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请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明 industryId investSuggestion(investSuggestionChange relatedReport 800G AI 2023-06-06 emailAuthor S0190520070002 S0190521090001 S0190523070005 assAuthor summary AI 1.6T Scaling Laws Open AI AGI B100 2024Q2 800G 1.6T GPU 1.6T 1 2.5 4-5 AI 800G-1.6T DSP/SerDes 1.6T 2024Q3 OSFP MSA 1.6T 8*200G 200G 1.6T 200G PAM4 EML 200G VCSEL Marvell 1.6T DSP 3nm 200G SerDes 200G SerDes 2024Q3 1.6T 1.6T 200G SerDes 200G SerDes 1.6T EML 1 EML 1.6T CW 2 1.6T 200G EML 200G VCSEL EML CW 3 AI IO 224G 112G 4 TEC 1.6T Scaling Laws AGI 2024 Q2 B100 AI 1.6T 200G DSP/SerDes 2024Q3 1.6T EML AI title 1.6T createTime1 2024 02 01 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-2-1 AI 1.6T.-4-1.1 Scaling Laws.-4-1.2 GPU 1.6T.-6-1.3 1.6T B100.-6-2 SerDes 1.6T 2024Q3.-8-2.1 1.6T 8*200G.-8-2.2 200G EML.-9-2.3 200G DSP.-10-2.4 200G SerDes 1.6T 2024Q3.-11-3.-14-3.1 1.6T.-14-3.2 200G EML CW.-16-3.3.-17-3.4 TEC.-20-4.-23-5.-24-1 OpenAI Scaling Laws.-4-2.-5-3.-5-4/GPU.-6-5.-6-6.-7-7 OSFP MSA 1.6T.-8-8 OSFP OSFP-XD.-8-9.-8-10 200G.-9-11 Lumentum 1.6T 200G.-10-12 200G EML 800G.-10-13 100G PAM4 VCSEL.-10-14 200G DSP.-11-15 Marvell DSP.-11-16 200G/PAM-4 DSP PHY 100G.-12-17 200G SerDes 1.6T.-12-18 200G SerDes 2025.-13-19 2022-2028 PIC 2023.-14-20.-15-21 8 CMOS.-15-22.-16-23.-16-24.-16-25 100mW CW 2024 1.-17-26.-17-27 IO.-18-WUBYvMmRmPnMsMtQmRqPqR9PcM7NsQoOpNmQjMmMoMjMrRpNaQoOyRxNrMsOuOnRmR 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-3-28 Molex OSFP 1600 224G.-19-29 Molex 224G.-19-30 MPO.-19-31 MPO 2021).-20-32 SENKO 1.6T MPO.-20-33.-21-34 MicroTEC.-22-1.-7-2 1.6T.-13-3.-18-4().-20-5.-21-6 1.6T.-23-7 2024-01-25.-24-请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-4-1 AI 1.6T 1.1 Scaling Laws Scaling Laws Scaling Laws OpenAI 2020 OpenAI Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models early stopping 1 OpenAI Scaling Laws Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models DeepMind 2022 Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models FLOPs model size training tokens FLOPs token 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-5-2 Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models Loss Loss model size FLOPS Scaling Laws AGI GPU 3 Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-6-1.2 GPU 1.6T B100 GPU 2024 2 800G/1.6T semianalysis AI GPU 2024 B100 B40 2025 X100 X40 H100 InfiniBand B100 800G 1.6T X100 1.6T 2025 1.6T GPU 2025 AI 4-5 400G 19 22 800G AI 1.6T 24 2 4/GPU 5 Semianalysis Arista 1.3 1.6T B100 1.6T/FiberMall 400G-800G-1.6T-3.2T 10W 15W 20W 30W 800G 1.6T 2 15W 20W AI 1.6T 800G 2-3 G 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-7-6 FiberMall