资源描述
1 / 36 2021 05 31 -618 - 2021.5.30 - 冭 - 2021.5.23 -4 +17.7% - 2021.5.17 S0790519110001 S0790121010071 2019 1436 2015-2019 CAGR=22.5% 3.6% 20.5% + 85% 50% 5 1 + 2-3 1 & 47.6 2019 2015-2019 CAGR=26% 40 冭 Aqua 2 35 CAGR=31% 4 3 4 & -31% -15% 0% 15% 31% 46% 62% 2020-06 2020-10 2021-02 3002 / 36 1 . 5 2 & & . 13 3 & . 15 3.1 . 16 3.2 & . 17 4 . 21 5 . 23 5.1 . 23 5.2 . 25 5.3 . 26 5.4 & . 27 6 & & & & & . 28 6.1 . 28 6.2 . 29 6.3 . 30 6.4 + . 31 6.5 . 32 6.6 . 33 7 . 34 1 . 6 2 2019 . 7 3 . 8 4 . 9 5 . 10 6 . 11 7 . 11 8 . 11 9 2030 6.5% . 12 10 25-30 . 12 11 5 CAGR 21% . 12 12 . 13 13 . 13 14 . 13 15 . 13 16 . 14 17 30 . 14 18 . 14 19 2024 120 . 15 20 . 153 / 36 21 “ ” . 16 22 . 16 23 . 16 24 . 17 25 冭 . 17 26 . 17 27 . 17 28 /ml . 18 29 . 21 30 . 21 31 . 21 32 . 23 33 . 23 34 . 24 35 . 25 36 . 26 37 . 26 38 “ ” . 27 39 “ ” “ ” . 27 40 . 28 41 . 28 42 . 28 43 冭 . 28 44 . 29 45 . 29 46 . 29 47 . 29 48 2020 . 30 49 . 30 50 2020 . 30 51 . 30 52 . 31 53 2020 . 31 54 . 31 55 . 32 56 . 32 57 . 32 58 . 32 59 . 33 60 . 33 61 . 33 62 . 33 1 . 15 2 2020 40 . 184 / 36 3 . 22 4 . 24 5 2 . 25 6 MINT . 26 7 . 345 / 36 1 2019 1436 2015-2019 CAGR 22.5% B C C B C & 40 4 46 / 36 1 Frost7 / 36 Frost & Sullivan 2019 2784 1436 2015-2019 CAGR=22.5% 836 600 1 2 3 4 2 2019 Frost & Sullivan CAGR 2015-2019 47.6 2019 CAGR=26.2% 300-2000 / 3-6 3500 12 200-4000 / 3 7000 6 2-20 / 1 5 10 2000-10000 / 1 6000 6-12 36.0 2019 CAGR=31.2% 309 CAGR= 24.4% 836 CAGR=21.1% 3000-20000 / 1 8000 2-3 1-5 / 1 3 5-10 1-1.5 / 1 1 1-3 1000-8000 / 1-3 3500 6-12 600-4000 / 1 2000 6-12 0.6-2.5 / 2-3 6 1-2 2500-8000 / 1-2 4500 1-2 & 1000-5000 / 1 2500 6 3000-8000 / 3 1.5 1 1000-8000 / 3-6 1.2 1 600 CAGR= 24.68 / 36 3 2019 SINON Pico clear EndyMed Thermolift Accentuate Reshape Cooltech Define Glacial Spa Glacial Rx CoolSculpting 冭 MaiLi Perfectha Hugel Juv derm Restylane 瑅 Lyft 瑅Vital Hutox Meditoxin Jetema ET-01 AI-09 Letybo Botox Dysport Ellans Sculptra GLP-1 RZL012 Silhouette Instalift 7.09 26.33 336.83 13.32 24.64 - 1.62 160.89 - 47.2% 47.6% 6.6% -0.5% -3.5% - 5.7% - - 4.40 6.46 28.20 2.30 4.73 - 0.13 - - 74.9% 42.7% 16.6% -14.8% -31.1% - 5.7% - - 92.2% 81.4% 33.1% 74.9% 77.7% - 55.7% 84.5% - 10.4% 41.8% 17.7% 41.7% 15.0% - 26.6% - - 6.1% 6.2% 3.0% 16.1% 19.9% - 9.8% - - 8.7% 5.4% 2.8% 9.5% 29.6% - 6.8% - - 62.1% 24.5% 8.4% 17.3% 19.2% - 8.0% - - 63.1% 35.6% 0.3% 1.1% 51.2% 26.7% 21.9% 0.2% 65% 32% 3% 42.5% 24.9% 18.2% 12.9% 1.6% - - 72.2% 12.4% 8.9% 2.6% 4.0% - - / 2020 3 CAGR 3 CAGR9 / 36 2019 47.6 2015-2019 CAGR=26.1% 40 Aqua 冭 & 4 2019 35 2015-2019 CAGR=31% 2019 55.6% 44.4% 2020 5 1-3 4 600-1000 /ml 