智能汽车系列五：芯片篇.pdf

1 / 32 2021 08 06 - -2021.6.15 - AR- HUD -2021.6.10 - SOA - 2021.5.4 S0790519100001 S0790120070082 McKinsey 2030 L3 130 CPU/GPU DRAM/FLASH ISP/CIS PHY IGBT/MOSFET CPU AI SoC 2025/2030 AI SoC 55.2/104.6 AI CIS IC Insights 2025 51 ISP CIS VCSEL SPAD L2/L3 L4/L5 / V2X PHY2 / 32 1 . 4 2 “ ” “ ” . 6 2.1 “ ” . 6 2.1.1 CPU SoC “ ” . 6 2.1.2 AI SoC . 11 2.2 “ ” . 12 2.2.1 CIS . 13 2.2.2 ISP ISP . 15 2.2.3 VCSEL SPAD . 16 2.3 . 19 2.3.1 V2X 5G . 19 2.3.2 . 22 2.4 IC . 24 3 . 26 3.1 . 26 3.2 . 27 3.2.1 . 27 3.2.2 . 27 3.2.3 . 28 3.2.4 . 28 3.2.5 . 29 4 . 30 1 2030 290 . 4 2 . 4 3 2030 40% . 5 4 . 6 5 . 6 6 820A CPU+GPU+DSP+LTE+ISP . 8 7 NVIDIA Xavier CPU+GPU+ASIC . 9 8 MCU 32 2025 73.5 . 11 9 MCU . 11 10 CIS ISP . 13 11 BOM CIS 2020 . 14 12 2019 CIS 10% . 14 13 2024 CIS 14.1% . 14 14 2020 CIS . 15 15 2019 CIS 90% . 15 16 ISP . 15 17 FSD ISP . 15 18 ISP 10% . 16 19 . 17 20 . 17 21 . 17 22 . 19 23 2020Q1 . 20 24 2020Q4 . 20 25 2020H1 90% . 21 26 . 22 27 SOA / . 223 / 32 28 . 24 29 DRAM NAND FLASH . 25 30 BMS . 26 31 . 26 32 8% 12% . 26 33 2021-2025 CAGR 17% . 26 1 ASIC . 7 2 SoC . 8 3 AI L2-L5 . 9 4 . 11 5 AI SoC 2030 / 104.6/303.4 . 12 6 8 . 13 7 VCSEL Lumentum . 18 8 SPAD . 18 9 4G 5G . 20 10 . 21 11 . 23 12 . 304 / 32 1 + 1886 McKinsey 2025 180 2030 290 McKinsey L3 2025 27.8% 50 2030 44.8% 130 Gartner 2019 750 740 475 2019 27% / 30/80 2030 40% / 110/170 2019-2030 13.8% 7.8% 1 2030 290 2 McKinsey Gartner 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2019 2025E 2030E （10亿美元） L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 0 200 400 600 800 各类型汽 车半导 体成本 对比（ 美元 ，2019 年数据）5 / 32 3 2030 40% IC IC HIS 2025 682 IC 170 110 IC 101 IC 87 85 66 63 SoC SoC / IC MCU CPU FPGA ASIC GPU AI DRAM SRAM FLASH CIS CMOS MEMS VCSEL SPAD AC/DC LED IGBT MOSFET 8 12 17 3 6 11 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2019 2025E 2030E 2019-2030 CAGR 为13.8% 2019-2030 CAGR 为7.8% CAGR 96 / 32 4 IHS 5 2 2.1 2.1.1 CPU SoC CPU AI SoC ECU CPU E/E / DCU ECU CPU CPU GPU FPGA ASIC / SoC AI SoC CPU GPU CNN FPGA RNN/LSTM/ ASIC 170 110 101 87 85 66 63 0 200 400 600 800 IC IC IC7 / 32 1 ASIC CPU GPU FPGA ASIC AI AMD IBM NVIDIA AMD CSDN 1 CPU+ SoC 820A 820A 14 hypervisor QNX 3 Android 18 3 1 CPU 2.1GHz 64 Qualcomm Kryo CPU 2 GPU Adreno530 GPU 4K 3 DSP Qualcomm