宏观经济专题：当“水泥旺季”遇上“产能受限”.pdf

1 / 19 2021 09 21 - -2021.9.18 - -2021.9.15 - -2021.9.12 S0790520060002 S0790520070004 S0790121060023 7 9 17 174.2 7 25% 36.4% 34.7% 21.1% 1-2% 8 1.2 31.7% 5 8 118.7 2016 138.5 5 8 4.3% 9 62.1% 2020 4.6 8 7.9% 12.7% 35% 27% 733 25% 8 19 72.7% 8 “ ”2 / 19 1 “ ” “ ” . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 5 1.3 . 8 2 . 10 2.1 . 10 2.2 . 10 2.3 . 11 3 . 12 3.1 . 12 3.2 . 14 3.3 . 16 4 . 17 1 7 . 4 2 7 . 4 3 . 4 4 . 4 5 8 . 5 6 . 5 7 8 . 5 8 8 . 5 9 . 6 10 . 6 11 2020 . 6 12 . 6 13 . 7 14 . 7 15 . 7 16 . 7 17 . 8 18 2020 . 8 19 . 9 20 2021 . 9 21 . 9 22 . 9 23 28 . 10 24 . 10 25 . 11 26 . 11 27 - -9 . 113 / 19 28 -42 . 11 29 30 . 12 30 30 . 12 31 30 . 13 32 30 . 13 33 100 . 13 34 100 . 13 35 100 . 14 36 . 14 37 . 14 38 . 14 39 . 15 40 . 15 41 . 15 42 . 15 43 . 16 44 . 16 45 . 16 46 (100 ) . 16 47 . 17 48 LME3 . 17 1 . 7 2 . 8 3 . 11 4 . 124 / 19 1 1.1 7 9 17 174.2 2011 2020 144.5 118.9 7 25% 2020 6.3% 7% 7 2 7 1 Wind Wind 7 20 9 17 36.4% 34.7% 25.1% 21.1% 1-2% 3 4 Wind Wind 1 7 20 -9 17 130 140 150 160 170 180 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( ) 2018 2019 2020 2021 3.4 7.0 4.4 2.9 2.4 6.3 25.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (%) 7 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 2021-09 ( ) 36.4 34.7 25.1 21.1 2.4 1.5 1.0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 (%) 75 / 19 8 1.2 31.7% 5 8 118.7 2016 138.5 5 8 Wind Wind 7 8 8 CCMA CCMA 1.2 2016 2012 2013 2016 2020 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 2021-08 (%) ( ) ( ) 0 40 80 120 160 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( / ) 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( ) 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 50 100 150 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( ) 2018 2019 2020 20216 / 19 9 Wind Wind 5 8 4.3% 9 62.1% 2020 4.6 8 7.9% 12.7% 2020 Wind Wind -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2010-01 2010-09 2011-05 2012-01 2012-09 2013-05 2014-01 2014-09 2015-05 2016-01 2016-09 2017-05 2018-01 2018-09 2019-05 2020-01 2020-09 2021-05 (%) (%) + (5MMA, ) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 (%) 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( ) 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (%) 2018 2019 2020 20217 / 19 Wind Wind 35% 27% 733 / 25% 8 16 Wind 1 2021/8/31 10 1.65 1 0.5 1.7 1 0.38 25% 2021/8/31 10 50% 2021/9/1 10 1 2021/9/7 50% 20% 2021/9/6 0.072 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 2021-08 (%) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 2021-08 (%) 15 35 27 9 14 (%) 500 550 600 650 700 750 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 2020-12 2021-03 2021-06 2021-09 ( ) (%)8 / 19 2021/9/9 5.6 6 6.38 1.3 19 72.7% 8 2 18 2020 Wind 2 / 2021/8/18 110 40 20 30 20 2021/8/17 2021 2021/9/2 9 2021 40% 9 40% 2021/9/7 30%-50% 2021/9/9 2022 6 2021/9/11 2021 9 8 80% 10-12 40 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 (%) ( ) 2020 (9 / 19 2021 50% 2020 10 16.1% 19 20 2021 Wind 21 22 Wind Wind 1 7 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) 2020 2021 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2016-01 2016-02 2016-03 2016-04 2016-05 2016-06 2016-07 2016-08 2016-09 2016-10 2016-11 2016-12 ( ) 2018 2019 2020 2021 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2017-08 2017-11 2018-02 2018-05 2018-08 2018-11 2019-02 2019-05 2019-08 2019-11 2020-02 2020-05 2020-08 2020-11 2021-02 2021-05 2021-08 (%)10 / 19 3 2 2.1 9 13 -9 18 28 2.0% 4.46 / 0.1% 20.00 / 28 Wind Wind 2.2 9 13 -9 17 0.18% 6.45 93.26 0.67% - -9 -42 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 / 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 /11 / 19 Wind Wind - -9 -42 Wind Wind 2.3 9 13 -9 17 1.6% 5.2% 11.9% 14.1% 7.9% 3 - 1 . 