资源描述
1 / 23 2021 08 04 - -2021.8.1 -MLCC MLCC - 2021.8.1 - -2021.8.1 S0790520020002 S0790120010015 S0790120080059 2015 2015 2016-2020 5% 80% - 2025 40 2021-2025 / 102.53% 99.04% + 30% 2015 - 2021H1 85% 1,964/3,928.1 10.1%/11% 2021H1 3.65 25.67% 2019H1 12.51% 8.86 27.7% 2021 200.5 275 490 - 2021H2 44.63 2021 8 2 / 693.46/2,325 / 7 1 +20.55%/17.54% 2021 +41.42%/20.09% 2021 5 7 30 / 3.26/15.93 7 23 7.39%/0.28% 2021 2021 42.33 129.21% 2019H1 61.82% 2025 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2020-08 2020-12 2021-04 2021-08 3002 / 23 1 2021 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 2021 7 . 4 2 . 6 2.1 2015 . 6 2.2 2021 . 8 3 2021 . 8 3.1 . 9 3.1.1 . 9 3.1.2 + . 9 3.1.3 2021 . 14 3.2 2021 . 17 4 . 18 4.1 . 18 4.2 . 20 5 . 21 6 . 21 1 . 4 2 2019 2021 . 5 3 2021 7 . 6 4 2021 5 . 6 5 2015 . 7 6 2021 CR5 11.81% . 8 7 30% . 9 8 95% . 10 9 2002 2014 . 10 10 2016-2020 . 11 11 2016 . 11 12 2015-2020 . 12 13 2020 7.0% . 14 14 2015-2020 CAGR 7.76% . 14 15 2021H1 25.67% . 14 16 2021H1 27.7% . 14 17 2015 . 15 18 2020 . 17 19 2018-2020 . 17 20 2021 . 17 21 / . 20 1 2013-2016 . 73 / 23 2 2019 27.20 / . 8 3 2015 2020 . 12 4 2021 490 . 15 5 2021 74.5 . 16 6 2021 200.5 . 16 7 2021-2022 . 19 8 . 21 9 . 214 / 23 1 2021 NaOH 30% 32% 45% 50% 73% 95% 96% 99% 99.5% 1.1 2007 74 30 / 1 2020 2020 1.2 2021 7 2008 4 Wind 15 / 23 2009 -2010 2008 2008 7 3,900 / 2010 8 1,880 / 3,300 / 1,450 2 2010 -2012 2009 2011 2010 10 2,000 / 2012 7 3,750 / 1,551 / 3,240 / 3 2012 -2016 2012 2015 2 2,050 / 1,700 / 4 2016 -2018 2015 2016 2017 11 5,550 / 5,111 / 2019 2021 2 2019 2021 Wind 2021 7 2021 7 2021 7 32% 624.85 / 6 66.47 / 11.90% 50% 1,129.20 / 6 4.11 / 11.99% 7 1,700-1,750 / 1,900-2,000 / 2,300 / 8 2 / 693.46/2,325 / 7 1 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2008/2 2008/8 2009/2 2009/8 2010/2 2010/8 2011/2 2011/8 2012/2 2012/8 2013/2 2013/8 2014/2 2014/8 2015/2 2015/8 2016/2 2016/8 2017/2 2017/8 2018/2 2018/8 2019/2 2019/8 2020/2 2020/8 2021/2 2021/8 / -1.508 (99%)6 / 23 20.55%/17.54% 2021 41.42%/20.09% 2021 5 2021 7 30 3.26 7 23 7.39% 15.93 7 23 0.28% 2021 3 2021 7 4 2021 5 2 2003 PVC 2020 62% 44% 2.1 2015 20 1 2007 2007 2000-2007 CAGR 15.4% 80% 2007 2,000 2,181 20.50% 1,759.3 16.43% 2 2008-2013 2008 2008-2013 CAGR 9.72% 70% 2013 3,850 3.05% 2,854 5.74% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 / / 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2020/1 2020/3 2020/5 2020/7 2020/9 2020/11 2021/1 2021/3 2021/5 2021/77 / 23 3 2014-2016 2015 30 2015 3,873 0.95% 3,028 4.78% 1 2013-2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 499.2 444.5 361 213 169 202.5 183.5 167 165.5 108.2 121 247 153.5 205.5 131 26.5 10 44 391 323.5 114 59.5 -36.5 71.5 157 157 121.5 2020 4 2016 2016 7 23 2019 10 30 2019 2016- 2020 5% 80% 2020 4,470 2.05% 3,673.9 6.06% 82.2% 5 2015 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY