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Carbon capture and storage 1 06 Global CCS Institute August 2020 Reduce. Reuse.Recycle. Remove. Carbon capture and storage. Remove: Please see disclaimerCarbon capture and storage The views in this report are those of GCCSI and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the G20 Members collectively or individually or of KAPSARC.Carbon capture and storage Introduction 11 T able of contents 0 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 Executive summary Recommendations for government 07 10 Current status of CCS 15 Outlook 26 Carbon management potential 35 Barriers 52 Enabling policies 56Carbon capture and storage Figures Figure 1. Estimated CO Geological storage capacity billions of tonnes 17 Figure 2. Commercial CCS Facilities by Industry, Commencement of Operation, Remove, creating a new concept the Circular Carbon Economy (CCE). The CCE provides for the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (Carbon Direct Removal or CDR) and the prevention of carbon dioxide, once produced, from entering the atmosphere using carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CCE establishes a framework that respects the analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many others, that all conclude that CCS and CDR, alongside all other options, are essential to achieve climate targets. CCS describes a family of technologies that capture CO 2 from large point sources such as industrial facilities or power stations, compresses the CO 2 to a supercritical fluid, and injects it into suitable geological structures 800 meters or more beneath the earths surface for permanent storage. At those depths, the CO 2 remains a supercritical fluid, with a density similar to water. Executive summaryCarbon capture and storage 8 These technologies are not new. The first CO 2 capture processes were commercialized in natural gas processing almost 90 years ago. Geological storage of CO 2 , in the course of Enhanced Oil Recovery, commenced almost 50 years ago. Continuous dedicated geological storage of CO 2 commenced more than 20 years ago. T oday, 21 commercial CCS facilities with a total capacity of 40Mtpa CO 2 are operating, three more are in construction, 16 are in advanced development and approximately another 20 are in early development. Each of these facilities is or will permanently store hundreds of thousands of tonnes of CO 2 per year, and several store more than one million tonnes of CO 2 each year, captured from power and industrial facilities. T o date, approximately 260Mt of anthropogenic carbon dioxide has been safely and permanently stored in geological formations. They also continue to improve, as expected for any industrial technology. The cost of capturing CO 2 from power stations has halved over the past decade and the next generation of capture technologies offer further reductions in cost. The lowest cost opportunities for CCS can deliver multi-million tonne CO 2 abatement at a single facility, at a cost of less than USD20 per tonne. In addition to capturing CO 2 at its source, CO 2 must be removed from the atmosphere to achieve climate targets. The capture of CO 2 from the utilization of biomass, and directly from the atmosphere followed by permanent geological storage (BECCS and Direct Air Capture with storage: DACS) are important negative emission technologies offering higher security and greater flexibility than nature-based solutions, which are also essential. CCS encompasses a versatile suite of technologies that can be applied to almost any source of carbon dioxide. It is this versatility that underpins its enormous carbon management potential. The IPCCs Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees Celsius published in 2018 reviewed 90 scenarios, almost all of which required CCS to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The average mass of CO 2 permanently stored in the year 2050 across all scenarios reviewed by the IPCC report was 10Gt. The IPCC constructed four illustrative pathways to represent the range of 1.5 degree scenarios in the models it reviewed. Three of the four illustrative pathways required CCS with cumulative CO 2 storage to the year 2100 of between 348Gt and 1,218Gt. The fourth illustrative pathway required final energy demand to reduce by one third by 2050 compared to 2010. The lowest risk pathway probably lies somewhere in the middle. In any case, it is clear that CCS has a carbon management potential this century of hundreds to thousands of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide.Carbon capture and storage 9 However, like renewable energy, nuclear power and many other essential technologies, CCS is not being deployed at the rate and scale necessary to achieve climate targets. The reason is that the incentive for investment in CCS is generally insufficient to mobilize the requisite capital. There are several market failures across the CCS value chain that directly affect the business case for CCS. For a potential capture plant developer, the main impediment to investment is the lack of a sufficient value on emissions reductions. Without this, there is no incentive for a developer to incur the costs of constructing and operating the capture plant, even though it may be beneficial from a broader societal perspective in helping to meet climate targets cost effectively. In economic terms, CO 2 emissions are an externality. Even where there is a value on emissions reductions, financiers and investors perceive CCS as risky, due to a range of factors mostly related to the immaturity of the CCS industry. The business norms that reduce perceived risk in mature industries have not yet developed for CCS and the result is a risk premium that is applied to the cost of capital undermining the investability of projects. Capital intensive investments like CCS are exposed to many classes of risk. Most of these risks are best managed by the value chain actors. However there are also hard to manage risks that the private sector is unwilling or unable to take on at an appropriate price. These risks are usually managed through government policy and regulation. For example, corporate law provides a general framework for undertaking business that significantly reduces the risk of undetected dishonest behavior by counterparties. For CCS, there are three specific hard to manage risks: Policy and revenue risk Cross chain risk CO storage liability risk All things considered, it is clear that the primary barrier to the deployment of CCS at the rate and scale necessary to achieve climate targets is the difficulty in developing a project that delivers a sufficiently high risk-weighted return on investment to attract private capital. In order to deliver the public good of a stable climate, governments should introduce policies and make investments that incentivize private sector investment in CCS, and all other low emission technologies. Government alone will not solve the challenge of climate change. The solutions (and there are many) will be developed, commercialised and deployed by the private sector which has enormous resources and capabilities. All that is required are the incentives to mobilise private capital, and the creation of those incentives is entirely within the purview of governmentCarbon capture and storage 10 Recommendation 1. Based on rigorous analysis define the role of CCS in meeting national emission reduction targets and communicate this to industry and the public. Recommendation 2. Create a certain, long term, high value on the storage of CO . Recommendation 