智能汽车未来已来.pdf

S0790519100001 2021 5 10 S0790120070082 S0790519100001 S0790519110002 S0790120070081 S0790120040007 1 1 2 3 4 Huawei Inside L4 1+8+N AR-HUD E/E ECU AI SOC SOA 2 3 VS SOA 4 51 2 3 CONTENTS SOA 4 51.1 65% 11.2 2014 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 ONE 造车新 势力 Waymo 360 OPPO 2 31.2 2019 2018 2019 2020 2018 Model 3 ES8 ONE P7 EX5/EX6 Autopilot 3.0 NIO Pilot - Xpilot 3.0 Living Pilot 1 +12 +3 / +6 5 +12 +3 / +4 +1 1 +12 +1 / +4 5 +12 +9 / +4 +1 3 +12 +1 / +4 - NOMI OS - Xmart OS Living Engine Kitt NOMI WIKI P 15 11.3 +9.8 16.2 +12.3 14.96 +10.25 12.8 +12.3 FSD 6.4 NIO Pilot 1.5 3.9 Xpilot 3.0 3.6 2 OTA 2012 131+ 280+ 6 OTA 59+ 1900 3 11.3 + L3 Orin 2024 Waymo L4 Orin 2022 ET7 4 Orin 1000TOPS 2020 11 2020 11 2020 9 2020 6 2021 1 2021 4 Huawei inside S 41 2 3 CONTENTS SOA 4 52.1 Huawei Inside Intel Huawei Inside Hi CC +4 + Hi Logo + ARCFOX S HBT 2021 4 5 62.2 AVL 1 Snapdragon Ride 700TOPS 130W 400TOPS 5.4TOPS/W 2 MDC810 400TOPS 300W 200TOPS 1.3TOPS/W 3 Drive AGX Pegasus Robotaxi 2000TOPS 800W 200TOPS 2.5TOPS/W 4 FSD 144TOPS 72W 16TOPS 2TOPS/W 5 Mobileye EyeQ5 24TOPS 10W 12TOPS 2.4TOPS/W 6 Matrix2 40TOPS 20W 4TOPS 2TOPS/W ADAS L4 ADAS L4 ADAS MDC 1 L2-L4 2 3 ISO26262 ASIL-D 7 L2-L4 2 MDC6002.2 1 + 2 Waymo + + 2016 Pilot 10 Frost Sullivan 2025 135.4 43.1 2019-2025 CAGR 63.1% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Frost Sullivan 8 9 20242.3 ICVTank 1+ 8+ N” OS 1+8+N 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1+8+N 8 5 ICVTank 2025 1030 2019-2025 CAGR 15% ICVTank 10 OS 1+8+N 11 2025 10302.3 AR-HUD+ AR-HUD& AR-HUD 13 X5 1920X640 70 X7.5m 2K 15.6 S-HBT AR-HUD 10L FOV 13 X 5 70 X 7.5m 1920 X 640 12000nits 3 AR-HUD 121 2 3 CONTENTS SOA 4 53.1 E/E E/E E/E ECU ECU + Tesla A8 CT5 iS6 ID.3 13 E/E 14 Tesla Model 3 E/E3.2 NXP / T-box V2X 153.3 SoC AI 1 GPU/ FPGA/ASIC CPU+GPU/FPGA/ASIC SoC 2 AI SoC CSDN GPU FPGA ASIC / CUDA OpenCL Verilog/VHDL OpenCL HLS / 4 SoC GPU/FPGA/ASIC CPU 163.4 VS AI Tier1 17 + Mobileye+ 18 / + + + +1 2 3 CONTENTS SOA 4 54.1 Lex Fridman 1 Lex Fridman Lex Fridman 19 OTA 20 51 21 954.1 2 -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 iphone/Mac 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% iOS 2020 WWDC 2300 McKinsey analysis 22 2030 500 23 20% 243.1 253.2 SOA E/E SOA SOA ECU 26 SOA3.3 SOA 27 SOA3.3 芯片 操作系统内核 软件中间件 算法、应用、APP 等 Mobileye QNX Linux Android Vecotor ETAS 281 2 3 CONTENTS SOA 4 55.1 EPS PE 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 002906.SZ 0.63 0.88 1.15 47.90 34.30 26.30 128.45 26.73 002920.SZ 1.45 1.63 2.07 63.20 56.40 44.40 553.30 100.06 300223.SZ 1.29 2.02 2.81 47.20 30.10 21.70 290.02 63.97 300496.SZ 1.44 1.93 2.58 94.90 70.80 53.00 518.15 125.50 Wind 2021 5 10 5 HUD Tier1 NRE Royalty ISSI5.2612 A 300 500 buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C51788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5