YOY8 / 23 2.2 2021 2021 CR5 11.81% 2019 4,380.1 4,366.6 99.69% 13.5 27.20 2018 0.75 2020 158 2019 161 3 2 2019 27.20 / 100 4 481 10.98% 50-100 16 1016 23.20% 30-50 37 1351.5 30.86% 10-30 83 1410.5 32.20% 10 21 121 2.76% 161 4380 100.00% 27.20 2020 6 2021 CR5 11.81% 3 2021 50% 32% 2.91% 2.53% 2.35% 2.24% 1.79% 88.199 / 23 3.1 3.1.1 30% Al 2O 3 2020 31% 2015-2020 27%-34% 70% 7 30% 3.1.2 + - - 2020 1.12 10.85% AMR 95% 95% 2020 7,313.20 3,708 55.02% 56.71% 7,481 3,835 27% 30% 33% 34% 33% 31% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202010 / 23 54.96% 61.00% 8 95% 2002 2014 2002 1949-2002 2002 1 2002-2008 CAGR 32.83% CAGR 26.82% 2008 1,317.6 2,278.81 2 2009-2014 2008 CAGR 13.43% 14.93% 2009 9 2002 2014 Wind 5% 95% 500kg + 150kg + 250kg 1t + 2.3t (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 YOY % YOY 11 / 23 2015 2015 2013 41 2016 2017 2017 2 20 2017 2+26 30% 4 2017656 6 517 372 2016-2020 CAGR 2.42% 85%-95% 2016 7,235 2020 8,784 CAGR 4.97% 10 2016-2020 11 2016 Wind -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY % YOY % 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 : : 12 / 23 12 2015-2020 Wind 3 2015 2020 2015 12 2017 4 6 517 372 2018 1 2018 3 ( ) 2018 8 PH 2018 9 2018-2019 2+26 30% 2018 12 80% (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 YOY % YOY 13 / 23 380 3 2019 8 2019 2019 11 2019 160kA 2020 3 GB25327 1 13,500 / 32.4% ; 16.2% 13.5% 10% 2008 2020 14.14 7.0% 2021H1 7.22 14.97% 2019H1 17.16% 2015 2020 22.44 2015 15.45 7.76% 2021H1 3.65 25.67% 2019H1 12.51% 8.86 27.7% 2021H1 1,964 3,928.1 10.1% 1114 / 23 13 2020 7.0% 14 2015-2020 CAGR 7.76% 15 2021H1 25.67% 16 2021H1 27.7% 7050 7B50 2017 2018 3.1.3 2021 2015 - 2000-2014 - 11.49% 2015 (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008/6 2008/12 2009/6 2009/12 2010/6 2010/12 2011/6 2011/12 2012/6 2012/12 2013/6 2013/12 2014/6 2014/12 2015/6 2015/12 2016/6 2016/12 2017/6 2017/12 2018/6 2018/12 2019/6 2019/12 2020/6 2020/12 2021/6 : % (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 2008/6 2008/12 2009/6 2009/12 2010/6 2010/12 2011/6 2011/12 2012/6 2012/12 2013/6 2013/12 2014/6 2014/12 2015/6 2015/12 2016/6 2016/12 2017/6 2017/12 2018/6 2018/12 2019/6 2019/12 2020/6 2020/12 % (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 2008/6 2008/12 2009/6 2009/12 2010/6 2010/12 2011/6 2011/12 2012/6 2012/12 2013/6 2013/12 2014/6 2014/12 2015/6 2015/12 2016/6 2016/12 2017/6 2017/12 2018/6 2018/12 2019/6 2019/12 2020/6 2020/12 2021/6 % (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008/6 2008/12 2009/6 2009/12 2010/6 2010/12 2011/6 2011/12 2012/6 2012/12 2013/6 2013/12 2014/6 2014/12 2015/6 2015/12 2016/6 2016/12 2017/6 2017/12 2018/6 2018/12 2019/6 2019/12 2020/6 2020/12 2021/6 15 / 23 2015-2020 4.55% 3,000-3,500 2020 3,562.8 6.61% 17 2015 2021 490 62.48 2021 2021H1 84.7% 2021 7 30 84.6% 2021 490 1 150 85% 62.48 2021 140 