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KPMG International home.kpmg/avri Assessing the preparedness of 30 countries and jurisdictions in the race for autonomous vehicles 2020 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index The Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index (AVRI) is a tool to help measure the level of preparedness for autonomous vehicles across 30 countries and jurisdictions. It is a composite index that combines 28 individual measures from a range of sources into a single score. More information on the results, methodology and sources used can be found in the Appendix. The intended core audience for the AVRI is public sector organizations with responsibility for transport and infrastructure. It should also be of interest to other public and private sector organizations that are involved with, or make use of, road transport. This report uses the term autonomous vehicles, abbreviated to AVs, to refer to the technology used both within vehicles and externally, such as digital networks and road infrastructure. It also uses AVs to refer to vehicles that can do everything a traditional vehicle does without human intervention, sometimes described as level five automation, where vehicles are fully self-driving and the human driver becomes a passenger. The terms AV and driverless car are used interchangeably, although this report also covers autonomous buses and trucks. The following abbreviations are also used in the text: AI for artificial intelligence, EV for electric vehicle(s), lidar for light detection and ranging technologies and IoT for Internet of Things. US dollar equivalents for local currencies are as of early June 2020. Quick reader guide 2020 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and its a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Rank 2020 2019 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 2 1 3 4 6 5 13 9 7 n/a 10 12 n/a 8 15 14 11 16 17 20 n/a 18 19 n/a 21 22 n/a 23 24 25 2020 score 25.45 25.22 24.25 23.99 23.58 23.17 22.71 22.23 21.36 21.21 20.88 20.68 19.97 19.88 19.70 19.40 19.19 19.16 18.59 16.42 16.23 16.15 13.99 12.70 11.66 11.45 11.28 7.42 6.95 5.49 Country or jurisdiction Singapore The Netherlands Norway United States Finland Sweden South Korea United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Denmark Japan Canada Taiwan Germany Australia Israel New Zealand Austria France China Belgium Spain Czech Republic Italy Hungary Russia Chile Mexico India Brazil Index results 2020 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and its a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Con t en t s Richard Threlfall on how the AVRI has evolved and what AV adoption will mean for society. Foreword 03 Overview of the top five ranked countries and jurisdictions, methodology updates, and other key highlights. Executive summary Overcoming the challenges of safety, privacy, digital infrastructure, transport systems and cross-border travel. Introduction: Enabling the AV revolution Profiles of all 30 countries and jurisdictions, summarizing results, key initiatives by governments and businesses, and drawing on the insights of KPMGs national AV experts. National profiles Key takeaways and actionable insights for governments and policy makers. The road to ubiquity Key events in the development of AVs over 2019 and 2020 to date. Milestones A look at five hyperconnected cities and what they are doing to pave a future for AVs. Cities to watch Detail on the data and methodology used to build the AVRI. Appendix: Results and methodology 49 48 08 42 07 11 04 2020 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and its a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Appendix: Results and methodology ContactsMilestones The road to ubiquity Foreword Introduction Executive Summary National profiles Cities to watch 2020 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index | 3 Foreword When we first published the Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index in 2018, there was widespread excitement around the technology, reflected in frequent media coverage. This has since reduced significantly and the casual observer could conclude that perhaps it was all hype after all, and that the autonomous revolution remains decades away. The reality however is that AV technology is entering a period of development maturity, during which the complex challenges of implementation are being addressed. The transformational potential of AV technology remains immense. According to the data gathered for the third AVRI and insights from specialists within KPMGs network of national firms, significant progress has been made on the extensive work needed to allow AVs to operate safely and effectively in our societies, including overhauling regulations and running large-scale tests. We are also seeing AVs move into use around the world in public transport and in closed-site environments such as mining and logistics. And national and local governments are finding distinctive ways to introduce them. This edition of the AVRI adds five new countries and jurisdictions: Belgium, Chile, Denmark, Italy and Taiwan. It lightly refreshes the measures used to assess each country and jurisdiction to account for our increased understanding of some of the key enablers of AVs, such as telecommunications. The indicators remain organized by the same four pillars as the first two reports policy and legislation, technology and innovation, infrastructure and consumer acceptance. As some countries and jurisdictions devolve responsibility for transport to local authorities, this years report also features coverage of five notable cities Beijing, Detroit, Helsinki, Pittsburgh and Seoul which are undertaking ground-breaking work at a municipal level. The third AVRI sees Singapore swap places with the Netherlands to claim the top position in the index. Since the start of 2019 the city-state has taken a number of significant steps to encourage the testing, development and adoption of AVs, such as opening a tenth of its roads for testing. Like several other highly-ranked countries, Singapore has embedded AVs into wider goals, including greater use of public transport, wider use of EVs and economic development from research-focused jobs. As in previous editions, many national scores are very close and many countries and jurisdictions have opportunities to make progress. Demonstrating this, of the 25 in the 2019 index, 17 have increased their score. By providing assessments of strengths, challenges and recommendations, this report aims to provide constructive insights that can help governments learn from each other and improve. The coronavirus pandemic has led to several AV trials being suspended, but it is possible to imagine the contribution this technology could make if it were further developed, from maintaining delivery networks to providing more flexible, less crowded public transport such as through the use of smaller, on-demand minibuses. I continue to see AVs as enabling an impending revolution that will strengthen our societies and economies, while making the worlds roads safer and more accessible to everyone. Richard Threlfall Global Head of Infrastructure KPMG International RThrelfall_KPMG 2020 