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The Global Competitiveness Report SPECIAL EDITION 2020 How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery Klaus Schwab Saadia Zahidi World Economic Forum The Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery 2 Terms of use and disclaimer The analysis presented in the Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020 (herein: “report”) is based on a methodology integrating the latest statistics from international organizations and a survey of executives. The methodology, developed in collaboration with leading experts and practitioners through a three-year consultative process, is designed to support countries to identify relevant policies and practices. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Economic Forum. 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ISBN 978-2-940631-17-9 The report and an interactive data platform are available at weforum. 3 Contents Preface Executive Summary Introduction Section 1 Enabling Environment 1.1 What were the enabling environment-related priorities emerging from the past decade? 1.2 What are the priorities for the enabling environment for the revival of economies? 1.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of enabling environments? Section 2 Human Capital 2.1 What were the human capital-related priorities emerging from the past decade? 2.2 What are the priorities for human capital development for revival of economies? 2.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of human capital? Section 3 Markets 3.1 What were the markets-related priorities emerging from the past decade? 3.2 What are the priorities for markets to become a driving force in economic revival? 3.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of markets? Section 4 Innovation Ecosystem 4.1 What were the innovation ecosystem-related priorities emerging from the past decade? 4.2 What are the priorities for innovation ecosystem to for the revival of economies? 4.3 What are the priorities for the transformation of innovation ecosystem? Section 5 Measuring Economic Transformation Readiness Section 6 Disruptions and Resilience: Tracking the Impact of the Pandemic through Business Perceptions 6.1 The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on indicators of competitiveness 6.2 Key features of competitiveness that enhanced countries responses to the pandemic Appendix A Transformation Readiness Framework: Methodology and Definitions Appendix B - Transformation Readiness Performance by Score in Category Appendix C The Executive Opinion Survey: The Voice of the Business Community Contributors and Acknowledgements Partner Institutes 4 5 9 11 12 17 19 20 21 25 26 27 28 35 36 38 39 41 42 43 52 53 54 63 73 77 87 88 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery The Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery 4 Klaus Schwab Founder and Executive Chairman Saadia Zahidi Managing Director Preface The combined health and economic shocks of 2020 have impacted the livelihoods of millions of households, disrupted business activities, and exposed the fault lines in todays social protection and healthcare systems. The crisis has also further accelerated the effects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on trade, skills, digitization, competition and employment, and highlighted the disconnect between our economic systems and societal resilience. In this moment, it is crucial to not only reflect on how best to return to growth, but also, how to build back better economies that improve outcomes for people and the planet. This special edition of the Global Competitiveness Report provides the basis to support such deeper reflection, providing policymakers with priorities across three timeframes: those priorities that emerged from before the crisis, those priorities that are critical for the shorter term revival, and those priorities that are essential for longer term transformation for better outcomes on shared prosperity and sustainability in the future. Since 1979 the Global Competitiveness Report series has aimed to broaden the views of policymakers, business and the public on looking beyond growth alone to enhance economic productivity and broader resilience. In this Special Edition, at this turbulent time for the global economy, we pause comparative country rankings on the Global Competitiveness Index. Instead we take a fundamental look at how economies should think about revival and transformation as they recover and redesign their economic systems to enhance human development and compatibility with the environment. The Report provides pathways for leaders to take proactive steps to embed transformative policies, bold investments and new ventures into the recovery. Such an approach requires courageous vision and a nuanced balance between the short and long term. At the World Economic Forums New Economy and Society Platform, the home of The Global Competitiveness Report, provides an ecosystem for such actors. Over 200 leaders from government, business and civil society work together to shape a new vision, design new standards and drive scalable, collaborative action on four deeply interconnected areas: 1) economic growth, revival and transformation; 2) work, wages and job creation; 3) education, skills and learning; and 4) diversity, inclusion, equity and social justice. By combining insight, standards and action the Platform serves as an accelerator for leaders championing emerging solutions, pilots and partnerships. We