom0.3%y/yinthepreviousquarter.Ona seasonalyadjustedbasisthegrowthcameto0.6%q/qversus0.5%inQ42018.Theacceleration, however,camemostlyonthebackofadropinimports,whichoutweighedthedeclineinexports. Privateconsumptionremainedstable,althoughtherearesomesignsofweakeningandbusines fixedinvestmentsloweddownbutwasstilrobust. Inflationstilfalsshortofthe2%target.HeadlineCPIinflationwas0.4%inJanuary-April2019,and thetwocoremeasures,CPIexcludingfreshfoodandCPIexcludingfreshfoodandenergy,wereat 0.8%and0.5%,respectively. InAprilBankofJapananouncedthatitwilkeeptheextremelylowlevelsoftheshort-andlong- termsratesatleastuntilthespringofnextyear.Currentlytheshort-termpolicyrateissetat-0.1% andthetargetlevelof10-yearJapanesegovernmentbond(JGB)yieldsisaround0%. InMarcharecordJPY101.5tnbudgetwasapproved.Itincludesatemporalandspecialmeasures packageamountingtoJPY2tn.Thespecialmeasuresareaimedatsupportingtheeconomyand consumersaftertheconsumptiontaxincreaseto10%scheduledforOctoberthisyear. ThesmothedCEICleadingindicatorremainedonasteadydownwardtrendinMay,suggestinglower growthrateatleastforaquarterahead.TheindicatorpeakedinNovember2017andhasbeen decliningsince,reflectingthe2018moderationoftheJapaneseeconomy.ManufacturingPMIpoints toacontinuationoftheweaknesinthesector,asinMayitfelagainbelowthethresholdof50,to 49.8.Theindexhasbeenfluctuatingaroundthe50valuethresholdsincethebeginingoftheyear. ThePMIforservicesremainedabovethethreshold,at51.7.Businesconfidencealsodeteriorated, withthecurrentsituationdifusionindexintheTankansurveydecreasingto12%andthequarter- aheadoutlokto7%(theindexmeasuresthedifferenceinthenumberofoptimistsandpesimistsfor thebusinesconditionsamongenterprises).Consumerconfidenceindexreadingsarenotoptimistic either-inMaytheindexwasfurtherdownto39.4,itslowestvaluesincethebeginingof2016. ThemajorfactorsthatareexpectedtoshapeJapansgrowththroughouttherestoftheyearareseen tobetheweakerglobalgrowth,coupledwithaslowdownintheIT-relatedgoodssector,andthe consumptiontaxhikescheduledforOctober.Giventhelowerexternaldemand,exportsareexpected toremainweak,exertinganegativeimpactonindustrialproduction.Consumptionislikelyto acceleratepriortotheplanedtaxhikeandfalbackinthelastquarteroftheyearandthroughout 2020.Thenegativeeffectofthistaxincreaseontheeconomyisexpectedtobefarmilderthanthatof previousincreases,thankstothefiscalstimuluspackageinthenewbudget.TheFocusEconomics consensusforecastisfor0.8%y/ygrowthforthisyear,sameasin2018,whiletheOxfordEconomics forecastisfor0.5%y/y. Key Highlights EXECUTIVE SUMARY Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 4 Theriskstotheoutlokareonthedownside.Theyarerelatedtoglobalgrowth,primarilytoeconomic developmentsinChina,andtotheoutcomeofthetradeprotectionismmovesoftheUS,amongwhich JapansowntradenegotiationswiththeUS. Leading Economic Index Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Bank of Japan Forecast: Real GDP GrowthPurchasing Manager Index A CEIC Insights Report 5 Tankan Difusion Index Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): Nationwide: Al Household A CEIC Insights Report Sumary 6 AfterJapanseconomysloweddownconsiderablyinthesecondhalfoflastyearandtheexternal environmentdeteriorated,theexpectationsforthebeginingofthisyearwereforaclosetozero changeatbest.Thefirstquarterresultsmanagedtobeatexpectations,however,theacceleration wasmostlydrivenbyadeclineinimports.Exportperformancewasalsoweak,withnominalexports decliningforsixmonthsinarow.Thelowerexternaldemandhadanegativeimpactonthe manufacturingsectoraswel. Realgrosdomesticproduct(GDP)growthacceleratedto0.9%y/yinQ12019,up0.6ppfromQ4 