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HTTP:/LONGONE 1AI 2024 3 14 S0630523060001 颋 HTTP:/LONGONE 2摘要 AI AI CAG R 29%2023 ChatGPT Sora AI AGI AI 2023 AI 85.5 2026 236.9 CAGR 29.02%AI G PU AI AI AI 70%AI G PU FPGA ASIC GPU AI AI 89%GPU AI 90%AI AI 70-75%20 23Q4 AMD GPU 80%19%1%AI HBM GPU AI HBM 55%10%HighBandwidt h Mem or y DRAM HBM 1T/s GDDR 94%GDDR HBM HBM IDC AI 2026 60%TOP10 5 73%25G 2.5G 10G 90%60%25G 20%25G 5%AI AI AI 29%AI AI XVEVyRmRsRnMpRtQtOtMnM9PaOaQtRnNpNsOeRpPsRjMqRqN8OqQzRxNmRtMMYmOvN HTTP:/LONGONE 3 AI A HTTP:/LONGONE 41.1 AI AI 1760-1840 1870-1914 1960 2023-AI IoT 2023 ChatGPT Sora AI AGI HTTP:/LONGONE 51.1 AI Artificial Intelligence AI AI ANI AGI ASI AI AI Sora AGI AI ANI AGI ASI AI AI AI AI AI HTTP:/LONGONE 61.2 AIGC AI AIGC AI Generated Content AI PGC UGC AIGC AIGC AIGC AI AI OpenAI AIGC C AI B AI AI AI C AIB AI AI HTTP:/LONGONE 71.3 AIGC 2022-2030E AIGC Precedence Research,IDC 10813717422128135745357673201002003004005006007008002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E2022-2030E AIGC 25581082102803666248871095132%86%94%33%31%70%42%23%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0200400600800100012002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E YoY%()2020-2028E 1537701472163185668801179147%89%110%47%47%78%55%34%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%02004006008001000120014002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E YoY%()2020-2028E 25 1434361223259347597202950911441472%205%181%112%84%51%32%20%0%100%200%300%400%500%020004000600080001000012000140002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E2022-2030E AIGC YoY%()2022-2030E AIGC HTTP:/LONGONE 81.4 AI1952-2022 FLOPs Compute Trends across 3 eras of Machine Learning,J.Sevilla,L.Heim,A.Ho,T.Besiroglu,M.Hobbhahn,P.Villalobos,1952-2010 CPU GPU 20 2010-2015 GPU 5-6 2015-BERT GPT 10 2-3 ChatGPT Sora AI AI HTTP:/LONGONE 91.4 AI AI AIGC,HTTP:/LONGONE 101.5 AI IT IT AI 5G IT AI AI AI AI+2012 2016 2020 2012 IT 2016 Alpha Go 2020 5G CPUGPUASICFPGA,HTTP:/LONGONE 111.5 AI AI 1110 1135127414011535165612315016218220323605001000150020002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027EX86 X862022-2027E()85.5118.3150.4189.5236.938.4%27.1%26.0%25.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0501001502002502022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E YoY%()2022-2026E AI IDC Gigalight 2022 AI 2022 AI TrendForce 19%17%16%14%6%2%2%2%22%Meta 47%11%9%7%6%6%5%2%7%HTTP:/LONGONE 121.5 AI AI CPU/GPU/AI AMD Intel DRAM SK HDD/SSD SK ADl Rambus PCB RAID/LSI/(ODM)Inventec Wistron Quanta Wiwynn Mitac Gigabyte Pegatron HPE IBM/AI/AI DRAM SSD RAID HTTP:/LONGONE 13 AI A HTTP:/LONGONE 142.1 AI AIGPU FPGA ASIC FPGA ASIC ASIC GPU GPU ASIC ASIC FPGA ASIC/NVIDIA Tesla AMD Instinct Intel Stratix Xilinx Virtex UltraScale Google TPU Tensor Processing Unit Amazon AWS Inferentia AI AI AI AI GPU FPGA ASIC GPU AI AI 89%FPGA ASIC AI AI GPU/FPGA/ASIC ASIC GPU ASIC FPGA GPU ASIC ASIC HTTP:/LONGONE 152.1 AI GPU AI AI AI 70-75%GPU AI 90%AI AI 70-75%AI GPU CPU CPU GPU(ALU)Cache GPU GPU CPU Cache GPU CPU AI GPU AI 89%9.60%1.00%0.40%GPU NPU ASIC FPGA IDC 2022 AI 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%AI CPU GPU 30-35%15-20%20-25%20-25%25-30%27-30%25-30%20-25%5-10%5-10%5-10%70-75%5-10%2-5%Semianalysis AI HTTP:/LONGONE 1611618443785012262302260058.6%137.5%94.5%44.2%87.8%12.