中国5G发展：重点行业商用进展研究.pdf

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Copyright 2021 EMIS, an ISI Emerging Markets Group Company. All rights reserved. An EMIS Insights Thematic Report 严禁转载。 版权 2021 EMIS, an ISI Emerging Markets Group Company， 保留所有权利。 中国5G发展： 重点行业商用进展研究 EMIS Insights专题报告2 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告 CHINAS 5G IMPLEMENTATION: PROGRESS IN KEY INDUSTRIES 中国 5 G 发 展： 重 点行业商用进 展 研 究 Authors 作者 Yinglei Li Industry Researcher, China at ISI Emerging Markets Group 李莹蕾 李莹蕾 中国行业分析师 ISI Emerging Markets Group Yifei Tan Founder of Beijing Jince Frontier Information Consulting Co Ltd 谭翊飞 谭翊飞 北京金策前沿信息咨询公司创始人 Mr. Tan Yifei has previously worked as editorial team member of Chinas local financial information provider 21st Century Business Herald. He has also provided research and consulting services for numerous of large institutions in China. 谭翊飞先生曾任21世纪经济报道编委成员，并为国内 数家大型机构提供研究及咨询服务China Communication Technology Iteration Timeline 中国通信技术迭代时间线 Constructed by means of the GSM technology proposed by the European Telecommunications Standards Committee 使用欧洲电信标准委员会提 出的GSM技术建立2G网络 MIIT issues 4G mobile communication service TD-LTE licences to the three telecom operators 工信部向三大电信运营商发 放了第四代移动通信业务 TD-LTE牌照 MIIT issues 3G licences to Chinas three major telecom operators 工信部向三大电信运营商发 放3G牌照 MIIT issues 5G commercial licences to the three telecom operators 工信部颁发5G商用牌照 3 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告 3 自中国工业和信息化部2019年向三 大电信运营商颁发5G商用牌照以 来，中国政府不断要求加快5G网 络部署、拓展5G商用场景、利用 5G技术提高制造业智能化水平。 本文将对中国的5G相关政策做简单梳 理，并以钢铁、电力和医疗这三个影 响经济民生的重点行业为例，分析它 们各自结合5G技术所发展出的智慧炼 钢、智能电网和远程医疗的现状，基 于此预测今后中国5G发展可能的投资 重心。 通信网络是现代经济发展的中枢神 经。中国移动通信业在2G以前都处于 跟随状态，3G和4G商用也比全球要 晚，而在5G时代，中国实现了全球同 步商用。 一、中国通信技 术发展简史 CHINAS 5G IMPLEMENTATION: PROGRESS IN KEY INDUSTRIES 中国5G发展：重点行业商用进展研究 Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued 5G commercial licences to Chinas three major telecom operators, namely China Unicom, China Mobile and China Telecom, in 2019, the Chinese government has continuously urged the speeding up of 5G network deployment, the expansion of 5G commercial applications, and the use of 5G technology to optimise manufacturing processes and make them smarter. This report has three key goals. First, to briefly review 5G-related policies in China. Second, to take three key industries - iron and steel, electric power, and healthcare - as examples that affect the economy and peoples livelihoods and analyse their 5G-empowered scenarios, namely smart steel- making, smart grids and telemedicine. And third, the report aims to predict the focus of investment in Chinas 5G development in the future. A Brief History of Chinas Communication Technology Development From following-up to leading Communication networks are the backbone of modern economic devel- opment. Chinas mobile telecommunications industry was lagging behind before 2G adoption and commercialised 3G and 4G standards later than the rest of the world. In the 5G era, however, the industry has finally managed to catch up. 