资源描述
|2024 04 07 3 PMI 53.0%23 3 3 2024 7 9 1 2024Q1+40%+20%2024Q1+25%+15%2024Q1+30%+40%2024Q1+30%+15%2 2024Q1+35%3000 2024Q1+10%+0%2024Q1+20%+20%3 Q1 3 Q1 2024Q1+15%2024Q1+10%2024Q1+15%2024Q1 2024Q1+15%2024Q1+15%-20%2024Q1+5%-10%2024Q1 2024Q1+40%2024Q1+5%-10%Metsa Kemi 3 21 10-12 Q1 9 Q1 2023/33.4/181.3-19.1%/+9.7%Q1 Q2 2024Q1 2.5 2024Q1 1.5 2024Q1 1.2 S0680523040001 1 2024-03-25 2 2024-03-25 3 Q1 2024-03-17-48%-32%-16%0%16%2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 300 2024 04 07 P.2 2024Q1 0.3 2024Q1 0.3&2023+6%Q4+24.8%2023+21.4%+12.3%2024Q1+15%2024Q1+30%2024Q1+20%2024Q1+20%2024Q1+5%2024Q1+20%2024Q1+25%2024Q1+35%3000&2024 2024Q1+5%+10%2024Q1+5%-10%2024Q1+10%昇 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 301061.SZ 2.61 3.16 3.61 4.27 25.54 21.09 18.47 15.61 603600.SH 1.01 0.86 1.08 1.37 12.18 14.30 11.39 8.98 603661.SH 2.54 3.16 3.89 4.65 18.24 14.66 11.91 9.96 603733.SH 1.01 0.87 1.59 2.19 17.48 20.29 11.10 8.06 603833.SH 4.41 5.14 5.89 6.70 15.36 13.18 11.50 10.11 603816.SH 2.20 2.48 2.91 3.38 17.31 15.35 13.09 11.27 603195.SH 3.58 4.29 5.03 5.84 29.40 24.53 20.92 18.02 002078.SZ 1.01 1.10 1.38 1.59 14.86 13.64 10.87 9.43 Wind YWAZvMmRpMrQoQnOtOoRnM6MdN6MoMrRsQnRfQmMtPlOqQxP6MmNnRNZmMsOwMpMtR 2024 04 07 P.3 1.6 1.1 2024 3 Q1.6 1.2.7 1.2.1.7 1.2.2.11 1.2.3.14 1.3&.15 1.4 3.18 1.5.20 2.21 2.2.22 3.23 3.1 2024 1-2.23 3.1.1 2024 1-2.23 3.1.2 2023 12.25 3.1.3 TDI MDI.27 3.2 2024 3.29 3.2.1.29 3.2.2 2024 3.31 3.2.3 2024 2.32 3.3 2024 1-2 8.13+5.5%.34 3.4 2024 1-2.36 4.38 1 28 2024 4.6 2/.8 3/.8 4.8 5.8 6 20.8 7 20.8 8.9 9/.10 10/.10 11%.10 12.10 13.10 14.11 15/.12 16/.12 17/.12 18/.12 19%.13 2024 04 07 P.4 20.13 21.13 22.14 23.15 24.16 25.16 26/.17 27&.18 28/.18 29%.19 30.19 31.21 32 2024 4 1-4 3.21 33 2024 4 1-4 3%.21 34.23 35.23 36.23 37.23 38.24 39.24 40.24 41.24 42.25 43.25 44.25 45.25 46.26 47.26 48%.26 49%.26 50.27 51.27 52.27 53.27 54/.28 55/.28 56 MDI/.28 57 TDI/.28 58/.29 59/.29 60/.29 61 2019-2024/.29 62 2019-2024/.30 63 2019-2024/.30 64 2019-2024/.30 65 2019-2024/.30 Uuj4lhJyNstOa9XNV8+QJ8iCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfaGVNjpVlf+Sh26adzxMYf3 2024 04 07 P.5 66 2019-2024/.30 67 2019-2024/.30 68 2019-2024/.31 69 2019-2024/.31 70.31 71.31 72.32 73.32 74.32 75.32 76%.33 77%.33 78%.33 79%.33 80%.33 81%.33 82%.34 83%.34 84%.34 85%.34 86%.35 87%.35 88%.35 89%.35 90.35 91%.35 92:.36 93:.36 94:.36 95:.36 96:.36 97:.37 98:.37 99:.37 100:.37 101:.37 102:.37 2024 04 07 P.6 1 1.1 2024 3 Q1 2024 4 CRIC 2024 4 28 781-26%-48%2024 3 4 1 2024 4-27%-10%+549%2024 4-56%/-31%/-21%2 2024 4 27%56%+11%2024 1-4+34%+149%/+171%/+89%/+99%/+461%-66%/-47%3+22%-49%1 28 2024 4 CRIC 2024 4 2024 4 89 0%549%193 33%40-56%-44%192-22%43-31%-58%143-43%47-21%-18%139-10%219-27%-10%667-16%53-34%-48%184-47%51-43%11%234 34%49-66%-65%340-36%46-26%-58%178-44%44 149%-20%101-42%43 171%-45%103-40%38-51%-70%160-52%32 99%2%65-39%31 89%-27%76-54%27-3%-62%103-47%23 6%-57%77-30%20-47%-60%78-55%17-3%-75%60-72%15-6%-60%55-61%11-52%-63%47-42%9 461%-51%25-62%6-70%-88%38-60%5-82%-92%61-67%5-7%-78%18-70%523-27%-56%2006-45%9 130%-48%23-67%9-19%-33%33-48%9 0%13%23 118%6 75%-61%19-23%6 31%-74%34-53%39 22%-49%132-45%2024 04 07 P.7 2024 3 3 2023 3+1 2024Q1 2024Q1 2 3 2024Q1+40%1 2024Q1+15%2024Q1+10%2024Q1+15%2 2024Q1+40%2024Q1+5%-10%2024Q1 3 2024Q1 2024Q1+5%-10%2024Q1 2024Q1+15%2024Q1+15%-20%4 2024Q1 1.2 1.2.1 2024 4 