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0500100015002000250030002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E AI YoY%()442534671813986119420.9%25.6%21.2%21.2%21.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02004006008001000120014002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E AI()YoY%()2.1 AI AI2022-2027E AI Gartner 2019-2024E AI 2022Q4-2023Q4 GPGPU Jon Peddie Research 2020-2025E(EFLOPS)IDC 42961590614252168330005001000150020002500300035002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E EFLOPS HTTP:/LONGONE 172.2 AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI 2023 AI AI Frost&Sullivan 2022 AI 368 2027 3400 2022-2027E CAGR 39.98%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 67.3 89.2 135.8 201.4 269.9 362 485 649 870 13.8 18 30.3 45 60.7 82 111 150 202AI 122 178 251 368 574.1 896 1,397 2,179 3,400 235.8 324.3 407.1 503.4 609.2 787 983 1,229 1,53602000400060008000 AI 2019-2027E AI 3275155268427641923127102004006008001000120014002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E/EFLOPS)2020-2025E EFLOPS IDC HTTP:/LONGONE 18 GDDR Graphics Double Data Rate GDDR DDR DDR DDR GDDR GDDR 1 55%10%2 GPU GPU GDDR GPU 3 GPU HBM 2.2 HBM AI CSDN AMD 1 GDDR CPU 2 GDDR 3 HTTP:/LONGONE 19 HBM HighBandwidthMe mor y DRAM HBM T SV()DRAM uBum p Interpos er()Interpos er Bump Substrate()BALL BGA BALL PCB HBM(1)1T/s(2)G DDR 94%(3)G DDR 2.2 HBM GDDR5GDDR5 HBM HBMHBM GDDR HBM GDDR CSDN AMD HTTP:/LONGONE 202.2 HBM 2.5D/3D TSV uBUMP ANSYS 2.5D 3D TSV HBM SK 2.5D COWOS HBM 2.5D I-Cube HBM HTTP:/LONGONE 212.2 HBM 2024 1TB/s HBM3E SK HBM HBM SK 2022-2024 HBM2E HBM3 TrendForce HBM I/O HBM1 2Gb(4-hi)128GB/s 4 1GB 1GbpsHBM2 8Gb 307GB/s 4/8 4/8/16GB 2.4GbpsHBM2E 8Gb/16Gb 460GB/s 4/8 8/16GB 3.6GbpsHBM3 16Gb 819GB/s 8/12 16/24GB 6.4GbpsHBM3E NA 1.2TB/s 8 24GB 9.2Gbps SK 2014 HBM1 SK AMD NA2018 HBM2 NA2019 8 HBM2E 2020 7 2021 10 HBM3 2022 6 2023 8 HBM3E 2024 2016 6 HBM2 2018 2020 2 HBM2E 2020 2021 2 HBM-PIM 2021-HBM3 2022 2024 2 HBM3E 36GB 2024 2023 HBM3E 24GB 2024 2 26 HBM 2024 HBM3 HBM3E HBM3 60%HBM HBM 1 2.5D 3D COW OS 5 2 GPU HBM GPU AI 3 GDDR 19nm 1 1 8%39%60%70%50%25%22%11%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022 2023E 2024EHBM3 HBM2E Others HTTP:/LONGONE 222.2 HBM HBM TrendForce Gartner HBM 2022-2024 HBM TrendForce HBM TrendForc e AI 2022 85.5 2026 236.9 CAG R 29%GPU 2/4/8/16 2024 4/8 GPU HBM 60-100GB HBM 2024 HBM 108.29 HBM TrendForc e 3 HBM SK G PU GDDR 2.5D/3D HBM HBM AI AI HBM 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E AI 85.5 118.2 150.4 189.5 236.9 GPU 4 4 6 8 8 GPU HBM GB 40 60 80 90 100HBM/GB 18 16 15 12 11 HBM 24.62 45.39 108.29 163.73 208.47 2022 2023E 2024ESK 50%46-49%47-49%40%46-49%47-49%10%4-6%3-5%HTTP:/LONGONE 232.2 HBM HBM HTTP:/LONGONE 24(Optical Module)100G 200G 400G 800G 1.6T SFP SFP+SFF GBIC 2.3 HTTP:/LONGONE 25 73%PCB TOSA ROSA 