资源描述
2021 2021 5 12 S0790520100002 2021 2020 2021 3 2020 6 -7 3C 2021 45.7 YoY+25.55 600 / 2021 46.4 YoY+19.28 2021CONTENTS 1 2 3 4 51.1 2020 2021 4 730 1180 1060 490 5270 5770 5700 6180 2021 4 475 2020 2020 2 -200 0 200 400 600 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Wind 1 4 475 2020 2 4 327 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Wind1.1 4 700 1000 2018 2021 Wind 3 660 4 987 Wind -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Jan-15 Mar-16 May-17 Jul-18 Sep-19 Nov-20 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan-15 Mar-16 May-17 Jul-18 Sep-19 Nov-201.2 5 75% Wind 55% 75% , 54.69% , 17.94% , 8.23% , 2.26% , 2.86% , 3.67% , 3.18% , 7.171.2 Wind 6 Wind 2015 2021 1-3 1-3 11.6% 2019 16.2% 1-3 2020 25.6% 2019 15.9% 2021 4 1.2.1 7 (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Feb-19 Feb-21 : : % : : % : % (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 Feb-18 Feb-20 动态库销比：潜在库存（左轴） 房地产开发投资完成额: 累计同比（% ，右轴） 商品房销售面积: 住宅: 累计同比（右轴，1.2 Wind 8 2021 3 9 Wind 2020 2021 2021 3 -8% 2021 1-3 1.2.2 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2020-12 2021-03 2020-03 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2016/2 2016/10 2017/6 2018/2 2018/10 2019/6 2020/2 2020/101.2 Wind 10 M2 11 Wind 2021 2020 3 M2 10.1% 2007 3 M2 24.26% M2 1.2.3 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2017-01 2017-09 2018-05 2019-01 2019-09 2020-05 2021-01 M2 M2 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 May-19 Jan-20 Sep-2015% 2021 2020 2021 1-3 3659 4 1 1.3 / / 2020/12/28 2021 2021/1/4 2021 2021 2021/1/26 2021/1/27 2020 2021 2021/2/7 2021/2/22 2021/3/1 2021/3/5 2021/4/1 / 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 2021 xx 12 2021 1-3 15.6% Wind -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 2020-12 2021-03 YoY3 3 4 Mysteel 4 126 66 114.1 58.93% 1.34% 2020 22.73% Mysteel 2021.3.20-12.31 3037 3555 2020 1126 1.3 3 4 21 -6 30 t / 1 93 / 93% 40.9 41.6 62.4 11672.7 2 91 -3 88% 111.2 120.6 181 31100.7 3 88 -3 85% 55.9 61.1 91.6 16845.1 4 87 / 87% 204.5 207.4 311.1 57184.1 5 87 -3 84% 90.1 111.2 166.8 30436.1 6 86 -3 83% 53.8 57.9 86.9 14255.6 7 86 / 86% 96.5 79.7 119.6 23917.4 8 79 -3 76% 16.9 15.1 22.6 4518.4 9 75 -3 72% 40.4 43.6 65.4 13079.7 10 72 / 72% 27 26.2 39.2 7847.8 11 71 -3 68% 22 23.4 35.1 5839.6 12 71 -3 68% 41.2 49.8 74.7 12577.7 13 71 -6 65% 30.2 29.8 44.7 8931.2 14 69 -3 66% 20.7 25.3 37.9 6430.9 15 69 -3 66% 42.3 45.7 68.1 11706.3 16 69 -3 66% 11.4 13.1 19.6 3923.9 17 69 -6 63% 12.6 7.6 11.4 2289 / / / / / / / 18 69 -6 63% 7.4 7.6 11.4 2289 1.41 1.41-12.67 / 2 A A B- B- B- B- B- C C C C C C C C C D D D D D D D D D Mysteel Mysteel3 2018 2021 2021 1.3 Wind , 23.7% , 11.5% , 7.6% , 7.2% , 6.3% , 3.5% , 3.4% , 3.4% , 3.2% , 30.2% 13 506 1 4 Mysteel 2017 2021.5.6 + 2 + 2 6 ” 1.25 1 1.5:1 1.25:1 1.25:1 1.1:1 1 6 1 2 3 4 Corex Finex HIsmelt 4 - -AOD 5 2016 2016 2 1. 2. 1.5:1 1.25:1 3. 4. 