Hexagon 680 DSP CPU 8 4 LTE (SDK) Qualcomm (NPE) 7nm 5nm 2021 80 990A 2 S 990A 12.3 20.3 4K 8 HUD 3.5TOPS SA8155P 3TOPS 2 UNI-T8 / 32 6 820A CPU+GPU+DSP+LTE+ISP 2 SoC SoC nm CPU DMIPS GPU GFLOPS ( ) R-car H3 2015 16 40K 288 3 R-car M3 2015 28 28K 76 3 Tegra Parker 2013 16 - - 3 2020S 602A 2014 28 - - 3 820A 2016 14 45.2K 588 - SA8155P 2020 7 105K 1142 4 A3950 2015 14 48.4K 216 Model3 WEY VV6 HS5 F7 NXP Auto V8 2017 14 79.2K 803 3 - Auto V9 2018 8 111K 1205 6 ID.4 MIB3 i.mx 8QM 28 28.6K 128 RX8 HS MT2712 28 22K 133 - TI Jacinto 6 28 22K 166.4 - 980A 2018 8 75K 641 3 - 990A 2021 7 - - 4 S 2 2019 28 - - 5 UNI-T R-car H3 2015 16 40K 288 3 2 CPU+GPU+NPU SoC Xavier SoC AI 1 CPU ARM 8 Carmel CPU 2 GPU NVIDIA Volta 20W 1.3TFLOPS Tensor 20TOPS 30W 30TOPS 3 ASIC AI9 / 32 DLA Deep Learning Accelerator PV A Programmable Vision Accelerator ASIC CPU perf/watt Mobileye Mobileye 2019 5400 ADAS 70% 2019 Autopilot HW1.0 Mobileye EyeQ3 MDC S OEM ONE Mobileye 3 OEM OEM 7 NVIDIA Xavier CPU+GPU+ASIC 3 AI L2-L5 SoC SOP SAE nm SoC TOPS W TOPS/W Parker 2018 L2-L3 16 1 15 0.067 Xavier 2020 L2-L3 12 30 30 1 P7&P5 L7 Orin 2022E L2-L5 7 254 45 5.6 ET7 X01 X01 L7 R ES33 Atlan 2024E L4-L5 5 1000 - - Mobileye Intel EyeQ3 2014 L2 40 1 2.5 0.4 EyeQ4 2018 L3 28 1.1-2.2 4.5-6.5 0.24-0.3310 / 32 EyeQ5 2021 L4-L5 7 12-24 17-34 0.7- EyeQ6 2024E L4-L5 5 42-67 17-37 1.8-2.5 - FSD 2019 L3 14 72 72 1 Ride 2023E L5 5 26 10 2.6 R-CAR V3U 2023 L2 12 60 8-10 6-7.5 - TI J7/TDA4x 8 5-20 0.4-1.6 昇 310 2018 L2 12 16 8 2 昇 610 2022E L3-L4 - 160 53 3 2 2019 L2 28 4 2 2 3 2020 L2-L3 16 5 2.5 2 ONE 5 2021E L3 7 96 20 4.8 - 5P 2022E L4 7 128 25 5.1 - 6 2023E L5 7 512+ - - A500 2020 L2 28 5.8 1.4 4 A1000 2021 L3 16 40-70 8 5-9 - 3 8 32 MCU BCM PEPS MCU MCU 8 16 32 8 16-50MHz 32 MCU 8 MCU 16 MCU 32 MCU 16 MCU HIS 2025 MCU 73.5 32 MCU 76.6% HIS MCU 14% 11% 10% 2020 MCU MCU MCU11 / 32 8 MCU 32 2025 73.5 9 MCU IHS IHS 2.1.2 AI SoC Autopoilt + OTA 2021 R ES33 L7 001 500-1000TOPS 4 (TOPS) (nm) SAE ( ) ET7 Orin 1016 7 L3 44.80 L7 Orin 1000+ 7 L2 R ES33 Orin 500-1000 7 S 昇 310 352 - L2-L4 38.89 ( HI ) Tesla Model3 FSD 144 14 L2 25.09 ModelY FSD 144 14 L2 34.79 ModelS FSD 144 14 L2 79.99 001 Mobileye EyeQ5 48 7 L2 26.6 P7 Xavier 508 7 L3 22.99 P5 Xavier 30 12 L4 2025/2030 AI SoC 55.2/104.6 2021 2021 4% 7.5% 2025 