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2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. CM_GBS_950000Ignition Guide:Scenario Planningfor MarketingGartner for Marketers2 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingTable of Contents01 02 03Scenario Planning StepsA. Identify implications B. Outline actionsC. Document and communicateCorporate Scenarios TemplateOverview3 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingOverviewCMOs can use this step-by-step Gartner Ignition Guide to: Identify the impact of different corporate scenarios on the marketing function Plan for changes to the functions current strategy and initiatives Communicate the scenario-specific actionsThis guide is tailor-made for short-cycle projects that take between a few weeks to a month to execute and may not require extensive planning to get started or monitoring after launch.Before you begin, use the Corporate Scenarios Template on the next page to share the corporate scenario planning exercise results with your marketing leaders and kick-start functional scenario planning. Then, you can establish timelines for conducting the functional scenario planning process.4 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingScenario Storyline TemplateFill in the Corporate Scenarios Template below to help complete your scenario planning exercise.1Scenario TitleRetain the title from the corporate scenario planning exercise to ensure consistency.2Scenario NarrativeBriefly outline the details of the scenario as outlined in the corporate scenario planning exercise.3Time Horizon and LocationDescribe the geography and time horizon of the scenario.4ActorsList the names of all the actors in the scenario and their roles.5What HappensList all the actions and reactions the actors might undertake. How will they interact with each other in the scenario?6Business ImplicationsList all the business implications of the scenario occurring. 2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. CM_GBS_950000Step A: Identify implications of corporate scenarios for the marketing function6 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingStep AIdentify implications of corporate scenarios for the marketing functionDetermine implications of corporate scenarios for the marketing strategy.Task A1 Establish the scenario planning teamSelect a team that brings together individuals from all relevant stakeholder groups within the marketing function (that is, customer experience leader, market insights leader, multichannel marketing leader, digital commerce leader, marketing technology leader, cross-functional peers, etc.) and the in-house team representing third-party vendors to lead the scenario planning exercise. Then, ask the team to review the corporate planning scenarios as prework.Gartner advice Invite representatives from other corporate functions and trusted third-party service providers, like marketing agencies and vendors, to provide their insights and experience. Diversity of participants often brings in various perspectives that reveal interdependencies and domino effects across the marketing function.7 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingFigure 1. Gather multiple perspectives to cascade corporate scenariosCross-functional leaders (strategy, finance, IT, HR)“ To mitigate the impact of cross-functional dependency, we will have to .”Marketing insights leader“ Scenario X will have an adverse impact on competition in the market .”Cascade corporate scenariosMultichannel marketing leader“ During scenario X we can drive customer retention by focusing on specific channels .”CMO“ Based on the budget and resourcing availability, the following mitigation and actions would be feasible .”Digital commerce leader“ Scenario X will create a greater impetus to drive more sales from online channels, reducing selling costs .”Customer experience leader“ Scenario X is likely to negatively impact customer satisfaction. We need to .”Source: GartnerStep A8 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingTask A2 Determine scenario implications for the marketing functionIdentify the implications of each corporate scenario both strategic and operational in terms of impact on strategy (i.e., what should be prioritized in terms of marketing support) and operational plans (i.e., how to efficiently match marketing services to demand in different scenarios).Task A3 Prioritize the implications to consider for each scenarioRate the possible implications of a scenario on their likelihood, the degree of impact and the speed at which it might impact (i.e., velocity) to prioritize the critical ones.Task A4 Outline the risks and opportunities of each scenarioReview scenario implications to identify risk and opportunities that can materialize for the marketing function.Gartner advice Evaluating and prioritizing implications through a “velocity lens” ensures action plans are timely and impactful. Without considering the speed at which a scenario might impact, the scenario planning team may propose changes with extended lag times that are misaligned to the timing of scenario impact.ESSENTIALESSENTIALStep A 2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. CM_GBS_950000Step B: Outline actions that address risks and capture opportunities of each scenario10 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingFigure 2. Adjust strategy and goals for each scenarioScenario A tariff-free trade agreement cannot be reached between the U.K. and the EU.Adjusting strategy for scenario Adjust budget and revenue expectations, reflecting the