1.31 - 75% 14 15 75% Mysteel 47.0% 28.7% 1.7% 7.3% 3.3% 12.0% 47.8% 33.5% 5.5% 1.6% 1.2% 5.8% 4.6% Mysteel 16 81% 2 81% Mysteel - 85% 15% 1.33.1t 67% 9.3% 8.5% 1.86t 87% 5 t t 0.19 6% 1.613 86.80% 0.265 9% 0.034 1% 2.079 67% 0.288 9% 0.246 8% 0.246 13.20% 3.102 100% 1.859 100% 1.3 1. 2.2021 3 6 Wind 2021 5 7 Wind 17 2015 1.4 2020 / 600010.SH 1.68 766 456 1546 4952 600507.SH 9.25 199 22 422 4729 600126.SH 5.98 202 34 437 4620 600019.SH 9.03 2011 223 4562 4408 000825.SZ 7.67 437 57 1069 4088 601005.SH 2.75 245 89 678 3619 600282.SH 4.47 275 62 1021 2696 600117.SH 4.22 44 10 193 2285 600782.SH 6.99 223 32 983 2268 000761.SZ 4.75 184 39 841 2190 000932.SZ 8.41 515 61 2516 2049 601003.SH 7.6 195 26 962 2025 000898.SZ 5.2 489 94 2457 1991 002110.SZ 8.73 214 25 1153 1856 600808.SH 4.54 350 77 1986 1760 600231.SH 3.38 96 28 576 1659 000717.SZ 5.5 133 24 802 1658 600307.SH 2.26 142 63 875 1617 000959.SZ 5.57 295 53 1833 1607 000778.SZ 4.27 170 40 1068 1596 600581.SH 6.02 92 15 597 1546 600569.SH 3.72 107 29 799 1338 600022.SH 1.92 210 109 1601 1313 000709.SZ 2.81 298 106 2487 1200 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2015-01-03 2017-01-03 2019-01-03 2021-01-03 : : PB/ 300PB1.4 - 2020 4597 2019 2021 6 5000 2020 80% 50% 30% + - 1/3 2020 2678 2516 YoY+10.2% 10.0% 17 - 60% 1260 450 300 400 50% 2020 987 379 2023 3 450 1500- 24% 2020 18.7 15.5 2.6 49 1.4 - 72% 2020 268 424.74 19.3 2021 401.8 18.8 - 2020 90% 52% 1810 821 YoY+5% 1012 YoY+18% 154 + + 380 - 60% 1000 700 2020 909 YoY+4% 2021 955CONTENTS 1 2 3 4 52.1 IAI 18 2020 57% 19 2020 59% 2013 51% 2020 3708 57% YoY+4.9% 2012-2020 CAGR 6.1% 3.6% 2020 3825 YoY+5% 59% 2020 2021 2 2.1.1 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % , 59% , 412.1 Wind 20 2017 4400-4500 2.1.2 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2015-01 2015-10 2016-07 2017-04 2018-01 2018-10 2019-07 2020-04 2021-012.1 Wind ALD 21 2021 3 22 2021 Wind 2020 ALD 3 336 YoY+9% 2020 2021 122 2.1.3 200 250 300 350 400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 50 100 150 200 250 2018-01-02 2019-01-02 2020-01-02 2021-01-022.1 Mysteel 23 24 2020H1 Wind 33% 21% 12% 66% 2.1.3 , 33% , 21% , 12% , 10% , 8% , 8% , 4% , 4% 26 2020 Wind 25 2020 Wind -100 -50 0 50 100 2015-02 2015-07 2015-12 2016-05 2016-10 2017-03 2017-08 2018-01 2018-06 2018-11 2019-04 2019-09 2020-02 2020-07 2020-12 : % : % -20 0 20 40 60 2015-02 2015-07 2015-12 2016-05 2016-10 2017-03 2017-08 2018-01 2018-06 2018-11 2019-04 2019-09 2020-02 2020-07 2020-12 : (%) 2020 7 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2016-01 2016-06 2016-11 2017-04 2017-09 2018-02 2018-07 2018-12 2019-05 2019-10 2020-03 2020-082.1 Wind 27 ALD 2020 8812 1: 1.92 4590 12 4256 334 2.1.4 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 21000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2019/1/2 2019/6/2 2019/11/2 2020/4/2 2020/9/2 2021/2/2 28 4 4000 Wind -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2019/01 