3000 2025/2030 2539/2803 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 8bit 16bit 32bit , 14% , 11% , 10% , 8% , 7% , 6% , 4% , 3% , 3712 / 32 2030 95% L2 2025 L0/L1/L2/L3/L4 15%/33%/46%/2%/1% 2030 12%/21%/57%/7%/3% L4 2030 L0/L1/L2 L2+ /L3/L4 0%/15%/50%/23%/12% AI SoC AI SoC L0/L1/L2/L3/L4 1/10+/100+/500+/1000+TOPS 3/3-10/10-100/100-500/ 500TOPS 50/14/8/3/1.6 2025 L0/L1/L2/L3/L4 AI SoC 49.3/69.0/190.0/685.9/1487.9 2030 46.7/65.4/180.1/598.3/1131.7 2025 AI SoC 55.2 2030 104.6 2016-2020 / 2.8- 3.1 2.9 2025 AI SoC 160.1 2030 303.4 5 AI SoC 2030 / 104.6/303.4 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2170 2257 2347 2441 2539 2589 2641 2694 2748 2803 L0 55% 48% 30% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0% 0% L1 25% 27% 30% 32% 33% 30% 27% 25% 20% 15% L2 20% 25% 35% 37% 39% 40% 45% 47% 49% 50% L3 0% 0% 3% 8% 10% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% L4/L5 0% 0% 2% 3% 3% 5% 6% 9% 10% 12% AI SoC USD L0 50.0 49.8 49.6 49.5 49.3 48.8 48.3 47.7 47.2 46.7 L1 70.0 69.8 69.5 69.3 69.0 68.3 67.6 66.8 66.1 65.4 L2 160.0 167.0 174.4 182.0 190.0 188.0 186.0 184.0 182.1 180.1 L3 600.0 620.4 641.5 663.3 685.9 664.6 644.0 624.0 611.0 598.3 L4/L5 1600.0 1579.2 1558.7 1538.4 1487.9 1411.5 1338.9 1270.1 1204.8 1131.7 16.7 19.1 34.5 48.5 55.2 70.1 77.7 90.5 96.5 104.6 48.5 55.3 100.2 140.6 160.1 203.4 225.3 262.6 279.9 303.4 2.2 4 8 CMOS CIS ISP CIS bayer pattern ISP YUV/RGB I/O GGAI 201813 / 32 2025 ADAS 330 7500 1500 1.7 180 4600 10 CIS ISP 6 8 SAE L2+ 3 4 1 1 9 25.09 ET7 L3 2 4 1 1 8 36-53 X01 L3 3 8 1 1 13 40 P5 L2+ 3 8 1 1 13 15-20 S L2-L4 4 8 1 1 14 38.89 HI 001 L2+ 3 8 1 2 14 26.6 L7 L3 2 8 1 1 12 40.88 L2+ 3 4 1 1 9 17.98 SAE 2.2.1 CIS CIS CIS CMOS CIS 50% 5 CIS Frost&Sullivan CIS 2019 10% 2024 14.1% IC Insights 2021-2025 CIS 33.8% 2025 5114 / 32 11 BOM CIS 2020 12 2019 CIS 10% 13 2024 CIS 14.1% Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan CIS CIS CIS Frost&Sullivan 2020 CIS 39.10% 23.8% 11.3% 4.70% SK 4.40% CIS CIS CIS 1 HDR CIS HDR 120dB HDR HDR 2 CIS 40 105 3 CIS 4 LED LED CIS CIS LED 90Hz 11 CIS CIS Couetpoint 2019 CIS 60% 29% 3% 50% 25% 14% 5% 6% CIS , 73% , 10% , 8.70% , 4.10% , 1.30% , 2.90% , 68.80% , 14.10% , 8% , 3.60% , 1.70% , 3.8015 / 32 14 2020 CIS 15 2019 CIS 90% Frost&Sullivan Courtpoint 2.2.2 