9000-15000 /ml 瑅 Q-Med 6000-10000 /ml LG 2000-4000 /ml 1000-3000 /ml 1ml 500-1000 /ml 6000-12000 /ml 瑅，Q-Med 6000-9000 /ml 2.5 600-1600 /ml 1000-2000 /ml Filorga 1000-3000 /ml Letybo Hugel 1000-1500 /100 Botox 3000-6000 /100 600-1000 /100 Dysport IPSEN 2000-4000 /100 Jetema Jetema Hutox Hunos PLLA PLC+CMC Sculptra 10000-15000 / Ellans 10000-15000 / & 200-1000 / Fotona4D Pro Fotona 5000-8000 / M22 600-2000 / Solta Medical 6000-25000 / 1000-7000 / 10 / 36 3200 0.8 + 3.2 1 = 4 25 4 9 + 327 216 = 352 1832 352 960 250 270 + 1368 1122 620 246 = 3200 5 9 55% 15% 4 80% 25% 352 90% 60% 3200 50% 8% 620 20% 3200 352 3200 4 216 246 1 3.2 327 1368 620 9 148011 / 36 & & 6 6-9 2-3 6 7 8 2017 4 2016 5 2016 5 2016 5 2016 5 2014 7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2009.10 2012.10 2015.04 2016.12 2016.12 2019 NMPA 12-24 6-12 3 90 60 20 10 1 18-36 6-9 3012 / 36 Frost&Sullivan 2018 2019 1 1.4%/1.7% 2 3 2018 2019 1 2 3 9 2030 6.5% Frost&Sullivan 1 2 2024/2029/2034 3722/5435/7172 2019 5/10/15 21%/14%/11% 10 25-30 11 5 CAGR 21% Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 2018 0.1% 9.3% 11.0% 6.5% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 2019 0.3% 17.1% 14.6% 6.7% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.9% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 2020E 0.6% 23.1% 16.6% 7.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.2% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 2.4% 2021E 0.8% 28.1% 18.1% 8.7% 5.2% 2.2% 0.3% 2.9% 3.0% 2.2% 1.6% 0.3% 3.0% 2022E 0.9% 32.1% 19.4% 9.7% 6.2% 3.0% 0.4% 3.4% 3.5% 2.7% 2.1% 0.4% 3.6% 2023E 1.0% 35.1% 20.4% 10.7% 7.2% 3.7% 0.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 0.5% 4.1% 2024E 1.1% 37.1% 21.4% 11.7% 8.2% 4.3% 0.6% 4.4% 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 0.6% 4.5% 2025E 1.2% 38.1% 22.4% 12.7% 9.2% 4.8% 0.7% 4.9% 5.0% 4.2% 3.6% 0.7% 4.9% 2026E 1.3% 39.1% 23.4% 13.7% 10.2% 5.2% 0.8% 5.4% 5.5% 4.7% 4.1% 0.8% 5.3% 2027E 1.4% 40.1% 24.4% 14.7% 11.2% 5.5% 0.9% 5.9% 6.0% 5.2% 4.6% 0.9% 5.6% 2028E 1.5% 41.1% 25.4% 15.7% 12.2% 5.7% 1.0% 6.4% 6.5% 5.7% 5.1% 1.0% 5.9% 2029E 1.6% 42.1% 26.4% 16.7% 13.2% 5.8% 1.1% 6.9% 7.0% 6.2% 5.6% 1.1% 6.2% 2030E 1.7% 43.1% 27.4% 17.7% 14.2% 5.9% 1.2% 7.4% 7.5% 6.7% 6.1% 1.2% 6.5% 2031E 1.8% 44.1% 28.4% 18.7% 15.2% 6.0% 1.3% 7.9% 8.0% 7.2% 6.6% 1.3% 6.8% 2032E 1.9% 45.1% 29.4% 19.7% 16.2% 6.1% 1.4% 8.4% 8.5% 7.7% 7.1% 1.4% 7.0% 2033E 2.0% 46.1% 30.4% 20.7% 17.2% 6.2% 1.5% 8.9% 9.0% 8.2% 7.6% 1.5% 7.3% 2034E 2.1% 47.1% 31.4% 21.7% 18.2% 6.3% 1.6% 9.4% 9.5% 8.7% 8.1% 1.6% 7.6% 2035E 2.2% 48.1% 32.4% 22.7% 19.2% 6.4% 