锂难解的刚性缺口.pdf

1 / 28 2021 08 25 S0790520100002 2020-2023 +5.4 +1.0 -2.3 +5.3 LCE 2021-2022 4 2023 1-2 2020-2023 42.7 53.1 68.3 96.8 LCE CAGR 31.4% 3C 5G 2020-2023 36.2 50.4 68.4 88.9 LCE CAGR 34.9% 2021-2022 10 / 2021-2022 700 / 7 / 8 / 8 2023 16 65Kwh 15 18 1726 2761 -70% 0% 70% 141% 211% 281% 351% 2020-08 2020-12 2021-04 3002 / 28 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 5 2 . 7 2.1 4 . 7 2.2 . 8 2.3 . 9 2.3.1 2023 . 9 2.3.2 . 10 2.3.3 . 11 3 . 12 3.1 . 12 3.2 5G 3C . 14 3.3 . 15 4 . 16 4.1 . 16 4.2 . 17 5 . 18 5.1 . 18 5.2 . 20 5.3 . 21 5.4 . 23 5.5 . 24 5.6 . 24 5.7 . 25 6 . 26 1 2020Q4 / . 4 2 2020 10 . 5 3 60% . 5 4 . 6 5 2016 3 / . 6 6 . 7 7 2021 7 27.1 . 12 8 2021 7 14.5% . 12 9 2021H1 + EFTA + 157 . 13 10 2021H1 + EFTA + 15.8% . 13 11 2021H1 115% . 14 12 2021H1 3.1% . 14 13 2021 6 5G 77 . 143 / 28 14 2021 5.5 . 14 15 2019 4.9% . 16 16 2019 79.7% . 16 17 680 / . 18 18 . 19 19 . 20 20 . 22 21 75% . 23 22 6 / . 24 23 2020 13602 . 25 24 SDLA Arizaro . 26 1 4 . 8 2 SQM ALB Orocobre Livent . 9 3 2020 0.9 LCE . 9 4 2020 5.2 LCE . 11 5 2020 3.1 LCE . 12 6 2018-2020 . 15 7 2021-2022 . 17 8 . 18 9 2623 LCE . 19 10 4.05 / 8.1 / . 20 11 1607 LCE . 21 12 4.4 . 21 13 2022 3 . 22 14 . 23 15 11.15 . 23 16 2020 20153 . 24 17 . 264 / 28 1 5-7 8 10 / 7 1 / 5 5 1.1 2020Q4 2020Q4 1 2020 10 2021 4 1.9 / 2 2021 5 8 8 1.5 / 1 2020Q4 / Wind 2020 10 2021 45 / 28 MINI 2021 5 80% 90% 80% 4 Marion Greenbushes Pilbara Cattlin 2 2020 10 3 60% SMM SMM 1.2 1 /6 / 28 4 2016 3 3 2016 6 2017 8 2018 4 2020 12 2021 5 5 2016 3 / SMM7 / 28 1 2 1 / 6 2 2.1 4 4 Marion Cattlin Pilbara Greenbushes 134 / 60 / ALB Kemerton Finniss Holland 2022Q4 2024H2 Altura8 / 28 2021Q4 Bald Hill Wodgina Manono James Bay 2023-2024 1-2 2021 Pilbara Cattlin 1 4 Greenbushes (51 /ALB 49 134 60 2025 Mt Marion 50 /Mineral Resources 50 40 - Pilgangoora-Pilbara Pilbara Minerals 100 33 / 5 / 2021 9 50 / Mt Cattlin Galaxy Resources 100 19 / - Pilgangoora-Altura Pilbara Minerals 100 22 22 2021Q4 Bald Hill Alita Resources 100 15.5 - 2019 8 Alita Wodgina ALB 60 /Mineral Resources 40 75 - 2019 10 Mt. Holland Wesfarmers 50 /SQM 50 - 30 2024H2 Mt Finniss Core Lithium 100% - 17.5 2022Q4 Mibra AMG 100% 9 / 4 Manono A VZ Minerals 60 /Cominiere 25 /Dathomir Mining Resourses SARL 15 - 70 2023 Q1 James Bay Galaxy Resources 100 - 33 2024 2.2 20209 / 28 SQM Atacama 5 LCE 8000 ALB Atacama 4 2021 2022 2 SQM ALB Orocobre Livent Salar de Atacama SQM 100% 7 LCE 1.35 2021 12 LCE 2.15 2022 18 LCE 3 Salar de Atacama ALB 100% 4.4 4 2021 Silver peak ALB 100% 0.6 0.6 2025 Salar de Olaroz Orocobre 66.5% 1.75 2.5 2022H2 2024 Salar del Hombre Muerto Livent 100% 2 0.9 2 1 2023Q1 2023Q4 Cauchari-Olaroz 49% / 51% - 4 2022 H1 Sal de Vida Galaxy Resources 100% - 3.2 1.07 2022 2025 2027 2.3 2.3.1 2023 2020 5.8 1.1 0.9 LCE 47 / 2022 18 / 2022 2023 2025 10 LCE 3 2020 0.9 LCE 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 45 8 250 58399 70000 75000 250000 500000 55000010 / 28 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 47 2022 40.5 7.5 10702 40000 60000 75000 75000 75000 / 105 18 2022 - - 10000 100000 150000 180000 2016 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 69101 110000 145000 425000 725000 805000 LCE 8638 