Arauco 780/+35/710/+60/Suzano 4 30/80/100/Mercer 4 50/2024 4 1-4 3/+0.29%/+1.24%2024 2 20+10.2%+23.5%SAK 4 8 Metsa Kemi 3 21 10-12 2024 3 29-4 3 184.24-2.12%2024 04 07 P.8 2/3/4 5 Europulp 6 20 7 20 PPPC PPPC 400500600700800900100011002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04(/)(/)200030004000500060007000800090002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01/-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%801001201401601802002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002502020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-02-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-02/2024 04 07 P.9 8 Arauco 2024 年 4 月 780/+35/710/+60/Suzano 2024 年 4 月 30/80/100/Mercer 2024 年 4 月 50/Suzano 2024 3 80/30/Eldorado Klabin Bracell 2024 3 30/Arauco 2024 3 745/650/Arauco 2024 2 745 美元/吨（-15/）650/Arauco 2024 1 760 美元/吨（-20/）650/Arauco 2023 12 780/Arauco 2023 11 780/+50/630/+50/Aracmz Celulose 2023 10 590/+30/West Fraser Timber 2023 10 780/+50/Catalyst 2023 10 770/+20/Arauco 2023 10 730/+40/580/+30/5913/5840/-3.21pct/-0.18%/-0.09%4720/-35/-0.03pct+5.51%120 100 80 2024 04 07 P.10 9/10/11%12 13 2024 45 PM32 Wind 2024 2025 5000550060006500700075002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01 40005000600070008000900010000110002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01/30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01 0501001502002502018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 中期判断新增产能亚太森博45金东纸业30博汇纸业45玖龙纸业55亚太森博40联盛纸业50岳阳林纸45华泰纸业12五洲特纸30玖龙纸业60国内供给增量 120 145 57 90国内需求增量-137 142 13 13进口增量-93-13-10-7出口增量 108 17 51 60供给-需求 56-26-16 10新增产能广西金桂90玖龙纸业60泰鼎纸业30亚太森博100联盛纸业100仙鹤股份30玖龙纸业120博汇 纸业 80联盛纸业100冠豪高新30金桂浆纸业90亚太森博120宁波亚洲浆纸100新乡新亚纸业40金天和纸业30理文造纸30国内供给增量 180 230 420 320国内需求增量-53 28 32 34进口增量-48 2 2 2出口增量 150 1 18 19供给-需求 35 203 372 270文化纸供需平衡白卡纸供过于求 2024 04 07 P.11 14 2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.3.15+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.2.1+100/2024.2.1+100/2023.12.1+200/2023.12.1+200/2023.12.1+200/APP 2023.12.1+200/2023.11.16+200/2023.11.15+200/2023.11.15+200/APP 2023.11.1+300/2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/APP 2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.2.28+200/2024.2.1+100/2024.2.1+100/2024.3.26+200/2024.3.26+200/APP 2024.3.25+200/2024.2.1+100/2024.1.30+100/2024.1.16+100/2024.1.16+100/2024.1.16+100/2023.12.1/2023.12.1/2023.12.1/1.2.2 2024 04 07 P.12 1 1433/+12/3721/2738/-43/-26/-0.30pct/-0.33pct+0.17%/-0.21%2 12#225/-2.5/15/16/17/18/5001000150020002500300035002017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-092024-02A 1001502002503003504002021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04 12 13 11 OCC 11250030003500400045005000550060002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04 250030003500400045005000550060002018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01/2024 04 07 P.13 19%20 21 2023 2023 2024 2022 2024 2024 2025 30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%2018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01 0501001502002502018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 中期判断国内新增产能广东山鹰100玖龙纸业60浙江山鹰77广西玖龙80辽宁玖龙65太阳纸业100吉林山鹰30五洲特纸60国内供给增量 160 322 90国内需求增量-272 478 175 181进口增量-94 289 45 47出口增量 1 0 1 1供给-需求 337 133-42-135箱板瓦楞纸供需平衡 2024 04 07 P.14 22 T 