2018,accordingtothesecondpreliminaryestimateofJapansEconomicandSocialResearch Institute.Onaseasonalyadjustedbasisthegrowthcameto0.6%q/q(2.2%anualizedrate), comparedto0.5%inthepreviousquarter(1.8%anualizedrate). Theindustrialproductionindex(IPI)inmanufacturingdroppedby1.4%y/yinJanuary-April.The mostsignificantdeclineswereregisteredintheproductionofmachinery,downby8.2%y/y,and electronicpartsanddevices,downby8.1%y/y.Theproductionoftransportequipment,chemicals, andfoodandtobacoincreasedby1.5%y/y,2.5%y/y,and2.3%y/yrespectively. Theheadlineconsumerpriceindex(CPI)inflationdeceleratedinJanuary-Aprilto0.4%(0.9%inQ4 2018)remainingfarfromBankofJapans2%target.Coreinflation,CPIexcludingfreshfood, remainedat0.8%,whileCPIexcludingfreshfoodandenergypickedupto0.5%. InAprilthisyearBankofJapanclarifieditsforwardguidanceforpolicyrates,introducedinJulylast year.Thebankstatedthatitwilmaintaintheextremelylowlevelsoftheshort-andlong-term interestratesatleastuntilspring2020.Underthecurrentmonetarypolicyofquantitativeand qualitativemonetaryeasingwithyieldcurvecontrol,theshort-termpolicyrateissetat-0.1%and thetargetlevelof10-yearJapanesegovernmentbond(JGB)yieldsisaround0%. ThetradedeficitwidenedtoUSD13.6bn(JPY1,473.8bn)inJanuary-May,asthe2%y/ydeclinein importscouldnotmakeupforthepersistentfalinexports,downby6.2%forthefirstfivemonths oftheyear.LowerdemandforIT-relatedgoodsandtheslowdownoftheChineseeconomythathad spiledovertootherAsian EXECUTIVE SUMARY Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 7 JapanEconomy: Statistics at a Glance Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Unit 06.201905.201904.201903.201902.201901.201912.2018 Real GDP: YoY: saar % 0,93 0,27 IPI: sa: Mining (Mng) % -4,04 -3,82 -1,28 -4,59 -6,98 IPI: sa: Manufacturing (Mfg) % -1,63 -2,76 -1,15 0,69 -0,95 Manufacturing PMI: Headline: sa: Japan NA 49,8050,2049,2048,9050,3052,60 Services PMI: Headline: sa: Japan NA 51,7051,8052,0052,3051,6051,00 Inflation Target % 2,00 2,00 Consumer Price Index: YoY % 0,70 0,90 0,50 0,20 0,20 0,30 Consumer Price Index: Core % 66,6750,00-20,00-20,00 0,00 0,00 Producer Price Index (PPI) % 0,69 1,29 1,30 0,90 0,60 1,50 Services Producer Price Index (SPPI): Al items % 0,86 1,15 1,06 0,96 1,05 Motor Vehicle Sales (MVS): JAMA Unit 396 120378 687640 813479 427407 975387 525 Population Person th126 230126 200126 230126 220126 330126 320126 420 Employment Rate % 60,5060,3060,0059,7060,00 Unemployment Person th 1 7601 7401 5601 6601 590 Tankan:Al Enterprises (AE): DI: Actual: Bus. Condition(BC):All Ind. % 12,00 16,00 Trade Balance: sa USD bn -5,54 -1,52 -2,23 -0,10 -2,73 -1,88 Exports: sa % -9,81 -7,21 -4,57 -3,63 -6,95 -1,80 Imports: sa % -3,40 1,92 -0,93 -8,48 2,21 1,64 Curent Account Balance: % of Nominal GDP: Quarterly: sa: Japan % 3,53 3,13 BoP: sa: Curent Acount (CA): Net USD bn 14,3311,4417,1715,8113,26 Money Stock: Money Suply: M2 JPY bn 1 345 9071 331 8211 319 8351 316 1271 329 081 Int Reserves: Oficial: Asets: Foreign Curency Reserve (FR) USD mn 1 244 1861 229 8581 229 4061 218 7631 216 1111 208 958 Discount Rate: Month End % pa 0,30 0,30 0,30 0,30 0,30 0,30 Policy Rate: MthEnd: Complementary Deposit Facility Interest Rate % pa -0,10 -0,10 -0,10 -0,10 -0,10 -0,10 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 8 Real GDP: YoY: saar Industrial Production Index: YoY Growth CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 9 Foreign Trade CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Headline Inflation Rate Policy Rate Curent Acount Balance: % of Nominal GDP 10 Real Sector Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Real