2019/04 2019/07 2019/10 2020/01 2020/04 2020/07 2020/10 2021/01 2021/042.2 Wind 2017 75% BP EDGER 29 2019 29% 30 25% 25% 26% 26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 ( ) ( ) , 31% , 14% , 7% , 5% , 3% , 2% , 2% , 2% , 30% EDGER , 44% , 18% , 13% , 8% , 3% , 3% , 2% , 2% Wind 2017 BP 2019 98.26 29% 31, 0.3% , 18.7% - , 3.0% - , 77.3% , 0.6% IAI 32 80.3% 2020 6.5 6.5% 80.3% 2020 4.26 5% 2.27 IAI kWh/ 164 14527 51% 49% 0% 0% 0% 9.2 ( ) 440 14900 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 16.6 565 15126 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 6.1 3580 13531 10% 88% 0% 0% 1% 12.8 381 15499 84% 14% 0% 1% 1% 2.7 110 15510 80% 0% 0% 20% 0% 3.8 ( ) 761 15474 86% 5% 0% 3% 6% 1.9 192 14501 32% 67% 0% 1% 0% 9.5 242 15510 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 17.1 6434 14273 25% 64% 0% 10% 1% 9.3 20% 64% 23 10 88% 12.8 2021 2 2.6 80 2.28 2021 247 2020 2021 ) 100 2020.9 2022 15 45 24 2020.1 2020.4 21 35 2020.9 2021 11 24 50 2020.6 2021.6 50 45 2020.12 2021 5 40 45 2019.12 2020.1 45 40 2020.11 2021 8 32 25 2020.7 2021.2 16.6 8.3 25 2019.12 2020.6 20 43 2018.5 2020.12 18 8 50 2018.3 2020.1 5 40 2021Q2 2021 40 35 2020.8 2021.6 35 20 2021 2021 20 30 2018.5 2021.6 20 30 2018.4 2020.12 10 249.6 247.3 SMM SMM 2021 3 334.6 10.2% 3 3968 / 4354 / 91.1% 4500 SMM 2021 247.3 2.2.1 2.211.2 9 11.2 1 1 2019 3593 88% CO2 C02 CO2 kWh/ t t /t tC02/t tC02/ t kWh t 1 13500kWh/t 13500 4.32 11.2 0 4850.55 4.12 1kWh 1 , 2.60 CO2 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.4 13 1.8 2.2 1. 2. 2.2.133 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IAI 0.03 0.23 11.2 2.1% IAI 2019 32.75% 2019 690 19.29% 2.2.1 2.210 2021 GDP 3% 500 1.9% 4% 2021 2021 115 2021 2 10 3.39 2021 2 10 0.01 0.02 ( ) 2021 10 2021 8 2021 0.1 0.3 ( 0.4 0.5 ) 2022 2023 30% 50% 2019 2021 2021 2.2.2 2.22.2 34 2 2 2.2.22.2 3 12 3 31 43 12.4% 7% 2021 100 SMM 11 306 206.6 345.2 345.2 651.2 551.8 2 4 0.010.02 / 133266 / 2 12583 / 1638 / 15% 2 15.5 611.2 2.2.22.2 2020 2021 - 2020 / / 304/140/278 2023 300 / 420 / 300 / - 42 15 2*300MW 9 200 - 4 2020 36.97 2.8% 3.4 14 20 TOP5 102.3 - - + 350 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2.3 Wind 20 80 362.3 2010 2019 1683 1526 5322 4842 13.65 13.69 2020 5779 8.60 37 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY YOY2.3 Mysteel Mysteel 33% 21% 12% 10% 8% 8% 4% 39 25 16 38 33% 21% 12% 10% 8% 8% 4% 4% , 39% , 25% , 16% , 20% 39 Mysteel2.3 10 5 7 40 A8 D5 58 412.3 42 43 2t2.3 CM 2016-2030 2018 119.7 99.3 2030 242.2 253.2 2018 102.34 154.98 2018 386 2030 1070 2018 684 44 2018-2030 102.34 45 2018-2030 154.98 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E - - - 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E - -2.3 2019 4010 96 96 86 67 65 62 472 11.77 2019 1536 455 1081 86 74 65 45 270 25.01 46 2019 CR6 11.77 47 2019 CR4 25.012.3 1 2 3 ; 4 SMM 48 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019-10 