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1 2021 2020 A 1 2 21-23 A 1 2 1 2 A 22 10 24 2/70.1%/3.5%/36.8%/1 ROE/2 15%3 18-22 A 918 32 DCF DDM 1 ROE 2&2021 A 4.0%2 扫码获取更多服务.4 1.1.4 1.2.7.8 2.1.9 2.2.12 2.3.14.18.19 1.4 2 GDP.5 3.5 4 PE TTM.5 5 2021-2023%.5 6%.6 7.6 8%.6 9 2023%.6 10 10%.7 11 LPR%.7 12%.7 13%.7 14 2023.8 15.8 16%.8 17.9 18 A.10 19 A CFO/.10 20 A/%.10 21 A%.10 ZXFUuNnQoNqRtNtQsPrOpO9PaO7NtRqQoMmQeRmMrNfQmNnP6MmNqOvPrRtQxNnOnR 3 扫码获取更多服务 22 A/%.11 23 A%.12 24 A PE TTM.12 25.13 26“”.13 27 A.14 28.14 29 A.15 30 A VS.15 31 A%.15 32 A%.16 33&.16 34 A.17 35%.17 36 PE TTM.18 37&PE.18 38 A.18 4 扫码获取更多服务 2021/DCF/DDM 1 1.1/2020 A 2008 2013-2015 TMT 2017-2021/1 2 GDP 2020 10%5%+H6XtQjmWp6wJP+O2faDysiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfYAcuZl6FSyP16iAiiQb7OZ 5 扫码获取更多服务 2 GDP 3 Wind 2021 2023 Wind 2021 2023 1 10%2 Capex 3 2020 2017 2017 2020-2021 PE 50X 2021 2021-2023-11.5%-14.1%-17.2%4 PE TTM 5 2021-2023%Wind 2015/1/1-2023/12/31 Wind J 1 2 Dogs of the Dow 1992-2011 10.8%500 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2015-032015-092016-032016-092017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-032023-09GDP%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2015-022015-082016-022016-082017-022017-082018-022018-082019-022019-082020-022020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-082024-02%0204060802015-012015-082016-032016-102017-052017-122018-072019-022019-092020-042020-112021-062022-012022-082023-032023-10+1-1-40%-30%-20%-10%0%6 扫码获取更多服务 2021 1 2015-2016 2018 2021-2023 2 2017-2021 2021-2023 300 21.7%19.5%15.5%2024 8.3%5.2pct 2023 89.8%248.6 6%7 Wind 1 300 2 2024/3/29 Wind 2024/3/29 2014-2023 15-20%2023 4.7%4.0%1.3%8%9 2023%Wind Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 300 050100150200250300 0%5%10%15%20%25%0%1%2%3%4%5%7 扫码获取更多服务 1.2 2021-2023 A 1 2 2024 2023 2024 2 5 LPR 25BP 10 10%11 LPR%Wind Wind 500 2000-2007 2009-2017 6%2%100 00 2020 2021 12%13%Bloomberg 2023 12 Bloomberg 2023 12 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2010-012010-122011-112012-102013-092014-082015-072016-062017-052018-042019-032020-022021-012021-122022-112023-1010 3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-021 LPR 5 LPR0%2%4%6%8%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%200020012003200520062008201020112013201520162018202020212023 10-0.6%-0.3%0.0%0.3%0.6%0.9%1.2%1.5%-120%-90%-60%-30%0%30%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212023 10)8 扫码获取更多服务 2023 3 1 2 3 14 2023 1 2 1 2 2013 2014 1 2 ROE 8%/ROE 2014 ROE 15 16%Wind Wind 1 2 3 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.220102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 4%6%8%10%12%14%20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023+9 扫码获取更多服务 2.1&1 2 VS VS 1 2 3/1 2 Cash cow 17 BCG 10 扫码获取更多服务 TOP3 2009 2017 2013-2018 2018 1300 CR3 2018 3%,2018 2021 2017-2022 1.6%4.8%1.6%2018-2022/1.3 1.0 0.9 18 A 19 A CFO/Wind Wind 2018/30%2018 80%100%20 