G W pJ/bit B100 B100 1.6T 1:2.5 H100/800G 16K GPU GPU H100 ConnectX-7 400G TOR 400G AOC/DAC 800G 800G AI 1 1 800G H100 GPU 2.5 1 B100 ConnectX-8 800G TOR 800G AOC/DAC 1.6T H100 800G 1.6T B100 2.5:1 1.6T 800G 1 H100(CX-7 400G B100(CX-8 800G POD 8 8 POD 8 8 32 32 2048 2048 GPU 8 8 GPU 16384 16384 TOR 400G/800G AOC/DAC 16384 16384 TOR 1.6T/800G 8192 8192 1.6T/800G 8192 8192 1.6T/800G 8192 8192 1.6T/800G 8192 8192 1.6T/800G 8192 8192 1.6T 800G 40960 40960 GPU 1.6T 800G 1:2.5 1:2.5 Semianalysis NVIDIA 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-8-2 SerDes 1.6T 2024Q3 2.1 1.6T 8*200G OSFP MSA 1.6T OSFP MSA 1.6T 100G 100G 200G DR16 DR8 4FR2 ZR2 4FR4 2FR4 2FR8 FR8 8 800G 1.6T DR FR SR 1.6T AI 7 OSFP MSA 1.6T OSFP MSA OSFP OSFP-XD 8*200G QSFP-DD OSFP OSFP-XD 8*200G 200G OFSP 8 OSFP OSFP-XD 9 FiberMall FiberMall 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-9-2.2 200G EML 200G OSFP-XD DR16 DR8 200G 1.6T OSFP-XD DR8+1.6T OSFP-XD DR8/8+10 200G OSFP MSA 200G PAM4 EML 8*200Gb PAM4 1.6T 200G PAM4 EML AI 1.6T Lumentum EML 200G PAM4 EML 24 200G PAM4 CWDM4 EML 1.6T 200G EML 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-10-11 Lumentum 1.6T 200G Lumentum VCSEL 100G 200G VCSEL VCSEL AFCD-V84LP 112Gb/s PAM4 EML AI 1.6T 12 200G EML 800G 13 100G PAM4 VCSEL Mitsubishielectric Broadcom 2.3 200G DSP Marvell 5nm 200G DSP 1.6T BCM85822 BCM85821 200G/lane DSP 800G Line side 4*226G PAM4 200G Client side 8*106G PAM4 100G 200G DSP SerDes 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-11-14 200G DSP Broadcom DSP Marvell DSP 23 1.6T NOV A PAM4 DSP Marvell 200G DSP 1.6T DSP 5nm 3nm 15 Marvell DSP Marvell 2.4 200G SerDes 1.6T 2024Q3 1.6T SerDes 200G SerDes 2024Q3 1.6T DSP 8*200G 16*100G DSP gearbox 200G SerDes 1.6T 8 8 PHY gearbox 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-12-16 200G/PAM-4 DSP PHY 100G Broadcom 17 200G SerDes 1.6T Broadcom 200G SerDes 1.6T AI 200G SerDes 800G 1.6T 1RU 2RU 51.2T 64 800G 2RU 102.4T 64 1.6T 200G SerDes 2024 Q3-Q4 2025 AI SerDes SerDes 2-4 200G SerDes 2024 Q3-Q4 Marvell 23 10 200G 200G SerDes Mellanox 2025 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-13-18 200G SerDes 2025 FiberMall 200G SerDes EML 1.6T 200G SerDes 1.6T 200G PAM4 EML 2024 1.6T 2025 200G SerDes AI 1.6T AI 800G-1.6T 4-5 2 1.6T 1.6T 2 1.6T 2023/03 2023 OFC 1.6T OSFP-XD DR8+0-70 23W 2 2023/03 2023 OFC 800G/1.6T TFF FA PM AWG 2023/03 2023 OFC 200Gbps 1.6T 4XFR2 OSFP-DD 4XSN 16X100Gbps 4x400G FR2 400G FR2 1291nm 1311nm 2 200Gb 2023/03 1.6T OSFP-XD DR8 OSFP MSA CMIS OSFP-XD 16 100Gb/s 8 200Gb/s 2023/12 1.6T 3.2T 2024/01 1.6T 2024 OFC LiveDemo 2023/03 2023 OFC 200G PAM4 EML 200G 1.6T 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-14-3.DSP AI 3.1 1.6T EML VCSEL 1.6T