3. Support the identification and appraisal of geological storage resources leverage any existing data collected for hydrocarbon exploration. Recommendation 4. Develop and promulgate specific CCS laws and regulations that: establish clear processes for project developers to secure the right to exploit geological storage resources allow developers to effectively manage compliance risk associated with CO storage operations, and provides for the commercially acceptable management of long-term liability for stored CO . Recommendation 5. Identify opportunities for CCS hubs and facilitate their establishment. Consider being the first investor in CO transport and storage infrastructure to service the first hubs. Recommendation 6. Provide low cost finance and/ or guarantees or take equity to reduce the cost of capital for CCS investments. Recommendation 7. Where necessary, provide material capital grants to CCS projects/hubs to initiate private investment. Recommendations for governmentCarbon capture and storage 11 01 Introduction Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage 12 The Challenge of Achieving Net-Zero Emissions Preventing dangerous interference with the global climate system will require anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to reach net-zero in the second half of this century. This means arriving at a steady state equilibrium in carbon cycles by either having no more anthropogenic emissions, or having any emissions balanced by corresponding removals of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere by enhanced sinks. This must occur against the backdrop of a rising human population and increasing affluence, especially in developing economies which are delivering a rapid rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. In summary, there will be more people with a significantly greater average economic capacity to consume goods and services. The Japanese economist Y oichi Kaya describes the relationship between CO 2 emissions, population, energy use and GDP in his famous equation known as the Kaya identity. 1 Where: F = global CO emissions from human use of energy P = global population G = global GDP E = global consumption of energy The identity shows that CO 2 emissions are proportional to population (P), GDP per capita (G/P), the energy intensity of the global economy (E/G) and the emissions intensity of the global energy system (F/E). Adopting assumptions used by the International Energy Agency, 2 global population will grow from 7.6 billion in 2018 to 9.2 billion by 2040, global GDP will grow at a compound average annual rate of 3.4% to 2040 and energy efficiency (E/G) will improve by 2.3% per year. Substituting these values into the Kaya Identity shows that global anthropogenic emissions could be 51% higher in 2040 compared to 2018 if the emissions intensity of energy remains unchanged. This demonstrates the criticality of developing a near-zero emissions global energy system as the emissions intensity of energy is the only variable left to proactive intervention. Whilst the emissions intensity of the global energy system is already falling, it will not achieve near-zero status without strong policy action that takes advantage of every opportunity to reduce emissions. Introduction 1 Kaya, Y oichi; Y okoburi, Keiichi (1997). Environment, energy, and economy : strategies for sustainability. T okyo u.a.: United Nations Univ. Press. ISBN 9280809113. 2 IEA (2019) World Energy Outlook 2019, Stated Polices ScenarioCarbon capture and storage 13 A More Progressive Approach is Necessary A framework that is inclusive of all carbon mitigation options is required to avoid the trap of sub- optimisation, where a system yields less than the best possible outcome due to poor coordination between its different component parts. In the context of achieving net-zero emissions, focusing on a subset of the available opportunities and failing to apply sufficient resources to others is a textbook example of sub-optimisation. The Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) concept developed by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) helps to address this risk by creating a framework that recognizes and values all emission reduction options. 3 The CCE builds upon the well-established Circular Economy concept, which consists of the “three Rs” which are Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. The Circular Economy is effective in describing an approach to sustainability considering the efficient utilization of resources and wastes however it is not sufficient to describe a wholistic approach to mitigating carbon dioxide emissions. This is because it does not explicitly make provision for the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (Carbon Direct Removal or CDR) or the prevention of carbon dioxide, once produced, from entering the atmosphere using carbon capture and storage (CCS). Rigorous analysis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and many others all conclude that CCS and CDR are essential to achieve climate targets. An approach that is more progressive than the Circular Economy is required for climate action. T o that end, the Circular Carbon Economy adds a fourth “R” to the “three Rs” of the Circular Economy; Remove. Remove includes measures which remove CO 2 from atmosphere or prevent it from entering the atmosphere after it has been produced such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) at industrial and energy facilities, bio-energy with CCS (BECCS), Direct Air Capture (DAC) with geological storage, and afforestation. Measures taken under the Remove dimension of the Circular Carbon Economy contribute to climate mitigation by storing carbon dioxide in the geosphere (CCS or DAC with geological storage) or in the biosphere (nature-based solutions such as afforestation). However, CO stored in the biosphere via nature-based solutions may be susceptible to release due to natural phenomena such as fires, droughts or disease (of plants). T echnology-based solutions such as CCS and DAC with geological storage offer extremely secure and permanent storage of CO , which is not susceptible to disruption from fire or weather, as well as requiring very little land for facilities with a capacity to provide multi mega-tonne per annum abatement. 3 KAPSARC (2019). Instant Insight, November 06, 2019. Achieving Climate Goals by Closing the Loop in a Circular Carbon EconomyCarbon capture and storage 14 Both nature-based and technology-based solutions are essential elements of a comprehensive approach to driving CO emissions towards net-zero. The critical requirement for success in achieving climate targets is that both technology-based and nature-based solutions under the Remove dimension, along with all other options under the other “three Rs” of the Circular Carbon Economy, are available for selection and that incentives for investment enable deployment of the best option in each circumstance, whatever that may beCarbon capture and storage 15 02 Current status of CCS Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage 16 Introduction to Carbon Capture and Storage CCS describes a family of technologies that capture CO from large point sources such as industrial facilities or power stations, compresses the CO to a supercritical fluid, and injects it into suitable geological structures 800 meters or more beneath the Earths surface for permanent storage. At those depths, the CO will remain a supercritical fluid, with a density similar to water. T
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