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从 新 能源 消 纳 问题看 火 电 调节 价 值 相关研究：2024.04.09 1-2 46.61GW 2024.04.02 行业评级：增持%1 3 12 4-2 18 4 8 3 300 分析师：孙菲 证书编号：S0500524010002 Tel：(8621)50293587 Email：88 10 2030 40%20%2030 2045 2045 2060 2060 2023 9.22 6.7%2024 6%2023 7 13.4 2013 2023 36%12.4%2023 101.7%148.1%2 2024 2 4.6pct 4.8pct 95%90%4.6pct 5.5pct 95%2 20%IRR7.99%0%5%IRR 1.33pct 0%10%IRR 2.58pct 30%-35%5%-10%25%-30%15%20%-25%20%15%-20%证 券研 究报告 2024 年 4 月 17 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 环 保公 用行业 深度 25%10%-15%5%0.018 2023 22.3 56.2%4.95 2022 0.5 2023 278 2019 114%2019 0.43pct 1.9%254 91.4%2024 3 2024 2 0YBYuNqNsRpOqOoNrMqPqR9P8QaQpNoOsQrNlOqQmQiNrQvMaQrQsMuOtPqQwMqNrM 1 正文目录 1.3 2.5 2.1.5 2.2.7 2.3.10 3.13 3.1 2.13 3.2.17 3.3.20 4.24 5.24 图表目录 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.8 7.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.10 16.13 17.14 18.14 19.14 20.14 21.14 22.14 23.15 2 24.15 25.15 26.16 27.16 28.16 29.16 30 2020 2023.17 31.17 32.21 33.21 34.21 35.21 36.22 37 2023/.22 38.23 39.23 40 2022 2023.24 1.3 2.7 3.11 4.12 5.12 6.13 7 30%.18 8 25%.18 9 20%.19 10 20%.19 11 20%.20 12.22 aAs1y74l+CDOG+xJXNcTvsiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfaZwVhlDWYt2zJAtZlIJ0E8 3 1 2021 3 1 1 4 2030 2045 2060 1 2030 CCUS 2030 40%20%25%2030 1.2+2 2030 2045 CCUS 10 3 2045 2060 5 2 2 2.1 2023 9.22 6.7%1278 11.5%1.1pct 60745 6.5%5.3pct 16694 12.2%7.8pct 13524 0.9%12.9pct 2024 1-2 11%2024 2023-2024 2024 9.8 6%6 3 Wind 2023 7 13.4 2013 2023 11 6436 2023-2024 2024 14.5 2023 1 4 5 Wind Wind 7 2 2023M1-11 2022A 2021 A 2020A 2019 A 2018 A 2017 A 2016 A 2015 A 2014 A 2013 A 133914 128964 119162 107700 105321 99379 92599 85898 79773 79512 77536 37420 36490 33886 31899 29791 28119 27523 25396 23028 22074 21503 30916 29687 24929 24332 24344 23123 21846 20799 19267 19207 18620 23406 22278 21619 19978 18671 16853 16297 14743 14164 13614 12891 19536 19424 16856 15472 15556 15065 13713 12236 15469 15053 14915 12537 12003 10515 10013 9185 8519 8148 7653 7343 7061 6801 7266 7022 7058 6791 6483 6301 5902 5635 5439 5240 5352 133860 128890 119095 107629 105265 99446 92877 86172 79984 79729 77636 30984 31154 28507 27230 25746 24254 23835 22327 20883 19734 19491 30337 29045 24178 23810 23316 22416 21354 20231 18636 18495 17957 23119 21917 21141 19542 18319 16837 15975 16788 13777 13306 12585 18284 17715 16462 15640 15614 15310 14124 13117 17593 18069 17309 17739 17073 14279 13437 11642 10715 9622 9085 8097 7780 7773 8067 7962 7857 7341 7108 6881 6251 5905 5582 5500 5513-54-74-67-71-56 67 278 274 211 217 100-6436-5336-5379-4669-4045-3865-3688-3069-2145-2340-2012-579-642-751-522-1028-707-492-568-631-712-663-287-361-478-436-352-16-322 2045-387-308-306-1252-1709-394 168 58 245 411 881 2124 3016 2394 5202 5070 3764 3424 2457 2196 1474 1432 754 719 972 801 940 799 550 625 580 349 270 143 260 161 Wind 2.2 2013 2023 2919.7GW 441.3 609.5GW 36%2023 89091 8090 2940 12.4%8 6 7 Wind Wind 8 9 Wind Wind 10 11 Wind Wind 9 1 2023 101.7%148.1%12 13 14 Wind Wind 10 2023 6 2030 40%20%2030 2045 2045 2060 2.3 15 11 3 2-3/12 4(FP%min-1)/(kW-1)-100 60%90%20003000 10006000/-30 75%85%50100 35005000-100 25%85%1000 20000-50000-100 95%510 1000020000 100%30 95%50150-50%80%25 80%20 3090 100%15 60%20 30004000 50%70%5-75%-/20%3 95%-20004000 5 5 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 2 4 3 3 2 4 1 5 1 5 3 5 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 5 5 5 4 2 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 2 3 5 1 13 6 100 50 100 0%100%0%3 3.1 2 2024 2 2 95%90%2024 2 93.7%4.6pct 4.8pct 91.2%7.2pct 6.8pct 94.3%2.9pct 3.6pct 96.3%3.4pct 3.5pct 100%88.4%9.4pct 10pct 99.3%0.7pct 0.6pct 2 90%85%16 14 17 18 19 20 21 22 15 2 95%2024 2 93.4%4.6pct 5.5pct 93%5.4pct 6pct 92%5.2pct 6.4pct 95.1%4.4pct 4.8pct 100%93.4%4.4pct 5.6pct 97.8%1.6pct 2pct 2 90%23 24 25 16 26 27 28 29 2 2 5069 6000 2023 78%101.7%148.1%17 30 2020 2023 Wind 3.2 1200 0.35/3.4/W 30%/25%/20%7.20%/7.56%/7.99%0%5%30%/25%/20%1.07/1.18/1.33pct 0%10%30%/25%/20%2.12/2.32/2.58pct 30%35%31 18 7 