20240419_华安证券_电力设备行业：新质生产力低空新篇章_41页.pdf

Table_IndNameRptType 行业研究/深度报告 Table_IndRank 2024-04-19 Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010523120004 Table_Report 1.2024-04-01 主要观 点：Table_Summary 24 3 24-30 2035 6 30%30%40%1 0 120 2 120 300 3 300 1000 eVTOL 30 500 eVTOL eVTOL/eVTOL TC eVTOL 2030 eVTOL 500 eVTOL-52%-40%-27%-15%-2%10%4/23 7/23 10/23 1/24 4/24电力设备 沪深300Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/41 证券研究报告 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 2.12 2.1.12 2.1.1.12 2.1.2.13 2.2.14 2.2.1.14 2.2.2 eVTOL.16 2.3.19 2.4.22 3.23 3.1.23 3.1.1.23 3.1.2.23 3.2 EVTOL 2030 市场 规模 超 500 亿.27 3.2.1 eVTOL.27 3.2.2 eVTOL.28 4.30 5.31 5.1.31 5.2.31 5.3.32 5.4.33 5.5.34 5.6.35 5.7.36 5.8.37 5.9.38.39 0YFUuNrMtQpOsMmPqNoRqRbRaO9PpNoOpNnReRnNnReRmOsQaQpOoPxNmPvMxNmNmQTable_CompanyRptType 3/41 1.5 2.6 3.7 4.8 5 2024-2030.9 6.10 7.13 8.13 9.14 10.14 11.15 12.16 13.16 14 EVTOL.17 15 JOBY 2026 EVTOL 0.86/.17 16 EVTOL.17 17 EVTOL.18 18 EVTOL.19 19 EVTOL.19 20.20 21.21 22.21 23.22 24 2027 2500.23 25.23 26.24 27.24 28.25 29.26 30.26 31.27 32+.27 33 2030 EVTOL 500.28 34 EVTOL.29 35 EH216-S.29 36.30 37 YOY.31 38.31 39 YOY.31 40.31 41 YOY.32 Table_CompanyRptType 4/41 42.32 43 YOY.32 44.32 45 YOY.33 46.33 47 YOY.33 48.33 49 YOY.34 50.34 51 YOY.34 52.34 53 YOY.35 54.35 55 YOY.35 56.35 57 YOY.36 58.36 59 YOY.36 60.36 61 YOY.37 62.37 63 YOY.37 64.37 65 YOY.38 66.38 67 YOY.38 68.38 69 YOY.39 70.39 71 YOY.39 72.39 gKwX/UiQdMyCRgLXyDlCPMiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfbKrUyM8dZbdiUKOzS8JZTZ Table_CompanyRptType 5/41 1 2023 12 2024 3 20242030 2030 eVTOL EH216-S 2024 4 7 PC 2023 TC AC eVTOL 2024 1.1 1 2 1000 3000 1 2 3 1 Table_CompanyRptType 6/41+4 1.2 2023 12“”2 Table_CompanyRptType 7/41 2023 11 D E G W 2024 3 5 3 29 1 2 3 3 Table_CompanyRptType 8/41 24-30 2024 3 27 2024-2030 eVTOL eVTOL 4/2024.3 2024-2030 2024.03 2024 2024.03 2023.12;Table_CompanyRptType 9/41 5 2024-2030:SAM eVTOL 200kW 1000kW 1000kW 100-200 400Wh/kg 500Wh/kg 400kW 250kW 500kW/:-:eVTOL:5G;:eVTOL:eVTOL Table_CompanyRptType 10/41 2024 3 27 6 20%5000 23 400 2024 2027 20%600 eVTOL 2024+1000 Table_CompanyRptType 11/41 2024 2024 2024 2023-2025 Table_CompanyRptType 12/41 2 eVTOL(2023-2035)2025(eVTOL)2035 6 30%30%40%2.1 2.1.1 2024 3 29-3D CIM 5G 50 20 Table_CompanyRptType 13/41 2.1.2(ATM)CNS/ATM(CNS)1 ATM 2 ADS-B MLAT ASMGCS ADS-B 3 eVTOL 615 7 8 Table_CompanyRptType 14/41 2.2 eVTOL 2.2.1 2023 6 9 10 ifind Table_CompanyRptType 15/41 2024 1 2024 3 92 11 92 2024.03 2024.01 2023.06 Table_CompanyRptType 16/41 2.2.2 eVTOL eVTOL Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing 1 Electric 2 Vertical Takeoff and Landing 12 13 Table_CompanyRptType 17/41 eVTOL eVTOL 70%80%4-5 