1.7% 9.9% 10.0% 9.2% 8.6% 1.7% 7.9% 2019 1000 4500 8000 6000 5000 4000 2020E 1040 4600 8200 6200 5100 4100 2021E 1080 4700 8400 6400 5200 4200 2022E 1120 4800 8600 6600 5300 4300 2023E 1160 4900 8800 6800 5400 4400 2024E 1200 5000 9000 7000 5500 4500 2025E 1227 5091 9091 7182 5545 4545 2026E 1255 5182 9182 7364 5591 4591 2027E 1282 5273 9273 7545 5636 4636 2028E 1309 5364 9364 7727 5682 4682 2029E 1336 5455 9455 7909 5727 4727 2030E 1364 5545 9545 8091 5773 4773 2031E 1391 5636 9636 8273 5818 4818 2032E 1418 5727 9727 8455 5864 4864 2033E 1445 5818 9818 8636 5909 4909 2034E 1473 5909 9909 8818 5955 4955 2035E 1500 6000 10000 9000 6000 5000 1436 3722 5435 7172 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E13 / 36 2 & & Frost & Sullivan 2019 1436 2015-2019 CAGR=22.5% 2019 3.6% 11.0% 16.6% 20.5% Frost & Sullivan 2024 3185 2019-2024 CAGR 17% 12 13 Frost & Sullivan 53% / 14 15 638 776 993 1217 1436 1518 1846 2232 2678 3185 643 761 932 1079 1349 1416 1728 2039 2365 2672 1281 1537 1925 2296 2785 2934 3574 4271 5043 5857 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2.4% 10.3% 15.7% 18.2% 3.6% 11.0% 16.6% 20.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2014 2019 10.8% 18.1% 29.2% 22.1% 11.6% 4.9% 3.3% 49.3% 49.6% 53.414 / 36 & 2018-2019 20 -35 2020 60% 25-35 & 2019 2018 20 20-25 1.2pct/5.8pct 30 3000 16 17 30 2019 38% 2023 48% 18 1.0% 1.2% 2.9% 4.5% 3.3% 0.4% 4.8% 6.6% 16.7% 30.6% 26.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% 2.7% 3.7% 2.1% 0.1% 5.9% 8.4% 20.4% 33.7% 20.2% 0.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 40 35-40 30-35 25-30 20-25 20 40 35-40 30-35 25-30 20-25 20 2018 2019 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 / / /15 / 36 3 & 1 40 100 1-6 100 180 6-12 180 220 12 Frost&Sullivan 2019 47.6 2015-2019 CAGR 26.2% 65% LG 2019 42% 2016 20.5% 2019 28.1% 2016-2019 5.7%/7.0%/8.6%/14.0% Frost & Sullivan 2024 120 19 2024 120 20 Frost & Sullivan Frost & Sullivan 18.8 47.6 120.4 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 26.8% 22.6% 16.4% 19.7% 18.4% 14.5% 12.7% 7.6% 5.7% 14.0% 7.0% 8.1% 7.8% 6.0% 5.2% 7.4% 2016 2017 2018 2019 LG16 / 36 3.1 3-4 20-30 6 -1 C PRP C 21 22 1200-2500 4000-8000 Filogar Cytocare 23 720 2720 1480 366 349 1590 1489.5 4025 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Aqua 2.5 /17 / 36 1 2020 Aqua HEC 18 + + 2 2021 5 冭 L- 24 25 冭 冭 3.2 & 26 2718 / 36 28 /ml 2 2020 40 NMPA LG Life Sciences,Ltd. C 20173462005 V 20183461717 , V plus 20163461014 C plus 20163461014 Allergan 20153461709 20153461708 20193130410 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 ( ) ( ) 