2024.4.7+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+50/2023.12.19+50/B 2023.12.7-2023.12.14+50/2023.12.7+50/2023.11.29+30/90 2023.11.27+50/90 2023.11.23+50/2023.11.22+30/2023.11.25+50/2023.10.12+50-100/2023.10.07+50/2023.10.12+150/2023.10.09+50/Q1 9 Q1 1.2.3 2023/33.4/181.3-19.1%/+9.7%2023H1 72%&2024 2024 04 07 P.15 23 Q1 Q2 Q1/3 Q2 24H1&Q1 Q1 Q2&2024&Q1 2024Q1 2.5 2024Q1 1.5 2024Q1 1.2 2024Q1 0.3 2024Q1 0.3 1.3&2023 2023 233.51+16.8%15.27+19.1%13.98+21.0%Q4 74.92+19.5%4.33+24.6%1 SKU 2023-87+6%Q4 22+4%2023/22.73/34.66/35.11+4.8%/+8.6%/+8.9%Q4+6.6%/+5.2%/+7.3%2023 41.9%/34.0%/27.6%+2.4pct/+1.6pct/+1.3pct 2 2023 133.07+21.8%4.01+8.0%7.2%-1.2pct Q4 49.88+24.8%Q3 3&2023 13.35+51.0%12.40+52.6%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060801001201401601802002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY YOY 2024 04 07 P.16 2573 2023 659+119 Q3+46 618+129 41&2023 2023 11.76+22.2%1.28+68.9%Q4 2.70+17.0%0.30+11.6%Q4 530 2023+43.1%/+79.1%/+55.7%2023 65.8%+6.0%2023/9.23/1.84/0.69+22.2%/+44.7%/-13.1%/69.9%/42.8%-1.0pct/+7.8pct 1 2023/495/20+3/-1 186+21.4%2.73/.+12.3%2 2023 GMV 2.08+44.5%GMV 88.6%+0.1pct Q4 GMV 0.59+46.6%GMV 1.11 0.74 3 2023 9038 432 638 24 25/100 2021 2022 400%2023 2024 3 31/100 1 2024 2 3 C&B&4&5 4.0 2024 3000 2024 04 07 P.17 26/1 2024Q1+15%2024Q1+20%2 2024Q1+30%3 2024Q1+25%2024Q1+35%3000 4 2024Q1+20%5 2024Q1+20%2024Q1+5%6 7 8 2024 04 07 P.18 1.4 3 2 36.5-3.3%+9.5%3 PMI 53.0%23 3 24 1/39.7%/46.2%24 1/2+25.9%/57.6%27&Wind 28/Wind 43.40%47.71%39.68%78.95%26.32%52.04%23.26%2020 1.44 1.99 1.67 1.80 0.79 2.44 1.512024-01 1.33 1.90 1.54 1.96 0.77 2.32 1.35 77.78%48.18%46.15%100.00%83.33%69.23%54.74%38.89%76.62%96.70%2020 1.59 1.56 1.63 1.40 1.09 0.79 1.97 1.19 2.03 2.532024-01 1.83 1.81 1.63 1.77 1.25 0.84 2.24 1.27 2.32 3.01 46.88%52.63%6.90%59.65%72.73%27.38%20.00%19.44%90.91%100.00%2020 0.93 1.03 1.14 1.95 0.66 1.22 1.13 0.37 1.26 1.392024-01 0.94 1.03 1.00 2.57 0.73 1.10 1.03 0.31 1.65 1.90 2024 04 07 P.19 29%30 Wind Wind 2023 24.07-0.9%2.5+21.3%Q4 7.01+32.4%0.97+276.2%1 19.76-3.0%H2 12.02+32.2%H2 RCEP 50%2 4.3+10.5%H2 2.8+11.9%&H2+15pct&2023 29.83-6.2%3.53+35.3%Q4 7.90+13.7%0.49+52.1%2024Q1 1.03-1.23+135.7%+181.4%1.13+158.5%0.95-1.15+138.7%+189.0%1.05+163.9%23+79%1-2 3 1 2 3 2024 7 9 1 2024Q1+40%+20%2024Q1+25%+15%2024Q1+30%+40%Stanley 2024Q1+30%+15%&2 2024Q1+10%+0%2024Q1+20%+20%4042444648505254562022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-03:PMI:-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%010203040506070802020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01:YOY 2024 04 07 P.20 1.5 2015-2023 CAGR 10.9%&1 2023H2 2024 2 2023 2024 2023&2016-2023 77.76%1 3C 2023 2024 2 2023 3 2023H2 2024 4 2023 2024 2024 2023&2023-2025 60%2024 2024Q1+5%+10%2024Q1+5%-10%2024Q1+10%昇 2024 04 07 P.21 2 2024 4 1-4 3+0.86%+1.53%300+0.92%+2.91%1+2.4%+3.4%2-0.6%+4.5%+0.6%+1.6%+2.4%3+1.2%+2.7%+3.0%+6.4%+3.3%4+0.4%+3.0%1 2*ST 31 Wind 32 2024 4 1-4 3 33 2024 4 1-4 3%Wind Wind-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023-01-102023-01-202023-01-302023-02-092023-02-192023-03-012023-03-112023-03-212023-03-312023-04-102023-04-202023-04-302023-05-102023-05-202023-05-302023-06-092023-06-192023-06-292023-07-092023-07-192023-07-292023-08-082023-08-182023-08-282023-09-072023-09-172023-09-272023-10-072023-10-172023-10-272023-11-062023-11-162023-11-262023-12-062023-12-162023-12-262024-01-052024-01-152024-01-252024-02-042024-02-142024-02-242024-03-052024-03-152024-03-25 