资源描述
1 1ZCXyRrMoNqRqOtQtOqPnM6M9R9PmOoOoMrNlOoOqMiNpOsQ6MmNtNMYpPpMuOoOrQ2 3 jcyokqx3JcarJ2rjI5vIKMiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfZKKndiNQBb4yxcFNRmfypX 4 A 2024/1/1-4/3-0.37%300-4.36%13-3.09%-3.36%Wind 2024 A-20%0%20%300-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2024-1-2 2024-1-16 2024-1-30 2024-2-21 2024-3-6 2024-3-20 2024-4-3-40%-20%0%20%40%1/2/2024 1/16/2024 1/30/2024 2/21/2024 3/6/2024 3/20/2024 4/3/2024 5 H 2024/1/1-4/3 HK+8%+9%12 H 361 35%15%9%3 411%0 2023Q4-9%Wind 2023-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2024-1-2 2024-1-16 2024-1-30 2024-2-21 2024-3-6 2024-3-20 HK()-40%-20%0%20%40%2024-1-2 2024-1-16 2024-1-30 2024-2-21 2024-3-6 2024-3-20 2024-4-3 361 6 7 2023Q380901001101201302019-1 2019-8 2020-3 2020-10 2021-5 2021-12 2022-7 2023-2 2023-9:-50%0%50%100%01,0002,0003,0002021/1-22021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023/1-22023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12:yoy 8 2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4 5 5 5+6+5 5 5 5 FILA 6-7 7 7-8 7+5 5 5+4 3.6 4+4.2 4-4.5 3.8 3.5 3.6 4 4.5 4.5-5 5.5 5 5 4.5-5 4-4.5 0100200300400 2023Q3 9-20%0%20%40%60%200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023-10%0%10%20%30%02,0004,0006,000200920112013201520172019202120232025E2027E()yoy-50%0%50%020040060020092011201320152017201920212023 yoy 10 EPS PE 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E2331.HK HKD 20.75 1.42 1.57 1.74 15 13 12 2020.HK HKD 88.80 5.34 5.67 6.48 17 16 14 1368.HK HKD 4.80 0.45 0.52 0.65 11 9 7 1361.HK 361 HKD 4.59 0.60 0.70 0.80 8 7 6 3998.HK HKD 4.01 0.26 0.30 0.35 16 13 12 002832.SZ CNY 29.79 2.11 2.51-14 12-002154.SZ CNY 6.18 0.57 0.67-11 9-600398.SH CNY 9.26 0.77 0.88-12 11-603877.SH CNY 16.69 1.21 1.43 1.60 14 12 10 002563.SZ CNY 5.75 0.50 0.57 0.63 11 10 9 603808.SH CNY 8.37 0.87 1.05-10 8-603587.SH CNY 13.11 1.32 1.50-10 9-603518.SH CNY 9.47 1.05 1.26-9 7-002293.SZ CNY 9.97 0.86 0.97-12 10-002327.SZ CNY 10.96 0.77 0.85-14 13-11 Wind 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 10-20%5 5 5+6+5 5 5 FILA 10-20%10-20%10-20%10-20%25-30%6-7 7 7-8 7+5 5 5 40-45%20-25%40-45%10-20%75-80%70-75%40-45%55-60%+Q1 3 Q1/fila 2024 Amer 2024:/fila 10-15%20%+30%+Amer:2024 EPS0.3-0.4 43%4.5-6 2024H1 Amer 16:23-28cagr 6%53651623567085780264906090%20%050,000100,0002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy7590102361326014072160820%50%05,00010,00015,00020,0002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy 12 Wind 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q12023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2530%1020%1015%10-20%10-20%4 3.6 4+4.2 4-4.5 3.8 3.5 3.6 2030%10 20%1520%10 20%10 20%3040%2030%1015%10 20%25803275982932732156353700%20%050,0002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy-50%0%50%05,0002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy 13 16214167742027223350266430%10%20%30%010,00020,00030,000FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E FY2025E FY2026E yoy206221392712317836750%10%20%30%02,0004,000FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E FY2025E FY2026E yoyWind 14 15 Wind:2024 1/2 11.5%/22.6%Wind:2024 1/2 3%/32%2023Q1 Q2 2023Q1 Q2 4 9 11 2024 2024 1-2/+13.3%/+7.9%2022 1-2-12.2%/-8.2%-50%0%50%100%05000001000000150000020000002021-12021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-12022-32022-52022-72022-92022-112023-12023-32023-52023-72023-92023-112024-1():-50%0%50%100%050000010000001500000200000025000002021-12021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-12022-32022-52022-72022-92022-112023-12023-32023-52023-72023-92023-112024-1():yoy 16 2023Q3Wind 2024 1/2-0.46%/+1.31%2024 1 2.31 2.32-1001020302022-12022-32022-52022-72022-92022-112023-12023-32023-52023-72023-92023-112024-1:CPI:1.522.533.51 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2021 20222023 20241.51.71.92.12.32.52.71 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2021 20222023 2024 17 Wind:Nike Lululemon Nike Adidas Puma Lululemon 9-10%FY2023Q1 FY2023Q2 FY2023Q3 FY2023Q4 FY2024Q1 FY2024Q2 FY2024Q3(2022/6-2022/8)(2023/3-2023/5)(2023/6-2023/8)(2023/9-2023/11)(2023/12-2024/2)Nike 115.1 112.4 116.9 108.0 106.9 101.2 102.9 22 16 7 0-8-11-14 7-3 5-9-1-6 2FY2023Q2 FY2023Q3 FY2023Q4 FY2024Q1 FY2024Q2 