ISP ISP ISP Image Signal Processor CIS Raw ISP 1 ISP ISP ISP 2 ISP ISP ISP SLAM 16 ISP 17 FSD ISP CSDN ISP Yole 2024 ISP 186 2018-2024 CAGR 14% ISP 1 ISP , 39.10% , 23.80% , 11.30% , 4.70% SK , 4.40% , 16.70% SK , 60% , 29% , 3% , 816 / 32 ISP 10% ISP ISP 2 3 ISP 18 ISP 10% ISP ISP ISP 1 CIS CIS CIS CIS ISP 2 T21 T20 ISP 14 2.37 ISP 2018 ISP 3 ISP ISP 2.2.3 VCSEL SPAD CMOS 1 (EEL) (VCSEL) EEL VCSEL17 / 32 V1.5 EEL VCSEL 2 PD APD SiPM SPAD APD SiPM SPAD CMOS 3D 2D 3 FPGA SoC SoC Mobileye SoC V2.0 SoC 19 Ouster 20 21 VCSEL SPAD Tier1 VCSEL SPAD VCSEL IPO VCSEL VCSEL ToF18 / 32 2020 AEC-Q102 ISTF16949 VCSEL Fabless 2012 2018 VCSEL 6 VCSEL 13.48 3.05 VCSEL SPAD SPAD 2019 2020 CES Ouster Tier1 7 VCSEL Lumentum VCSEL VCSEL VCSEL 850 nm 940 nm VCSEL IPO VCSEL HCG 100 DBR VCSEL B B+ VCSEL Lumentum VCSEL VCSEL VCSELs OptiGOT VCSEL Ouster VCSEL Tier1 VCSEL AMS 128 80 VCSEL 10240 250 12 60 AMS IBEO VCSEL AMS Sense Photonics VCSEL TriLumina VCSEL Lumentum VCSEL 8 SPAD SPAD SPAD SPAD SPAD Pandion 400*100 dToF direct ToF 5 2018 SensL SiPM SPAD IBEO SPAD : 12,000 CMOS Tier1 Ouster SPAD ASIC Tier1 LiDAR dToF SPAD19 / 32 2.3 2.3.1 V2X 5G + - - - 1 2 3 L3 L3 L4 22 4G/5G/WiFi/ 1 GPS Counterpoint 2020 36.1% 2020 47.20% 1.5 MDM 9150 R14 4G MDM9250 R15 TCU MDM925020 / 32 5G SA2150P R16 4G 5G NR SA2150P V2X 9 4G 5G MDM 9150 4G 5G MDM 9150 MDM9250 SA2150P 14nm 10nm 7nm C-V2X V2V V2P V2I 3GPP R-14 V2V V2P V2I 3GPP R-14 V2V V2P V2I 3GPP R-14 5G - - TDD SA NSA FDD I S PCIe I C GPIO SDIO SPI UART USB 2.0 USB 3.0 USB 3.1 I S PCIe I C GPIO SDIO SPI UART USB 2.0 USB 3.1 I S PCIe I C GPIO SDIO SPI UART USB 2.0 Qualcomm (RFFE) RFFE 5G 5G CPU ARM Cortex A7 ARM Cortex A7 ARM Cortex A7 23 2020Q1 24 2020Q4 Counterpoint Counterpoint 2 90% 2020 90% 35.99% 17.53% Sierra Wireless 17.04% 36.10% 21.70% 11.60% 11.20% 10.50% 8.90% 47.20% 13.20% 12.80% 8.50% 6.40% 11.9021 / 32 25 2020H1 90% 3 5G 2020 47.42% 2025 90% 2025 2 2020-2025 15% 4G 5G C-V2X 2021 5G 10 ISSI EPCOS A V AGO RFMD SKYWORKS TI ADI PN DIODES ROHM MOSFET ESD EPSON NDK KYOCERA TXC Rakon TDK PCB PCB TYCO MOLEX 35.99% 17.53% Sierra Wireless 17.04% 10.89% LG 8.44% 8.21% 35.99% 17.53% 17.04% 10.89% 8.44% 8.21% 1.82% 0.17% Sierra Wireless LG U-Blox22 / 32 2.3.2 SOA IT SOME/IP SD 26 BOSCH 27 SOA /23 / 32 11 CAN-C CAN CAN-B CAN CAN-FD LIN