2000 eVTOL 700 EH216-S 239 eVTOL 0.5-2.5/6-8/eVTOL 120db eVTOL 65db eVTOL 15 Joby 2026 eVTOL 0.86/16 eVTOL Joby Aviation 14 eVTOL Table_CompanyRptType 18/41 eVTOL/EH216-S eVTOL Joby Archer Lilium Vertical eVTOL eVTOL TC eVTOL eVTOL SC-VTOL CCAR-23 CCAR-27 TC PC AC:TC PC AC TC Type Certification eVTOL TC 17 eVTOL/Joby Lilium Table_CompanyRptType 19/41 PC TC 18 eVTOL TC,Type Certification)(PC Production Certificate)(AC Airworthiness Certificate)eVTOL eVTOL TC,2023 10 13 TC EH216-S 12 AC 2024 3 22 TC V2000CG X3-F 2024 3 21 TC 19 eVTOL EH216-S 2023 10 13 TC V2000CG 2024 3 22 TC X3-F 2024 3 TC M1 2023 10 2024 1 TC AE200-100 2023 4 6 2.3 Table_CompanyRptType 20/41 1 0 120 2 120 300 3 300 1000 GW 0 120 120 300 20 Table_CompanyRptType 21/41 120-300+120 3 5 2023 12 22 40%200 300 10 2023 12 15 42%300-1000 E+1.5 21 22 Table_CompanyRptType 22/41 2.4 TC PC AC TC TC PC AC 23 SMART Table_CompanyRptType 23/41 3 3.1 3.1.1 2024 4 2024 2024 65%V1.0 2027 2500 24 2027 2500 25 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 3.1.2 Frost&Sullivan 2023 20.94%30.2%9.01%17.23%-90%-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0500100015002000250030002023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Table_CompanyRptType 24/41 2023 150 26 Frost&Sullivan 27 20.94%30.20%9.01%11.59%4.87%17.23%6.17%Table_CompanyRptType 25/41 28 Table_CompanyRptType 26/41 2023 68+WORLD 29 30 Table_CompanyRptType 27/41+2024 300 3.2 eVTOL 2030 市场规模超500 亿 3.2.1 eVTOL 31 2.5kg 5km WORLD 2023 15min 120kg 450km 2022 H-VTOL 430kg 300 km 2022 200kg 1300-3200km Manta Ray 10kg 100km Ark 12kg 20km FlyCart 30 30-40kg 16-28km 2023 8 32+Table_CompanyRptType 28/41 eVTOL 2030 eVTOL 500 eVTOL eVTOL EH216-2 2 239 6-8 eVTOL 6-8 eVTOL 2200/2030 eVTOL 1200/eVTOL 2 eVTOL 1000-1500 2024 1500/2030 650/“”2030 eVTOL 500 3.2.2 eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL 100-1,000 1,000 eVTOL eVTOL UAM RAM 33 2030 eVTOL 500 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 载人eVTOL 市场 空 间（亿 元）3.1 5.9 11.6 31.2 57.6 94.6 130.0 载人 eVTOL 均价（万元/架）2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1600 1200 载人 eVTOL 需求量（架）14 28 58 164 320 591 1083 载物eVTOL 市场 空 间（亿 元）17.9 31.1 49.3 132.8 230.4 335.4 390.0 载物 eVTOL 均价（万元/架）1500 1300 1200 1100 1000 800 650 载物 eVTOL 需求量（架）119 239 411 1207 2304 4192 6000 市 场 规 模合 计（亿 元）21 37 61 164 288 430 520 Morgan Stanley Table_CompanyRptType 29/41 34 eVTOL eVTOL EH216-S eVTOL EH216-S eVTOL 2023 10 2023 12 eVTOL 2023 48.91 93.3%4.91 140.3%eVTOL 35 EH216-S Table_CompanyRptType 30/41 4 eVTOL 1+2 2018 5 5G+9 3 4 36 E P S PE 2 0 2 4 0 4 1 9 20 23 E 20 24 E 20 25 E 2023E 202 4 E 202 5 E 00 08 01 1 1.90 0.20 0.25 0.31 39.31 52.26 43.16 688 6 31 77.44 0.77 0.96 1.20 77.80 62.88 49.89 00 00 