48%32%TOSA 35%25G 2.5G 10G 90%60%25G 20%25G 5%2.3 TOSA 35%SFP+90%60%20%5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2.5Gb/s 10Gb/s25Gb/s25Gb/s 25G ICC HTTP:/LONGONE 26 ChatGPT AI AI Lightcounting 5 11%2027 200 2023 800G 2026 30 2023 AI 2023 16.2%5G 13.10%34.10%Lightcounting 2028 35 DW M 32%28%AI 800G 1.6T 2.3 AI2028 35 Lightcounting CAGR 11%Lightcounting Lightcounting 800G HTTP:/LONGONE 27 2015 42%58%2020 51%AI 2024 61%39%2022 Lightcounting 2016 2022 Coherent 2.3 Lightcounting 58%49%39%42%51%61%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2020 2024E HTTP:/LONGONE 28 SiGe/Si SOI CMOS 400G DML EML 400G Lightcounting SiP SiP 2022 24%2028 44%Lightcounting 2.3 44%24%HTTP:/LONGONE 29 CPO 800G CPO ASIC CPO CPO CPO 800G CPO 1.6T CPO LightCounting AI 10 CPO 50%CPO 800G 1.6T 2024 2025 2026 2027 Yole 2022 CPO 3800 2033 26 2022-2033 46%LPO CPO LPO DSP/CDR Yole CPO CPO 2.3 CPO Pluggable()SerDes(AISC)NPO NPO CPO Socketed()HTTP:/LONGONE 30 1 2 昇 PCB 2.3 PCB HTTP:/LONGONE 31 AI A HTTP:/LONGONE 32 2014 2022(688041.SH)CPU DCU CPU x86 DCU GPGPU AI 3.1 CPU DCU AI iFind 49 107 378 5 5 129 192 42 325 786 1502 239 020040060080010001200140016002018 2019 2020 20213000 5000 7000 8000 2022 2023 100%7000 CPU 2021 65%685.8%169.5%126.1%121.8%3.2%33.2%52.8%935.7%145.7%38.3%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%1000%-10000100020003000400050006000 83.8%37.3%50.5%56.0%52.4%60.6%-372.3%-36.2%-8.1%18.9%21.9%30.9%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%(%)(%)HTTP:/LONGONE 33 CPU DCU GPGPU CPU DCU 1 DCU DCU LLaMa GPT Bloom ChatGLM DCU AI 2 3.1 AI CPU HTTP:/LONGONE 34 2016 2020(688256.SH)IP AI AI 3.2 AI IP 2023 95%79 86 80 219 109 21 175 38 5 296 326 456 459 117 69 22 7 1 0 0 3 12 0 0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 IP 95.0%4.6%0.4%iFind 279.4%3.4%57.1%1.1%-44.8%-2772.3%63.2%-89.9%-52.3%14.5%-3000%-2500%-2000%-1500%-1000%-500%0%500%-1500-1000-50005001000 99.9%68.2%65.4%62.4%65.8%69.8%-35.1%-265.6%-94.7%-115.1%-181.7%-569.7%-700%-600%-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%(%)(%)HTTP:/LONGONE 35 AIGC ISV ISV 3.2 AI HTTP:/LONGONE 36 2004 2019(688008.SH)AI PCIe Retimer MXC CKD CPU AI 3.3 2023 98%iFind 1749 1721 1794 1717 2735 910 9 16 30 845 937 14 1 3 0500100015002000250030002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 98.1%1.5%0.4%-1.1%5.0%40.5%43.3%-47.1%26.6%18.3%-24.9%56.7%-76.6%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%05001000150020002500300035004000 70.5%74.0%72.3%48.1%46.4%59.6%41.9%53.7%60.5%32.4%35.4%15.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%(%)(%)HTTP:/LONGONE 37 JEDEC DDR5 J EDEC DDR2-DDR5 2024 1 4 DDR5(DDR 5 RCD04)7200 MT/s DDR5 RCD 50%CPU 2023 12 18 CPU CPU 48 96 260MB DDR5 5600MT/s CPU UPI 20GT/s LINPACK 40%3.3 DDR5 CPU HTTP:/LONGONE 38(300308.SZ)Lightcounting 2022 Coherent 3.4 2023 98%iFind 4998 4631 6510 7261 9413 3927 354 327 229 77 159 127 186 107 02000400060008000100002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 98.1%1.9%27.3%27.1%25.4%25.6%29.3%31.7%12.1%10.8%12.4%11.5%12.8%18.