13750 18125 53125 90625 100625 LCE YOY 59% 32% 193% 71% 11% SMM 2.3.2 3000 LCE 2020 5.2 LCE 2020 52% 2020 1 2 2020 520 85% 62% 23% 2021 5 2025 10.6 LCE11 / 28 4 2020 5.2 LCE 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1 1 4430 8000 9000 10000 10000 10000 1 2 2021 4 13602 24000 30000 35000 35000 35000 1 2 4500 7000 9000 15000 20000 25000 2 3500 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 2 9000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 + 1 9422 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 / 0.3 0.7 3 1 2000 3500 3500 3500 3500 3500 / / 0.7 2200 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 5000 60% 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 - - 150 400 600 800 1000 1200 LCE 51804 73900 83100 95300 100500 105700 LCE YOY 43% 12% 15% 5% 5% SMM 2.3.3 260 50% 25% 2020 3.1 LCE 2025 12.7 LCE12 / 28 5 2020 3.1 LCE 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1 / 2 2021Q4 2022Q3 9612 13000 25000 32000 32000 32000 3 / 50% 1 0.5 2619 12000 15000 15000 15000 15000 6 15000 22000 35000 50000 60000 60000 2 4000 12000 18000 20000 20000 20000 LCE 31231 59000 93000 117000 127000 127000 LCE YOY 89% 58% 26% 9% 0% SMM 1 2020 2 2020 1481 3 3 3.1 13 2020 132.29 9.69 2020 7 13 2021 7 27.1 2020 1 2021 7 14.5 1-7 9.9% 7 2021 7 27.1 8 2021 7 14.5% -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 : : : : YOY 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-0113 / 28 2019 2020 9 2030 ACEA 2020 + EFTA + 136.5 142 2021H1 102.9 157% 2021 H1 + EFTA + 15.8 9 2021H1 + EFTA + 157 10 2021H1 + EFTA + 15.8% ACEA ACEA 2021 1 20 1 2050 100% 2 5,000 100% 3 100% 4 2030 50 2021 3 31 8 2.25 1740 2021H1 27.3 115% 3.09% 2020 0.87pct 2021 8 4 2030 50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H1 YOY 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H114 / 28 11 2021H1 115% 12 2021H1 3.1% Auto Data EV Sales Auto Data EV Sales 3.2 5G 3C 5G 2021 6 2566 5G 1979 77.12 5G 2021 1-6 1.74 13.73% IDC 2020 12.92 5.76 IDC 5G 2021 5.5% 2020-2025 3.6 13 2021 6 5G 77 14 2021 5.5 IDC 2018-2020 IDC 2021 5G 40% 2025 69% 5G -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H1 YOY 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H1 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2019-01 2019-10 2020-07 2021-04 5G YOY 5G -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E YOY15 / 28 6 2018-2020 2018 2019 2020 mAh mAh mAh 1 iPhone 8 1821 iPhone XR 2942 iPhone 11 3110 2 iPhone X 2716 iPhone 11 3110 iPhone SE (2020) 1821 3 iPhone 8 Plus 2675 Galaxy A10 3400 iPhone 12 2815 4 Galaxy Grand Prime Plus 2600 Galaxy A50 4000 Galaxy A51 4000 5 iPhone XR 2942 Galaxy A20 4000 Galaxy A21s 5000 6 iPhone Xs Max 3174 iPhone 11 Pro Max 3969 Galaxy A01 3000 7 Galaxy S9 3000 iPhone 8 1821 iPhone 12 Pro Max 3687 8 Galaxy S9 Plus 3500 Redmi Note 7 4000 Galaxy A11 4000 9 P20 Lite 3000 iPhone 11 Pro 3190 Redmi Note 9 Pro 4820 10 iPhone Xs 2658 Galaxy J2 Core 2600 iPhone 12 mini 2227 mAh 2809 mAh 3303 mAh 3448 IDC 3.3 2019 93.7% 2019 8 2021 7 29 8 1016 / 28 5G 2020 5G 71.8 2021 60 4G 5G 5G 5G 5G 15 2019 4.9% 16 2019 79.7% CNESA CNESA 4 4.1 2021-2022 2020-2023 42.7 53.1 68.3 96.8 LCE CAGR 31.4% 2020-2023 36.2 50.4 68.4 88.9 LCE CAGR 34.9% 2021-2022 