2 C V19 / 36 NMPA / 20203130165 Q-Med AB 瑅 20193130625 Restylane Lidocaine 20173646998 Restylane Perlane 20183460227 ( ) 2009 3460746 2012 3461290 80% 20% 20153460674 20163461804 20163461809 20143132037 20143462037 - 20163460861 - 20193130257 Aqua 20203130295 20203130568 20203130569 Humedix Co.,Ltd. 20153460263 Elravie Deep Line L 20193130565 2015346001420 / 36 NMPA 20163461492 20203130314 2014 3460382 20143460047 20153461332 20203130096 20163460035 CROMA GmbH Princess V olume 20173465168 20173463254 BEED 20183460109 20193130095 Artfiller Universal 20193130526 2019313062721 / 36 4 A 6-8 29 Frost&Sullivan 2019 36 2015-2019 CAGR 31.2% 2024 80 CAGR 17.5% 70 -00 APP 2019 2020 30 31 Frost & Sullivan APP 12 36 80 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 9022 / 36 4 2021 3 A Hugel 2019 56% 2019 44% 2019 70% Merz Bocouture/Xeomin Huons Revance Jetema 1-3 3 / Allergan 2009 2000-3000 /50unit 900kDa 50/100U 0.5cm - 2012 1000-1500 /50unit 300/500/900 kDa 50/100U 1cm / Ipsen 2020 6 1200-2000 /50unit 500/900kDa 500U 0.5cm / Hugel 2020 10 1500-2000 /50unit 900kDa 20/100U 0.5cm / Bocouture/Xeomin Merz 2000 /50unit 150kDa 50/100U 0.5cm Nabota/Neurotoxin - 1000-2000 /50unit 900kDa 100U 0.5cm Hutox Huons 900kDa 100U 0.5cm RT002 Revance 150kDa Jetema 900kDa 100U23 / 36 5 5.1 500-1200 500 600-700 IPL OPT AOPT BBL Sciton Profile DPL 360 Picosure 2017 II III III 32 3324 / 36 34 Fotona Candela Cynosure Lumenis Alma Lasers 4 NMPA CC 20192092744 198-899 / 2024-07-28 M22 20173247065 Lumenis Limited 5802000 / 2022-11-21 20143245102 Alma Lasers 800-1200 / 2024-10-14 Profile 20173240118 Sciton 28006000 / 2022-01-12 Icon 20163243102 Cynosure, Inc. 1000-1200 / 2021-11-13 Fotona4D Pro 20183012266 Fotona 5000-8000 / 2023-08-19 APP 365 32% 18% 15% 10% 6% 6% 5% 5% 3% GSD25 / 36 5.2 2020 35 2 1 14 / 2 / 3 6 1 Solta Medical 2002 Thermacool TC Thermage FLX 3 50 5 2 1.53mm 4.3mm 1 24 14 / 7526 / 36 5.3 400020000 8 2 36 37 MINT MINT PPDO PDO PPDO PDO MINT MINT 6 MINT 2019.5 PPDO 180-220 MINT 2019.6 PDO 3D 36027 / 36 5.4 & Sculptra PLLA PLLA PLLA Sculptra DermaVeil Aesthefill 取得 类医 疗器 械产品 注册 证 的 38 Sinclair Ellans S/M/L/E 1/2/3/4 PCL CMC PCL PLLA CMC Ellans-S 类 20213130100 2021 3928 / 36 6 & & & & & 6.1 2020 7.09 +27.18% 4.4 +43.93% 2021Q1 2.59 +227.52% 1.71 +296.50% 2021Q1 92.5% 63.9% 40 41 Wind Wind 2020 4.47 +82.85% 63% 2.52 -19.21% 21 /9 冭 42 43 冭 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 93.7% 91.3% 87.2%86.1% 89.3% 92.6%92.2%92.5% 37.8% 15.8% 37.7% 34.5% 36.2% 53.4% 61.1% 63.9% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 63.1% 35.6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 2018 2019 202029 / 36 6.2 + 2020 26.33 +39.6% 6.46 +10.3% 2021Q1 7.77 +111.1% 1.52 +41.1% 2021Q1 78.7% 2021Q1 19.6% 44 45 Wind Wind 2020 7.0 /5.8 /13.5 26.7%/21.9%/51.2% 2020 & 2020 Aqua 2021 5 46 47 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 77.4% 75.5% 79.9% 79.7% 81.4% 78.7% 36.8% 27.2% 33.6% 31.0% 24.5% 19.