30%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%()1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200()1200 1140 1080 1020 960 900 840 780 720 660 600()68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000()20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400()47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600()24000 22800 21600 20400 19200 18000 16800 15600 14400 13200 12000()23520 22344 21168 19992 18816 17640 16464 15288 14112 12936 11760()7285 6921 6556 6192 5828 5464 5099 4735 4371 4007 3642()47 44 42 40 37 35 33 30 28 26 23()820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820()2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 IRR 7.20%6.13%5.08%4.05%3.04%2.04%1.00%-0.12%-1.26%-2.49%-3.81%IRR(pct)0.00-1.07-2.12-3.15-4.16-5.17-6.21-7.32-8.46-9.69-11.01 8 25%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%()1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200()1200 1140 1080 1020 960 900 840 780 720 660 600()68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000()17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000()51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000()24000 22800 21600 20400 19200 18000 16800 15600 14400 13200 12000()23520 22344 21168 19992 18816 17640 16464 15288 14112 12936 11760()7285 6921 6556 6192 5828 5464 5099 4735 4371 4007 3642()47 44 42 40 37 35 33 30 28 26 23()820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820()2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 IRR 7.56%6.37%5.23%4.13%3.05%1.98%0.87%-0.30%-1.47%-2.73%-4.07%IRR(pct)0.00-1.18-2.32-3.43-4.51-5.57-6.69-7.85-9.03-10.28-11.63 19 9 20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%()1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200()1200 1140 1080 1020 960 900 840 780 720 660 600()68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000()13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600()54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400()24000 22800 21600 20400 19200 18000 16800 15600 14400 13200 12000()23520 22344 21168 19992 18816 17640 16464 15288 14112 12936 11760()7285 6921 6556 6192 5828 5464 5099 4735 4371 4007 3642()47 44 42 40 37 35 33 30 28 26 23()820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820()2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 IRR 7.99%6.67%5.41%4.21%3.06%1.91%0.72%-0.49%-1.69%-2.97%-4.33%IRR(pct)0.00-1.33-2.58-3.78-4.94-6.08-7.27-8.48-9.69-10.96-12.33 20%7.99%5%10%25%30%15%20%25%20%15%20%25%10%15%10 20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0.35/7.99%6.67%5.41%4.21%3.06%1.91%0.72%-0.49%-1.69%-2.97%-4.33%5%6.67%5.47%4.33%3.23%2.15%1.03%-0.13%-1.26%-2.45%-3.71%-5.03%10%5.41%4.33%3.28%2.26%1.21%0.11%-0.96%-2.07%-3.24%-4.47%-5.73%15%4.21%3.23%2.26%1.27%0.23%-0.79%-1.82%-2.90%-4.06%-5.24%-6.44%20%3.06%2.15%1.21%0.23%-0.73%-1.69%-2.71%-3.78%-4.89%-6.01%-7.17%25%1.91%1.03%0.11%-0.79%-1.69%-2.64%-3.65%-4.68%-5.73%-6.81%-7.92%20 11 20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0.35/3.4/W 7.99%6.67%5.41%4.21%3.06%1.91%0.72%-0.49%-1.69%-2.97%-4.33%5%7.81%6.50%5.25%4.05%2.90%1.75%0.56%-0.65%-1.87%-3.16%-4.53%10%7.61%6.31%5.06%3.88%2.73%1.57%0.37%-0.84%-2.06%-3.37%-4.75%15%7.39%6.10%4.86%3.68%2.54%1.37%0.16%-1.04%-2.28%-3.61%-5.00%20%7.15%5.86%4.64%3.46%2.32%1.14%-0.07%-1.28%-2.54%-3.89%-5.28%25%6.87%5.60%4.38%3.21%2.07%0.88%-0.34%-1.55%-2.83%-4.20%-5.61%3.3 5264 4880 4252 4723 2023 4466 76 2015 2030 2030 2030 2045 21 32 33 Wind Wind 34 35 Wind Wind 2023 70%68.1%68.8%68.6%5%0.018 5%0.018 22 36 37 2023/Wind 12-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%(/230.2 244.5 258.9 273.3 287.7 302.1 316.5 330.8 345.2(1046 1112 1177 1243 1308 1373 1439 1504 1570(/0.288 0.306 0.323 0.341 0.359 0.377 0.395 0.413 0.431(/-0.072-0.054-0.036-0.018 0.000 0.018 0.036 0.054 0.072 Wind 2022 2021 12 2023 11 10 2024 1 2024 23 38 2023 278 2019 114%2019 0.43pct 1.9%254 91.4%39 2024 3 2023 2023 56.2%22.3 4.95 2022 0.5 24 40 2022 2023 4 2024 2 5 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明
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