A/%21 A%Wind Wind 2021 100%A 1 2/3 4 365 1 1/0.02.04.06.08.02010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(1.0)(0.5)0.00.51.01.52.02010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 11 扫码获取更多服务 2018 2021 300 2018 10%+2022 2018 2019 10%2020-2022 13X 18X 2022 66%2017 2019 12X 2022 22 A/%2009 2009 2017 2010/12/31 88.5 67.3 21.3 39.5 6.3%81.9 54.3 27.5 72.9 0.9%2011/12/31 87.8 67.3 20.6 47.2 5.2%80.4 54.3 26.1 75.0 0.6%2012/12/31 73.2 56.0 17.1 33.0 7.3%79.4 54.3 25.1 43.3 5.6%2013/12/31 36.4 28.0 8.4 15.0 9.1%39.4 27.2 12.2 23.8 5.0%2014/12/31 28.0 21.6 6.4 13.4 8.3%39.0 27.2 11.9 25.8 4.6%2015/12/31 13.9 10.8 3.2 12.0 1.8%15.2 10.9 4.3 18.2-2.2%2016/12/31 13.8 10.8 3.1 8.8 6.4%15.0 10.9 4.1 13.5 1.5%2017/12/31 13.7 10.8 3.0 10.5 4.5%14.8 10.9 3.9 14.8 0.0%20.5 16.9 3.6 23.1-1.9%2018/12/31 13.5 10.8 2.7 7.5 11.8%14.5 10.9 3.6 8.7 10.3%20.0 16.9 3.1 14.9 5.7%2019/12/31 13.0 10.8 2.2 6.9 15.9%12.8 9.9 2.9 9.1 8.4%19.3 16.9 2.4 15.3 5.6%2020/12/31 12.5 10.8 1.7 7.7 16.2%12.3 9.9 2.4 12.5-0.4%18.5 16.9 1.6 13.4 10.6%2021/12/31 12.0 10.8 1.2 8.5 16.3%11.1 9.9 1.2 14.3-10.8%18.1 16.9 1.2 16.8 3.3%2022/12/31 11.4 10.8 0.6 7.1 46.6%10.5 9.9 0.6 11.2-5.3%17.6 16.9 0.7 13.1 26.6%2023/12/31 10.8 10.8 9.0 20.4%9.9 9.9 9.3 6.4%16.9 16.9 14.4 17.5%Wind 1 2024/3/29 2 3 2023/2019 7%2022 8.5%2021 2022 10 5 2022 10 2024 2 70.1%3.5%36.8%300 0.7%12 扫码获取更多服务 23 A%24 A PE TTM Wind+1 2023 Wind 2024/3/29 2.2/PE PE ROE ROE 10%ROE 1/2 15%+Capex/+50%3 0%2%4%6%8%10%2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 8101214161820222021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01 13 扫码获取更多服务 25 ROE ROE 10%ROE 10%ROE/0.9 10%+Capex/(+)20%30%15%50%/35%3 3 2018-2022 1 ROE 2023 2 3 ROE 26 100%or 2018-2022 A 918 32 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 3 1.5%-8.0%4.0%14 扫码获取更多服务 27 A 1996 1776 3.7%2011 148 4.3%1998 909 6.7%1999 79 4.8%2020 65 1.5%2004 63 3.9%2014 2191 1.5%2004 123 3.0%2020 41 2.5%2009 90 5.5%2016 39 6.1%2009 82 6.1%2009 1471 3.8%2000 432 4.3%2004 470 5.2%2011 147 3.7%2016 207 4.2%2018 61 5.5%2008 80 2.9%2017 29 1.8%2020 25 1.9%2016 102 8.0%2011 72 4.1%2002 219 3.4%2012 60 6.7%2015 60 3.7%1996 2214 2.5%2020 17 4.5%2007 46 2.6%2011 279 4.6%2020 82 2.7%1996 97 4.0%Wind 1 2018-2022 2 2024/3/29 2.3 DCF DDM 1 CFO 2 3 DCF DDM 1 CFO/1.0 CFO 2 Capex*1-3 0 28-CFO CFO/1 Capex*1-Net Borrowing 0 15 扫码获取更多服务 A 2013 51%83%80%2013 40-50 ROE 30%2013 2020 29 A%ROE%CFO/CFO Capex FCFE 2010/12/31 26%34.2%14.2 1.0 14.7 4.5 0.0 10 2011/12/31 25%14.9%14.6 0.7 10.0 4.5 7.5 13 2012/12/31 51%27.9%30.7 1.5 45.6 12.0-9.3 24 2013/12/31 83%30.4%40.7 1.0 38.7 13.4-4.9 20 2014/12/31 77%28.6%42.2 1.1 47.1 24.9 0.4 23 2015/12/31 97%27.2%44.2 1.3 57.7 22.6 2.7 38 2016/12/31 157%28.3%45.6 1.2 55.5 9.0 4.3 51 2017/12/31 84%31.4%45.1 1.3 56.5 5.3 17.3 69 2018/12/31 97%34.1%50.8 1.0 51.9 5.2 3.8 51 2019/12/31 61%37.4%56.7 0.8 44.2 6.7-0.1 37 2020/12/31 128%32.9%63.7 1.4 88.2 11.6-7.2 69 2021/12/31 92%21.8%48.8 1.2 60.3 