Sector 11 TheGDPgrowthofJapanacceleratedto0.9%y/yinQ12019,comparedto0.3%y/yintheprevious quarter,accordingtothesecondpreliminaryestimateoftheEconomicandSocialResearchInstitute. Thenumbersforbothquarterswererevisedslightlyupwardscomparedtothefirstpreliminary estimate,by0.1ppeach.Onaseasonalyadjustedbasistheeconomygrewby0.6%q/q(0.5%q/qin Q42018)andata2.2%anualizedrate.Thefirstquartergrowthcameassurprise,astheforecasts wereforaclosetozerochangeorevenafalonquarterlybasis. However,themainreasonfortheaccelerationwastheimprovementofthegoodandservices deficit,causedbyadropinimportsoutweighingtheoneinexports.Realimportsdeclinedby1.9% y/y,downfromthesolid4.1%y/ygrowthinthepreviousquarter.Realexports,ontheotherhand, continuedtoworsen.Afteraconsiderableslowdowninthesecondhalfof2018,theydecreasedby 2.7%y/y(1%y/yinQ42018).AsthebulkofJapansexportsaredirectedtoChinaandotherAsian markets,theslowdownoftheChineseeconomyandthedownturnintheIT-relatedgoodssectorhad beenaffectingnegativelytheexportvolumesofthecountry. Privatesectoractivitycontinuedtobethemaindriverofeconomicexpansion.Personalconsumption inchedupby0.5%y/y,whileonaquarterlyseasonalyadjustedbasisitwasdownby0.1%.Thefixed investmentoftheprivatesectorwasrobust,upby2.4%y/y(2.9%y/yinQ42018).Whilenon- residentialinvestmentdeceleratedto2.7%y/y(4%y/yinQ42018),residentialinvestmentreturned togrowthfollowingmorethanayearofdeclineandwasupby0.6%y/y.ForthefirsttimesinceQ1 2018thepublicsectoralsosupportedtheexpansion,asthedropinfixedinvestmentsloweddownto 2.9%y/y,supportedbydisasterrelatedworks.Governmentconsumptionremainedatahighlevel, deceleratingsomewhatto0.9%y/y(1.3%y/yinQ42018). Theconsumerconfidenceindexreadingsraiseconcernforthepersonalconsumptiondynamicsgoing ahead.Theindexremainedonadownwardtrendthatstartedinthemidoflastyear,andforthe January-May2019periodacumulatedadecreaseof6.6%,withMaypostinga1.3%m/mdecline. BusinesconfidencealsoworsenedinQ12019,astheBankofJapansTankandifusionindexfor enterprisesreachedatwo-yearlowof12%(16%inthepreviousquarter).Thedeclinecamefroma sharpdropofmanufacturingsectorenterprisesindexto7%,whilethevalueoftheindexforthenon- manufacturingenterprisesremainedunchangedat15%. REAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 12 CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Japan: Real GDP Growth Onthesupplyside,productionhasalsobeenaffectedbytheslowdowninexternaldemand.TheIPI wasdownby1.4%y/yinthefirstfourmonthsoftheyear.Thedeclinewasbroadbased,withthe stepestdropof8.2%registeredinproductionofmachinery,followedbyelectronicpartsand deviceswith8.1%y/y.Transportequipment,chemicals,andfoodandtobacomanufacturing remainedstable.Theservicessectorwassteady,thetertiaryactivityindexdeceleratingsomewhat to1.2%y/y.Theonlynegativechangeswereinelectricity,gas,heatsupplyandwater,downby1.3% y/y,andwholesaletrade,downby1.2%y/y.Retailtradeincreasedby0.5%y/y.Theconstruction sectorcontinueddeteriorating,theactivityindexdecreasingfurtherby2.3%y/yinJanuary-March. TheconditionsonthelabourmarketremainedtightinQ12019,assuggestedbytheemployment conditionsdifusionindexintheTankan,whichstodat-35%,unchangedcomparedtoQ42018. Employmentintheeconomygrewby0.9%y/y(2.1%y/yinQ42018)inJanuary-April,asfemale, young(upto24years)andelderlypeople(65yearsandover)employmentcontinuedtooutpacethe total.Theunemploymentratepickedupslightlyattheendoftheperiodto2.6%. Source: A CEIC Insights Report 13 Nominal GDP: By Expenditure CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Unit 03.201912.201809.201806.201803.201812.201709.2017 Gros Domestic Product: saar JPY