从跟随到领跑 1995 2009 2013 2019 2G 4G 3G 5G4 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告 Similar to the trajectory of Chinas economic development, communica- tions technology has gone through a long process of catching up. The strong support from the government is an important factor that helped Chinas communications industry move from being an underdog to becom- ing a global leader. The competition in the communications industry is not only about indus- trial strength but also about technical standards. In the 2G era and be- fore, China did not play a role in the formulation of international technical standards. It was in the early stages of the 3G era that China began to con- duct research and development (R and direct reduction processes to steel via electric arc furnaces (DR-EAF), also known as the short flow. The raw materials for BF-BOF are iron ore and coke, while the DR-EAF uses scrap steel and a small amount of molten iron. Compared with BF-BOF, DR-EAF has absolute advantages in terms of effi- ciency and environmental protection. Research by Chinas major steelmak- er Baosteel shows that through DR-EAF, 60% of energy can be saved and emissions of waste gas, waste water and slag can be reduced by 86%, 76% and 72%, respectively. However, in Chinas iron and steel sector, the use of the DR-EAF process is still very low. According to Xu Kuangdi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the share of DR-EAF in the US and the EU has reached 40%, while in China it is only 10%. One of the reasons for the slow adoption of DR-EAF is the shortage of scrap steel resources in China, resulting in high refining costs for DR-EAF. 确定性：高 确定性：高 在国家促进汽车消费、持续推进城镇 化、继续投资基础设施建设的支持 下，未来对钢铁的需求预计会保持增 长。 但钢铁行业需应对技术升级和低碳发 展这两大压力，智能制造转型是必然 方向，而融合5G技术有望加速这一过 程，因此5G应用的确定性很高。 就炼钢工艺来说，分为长流程和短 流程两类。长流程（blast furnace to basic oxygen furnace, BF-BOF route），即高炉-转炉炼钢，以铁矿 石和焦炭为原料进行冶炼。短流程 （direct reduction processes to steel via electric arc furnaces, DR-EAF）采 用电弧炉直接还原，以废钢和少量铁 水为原料。 相比于长流程，短流程在效率和环保 方面具有绝对优势。宝钢股份的研究 显示，短流程可节约60%的能源，分 别减少废气、废水和废渣排放86% 、76%和72%。 但中国钢铁行业中，短流程工艺占比 还很低。根据中国工程院院士徐匡迪 的分析，美国及欧盟的炼钢短流程占 比已达到40%，而中国仅为10%。 短流程工艺推进缓慢的原因之一， 是过去中国废钢资源短缺，造成短 12 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告13 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告 However, this problem is gradually being solved. According to the statistics from the China Association of Metal Scrap Utilization, the total output of scrap steel nationwide in 2019 was 240mn tonnes, an increase of 9% y/y. By 2030, the annual output of scrap steel will exceed 300mn tonnes. Since January 1, 2020, the Chinese government has allowed domestic companies to import recycled steel raw materials that meet standards, further re- plenishing the supply of raw materials for DR-EAF steel-making. In consideration of environmental protection and energy conservation as well as to reduce risk exposure to fluctuating prices of iron ore and coal, more and more steel-making enterprises are expected to upgrade to DR- EAF. In the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry issued by the MIIT on April 17, 2021, it is stipulated that the ratio of capacity replacement (production capacity retired/capacity added) shall not be less than 1.5:1 in key areas for air pollution prevention and control, and not less than 1.25:1 in other regions, but can be 1:1 in the two cases involving the replacement of electric furnaces. These two cases are: This shows that the government intends to increase the proportion of DR- EAF steel-making. However, in addition to the shortage of raw materials, which has been gradually tackled, another reason why it is difficult to promote DR-EAF is the lack of a scrap steel quality monitoring system. According to the re- search of China Metallurgical News, the quality inspection of scrap steel in China currently mainly relies on manual visual inspection with little help of smart equipment. Moreover, the selection and classification of scrap steel is not strict enough. It poses a great obstacle not only to the procurement of raw materials for DR-EAF steel-making but also to the addition of mate- rials during the refining process. Building electric furnaces while retiring converters and supporting sintering, coke ovens, blast furnaces and other equipment. The smelting equipment retired and added both being electric fur- naces. 