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Appendix: Results and methodology ContactsMilestones The road to ubiquity Foreword Introduction Executive Summary National profiles Cities to watch 2020 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index | 4 This third edition of the Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index shows that over the last year countries and jurisdictions have been grappling with the key policy and investment decisions needed in order to enable the AV revolution. Some differences have emerged in proposed approaches, but countries and jurisdictions are also learning from each other and engaging with the automotive companies and technology businesses that are developing the technology, as KPMG recommended in the first index. Key enablers include safety, privacy, digital infrastructure, impact on transport systems and cross-border travel. We consider each in turn. Safety The World Health Organization estimates that there are 1.35 million road deaths and 50 million injuries annually. With human error responsible in around 95 percent of cases, AVs have the potential to reduce these casualties dramatically. At a global ministerial conference on road safety held in Stockholm in February 2020, participants recognized that “advanced vehicle safety technologies are among the most effective of all automotive safety devices” and called for countries to ensure that all vehicles sold by 2030 include safety performance technology. 1 Although AVs are much safer than human drivers, governments are understandably concerned to ensure that AV technology is as safe as possible. At the conference Introduction: Enabling the AV revolution 2020 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Appendix: Results and methodology ContactsMilestones The road to ubiquity Foreword Introduction Executive Summary National profiles Cities to watch 2020 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index | 5 the Swedish government emphasized the Vision Zero approach it adopted in 1997, which aims that no-one is killed or suffers lifelong injuries from road traffic accidents. 2 In apparent criticism of vehicle makers rushing vehicles with limited autonomy to market, Hakan Samuelsson, the chief executive of Swedish-based vehicle maker Volvo, said in March 2019: “We have a responsibility and everybody whos in this business has that responsibility, because otherwise youre going to kill a technology that might be the best lifesaver in the history of the car.” 3 Swedens safety-focused approach will almost certainly be followed by most other authorities. The outcry following the tragic death of a pedestrian in Phoenix, Arizona who was killed by an AV in 2019 shows that society has a very low tolerance for accidents caused by technology, and governments will set policy accordingly. But there is a risk that setting the safety bar too high for AVs will slow their introduction and lead to many more people dying on roads from human error in the meantime. Privacy AVs present a particular dilemma around data privacy. For public authorities, one of the great opportunities of connected vehicles is the optimization of road capacity. If they know the position and destination of all vehicles in a particular area, an intelligent traffic management system can set the speeds and routes of all these vehicles in order to minimize journey times and congestion levels. But doing so requires vehicle tracking and sharing of personal information in a way which in many cultures is currently regarded as politically unacceptable. Some companies may also be wary of involvement in such work for similar reasons. Countries already diverge significantly over the extent to which they protect the privacy of road users. The European Union has strict privacy standards as a result of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The United States provides less protection at a federal level, although states including California have recently tightened their rules. Some countries including China place less importance on privacy as a result of a more communal approach. 4 This means the data that AVs and other connected vehicles collect and transmit is likely to vary substantially from country to country. For those with strict data protection rules, vehicles will need to anonymize data and minimize what is passed on, while other jurisdictions may require AVs to tell the authorities where they are at all times. KPMG anticipates however that over time the majority of countries will move to some form of data collection from connected vehicles in order to ensure the most efficient use of road space. Digital infrastructure There is debate over how much effort countries and jurisdictions should put into digital infrastructure for AVs, including sensor networks, roadside equipment such as smart traffic lights that can tell AVs when to stop or go, and high-quality digital mapping. Level four AVs, which are only capable of autonomy in certain conditions, may be geo-fenced, or geographically limited, to areas with adequate digital infrastructure. “We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles,” said Fords chief executive officer Jim Hackett in April 2019, adding that the companys first AV was still planned for 2021 but “its applications will be narrow, what we call geo-fenced, because the problem is so complex”. 5 But if this generation of AVs require sensors, on-road equipment and detailed mapping to work well, their popularity and use will be limited to areas that can afford and have invested in such infrastructure. From a safety point of view, level five AVs should not need to rely on external infrastructure to operate. However their safety is likely to come at the cost of efficiency, with a number of studies suggesting slower traffic speeds and worse congestion with AVs because they will drive more defensively than humans. Digital infrastructure, allowing vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication, is potentially the solution to this. V2I systems use a centralized traffic management system to optimize the use of a regions highways by orchestrating how vehicles operate for the benefit of all users. 2020 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Appendix: Results and methodology ContactsMilestones The road to ubiquity Foreword Introduction Executive Summary National profiles Cities to watch 2020 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index | 6 This means potentially different AV operating scenarios. In areas where road capacity is unconstrained, for example in rural areas, AVs may rely more on their own systems. In areas where capacity is constrained, for example in cities and on major highways between cities, it will be more important for governments to invest in digital infrastructure and require AVs to interface with the systems they establish. Impact on transport systems The highest-profile work on AV development, led by technology companies based in the US, has focused on driverless private cars and taxi services. If these predominate, the result is likely to be more vehicles on roads. However, many countries and jurisdictions are using AVs to increase the convenience and popu
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