20240425_东方证券_氢能源行业:从氢的供需拆解探寻氢能发展方向_24页.pdf

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|IEA 2030 1.5/2022 4100/3300/1600 500 0.1%/9000/3000 IEA 2030 1.5(688551)(600475)(000852)/2024 04 25 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 S0860517100003 S0860521080002 2 2.4.6.6 6 7.8 9 12.15.15.16.17.22.22 XVCXxOqNoNpOqOmPqNoRqRaQ8QbRmOpPnPqMjMmMqMiNpNmRbRnMmNNZnMrMxNmPsQ 3 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.7 6“”.8 7.9 8.9 9 GWh.10 10 2019-2023.11 11 2020-2022.12 12 2019-2030/.12 13.13 14.14 15 2022.15 16 2023 6.15 17 CCUS/kg.16 18 t CO2/t.16 19.17 20.18 21/kg.18 22.19 23 PEM.19 24.19 25 2010-2022 LCOE.20 26 2030.20 27.20 28 GW.21 1 2021-2035.5 2.8 3.10 4.17 4 20 90 2023 12/实现终端深度脱碳的重要载体。1 2022 3 2021-2035 1 2025 5 10-20/100-200/N60XvBvIDqT5/PBlH2/mtciCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfbR8prgD0AH1ySPzHUaYXKA 5 2 2030 3 2035 2023 8 2023 1 2021-2035 6 IEA 2022 9500 3%0.1%29%2 IEA 2022 4100 7 3 IEA 5000 2022 3300/1600 10%31%23%15%4 5 2020 Wind 7.2%2022 10.2 15%-10%11%10%11%11%11%11%10%10%10%0%20%40%60%80%100%31%23%15%13%9%9%8 2/t-90%1.8-2.5 1.5t CO2/t-s 70-90%-10%0.4-0.6 1.5t CO2/t-s 70-90%DRI-0.96 1.5t CO2/t-s 70-90%(DRI)+10%-30%2040 500 NRDC CSDRI 2030/2050 290/713 6 2022 3500 0.1%0.002%2050 15%9 7 5%84%2023 40%17%8 0%10%20%30%40%50%0204060801001202022 1 2022 2 2022 3 2022 4 2022 5 2022 6 2022 7 2022 8 2022 9 2022 10 2022 11 2022 12 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 2023 5 2023 6 2023 7 2023 8 2023 9 2023 10 2023 11 2023 12 10 2023/130/420MWh 9 GWh 3-30-40-20 30%-18 CO2 CO SO2 500 200-600 500 5-15 2-8 10 50-60%30-40%0%1%1%2%2%3%0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.452020 2021 2022 2023 GWh 11 2023 428 2023 273 2022 10.8 EV Tank 10 2019-2023 IEA e-IMO 2023 12 SAFs 2023 4 ReFuelEU 2030 1.2%2050 35%IEA 2050 2030 800 50%45%800 12 11 2020-2022 IEA 0.2%IEA 2030 5.8GW 70%10%3%IEA 70GW 15%500/12 2019-2030/IEA 13 X H2 X 13 IEA 2050 2030 9000 IEA 2050 2030 1600 2200 IEA 2030/2050 1.5/4.3 14 14 IEA 050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002022 2030 E 2035 E 2050 E 9500 1.5 2.15 4.3 15 IEA 2022 9500 80%62%21%0.5%2023 6 4952 2709 54.7%1090 22.0%15 2022 16 2023 6 IEA CCUS CCUS 1%2022 16 CCUS CCUS IEA CCUS 7-11/kg 9-20/kg 9-18/kg 13-24/kg 3800 CCUS CCUS 62%21%0.5%0.6%16%0.1%CCUS 54.7%22.0%20.8%1.3%1.2%16 17 CCUS/kg IEA 21%16%55%-60%2019 4.71 700/2023 6 117/2023 6 130 18 t CO2/t 24.32810.0631.7750.2300.6741.6341.253051015202530 17 0.1%1.3%24kg CO2-eq/kg H2 14.51 kg CO2-eq/kg H2 4.9 kg CO2-eq/kg H2 0.1%6.6 2023 6(2021-2035)2025 10-20/0.1%4 19 IEA 18 ALK PEM AEM SOEC IEA 2022 60%30%1%20 IEA 7500 0.5/kWh 33.9-42.9/kg ALK PEM PEM 86%/53%6.6%/27.9%21/kg 19 22 23 PEM IEA 2025 2023 50%2030 60%720-810/25%24 IEA 10 IRENA 2010-2022 LCOE 0.445/kWh 0.049/kWh 89%LCOE 0.197/kWh 59%0.081/kWh LCOE 0.107/69%0.033/kWh IEA 3.1-9.7/kg 1.5/kg 50%2030 15%-20%IEA 2030 85.7%6.6%5.2%0.4%2.1%53.0%27.9%17.7%1.3%0.1%20 2060 80%25 2010-2022 LCOE IRENA IEA 2022 700 MW 20%2023 2000MW 20 2023 1100 50%/2030 175GW 2030 420 GW 26 2030 27 IEA 21 2022 30%7.4 4.3 2.6 0.5 28 GW IEA PEM 1700/kW 2000/kW 350/1/5 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050010001500200025003000 22/9000/3000 2030 1.5(688551)(600475)(000852)23 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
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