bn554 340549 735547 000550 561548 682549 849548 461 GDP: sar: Domestic Demand (D) JPY bn551 419551 472546 745547 633544 502544 427541 335 GDP: sar: D: Private JPY bn415 253415 908411 384412 118408 909409 231406 190 GDP: saar: D: Private: Households Consumption (HC) JPY bn297 544298 250297 082296 426296 161295 770293 515 GDP: sar: D: Private: Personal Consumption JPY bn305 846306 479305 243304 523304 177303 697301 405 GDP: saar: D: Private: Excl Imputed Rent JPY bn247 445248 206247 042246 406246 167245 787243 547 GDP: sar: D: Private: Domestic Investment: Residential JPY bn 17 01216 89116 58916 44416 69617 02017 508 GDP: sar: D: Private: Domestic Investment: Non Residential JPY bn 90 41590 71088 14790 27587 42286 71185 955 GDP: sar: D: Private: Inventory Investment JPY bn 1 9801 8301 4068756141 8041 322 GDP: sar: D: Public JPY bn136 165135 563135 361135 515135 593135 197135 145 GDP: sar: D: Public: Government Consumption JPY bn109 130108 908108 430108 105108 108107 498107 534 GDP: sar: D: Public: Domestic Investment: Government JPY bn 27 00726 63526 91727 39427 42527 59827 524 GDP: sar: D: Public: Inventory Investment JPY bn 28 20 14 17 60 10088 GDP: sar: Gros Capital Formation(GCF) JPY bn136 443136 085133 073135 005132 217133 233132 396 GDP: sar: GCF: Of Which Changes in Inventories JPY bn 2 0091 8491 4208926741 9041 410 GDP: sar: Gros Fixed Capital Formation JPY bn134 434134 236131 652134 113131 543131 329130 986 GDP: sar: GFCF: Residential Investment JPY bn 17 55717 42117 17517 02817 30517 63618 141 GDP: sar: GFCF: Other Buildings %CHANGE(Over Year) % 3,694,665,184,484,926,078,178,86 Service Producer Price Index: YoY Growth Source: A CEIC Insights Report 23 Producer Price Index: YoY Growth CEIC Data MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Money Stock: M2 Foreign Curency Reserve Source: A CEIC Insights Report 24 Policy Rate Banking System: Loans & Deposits CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Foreign Exchange Reserve: Months of Import Source: A CEIC Insights Report 25 Tokyo: Index: Nikei: 25 (Daily Transaction) CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 Non Performing Loans Source: A CEIC Insights Report 26 Japan Government Bond Yield (Daily Transaction) CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 TSE: Index: TOPIX: 1 st Section (Daily Transaction) Source: A CEIC Insights Report 27 FX Rate: JPY/USD (Daily Transaction) CEIC Data MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 FOREX: Effective Foreign Exchange Rate: Real FX Rate: JPY/RMB (Daily Transaction) 28 Fiscal Sector Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Japan Economy in a Snapshot, Q2 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 29 Inadditiontoitsmonetarypolicystrategy,theThaigovernmenthasbeenstimulatingeconomic activitytoboostconsumerandinvestorconfidence.Forthefullfiscalyear2018,governmentreceipts amountedtoTHB2,524bn,lesthanthetargetofTHB2,750bn,whiletheexpenditurecametoTHB 3,007bn.TheresultingdiscrepancyledtoaprimarydeficitofTHB483bn,higherthanthelimitofTHB 450bnsetbythegovernment.Onaconsolidatedbasis,thebalancewaspositive,standingatasurplus ofTHB109.7bn,orequivalentto0.75%ofnominalGDP. AccordingtotheBudgetBureauDirector,thebudgetdeficitsituationisstilundercontrolgiventhe factthatthedeficitisundertheceilingsetbythebureauTHB710bnorlesthan20%ofanual expenditure.Recently,thegovernmenthassetgoalstoincreasetaxrevenueandreduceinfrastructure spendingthroughpublic-privatepartnerships(PP)andtheThailandFutureFund(TFIF),a governmen
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