流程炼制成本高。但这一问题正在 逐步得到解决，根据废钢协会统计预 测，2019年全国废钢铁资源总产量 为2.4亿吨，同比增长9%，到2030 年废钢铁资源年产量将超过3亿吨。 同时，2020年1月1日起，国内企业 能够自由进口符合标准的再生钢铁原 料，进一步增加短流程炼钢的原材料 供给。 出于环保节能的考虑，同时对抗铁矿 石和煤炭的价格波动风险，未来炼钢 流程预计会更多地向短流程工艺升 级。 在工信部2021年4月17日发布的钢 铁行业产能置换实施办法中，规 定产能置换比例（退出产能/建设产 能）在大气污染防治重点区域不低于 1.5：1，在其他地区不低于1.25：1 ，但是涉及置换电炉的两种情况可以 进行1：1置换。分别是 由此可见国家有意提高炼钢短流程工 艺比例。 然而，除了已逐渐不再是问题的原料 短缺，短流程工艺难以推进还有另一 个原因，即国内对废钢质量的监控尚 未成体系。根据中国冶金报的研究， 中国目前废钢的质量检测主要依靠人 工目测，缺少智能化设备，对废钢的 挑选分类也不够严格。这对短流程炼 钢的原料采购和炼制过程中的加料形 成极大障碍。 企业内部退出转炉建设电炉且 一并退出配套的烧结、焦炉、 高炉等设备项目的炼钢产能。 退出和建设冶炼设备均为电炉 的项目。 1. 1. 2. 2. CHINAS 5G IMPLEMENTATION: PROGRESS IN KEY INDUSTRIES 中国5G发展：重点行业商用进展研究14 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告 CHINAS 5G IMPLEMENTATION: PROGRESS IN KEY INDUSTRIES 中国 5 G 发 展： 重 点行业商用进 展 研 究 What can 5G do? In terms of scrap picking, in November 2020, Hunan Ramon Technology Co Ltd and Shandong Luli Group cooperated to launch a remote smart grading system for scrap steel. The whole process, from scrap steel entering the factory to scrap grading, classification, delivery, and data storage, can be completed automatically. This system is the first example of transforming to smart manufacturing in Chinas scrap steel segment. In terms of scrap steel transportation, there are more cases of implement- ing 5G technology. Moving scrap in steel plants requires low-latency ac- curacy and remote control requires 4K-level ultra-definition video, which cannot be satisfied with 4G bandwidth. However, 5G can reduce the control latency to 20ms. In September 2019, Valin Groups Xiangtan Iron city/county-level power grids shall strengthen local grid structures to increase urban clean energy consumption; parks/residential areas shall focus on the response capabilities of adjusting power consumption and locally build flexible charging and discharging systems that combine distributed power genera- tion and energy storage. As previously mentioned, only by utilising 5Gs large data traffic, ultra-low latency, and massive access can these goals be achieved. In July 2020, the largest 5G smart grid in China was completed in Qingdao, Shan- dong province. The project is jointly promoted by State Grid Qingdao Power Supply Company, China Telecom Qingdao Branch, and Huawei. It has made real automatic response and fault isolation possible within tens of milliseconds. The above-mentioned Guiding Opinions have an effective period of five years, so it can be inferred that in the following half decade the power grid system in China will undergo large-scale upgrades similar to Qingdaos 5G smart grid. State Grid also announced in January 2021 that it would invest more than USD 70bn annually in energy internet upgrades over the next five years. However, considering the large number of participants and the large area involved in the power grid upgrade, as well as the deployment of 5G base stations across the country, the application speed is considered medium. 速度：中 速度：中 2021年2月25日，国家发改委与国家 能源局联合印发关于推进电力源网 荷储一体化和多能互补发展的指导意 见，提出要构建“以电网为平台、 统筹电源负荷与调度运行各环节、 源网荷储高度融合的新一代电力系 统”。 具体来说，要求省级电网通过电力 市场价格信号，提高用户调峰的积 极性；市/县级电网加强局部电网结 构，增加城市清洁能源消纳；园区/ 居民区级注重用电调节响应能力，同 时在本地建设分布式发电和储能相结 合的灵活充放电系统。 