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 27% 22% 51% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Wonderlab30 / 36 6.3 2020 336.8 -5.0% 28.2 +0.2% 2015-2020 9.2%/20.8% 2021Q1 89.0 +3.5% 7.6 -33.9% 2021Q1 34.7%/8.7% 48 2020 49 Wind Wind 2020 230.1 -8.3% /114.0 +4.9% /9.4 -29.0% 66.3%/32.8%/2.8% Ellanse- 4 50 2020 51 -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 24.3% 26.1% 29.0% 32.0% 33.1% 34.7% 6.0% 6.8% 7.8% 8.3% 8.6% 8.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 , 230.1 , 65% , 114.0 , 32% , 9.4 , 331 / 36 6.4 + + 2020 24.6 -14.4% 4.73 52 53 2020 Wind Wind 2014 Hugel 2020 10 54 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -300% -250% -200% -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 202032 / 36 6.5 2007 2020 13.32 -16.95% 2.3 -37.95% 2021Q1 3.83 +149.05% 0.97 +490.23% 2021Q1 74.8% 26.0% 55 56 Wind Wind 2020 5.7 /3.3 /2.4 /1.7 42.5%/24.9%/18.2%/12.9% 2020 2021 2 63.64% 3 Eirion 57 58 -50% 50% 150% 250% 350% 450% 550% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 83.6% 78.7% 78.5% 77.3% 74.9% 74.8% 36.1% 29.5% 29.2% 23.5% 17.0% 26.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 42.5% 24.9% 18.2% 12.9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 2018 2019 202033 / 36 6.6 2020 Medical Insight 2016 4.4% 16.2% 2020 1.62 -6.6% 0.13 -35.8% 2020 55.7% 0.4pct 2020 9.1% 59 60 Wind Wind 2020 1.17/0.2 -5.9%/-9.2% 83.3% 2020 0.14/0.04 +30.7%/+34.2% 2019 RZL-012 61 62 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 52.7% 53.5% 53.5% 55.3% 55.7% 7.2% 8.1% 14.2% 12.6% 9.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 71.1% 12.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 2018 2019 202034 / 36 7 / / EPS PE 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 300896.SZ 1,464 676.67 3.24 4.85 6.93 209 139 98 688363.SH 1,292 269.10 1.65 2.26 2.93 163 119 92 000963.SZ 924 52.82 1.72 1.99 2.37 31 26 22 688366.SH 311 202.98 2.50 3.31 4.28 81 61 47 0460.HK 360 3.80 0.08 0.12 0.17 48 32 22 1696.HK 92 20.80 - - - - - - Wind 1 2021 5 31 2 EPS Wind 3 EPS 7 1 2 335 / 36 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50036 / 36 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
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