reduction of expected trade between the U.K. and the EU.Source: Gartner Decrease marketing budget by 20%. Increase market penetration outside the EU by 10%. Reduce marketing activation within the EU. Focus customer acquisition efforts in markets XXX and YYY outside the EU.Adjusting goals for scenarioActions to takeStep BOutline actions that address risks and capture opportunities of each scenario11 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingTask B2 Create a mechanism to monitor corporate scenario triggersCapture and monitor triggers identified for each corporate scenario during the corporate scenario planning exercise and share the business performance indicators that other functional and business leaders should monitor.Gartner advice Create a marketing early warning dashboard by adopting data-proven business performance indicators and align similar indicators with strategy, finance, HR and other critical functions to establish an enterprisewide predictor dashboard.Task B1 Determine actions for the most likely and impactful scenariosBased on the implications, risks and opportunities identified in the previous step for each critical scenario, adjust marketing strategy and goals to outline actions (i.e., strategic decisions and operational plans) that the marketing team should execute in the short term and long term.ESSENTIALESSENTIALStep B 2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. CM_GBS_950000Step C: Document and communicate the action plan13 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingStep CTask C1 Document the actions associated with each scenarioDocument actions to deploy under different corporate scenarios to create a future-proof marketing strategy.Gartner advice Marketing leaders can make the scenario planning exercise pragmatic by leading their teams to define actions the team must either start or stop doing right now to prepare for future scenarios. Also assign action items (for example, improve the quality of digital interactions for attracting prospective customers from a high-segment market) to specific staff members in the action plan.Document and communicate the action planUsing the following two tasks, you can input and effectively communicate the actions to undertake for the most impactful and likely scenarios to the team, ensuring they can act confidently when scenarios occur.ESSENTIAL14 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingMarketing actions to address implications of the scenarioFill in this Marketing Action Plan template to help complete this task.Criticality of implications for finance function Implications Action plan Proposed ownerDeadline and cadence for tracking progress Key deliverable Success metricsStep C15 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingStep CTask C2 Communicate the scenario plan to the marketing teamCreate a compelling summary to effectively communicate the key details of the action plan to the marketing team. Tailor your message to build commitment and gain buy-in from different employee segments.Gartner advice Assess the influence and resistance of key stakeholders and employ the appropriate communication method to inform, reassure or persuade them based on their needs.16 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingFigure 3. Narrative creation guidelinesConsider these questions as you create a comprehensive narrative for staff members that explains the rationale behind the chosen business strategy and the urgency to act on it.Whatis the change in strategy? What does this mean for our team? What will be the cost of inaction?Whyhas XXX strategy been chosen over YYY?Howwill the changes and new strategy be implemented?Whenwill the initiatives be implemented? Will there be any near-term changes or will it take place over a period of time?What are the obvious next steps?What should be the goal or outcome of our discussion?Source: GartnerStep C17 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingStep CTo further improve the scenario planning process, review your performance by: Gathering feedback from the team Updating the business performance triggers as you continue monitoring the events for long-term scenariosReview your performance18 Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for MarketingGartner for Marketers provides the objective, expert advice and proven tools you need to seize the right opportunities with clarity and confidence and stay ahead of the trends that matter.Benchmark your performance with data-driven insights. Prioritize investments and areas of improvement. Execute your mission-critical priorities with speed and confidence.Gartner is the worlds leading research and advisory company and a member of the S&P 500. We equip business leaders with indispensable insights, advice and tools to achieve their mission-critical priorities today and build the successful organizations of tomorrow.Our unmatched combination of expert-led, practitioner sourced and data-driven research steers clients toward the right decisions on the issues that matter most. Were trusted as an objective resource and critical partner by more than 15,000 enterprises in more than 100 countries across all major functions, in every industry and enterprise size.To learn more, visit Gartner for MarketersGartner for Marketers Gartner for Marketers clients have access to additional resources and tools to help them achieve their top priorities. For more information on scenario planning, contact us to learn about becoming a client or call 1 855 476 0138.
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