如前面所分析的，必须依靠5G网络的 大数据流量、超低时延和海量接入， 才能实现这些侧重电网灵活性的目 标。 2020年7月，中国最大规模的5G智能 电网在青岛建成。该项目由国网青岛 供电公司、中国电信青岛分公司、华 为公司三方合作推进，实现了发生故 障在几十毫秒内的自动响应和故障隔 离。 根据上面这则有效期为5年的指导 意见，可以推断未来5年内，中国 电网系统将大规模进行此类5G通信网 络升级。国家电网也在2021年1月宣 布，未来5年将年均投资超过700亿美 元用于能源互联网升级。 但是考虑到电网升级涉及的主体之 多、面积之广，还需配合全国5G基 站的铺设进度，因此推广速度评定为 中。 CHINAS 5G IMPLEMENTATION: PROGRESS IN KEY INDUSTRIES 中国5G发展：重点行业商用进展研究22 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告 Certainty 确定性 Difficulty 难度 Speed 速度 Mediun 中 High 高 Slow 慢 Telemedicine refers to the detection, diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment of remote patients by means of electronic technologies such as communi- cation, imaging, and joystick remote control. At present, internet health- care applications in China mainly consist of medical services such as on- line consultation, drug prescription, and online appointment of hospital visits. The online healthcare services and platforms of internet giants such as AliHealth, JD Health and Ping An Good Doctor are all of this kind. Re- mote treatment in the true sense is still very rare. 远程医疗，指利用通信、影像、摇杆 遥控等电子技术，对远地患者进行检 测、诊断、监护、治疗。目前国内在 互联网+医疗方面的应用，主要汇集 在线上问诊、配药、网上挂号这些服 务性医疗环节，比如由互联网巨头发 起的阿里健康、京东健康、平安好医 生等等，服务基本类似。真正意义上 的远程治疗还非常少见。 Telemedicine 远程医疗 Certainty: Medium The distribution of medical resources across regions in China is uneven. In 2020, the medical expenditure per capita in urban areas was RMB 2,172, and that in rural areas was only RMB 1,418, or 65% of the urban level. This indicates the difficulty for rural people to obtain adequate medical servic- es. Therefore, in its 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Outline of 2035 Long-Term Goals, the government proposes that telemedicine should be promoted to improve the access to medical resources in remote areas. In October 2020, the MIIT and the National Health Commission issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Capacity of Telemedicine Networks, requesting accelerating the promotion of 5G network coverage in medical and healthcare institutions, and covering Grade-II and Grade-III hospitals with private networks. Equipped with 5G network infrastructure, health institutions can accelerate the application of telemedicine. However, telemedicine involves changes in service models, putting chal- lenges on the traditional relationship between doctors, hospitals, medical insurance, and patients. Whether the new format of 5G + healthcare can be accepted by the public is still unclear, thus making the adoption of 5G technology solutions in the industry less certain. 确定性：中 确定性：中 中国地区间医疗资源分配失衡，2020 年，中国城镇地区人均医疗保健支出 2,172元，农村地区仅为其65%，即 1,418元，显示出农村人口难以获得 足够医疗服务的问题。因此，国家在 中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十四个五年规划和二三五年 远景目标的建议中提出，要推广远 程医疗，以此增加偏远地区的医疗资 源供给。 2020年10月，工信部和卫健委发布 关于进一步加强远程医疗网络能力 建设的通知，要求加快推进5G网络 覆盖医疗卫生机构、专线网络资源覆 盖二级及以上医院。卫生机构配备好 5G网络这一基础设施后，能够加速远 程医疗的应用落地。 但远程医疗涉及服务模式的改变，挑 战了医生、医院、医保、患者多主体 之间的传统关系，5G+医疗的新业态 能否被大众接受还未可知，因此降低 了本行业内5G应用的确定性。 CHINAS 5G IMPLEMENTATION: PROGRESS IN KEY INDUSTRIES 中国5G发展：重点行业商用进展研究23 An EMIS Insights Thematic Report EMIS Insights专 题 报告 Urban and Rural Healthcare Expenditure per Capita 城乡医疗保健人均支出对比 1,631 1,777 2,046 2,283 2,172 929 1,059 1,240 1,421 1,418 7.1% 7.3% 7.8% 8.1% 8.0% 9.2% 9.7% 10.2% 10.7% 10.3% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 城 镇 医 疗 保健人均支出（元） Urban Healthcare Expenditure per Capita, RMB 农 村医 疗 保健人均支出（元） Rural Healthcare Expenditure per Capita, RMB 占城 镇 人均 总 支出比重 Share in Total Urban Expenditure per Capita 占 农 村人均 总 支出比重 Share in Total