AI 400G 800G 100G VCSEL EML 1.6T AI EML CMOS Yole Group PIC 2022 0.68 2028 6.13 2022-2028 44%1 800G 2 I/O CPO 19 2022-2028 PIC 2023 Yole 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-15-PDK EPDA Foundry Fab Fab 20 21 8 CMOS 45nm 100nm 8 12 PSM4,PSM8 1 2 FA COB COC 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-16-22 23 3.2 200G EML CW 200G EML VCSEL 1.6T 200G EML 200G VCSEL EML CW CW EML VCSEL CW DFB CW DFB CW 50-100mW 24 Intel 2023 3 Coherent 1300 nm CW DFB 100mW 400G 1.6T 500m 2km 2024 1 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-17-100mW CW DFB 400G DR4 1 800G/1.6t 25 100mW CW 2024 1 3.3 AI AI 26 Amphenol Amphenol 2022/请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-18-1 1 1 3、IO 1.6T 112G IO 1:1 Molex 224G 1.6T IO 112G 27 IO QSFP-DD MSA 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-19-224G 224G 28 Molex OSFP 1600 224G 29 Molex 224G Molex Molex/FC/PC FC PC 30 MPO 1.6T MPO T&S Communications US Conec NTT-AT Senko Siemon Amphenol Suzhou Agix Sumitomo Electric Nissin Kasei Molex Panduit 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-20-SENKO 100G/1.6T MPO 31 MPO 2021)32 SENKO 1.6T MPO QYResearch SENKO 3.4 TEC 1 15%15%COB/COC COB/COC(submount)4、()2021 1-9 1773.63 32.37%892.88 16.30%TEC 787.43 14.37%316.28 5.77%221.22 4.04%3991.44 72.86%2020 2638.60 31.67%1294.25 15.53%TEC 1091.90 13.10%614.39 7.37%449.64 5.40%6088.78 73.07%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-21-400G 800G 2023 OFC 200G 2 LiNbO3 60-90Gbaud InP 130Gbaud LiNbO3 130 Gbaud 33 5、基础材料 III-V 族 薄膜铌酸锂 硅 氮化硅 无源器 件 调制器 偏振器 件 激光器 探测器 放大器 CMOS III-V 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-22-3 TEC TEC Micro TEC TEC TEC Micro TEC Micro TEC TEC:0.35mm 0.4mm TEC 3mm*3mm TEC 34 MicroTEC 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-23-4+1.6T 2024 B100 800G 1.6T 1.6T 8*200G 16*100G 200G SerDes 2024 Q3-Q4 1.6T 2024 1.6T 2025 B100 200G PAM4 EML 1.6T 200G VCSEL 1.6T EML VCSEL 1.6T 6 1.6T Lumentum Coherent Fabrinet/Coherent DSP/Serdes Marvell Credo Marvell TEC Wind AI 1.6T 800G AI 800G 1.6T 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-24-2024 400G 800G 2025 LPO 1.6T GaN PA 6G SiC 112G 2025 7 2024-01-25()()ESP P/E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 300308 118.35 950 1.52 2.68 6.36 8.73 78 44 19 14 300394 98.98 391 1.02 1.67 3.04 4.25 97 59 33 23 300502 54.60 388 1.27 0.92 1.85 2.58 43 59 29 21 003031 70.48 227 0.46 1.55 2.55 3.51 152 45 28 20 688668 47.68 47 1.70 0.85 3.01 3.80 28 56 16 13 Wind 5 1 1.6T 1.6T 2 3 AI AI AI AI 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-25-12 300 50 500 15%5%15%-5%5%-5%/1934 15a-6/36 15 200135 6 SK 32 01-08 100020 5001 T2 52 518035
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