99 20.24 0.31 0.35 0.42 28.55 44.50 37.77 30 10 91 41.15 0.55 0.74 0.90 76.07 56.97 46.70 68 85 22 60.83 0.85 1.71 2.75 63.21 31.37 19.54 002 1 51 28.1 1 0.30 0.62 0.90 106.61 48.36 33.37 60 05 80 1 5.0 5 0.86 1.04 1.26 17.05 14.14 1 1.71 002 0 85 14.61 0.35 0.45 0.58 41.12 29.97 24.72 30 04 84 13.76 0.14 0.17 0.20 104.97 86.55 73.70 61.6 3 47.44 37.84 ifind ifnd Table_CompanyRptType 31/41 5 5.1“”“”“”2023 29.04%11.20%37 YOY 38 wind wind 39 YOY 40 wind wind 5.2-90%-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY58.13%29.04%6.11%5.63%0.94%0.15%Table_CompanyRptType 32/41 2022 12 7 37 44 35 80%88 44 44 7 37 28 9 42%63.64%41 YOY 42 wind wind 43 YOY 44 wind wind 5.3 2023 15-90%-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0204060801001202019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY88.48%6.90%4.62%Table_CompanyRptType 33/41 45 YOY 46 wind wind 47 YOY 48 wind wind 5.4,-2018 5 5G+9-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY96.22%5.17%-1.39%Table_CompanyRptType 34/41 49 YOY 50 wind wind 51 YOY 52 wind wind 5.5 X-90%-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%02004006008001,0001,2001,4002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3-10%10%30%50%70%90%0204060801001201401601802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY41.90%33.64%24.31%0.14%Table_CompanyRptType 35/41 53 YOY 54 wind wind 55 YOY 56 wind wind 5.6“”/“”0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0204060801001202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY97.78%2.22%Table_CompanyRptType 36/41 57 YOY 58 wind wind 59 YOY 60 wind wind 5.7-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%110%130%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY92.64%4.17%3.20%Table_CompanyRptType 37/41 61 YOY 62 wind wind 63 YOY 64 wind wind 5.8“”“-”“-/-”-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3-40%-20%0%20%40%60%02004006008001,0001,2002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY62.85%19.93%7.05%6.53%3.64%Table_CompanyRptType 38/41 65 YOY 66 wind wind 67 YOY 68 wind wind 5.9 DCDC DCDC-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%04,0008,00012,00016,00020,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3-50%0%50%100%150%02004006008001,0001,2002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY84.06%15.93%0.01%Table_CompanyRptType 39/41 69 YOY 70 wind wind 71 YOY 72 wind wind-90%-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3-70%-40%-10%20%50%80%110%140%01020304050607080902018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 YOY62.12%33.89%3.99%Table_CompanyRptType 40/41 Table_Introduction 5/Table_Reputation Table_CompanyRptType 41/41 Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%