39.3 0.8 22 2022/12/31 99%25.4%57.2 1.3 75.7 35.5 3.9 44 Wind 2013-2020/112%380.3 408.7 107%1 2013-2015 100%2 30%0 30 A VS 31 A%Wind Wind=Capex/+0204060802010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 16 扫码获取更多服务 2018-2022 32 15 30%1 2 2018-2022 32 A%Wind 1 50%2 33&DCF 1 ROE 2 1 ROE 1 2 3 ROE g=ROE*(1-Payout ratio)/-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%-100%17 扫码获取更多服务 CAPM 1 A ERP 5 2010-2023-4.0%8.5%2 34 A Wind 1 ROE IRR 2 A 1 ROE 15%2 90%2024 3 5.5%7-9%35%1 10 2 2%3-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ERP-ERP-IRR ROE5%7%9%11%13%5%7%9%11%13%5%7%9%11%13%5%3.1%5.1%7.1%9.1%11.1%3.2%5.3%7.4%9.5%11.5%3.3%5.5%7.7%9.8%11.9%7%2.9%4.9%6.8%8.8%10.7%3.1%5.1%7.2%9.2%11.2%3.3%5.4%7.6%9.6%11.7%9%2.8%4.6%6.5%8.4%10.3%3.0%5.0%7.0%8.9%10.9%3.2%5.4%7.4%9.5%11.6%11%2.6%4.4%6.2%8.1%9.9%2.9%4.8%6.8%8.7%10.6%3.2%5.3%7.3%9.4%11.4%13%2.5%4.2%6.0%7.7%9.5%2.8%4.7%6.6%8.5%10.4%3.1%5.2%7.2%9.3%11.3%15%2.4%4.0%5.7%7.4%9.2%2.7%4.5%6.4%8.2%10.1%3.1%5.1%7.1%9.1%11.1%17%2.3%3.8%5.4%7.1%8.8%2.6%4.4%6.2%8.0%9.8%3.0%5.0%7.0%9.0%11.0%19%2.1%3.6%5.2%6.8%8.5%2.5%4.2%6.0%7.8%9.6%3.0%4.9%6.9%8.9%10.9%21%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%8.1%2.4%4.1%5.8%7.6%9.3%2.9%4.9%6.8%8.8%10.7%23%1.9%3.3%4.8%6.3%7.8%2.4%4.0%5.7%7.4%9.1%2.9%4.8%6.7%8.6%10.6%25%1.8%3.2%4.6%6.0%7.5%2.3%3.9%5.5%7.2%8.9%2.8%4.7%6.6%8.5%10.4%27%1.7%3.0%4.4%5.8%7.2%2.2%3.7%5.3%7.0%8.6%2.8%4.6%6.5%8.4%10.3%29%1.7%2.9%4.2%5.5%6.9%2.1%3.6%5.2%6.8%8.4%2.7%4.6%6.4%8.3%10.2%70%80%90%18 扫码获取更多服务 PE TTM DCF PE 20X 36 PE TTM 1 10 2 2%2021 2023 A 32 4.0%DCF 37&PE 38 A Wind 1 5%-IRR 70%-2 2024/3/29 3 IRR ROE5%7%9%11%13%5%7%9%11%13%5%7%9%11%13%5%22.8 13.7 9.8 7.7 6.3 24.9 15.1 10.8 8.5 7.0 26.9 16.3 11.7 9.2 7.67%24.0 14.4 10.3 8.0 6.5 25.8 15.6 11.2 8.7 7.1 27.3 16.6 11.9 9.3 7.79%25.3 15.1 10.7 8.3 6.8 26.7 16.1 11.5 8.9 7.3 27.8 16.8 12.1 9.5 7.811%26.6 15.8 11.2 8.7 7.1 27.7 16.6 11.8 9.2 7.5 28.3 17.1 12.3 9.6 7.913%28.0 16.6 11.7 9.1 7.3 28.6 17.1 12.2 9.5 7.7 28.8 17.4 12.5 9.7 8.015%29.5 17.4 12.3 9.4 7.6 29.6 17.7 12.6 9.7 7.9 29.3 17.6 12.6 9.9 8.117%31.1 18.3 12.8 9.8 7.9 30.7 18.2 12.9 10.0 8.1 29.8 17.9 12.8 10.0 8.219%32.7 19.2 13.4 10.3 8.3 31.8 18.8 13.3 10.3 8.3 30.3 18.2 13.0 10.1 8.321%34.4 20.1 14.1 10.7 8.6 32.9 19.5 13.7 10.6 8.6 30.9 18.5 13.2 10.3 8.423%36.2 21.1 14.7 11.2 9.0 34.0 20.1 14.1 10.9 8.8 31.4 18.8 13.4 10.4 8.525%38.1 22.1 15.4 11.7 9.3 35.2 20.7 14.6 11.2 9.0 31.9 19.1 13.6 10.6 8.627%40.1 23.2 16.1 12.2 9.7 36.4 21.4 15.0 11.5 9.3 32.5 19.4 13.8 10.7 8.729%42.2 24.4 16.8 12.7 10.1 37.7 22.1 15.5 11.8 9.5 33.1 19.7 14.0 10.9 8.870%80%90%01020304070%80%90%01020304050GLDQZJMDSFYFKDQSBEYHGFSHFZHLZJYXGFFHCMYZGFYLGFLLSHFSMWHDQDSSSGCCPCJCMZJQYSMFSFANBSYJJYGFBDHWXGFZJSPJZSPPLKDGGFYSSWHTWYBDGF PE PE 19 扫码获取更多服务 20 扫码获取更多服务 3 6 15%3 6 5%15%3 6-5%5%3 6 5%21 扫码获取更多服务 C3(C3 021-80234211 201204 1088 5 010-85950438 100005 26 8 0755-86695353 518000 2028 18 1806
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