300()-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%2024/04/01 2024/04/02 2024/04/03()()()()-30-25-20-15-10-505101520*ST 2024 04 07 P.22 2.2 2023 24.07-0.86%2.50+21.31%2.16+8.55%10 1 2023 26.73-8.49%1.22-41.32%0.73-51.48%10 0.17 2024 3 31 97.84 0.78%17.94/16.34/1641.83 2024 3 31 236.96 0.24%12.56/7.84/2495.16 2024 3 29 1031.70 0.40%4.37/4.25/4417.16 2023 11.76+22.20%1.28+68.93%1.16+82.90%10 6 2023 29.83-6.2%3.53+35.29%3.57+24.27%2024 1.03-1.23+135.66%-181.42%0.95-1.15+138.74%-189.00%2024 04 07 P.23 3 3.1 2024 1-2 3.1.1 2024 1-2 2024 1-2 0.77-20.2%1-2 0.77-21.3%34 35 Wind Wind 2024 1-2 0.94-29.7%1-2 0.94-30.5%36 37 Wind Wind 2024 1.14-20.5%1-2 1.14-24.9%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01234567892021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0500010000150002000025000300002021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%05101520252021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-02%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%0500010000150002000025000300002021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-02 2024 04 07 P.24 38 39 Wind Wind 2024 2024 3 21 15.6-41.9%0.17-43.9%3.81-42.0%0.04-40.1%7.69-42.0%0.09-43.3%4.1-41.7%0.04-49.1%40 41 Wind Wind 2024 3 14 3 21 19825-48.2%+25.2%218.58-48.6%+33.3%4715-54.4%+23.5%53.2-48.7%+30.5%10144-43.3%+37.5%118.37-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%024681012141618202021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-02%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%05000100001500020000250002021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-02 0204060801001201401602022-05-212022-07-212022-09-212022-11-212023-01-212023-03-212023-05-212023-07-212023-09-212023-11-212024-01-212024-03-2130:30:30:0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002022-05-212022-07-212022-09-212022-11-212023-01-212023-03-212023-05-212023-07-212023-09-212023-11-212024-01-212024-03-2130:30:30:2024 04 07 P.25-44.6%+38.9%4966-50.8%+6.9%47-56.6%+23.6%42 43 Wind Wind 3.1.2 2023 12 2023 6555.7-4.4%364.6-6.6%12 759.1-4.6%63.1-19.5%2023 12 7344 1705 23.2%44 45 Wind Wind 01000020000300004000050000600002022-05-212022-06-212022-07-212022-08-212022-09-212022-10-212022-11-212022-12-212023-01-212023-02-212023-03-212023-04-212023-05-212023-06-212023-07-212023-08-212023-09-212023-10-212023-11-212023-12-212024-01-212024-02-212024-03-2130:30:30:30:0501001502002503003504004505002022-05-212022-06-212022-07-212022-08-212022-09-212022-10-212022-11-212022-12-212023-01-212023-02-212023-03-212023-04-212023-05-212023-06-212023-07-212023-08-212023-09-212023-10-212023-11-212023-12-212024-01-212024-02-212024-03-2130:30:30:30:-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01000200030004000500060007000800090002021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002503003504004505002021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12 2024 04 07 P.26 46 47 Wind Wind 48%49%Wind Wind 2024 2 2024 2 868.8-23.1%600064006800720076002020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12:500700900110013001500170019002100230025002020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12:-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0200400600800100012002021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0102030405060708090202
展开阅读全文