6 % - 0 . 8 % 0 . 5 % - 5 . 2 % 2 . 4 % - 3 . 5 % 0 . 6 % 1 . 3 % - 0 . 7 % 2 . 3 % 0 . 6 % - 1 . 8 % Wind 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 ( ) 5.70 5.75 5.80 5.85 5.90 5.95 6.00 6.05 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 100 ( ) -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 - ( ) -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 6.25 6.30 6.35 6.40 6.45 6.50 6.55 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 ( ) USDCNH12 / 19 4 PTA PVC - 1 4 . 1 % 1 1 . 9 % - 4 . 7 % - 0 . 7 % - 1 . 2 % - 5 . 8 % - 2 . 0 % - 7 . 9 % - 1 . 1 % - 2 . 9 % 3 . 9 % - 0 . 9 % - 0 . 7 % 2 . 0 % 1 . 3 % - 0 . 4 % 1 . 7 % 1 . 6 % 0 . 7 % - 2 . 3 % - 1 . 4 % - 4 . 7 % 1 . 4 % 3 . 1 % - 2 . 9 % 4 . 8 % - 0 . 3 % 0 . 4 % Wind 3 3.1 9 5 -9 12 30 30 279 67 23.3% 149 7.6% 63 19.5% 30 30 Wind Wind 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 (13 / 19 30 30 Wind Wind 9 5 -9 12 100 741 65.4% 1976 / 69.8% 1.70 100 100 Wind Wind 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 800 1,300 1,800 2,300 2,800 3,300 3,800 4,300 4,800 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( /14 / 19 100 Wind Wind 3.2 9 13 -9 17 Myspic 209.28 0.4% 55.7% 0.1% 174.20 9.6% 2361 / 7.92% Wind Wind 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 2021-09 (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 (%) 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 2021-09 Myspic MySpic MySpic 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 (15 / 19 Wind Wind 9 13 -9 17 0.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.4% 12.1% 2.0% 6.3% 0.9% 12820 / 3.0% Wind Wind 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 1300 1700 2100 2500 2900 3300 2020-10 2020-11 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-08 2021-09 ( / ) 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 1# A00 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 1# 1# ( ) ( / ) ( /16 / 19 Wind Wind 3.3 9 13 -9 17 100 2450 / 1357.5 / 12.9% 100 65.1% 3.1 (100 ) Wind Wind 9 13 -9 17 LME3 WTI 3.3% 3.2% 1.6% 3.3% LME3 4.3% 1.8% 5.0% 1.3% 21.0 23.0 25.0 27.0 29.0 31.0 33.0 35.0 37.0 39.0 41.0 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1.0 6.0 11.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 03-26 04-02 04-09 04-16 04-23 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 ( ) ( ) ( ) 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 2021-04 2021-06 2021-08 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 （17 / 19 LME3 Wind Wind 4 55 60 65 70 75 80 04-30 05-07 05-14 05-21 05-28 06-04 06-11 06-18 06-25 07-02 07-09 07-16 07-23 07-30 08-06 08-13 08-20 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 ( ): WTI ( / ) 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 03-19 04-02 04-16 04-30 05-14 05-28 06-11 06-25 07-09 07-23 08-06 08-20 09-03 09-17 LME3 LME3 ( / ) ( /18 / 19 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50019 / 19 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065