invite like-minded leaders to join us to co-shape the new solutions highlighted in this report, working together with the urgency and ambition that the current context demands of us. We want to express our gratitude to the core project team involved in the production of this report: Roberto Crotti and Kusum Kali Pal, as well as their colleagues who supported the development of the new concepts for future transformation: Silja Baller, Sophie Brown, Attilio di Battista, Guillaume Hingel, and Vesselina Stefanova Ratcheva. Our deep gratitude goes to our network of Partner Institutes, which help administer the Executive Opinion Survey, whose results provide invaluable data. We hope this Special Edition of the Global Competitiveness Report will serve as a call to action to engage in the visionary and bold leadership required to build a new economic agenda for growing, productive, sustainable and inclusive economies that provide opportunities for all. This historic moment demands nothing less. The Global Competitiveness Report Special Edition 2020: How Countries are Performing on the Road to Recovery 5 The 2020 special edition of The Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) series comes out at a very difficult and uncertain historical moment. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has not only led to a global health crisis and deep economic recessiondeeper than the downturn during the 20082009 financial crisisbut has also created a climate of profound uncertainty about the future outlook. At this pivotal moment, there are growing calls for “building back better”. While the immediate priority is to respond to the health crisis, this moment in time also offers a unique opportunity to reflect on the fundamental drivers of growth and productivity that have degraded since the financial crisis. It is also a moment to determine how we may shape our economic systems in the future so that they are not just productive but also lead to environmental sustainability and shared prosperity. The Global Competitiveness Report series has since its first edition aimed to prompt policy- makers beyond short term growth and to aim for long-run prosperity. The 2019 edition of the Global Competitiveness Report showed how declining trends in fundamental aspects of productivity have been masked by long-standing accommodative monetary policy but have remained bottlenecks for strengthening economic development. This unusual moment calls for innovative and much-needed shifts in policy. Therefore, in 2020 the long-standing Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) rankings have been paused. Instead, this special edition is dedicated to elaborating on the priorities for recovery and revival, and considering the building blocks of a transformation towards new economic systems that combine “productivity”, “people” and “planet” targets. In 2021, the report will revert to a benchmarking exercise that will provide a new compass for the future direction of economic growth. This special edition analyses historical trends on factors of competitiveness as well as the latest thinking on future priorities. It provides recommendations against three timelines: a) those priorities that emerge from the historical analysis before the health crisis; b) those priorities needed to restart the economy, beyond immediate responses to the COVID-19 crisis, while embedding people and planet into economic policies (revival over the next 1-2 years); and c) those priorities and policies needed to reboot economic systems in the longer run to achieve sustainable and inclusive prosperity in the future (transformation over the next 3-5 years). Recommendations and timeframes are grouped into four broad areas of action: 1) reviving and transforming the enabling environment, 2) reviving and transforming human capital, 3) reviving and transforming markets, and 4) reviving and transforming the innovation ecosystem. An initial assessment of countries on readiness for transformation is also provided that converts key priorities into quantitative measures for 37 economies. The key findings of the report are summarized below. Reviving and transforming the enabling environment Before the COVID-19 crisis, a long-standing issue had been the ongoing and consistent erosion of institutions, as shown by declining or stalling checks and balances and transparency indicators. Against this backdrop, in the revival phase governments should prioritize improving long-term thinking capacity within governments and enhance mechanisms to deliver public services, including greater digitalization of public services. In the transformation phase, governments should work to ensure that public institutions embed strong governance principles and to regain public trust by serving their citizens. A second area of concern before the 2020 pandemic was high levels of debt in selected economies as well as widening inequalities. The emergency and stimulus measures have pushed already high public debt to unprecedented levels, while tax bases have continued eroding or shifting. To respond to these issues, in the revival phase, the priority should be on preparing support measures for highly indebted low-income countries and plan for future public debt deleveraging. In the longer run (transformation phase) countries should focus on shifting to more progressive taxation, rethinking how corporations, wealth and labour are taxed. This will require both national reforms
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