2020-02 2020-06 2020-10 2021-02 SMM 49 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2019-10 2020-02 2020-06 2020-10 2021-022.3 1 2 32.3 6 -7 2020 98 9 2021 120 2023 150 - - - - / - - / 2020 183 101 / 107 / 77 19 5.5 100 100 2.1CONTENTS 1 2 3 4 53.1 3C 2019 65 18 3 5 3C 47 41 5 50 2019 +3C , 65% , 18% , 3% , 5% , 9% 51 2019 3C 9 , 47% 3C , 41% , 5% , 8% 3C3.1 9 2020 132.29 9.69 2020 7 9 2020 1 2021 3 8.94 2020 1 6.53pct 52 9 +3C -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 : : : : 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 53 2021 3 8.943.1 2021 1 1 2020 20% 2021 2020 10% Model 3 2020 MINI EV Model Y +3C 54 2020 7 -12 MINI 12.77 55 2020 7 -12 EV 2.88 56 Model Y 2021 13.1 2019 2020 9 2030 ACEA 2020 + EFTA + 139.5 149.73 2021 Q1 + EFTA + 13.7 +3C ACEA EV+PHEV 57 2021Q1 + EFTA + 97 58 2021Q1 + EFTA + 13.7 ACEA EV+PHEV 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 YOY 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q13.1 2021Q1 3.23 2020 AutoData 2020 1460 14.61 5 1700 2021 2021Q1 387 11.30 EVSales 2020 32.4 2019 2016 2021 Q1 3.23 +3C AutoData VDA 59 2021 Q1 11.30 AutoData EV Sales Marklines 60 2021 Q1 3.23 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q1 YOY 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q13.1 2021 1 20 1 2050 100% 2 5,000 100% 3 100% 4 2030 50 2021 3 31 8 2.25 1740 +3C3.1 3C 5G 2021 3 3609 65.90 5G 2750 76.18 IDC 2020 12.92 5.76 IDC 5G 2021 5.5% 2020-2025 3.6 +3C -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 5G YOY 5G -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E YOY IDC 61 2021 3 5G 76.18 62 2021 5.53.1 3C 2018-2020 IDC 2021 5G 40% 2025 69% 5G +3C IDC 120% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY 3.1 2020 36.4 24.66 3C 2021 45.7 25.55 2025 117.1 / 2020 -2025 26.33 +3C 63 2020 24.663.2 2020 38.9 4.5 2018 2020 19.3 10.9 77.63 0 10 20 30 40 50 2017 2018 2019 2020 , 49.61% , 28.02% , 22.37% 64 2020 4.5 65 2020 77.633.2 2019 1 2019 8 Bald Hill Alita 2 2019 10 ALB MRL Wodgina 3 2020 10 Altura 12 Pilbara 1.75 4 Mt Cattlin 2020 40% 600 / Mt Cattlin Pilbara Bald Hill Wodgina 2021 4-5 13 43.2 2021 2020 2022 2021 14 2021 SMM0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 3.2 2021 46.4 19.28 66 2021 73.3 2018 2020 Q3 4 / 2021 4 9 / 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2017-04 2017-10 2018-04 2018-10 2019-04 2019-10 2020-04 2020-10 2021-04 : 99.5% : 2020 10 : Wind 67 2020 10 2018 2020 10 :3.3 3C 2021-2022 15 2021-20223.3 2021 3C Mt Marion Pilbara Manono Olaroz Mariana Sonora 2020 5.43 6.30 5 2021 2025 10 LCE 10 LCE 2020 1 120 8742 9612 2021 2 40.5 7.5 A VZ 4 2.5 1.5 2020 3 2 2020 2020 2.02CONTENTS 1 2 3 4 54 2021 3 2020 6 -7 3C 2021 45.7 25.55 600 / 2021 46.4 19.28 20214 16 Wind Wind 2021 5 115612 A 300 500 buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C51788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5
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