MOST FlexRay ADAS ABS/ESP ADAS CAN ADAS 10k-1Mbit/s 124kbit/s 8Mbps 20kbit/s 22.5Mbit/s 10-20Mbit/s 10- 100Gbit/s 3Mbit/s (max) 10 24 - 16 64 2048 8 256 ISO 11898 ISO 11519-2 ISO 16835 LIN- Konsortium MOST Cooperation FlexRay- Konsortium IEEE 802.3 Bluetooth SIG SAE C B C A Drive-By- Wire - CAN CAN 10Mbps 10Mbps 100M 1000M CAN PHY MAC PHY MAC PHY PHY OEM PHY24 / 32 PHY 89811 PHY RGMII SOC 8155 LVDS MAX96751 LVDS LVDS 2.5G/5G/10G PHY L4 100 100 PHY ADC/DAC PLL DSP NXP Marvell Microchip PHY 2020 100Base-T1 PHY PHY 1000Base-T1 PHY 2022 28 Tensorflow 2.4 IC IC DRAM NAND FLASH DRAM SRAM NAND FLASH NOR FLASH DRAM NAND FLASH Yole 2019 DRAM/NAND Flash 55%/4225 / 32 1 SRAM DRAM SRAM CPU DRAM 53% MRAM SRAM DDR DRAM DDR DRR2/DDR3/DDR4 DDR5 LPDDR DDR 2 NAND NOR NOR FLASH 116MB NAND NOR 42% 16nm 2D NAND 2D NAND 15/16nm 3D 3D NAND 29 DRAM NAND FLASH AI L2/L3 100GB/s DRAM NAND FLASH 8GB 25GB L4/L5 L4/L5 300GB/s-1TB/s DRAM NAND FLASH 30GB 200GB BMS26 / 32 30 BMS 31 China Flash Market IHS 2019 8% 2025 12% 81.5 2021- 2025 17% 2017 20 L4/L5 300-500 32 8% 12% 33 2021-2025 CAGR 17% HIS HIS 3 3.1 1 AI 2 CIS ISP27 / 32 3 4 ISSI 3.2 3.2.1 ISSI + + ISSI AI DRAM/SRAM/FLASH DRAM/SRAM/FLASH LPDDR4 DDR5 LED Driver G.vn ISP + + 3.2.2 MeiGLink 2012 4G LTE CAT1 5G eMBB 5G NR Sub-6GHz 5G SRM825W 5G 5G SoC QCM6490 5G SRM930 Android11 WIFI 6E 10Tops28 / 32 2021 5G SRM930 Adreno 635 GPU 3.2.3 1 72.8% ADAS T-Box GW 2020 34.24/83.66 2 25.63% 3 1.57% - MaaS 2019-2020 104%/377% Mobileye Mobileye Mobileye 2020 Mobileye 30% 2025 55% Mobileye Mobileye 2020 ASP 2018-2020 ASP 1011/1175/1310 ASP 207/283/294 3.2.4 VCSEL VCSEL VCSEL IDM Lumentum II-VI AMS 6 VCSEL VCSEL29 / 32 TOF VCSEL D-TOF VCSEL 3D VCSEL VCSEL 5 VCSEL 6 510 2020 506.5 4.98% IPO 13.48 3.05 VCSEL 3.2.5 2017 1 905nmEEL flash AL01 VCSEL 300W 2 2017 LIMO IATF16949 VDA6.3 3 2020 4 Velodyne LiDAR Luminar Argo AI L3 VCSEL DMS dToF VCSEL + diffuser Flash 300W AX01 VCSEL DMS 2023 Tier 1 Tier1 2020 9 5000 200 IPO 10.1 1.630 / 32 12 2021/08/06 EPS( / ) PE 2020 2021E 2022E 2020 2021E 2022E 300223.SZ 161.48 757.3 0.16 1.75 2.43 1009.3 92.3 66.5 002881.SZ 31.34 57.8 0.15 0.59 0.89 208.9 53.1 35.2 Wind Wind 2021 8 6 431 / 32 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50032 / 32 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065