FY2024Q3(2022/7-2022/9)(2023/1-2023/3)(2023/4-2023/6)(2023/7-2023/9)(2023/10-2023/12)VF 152.9 150.9 158.5 232.0 160.3 156.9 71 73 69 70 7 6-9-2 8 74-72-3FY2022Q3 FY2022Q4 FY2023Q1 FY2023Q2 FY2023Q3 FY2023Q4(2022/7-2022/9)(2023/1-2023/3)(2023/4-2023/6)(2023/7-2023/9)(2023/10-2023/12)Adidas 162.8 174.4 180.1 192.3 153.6 158.3 42 43 35 30-9-16 1 12 6 12-39 5Puma 155.8 168.2 168.8 165.0 148.0 176.4 32 28 30 14-8 8 4 12 1-4-17 28FY2022Q3 FY2022Q4 FY2023Q1 FY2023Q2 FY2023Q3 FY2023Q4(2023/5-2023/7)(2023/8-2023/10)(2023/11-2024/1)Lululemon 176.2 170.4 160.2 160.2 157.8 103.3 51 74 24 9-18-67 25-6-10 0-2-55 18 2024 2 2022 2023Wind2023Wind1,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-50%0%50%100%01,0002,0003,0002021/1-22021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023/1-22023-042023-062023-082023-102023-12:yoy 19 1 2 3 ESG 4 Nike Lululemon Wind:EPS PE 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E2313.HK HKD 72.80 4.08 4.72 5.27 18 15 14 300979.SZ CNY 62.13 3.17 3.72-20 17-002003.SZ CNY 11.00 0.56 0.65-20 17-603889.SH CNY 6.89 0.7 0.83-10 8-603558.SH CNY 11.25 0.89 1.01 1.15 13 11 10 603055.SH CNY 10.05 0.76 0.92-13 11-002674.SZ CNY 11.59 0.97 1.19-12 10-601339.SH CNY 5.61 0.51 0.67-11 8-20 23 45%:55%35%:65%0%10%20%30%40%2017H12017H22018H12018H22019H12019H22020H12020H22021H12021H22022H12022H22023H12023H2 277812497029,00332,80836,781-20%-10%0%10%20%010,00020,00030,00040,0002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy4,563 4,5575,6546,5477,312-10%0%10%20%30%02,0004,0006,0008,0002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoyWind 21 2024 1 16%13%13%6%-13%2024 2-8%-11%-12%26%-64%2024 1+2 4%1%0%15%-41%2,768 3,228 3,199 3,704 4,336-10%0%10%20%02,0004,0006,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy-10%0%10%20%010,00020,00030,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoyWind 22 2021 YKK YKK 3-15 2-3 1 YKK Wind3,356 3,628 3,915 4,548 5,163 0%5%10%15%20%02,0004,0006,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy449 489 554 658 758 0%5%10%15%20%02004006008002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy 23 Wind600800100012002022-12022-22022-32022-52022-62022-82022-102022-112023-12023-22023-32023-52023-62023-82023-102023-112024-12024-2(/)2983904114905800%10%20%30%40%02004006008002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy344539504408511958890%5%10%15%20%02,0004,0006,0008,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy 24 0500010000150002000025000300002021-12021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-12022-32022-52022-72022-92022-112023-12023-32023-52023-72023-92023-112024-2Cotlook A:1%Wind77746989673277318442-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%05001,0001,5002,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy 25 26 EPS PE2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E2331.HK HKD 20.75 1.42 1.57 1.74 15 13 12 2020.HK HKD 88.80 5.34 5.67 6.48 17 16 14 1368.HK HKD 4.80 0.45 0.52 0.65 11 9 7 1361.HK 361 HKD 4.59 0.60 0.70 0.80 8 7 6 3998.HK HKD 4.01 0.26 0.30 0.35 16 13 12 002832.SZ CNY 29.79 2.11 2.51-14 12-002154.SZ CNY 6.18 0.57 0.67-11 9-600398.SH CNY 9.26 0.77 0.88-12 11-603877.SH CNY 16.69 1.21 1.43 1.60 14 12 10 002563.SZ CNY 5.75 0.50 0.57 0.63 11 10 9 603808.SH CNY 8.37 0.87 1.05-10 8-603587.SH CNY 13.11 1.32 1.50-10 9-603518.SH CNY 9.47 1.05 1.26-9 7-002293.SZ CNY 9.97 0.86 0.97-12 10-002327.SZ CNY 10.96 0.77 0.85-14 13-2313.HK HKD 72.80 4.08 4.72 5.27 18 15 14 300979.SZ CNY 62.13 3.17 3.72-20 17-002003.SZ CNY 11.00 0.56 0.65-20 17-603889.SH CNY 6.89 0.7 0.83-10 8-603558.SH CNY 11.25 0.89 1.01 1.15 13 11 10 603055.SH CNY 10.05 0.76 0.92-13 11-002674.SZ CNY 11.59 0.97 1.19-12 10-601339.SH CNY 5.61 0.51 0.67-11 8-Wind 27 2024 28 29评级 说明 国泰君安证券研究所E-mail：投资建议的比较标准股票投资评级增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅15%以上上海投资评级分为股票评级和行业评级。谨慎增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于5%15%之间以报告发布后的12个月内的市场表现为比较标准，报告发布日后的12 个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深300 指数涨跌幅为基准。中性 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于-5%5%深圳 减持 相对沪深300/恒生指数下跌5%以上行业投资评级增持 明显强于沪深300/恒生指数中性 基本与沪深300/恒生指数持平北京 减持 明显低于沪深300/恒生指数地址 上海市静安区新闸路669号博华广场20 层邮编 200041电话（021）38676666地址 深圳市福田区益田路6003号荣超商务中心B 栋27层邮编 518026电话（0755）23976888地址 北京市西城区金融大街甲9 号 金融街中心南楼18层邮编 100032电话（010）83939888
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