350 44.63 4 2021 490 80 2021 12 1 100 2021 12 1 170 2021 9 1 10 2021 6 1 30 2021 6 1 100 2021 6 1 2021 E 490 2021 7 29 36.3 2021 38.2 2021 74.5 2021 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YOY16 / 23 58.5 2021 142 2021 200.5 275 5 2021 74.5 2021 6 2021 4 - 3 2021 4 - 12 2021 5 12 7.5 2021 5 - 1.8 2021 7 8.2 6 2021 7 18 36.3 - 38.2 6 2021 200.5 A 2021 B 2021 A+B 22 12 65 25 37 10 10 - - 10 17.5 7.5 - 10 17.5 39 24 - 15 39 25 - - 25 25 30 - - 30 30 40 - - - - 5 5 22 22 27 - - 5 5 5 - - 10 10 10 - - 42.5 - - 188.5 58.5 144.5 142 200.517 / 23 18 2020 3.2 2021 2000 2004 10 2006 100 133.1 2007-2016 150-200 2018-2020 2020 115.46 1.28% 2021 2021H1 42.33 129.21% 2019H1 61.82% 6 13.63 455.87% 131.15% 2021 6 -7 2021H1 22.6 2020H1 19 2018-2020 20 2021 70 75 80 85 90 2020/1 2020/4 2020/7 2020/10 2021/1 2021/4 2021/7 % % 0 5 10 15 0 50 100 150 200 250 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 2021/1 2021/2 2021/3 2021/4 2021/5 2021/618 / 23 4 2030 2060 - 2060 2030 2030-2050 2050-2060 4.1 2015 5% 2021 3 9 2021 PVC 2021/2022 130/48 2020 4,470 2021/2022 4,600/4,648 2.91%/1.0419 / 23 7 2021-2022 30 2021 12 31 10 2021 8 31 15 2021 9 16 15 2021 7 31 30 2021 9 1 30 2021 9 1 2021 E 130 18 2022 6 30 30 2022 9 1 2022 E 48 - 2021 5 31 2021 490 2020 8,784 2021 9,274 5.58% 2021-2025 / 1 2023-2025 CAGR 2% 2015-2020 CAGR=2.91% 2022- 2025 CAGR 3% 2015-2020 CAGR=5.74% 2 2016-2018 2021 85% 2021-2025 83%/83%/85%/85%/85% 2021-2025 85% 3 2021-2025 2015-2020 CAGR 2015 2,082 2020 2,458 CAGR 3.38% 1 150 2021-2025 3,818.00/3,857.84/4,029.82/4,110.41/4,192.62 3,723.81/3,845.12/3,970.40/4,099.78/4,233.38 2025 40.76 / 102.53% 99.0420 / 23 21 / Wind 4.2 2020 61 20 20 4 / 1400kWh 655kWh 30% 32% 50% 2020 2020 53 80% 2021 2020 52.80 113 30 87.88 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 102% 103% 104% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E /21 / 23 132 47 72 8 2021/8/4 100 / / / 600409.SH 12.08 249.37 53 0.40 2125.36 601678.SH 8.04 156.81 61 0.46 3890.06 600309.SH 119.17 3741.64 87.88 0.66 234.87 002092.SZ 11.11 238.47 132 0.99 5535.29 600075.SH 7.66 125.94 47 0.35 3731.94 000830.SZ 19.9 378.96 40 0.30 1055.52 600618.SH 9.4 108.7 72 0.54 6623.74 Wind 5 9 2021/8/4 / % PE 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 600409.SH 12.08 5.00 322.64 0.50 9.46 34.78 8.23 8.19 7.48 601678.SH 8.04 15.65 186.39 21.86 34.66 27.92 9.75 8.00 5.94 600309.SH 119.17 -0.87 141.52 9.01 10.05 37.26 15.43 14.15 12.86 002092.SZ 11.11 -61.89 1859.61 9.26 17.23 90.44 8.34 7.63 6.51 600075.SH 7.66 63.01 68.13 14.60 12.92 9.05 8.45 7.37 6.53 000830.SZ 19.90 -52.22 427.61 6.03 10.95 22.70 8.71 8.21 7.40 600618.SH 9.40 -25.19 68.12 10.98 13.93 10.66 9.60 Wind Wind 622 / 23 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50023 / 23 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
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