2023 2023 42% 2021-2022 93.70% 4.90% 1.40% 79.70% 19.10% 1.2017 / 28 7 2021-2022 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 19.5 23.1 26.8 37.1 14.0 15.4 22.2 33.1 0.9 1.4 1.8 5.3 5.2 7.4 8.3 9.5 3.1 5.9 9.3 11.7 LCE 42.7 53.1 68.3 96.8 13.2 24.4 38.4 53.4 3C 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.2 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.8 1.5 2.7 4.6 7.3 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 LCE LCE 36.2 50.4 68.4 88.9 LCE 4.5 6.3 8.6 11.1 + /- 5.4 1.0 -2.3 5.3 SMM 4.2 Greenbushes 300 350-500 Bald Hill 680 / 7 / 8 / 8 10 2023 1618 / 28 17 680 / EV 65Kwh 10 / 3451 1 350 18 / 6212 8 100000 120000 150000 180000 LFP LCE/Kwh 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 LFP Kwh 65 65 65 65 LFP 39 39 39 39 3451 4142 5177 6212 5 5.119 / 28 18 2623 LCE SPV Millennial 9 2623 LCE LCE LCE Marion 242 50.0% 121 2623 Pilbara 693 6.3% 44 10 100.0% 10 Avalonia - 56.7% - Mariana 520 86.1% 447 Cauchari-Olaroz 2458 58.3% 1432 - 70.0% - Sonora 882 64.4% 568 Bacanora Bacanora 10020 / 28 19 1 SPV Millennial 2 Bacanora Bacanora 100% 4.05 / 8.1 / 2020 5 12.15 / Cauchari-Olaroz 4 2022 2020 6.3 2021-2023 8.5 12 15 10 4.05 / 8.1 / / / 40500 25750 Cauchari-Olaroz 4 2022 81000 31000 1600 1600 5.2 Greenbushes Greenbushes 134 / 2025 60 194 / 20% SQM25.86% 1607 LCE21 / 28 11 1607 LCE LCE LCE LCE LCE SQM 4855 - 25.86% 1256 1607 690 878 51.00% 352 - 183 20.00% - - 63 100.00% - 4.4 / 3.45 / 0.5 / 0.45 / 800 / 2 4.8 2.4 2021 2022Q4 12 4.4 3.45 / 2 0.5 / 4.8 2.4 2021 2022 Q4 0.45 / - 800 / - 5.3 1.87 4507 0.76 731 5000 6 1 20 1 4222 / 28 20 170 / 50 + 120 1 / 2 180 / 2022 1 2022 4 2021-2023 2020 9612 1481 1.3 2.5 3.2 13 2022 3 50 / 120 / 1 / 180 / 2 / 1 1 2022 1 2 2022 4 2020 Q3 2776 35905 / 2020 Q4 3224 33109 / SMM 2021 8 10 /23 / 28 14 2020Q3 2020Q4 2,776 3,224 9,967 10,673 35,905 33,109 5.4 2019 100% 75% 11.15 40.5 / 7.5 2019 11 2020 1.07 2021 4 21 75% 15 11.15 Li2O Nb2O5 Ta2O5 857.9 111,451 1.30% 797 0.01% 633 0.01% 2.5 / 1.5 / 3 / 2 / 2020 4 2 2020Q4 1 2020 20153 2021-2023 3.0 3.8 5.024 / 28 16 2020 20153 2.5 1 2020Q4 - 2018 -2020 4883 12130 20153 1.5 1 2020 Q4 3 2 2020 5.5 500 2020 551.75 644.90 1 / 2 2021 4 2021 3 6 / 2021 6 10 34000 / 2 1 2000 0.25-0.3g/l 10 / 22 6 / 50% 5.625 / 28 2015 2017 48.58% 2020 1 2020 13602 2 2021 4 2021 2021-2023 2.4 3.0 3.5 23 2020 13602 5.7 2018 Lithium100% Arizaro 19.7 Lithium 3.38 96 SDLA 200 LCE 2500 LCE 5.5%-6% SDLA 2.5 LCE 2.75 LCE 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2018 2019 202026 / 28 24 SDLA Arizaro 17 / EPS / PE 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 002460.SZ 2754 191.60 0.76 1.56 2.27 2.98 132.34 122.61 84.54 64.30 002466.SZ 1792 121.32 -1.24 0.41 0.95 1.39 -31.63 295.33 127.81 87.18 002240.SZ 402 46.54 0.04 0.76 1.16 1.33 674.26 61.08 40.20 34.92 000792.SZ 2330 42.88 0.38 1.03 1.22 1.29 23.55 41.71 35.12 33.19 600499.SH 379 20.09 0.15 0.46 0.68 0.77 46.53 43.42 29.75 26.11 600338.SH 352 38.50 0.03 1.03 1.24 2.09 313.26 37.22 31.06 18.43 002756.SZ 377 92.84 0.66 1.68 3.74 4.66 82.75 55.26 24.82 19.92 Wind 1 Wind 2 2021 8 24 627 / 28 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50028 / 28 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065