宏观经济专题：地方债供给三论.pdf

1 / 13 2021 08 15 -Delta -2021.8.14 - -2021.8.11 - -2021.8.11 S0790520060002 S0790520070004 S0790120080081 8 8 15 8000 3.47 98% 95% 1.46 42% 2021 4-7 77% 8 9 9 10 80% 8 9 8000 1 5 2.1 MLF2 / 13 1 . 3 2 . 5 3 . 7 4 . 10 5 . 11 1 . 3 2 95% . 4 3 50% . 4 4 . 4 5 . 4 6 . 5 7 . 5 8 2021 . 5 9 . 6 10 . 6 11 2021 . 7 12 . 7 13 . 7 14 7 . 8 15 . 8 16 . 8 17 . 8 18 . 9 19 2021 . 9 20 . 9 21 . 9 22 (8 9 -8 15 ) . 10 23 (8 16 -8 22 ) 900 . 10 24 (8 9 -8 15 ) . 10 25 (8 9 -8 15 )SHIBOR . 10 1 9 . 3 2 . 5 3 . 6 4 . 6 5 . 7 6 8 9 -8 15 . 113 / 13 1 8 21 9 9 1 9 1 21 Wind 8000 3.47 98% 95% 8 15 2 47% 2019-2020 70% 68% 1.46 42% (1) 12 (2) :“ 12 9 9 ” (3) :“ 9 ” (4) 7 2022 (5) 2021 8 26 10 2021 年8 月 21 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( 8 15 ) 2018 2019 2020 20214 / 13 2 95% 3 50% Wind 4 5 Wind Wind 2021 4-7 77% 5,880 2,120 200 17,700 16,976 1,824 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 ( ) 2.16 1.44 0.55 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 ( ) ( 8 15 ) 42.0% 67.7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 ( ) ( 8 15 ) ( ) 10% 32% 54% 76% 98% 120% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 ( ) ( 8 15 ) (5 / 13 2 6 Wind 2 5 2020 13 64% 7 8 2021 Wind 9 9 2021 9 2020 年11 月 “ ” 2021 年1 月 2021 年4 月 (1) (2) 2021 年5 月 2021 年6 月 (1) “ ” (2) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q2 2021 7 ( ) ( ) 78.3% 82.6% 81.6% 85.5% 85.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 2019 2020 2021H 2021 7 49 51 36 64 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 (%) 2020 20216 / 13 318 772 7 210 373 8 9 80 299 3 9 Wind 8 9 9 10 80% 8 9 8000 1 8 12 4500 2.1 4 10 1 Wind 1 1 7 2 14% 7 3 2020 1500 7 / 2019 年4 月 2019 6 9 2020 年7 月 10 9 2020 年11 月 2021 年6 月 2020 2021 年7 月 7 “ ” 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 4 5 6 7 8 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 ( ) 2021 ( ) ( ) 2018 999 139 14% 2018 258 2 1% 2019 980 276 28% 2019 676 175 26% 2019 2169 169 8% 2019 379 26 7% 2019 526 9 2% 2020 1853 439 24% 5987 796 14% 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ( ) 2021 2 2021 1 2021 3 20207 / 13 11 2021 12 Wind Wind 3 MLF 4 5 13 Wind 2 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 2020-12 2021-03 2021-06 2021-09 2021-12 ( ) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) ( 2021 8 15 ) / 2021 年3 月 2021 年4 月 2021 年5 月 2021 年7 月 2021 年8 月 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2018-04 2018-07 2018-10 2019-01 2019-04 2019-07 2019-10 2020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 2021-04 2021-07 ( ) ( ) (8 / 13 14 7 15 Wind Wind 16 17 Wind Wind -3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-21 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 ( ) ( + + ) + 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 + ( ) -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 5 10 15 20 25 30 2011-07 2012-02 2012-09 2013-04 2013-11 2014-06 2015-01 2015-08 2016-03 2016-10 2017-05 2017-12 2018-07 2019-02 2019-09 2020-04 2020-11 2021-06 (%) (%) ( 1) 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 (%) ( 2) 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2016-07 2016-11 2017-03 2017-07 2017-11 2018-03 2018-07 2018-11 2019-03 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 (%) ( ) 10 (9 / 13 18 19 2021 Wind Wind 20 21 Wind Wind 1 2 8 9 8000 3 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 2021 7 2020 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 2.6 1.2 1.7 2.7 1.9 0.5 89.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 50% 50%,60%) 60%,70%) 70%,80%) 80%,90%) 90%,95%) 95%,100% (%) + (2021 5 ) -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 (%) (%) GDP GDP (10 / 13 4 8 9 -8 15 7 500 500 8 16 -8 22 7500 100 7000 MLF 22 (8 9 -8 15 ) 23 (8 16 -8 22 ) 900 Wind Wind R001 R007 R014 R1M 28.5BP 19.8BP 12.2BP 16.3BP 3.8BP 2.20% 2.21% 2.29% 2.45% DR007 21.1BP 2.19% SHIBOR 1 2 32BP 20BP 15BP 2.18% 2.20% 2.16% SHIBOR1 2.3% SHIBOR3 1BP 2.36% 24 (8 9 -8 15 ) 25 (8 9 -8 15 )SHIBOR Wind Wind -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 01-29 02-12 02-26 03-12 03-26 04-09 04-23 05-07 05-21 06-04 06-18 07-02 07-16 07-30 08-13 ( ) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 03-19 04-02 04-16 04-30 05-14 05-28 06-11 06-25 07-09 07-23 08-06 08-20 ( ) 0.5 1.8 3.1 4.4 5.7 7.0 20-08 20-09 20-10 20-11 20-12 21-01 21-02 21-03 21-04 21-05 21-06 21-07 21-08 R001 R007 DR007 (%) 32 20 15 0 -1 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 SHIBORO/N SHIBOR1W SHIBOR2W SHIBOR1M SHIBOR3M 2021-08-13 2021-08-06 (%) (BP11 / 13 8 9 -8 15 21 9 6 8 9 -8 15 8 9 (1) 12 (2) :“ 12 9 9 ” (3) :“ 9 ” (4) 7 2022 (5) 2021 8 26 10 8 9 (1) (2) . (3) LPR . 21 512 / 13 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50013 / 13 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065