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%(%)(%)-7.7%48.2%9.2%25.3%2.4%-17.6%68.6%1.3%39.6%52.0%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%020004000600080001000012000 HTTP:/LONGONE 39 100G 200G 400G 800G 5G FTTX AI 800G 2023 ChatGPT AI 800G 800G 800G 1.6T 2024 3.4 800G 1.6T HTTP:/LONGONE 40 2005 2015(300308.SZ)3.5 2023 60%iFind 18.1%67.0%18.2%15.9%35.6%22.9%67.5%9.8%31.5%58.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200400600800100012001400 51.3%52.2%52.8%49.7%51.6%52.9%30.7%32.0%32.5%29.9%33.8%36.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%(%)(%)391 475 744 920 960 427 44 35 117 85 218 223 13 27 19 14 0200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1光无源器件 光有源器件 其他64.2%33.6%2.2%光无源器件光有源器件其他 HTTP:/LONGONE 41 AI 400G 800G 2023 2024 2 27&OSA BOX COB TO ODM/OEM 1.6T/800G 2024 3 26 28 49 OFC2024 1.6T/800G Mux TOSA Demux POSA Lensed FAU 3.5 AI HTTP:/LONGONE 42 2 00 8 2016(300502.SZ)5G 100G 200G 400G 800G 5G 3.6 800G 2023 95%1.6T 800G 400G iFind 53.3%71.5%45.6%13.8%-13.6%568.7%131.0%34.6%36.5%-43.7%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0500100015002000250030003500 19.5%34.7%36.9%32.2%36.7%28.2%4.2%18.3%24.6%22.8%27.3%20.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%(%)(%)634 1101 1942 2840 3249 1262 85 43 34 43 26 3 41 21 22 25 36 40 05001000150020002500300035002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 PON 96.7%0.3%3.1%PON HTTP:/LONGONE 43 5G 100G 200G 400G 800G 5G 25G 50G 100G 200G AI AIGC 800G 800G 400G 400G ZR/ZR+LPO 800G OFC2023 1.6T 3.6 1.6T LPO HTTP:/LONGONE 44 2001 2022Q 2 2023Q1 4 5 3 3.7 2023 55%iFind 8.3%13.3%7.3%6.6%-18.1%7.5%36.3%16.4%7.3%-15.8%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000600070008000 19.8%21.2%23.0%24.2%23.6%21.8%6.3%6.1%7.5%8.7%8.9%9.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%(%)(%)2940 3272 3434 3848 3657 1568 1888 1958 2473 2602 3210 1230 101 108 139 37 45 18 0100020003000400050002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1传输 接入和数据 其他55.7%43.7%0.6%传输接入和数据其他 HTTP:/LONGONE 45 100G 200G 400G 800G 800G 1.6T OFC2023 demo CPO LPO 100G 200G 400G 800G 3.7 CPO 800G HTTP:/LONGONE 46 2013 2022 2.5G 10G 25G 50G IDM MOCVD 3.8 IDM iFind 15.5%187.0%-0.5%21.9%-51.8%-15.0%497.0%20.9%5.3%-71.0%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%050100150200250300 70 81 233 232 237 56 0 1 3 0 45 2 0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 48.6%45.0%68.2%65.2%61.9%39.1%22.1%16.2%33.8%41.1%35.5%23.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%(%)(%)92.0%5.2%2.9%2023 90%HTTP:/LONGONE 47 AI 25G 400G/800G 10G/25G/50G/100G/CW 25G 2.5G 10G 25G IDM 25G 3.8 25G 100GEML HTTP:/LONGONE 48 AI A HTTP:/LONGONE 494.1 iFind 2023 2024 3 13 PS 3 13 2023 HTTP:/LONGONE 504.2 Wind 2024/3/13 A 300 PB 5 10 8.07%8.3%PE 5 10 16.47%22.06%PB 5 10 6.43%14.13%PE 5 10 46.38%31.43%AI AI AI AI HTTP:/LONGONE 51 AI A HTTP:/LONGONE 52 1 AI AI 2 AI AI 3 AI AI 5 HTTP:/LONGONE 53 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%HTTP:/LONGONE 54 1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333275 18221959689 8610 59707105 18221959689 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089Y O UT H A N K规范 协同务实 创新 HTTP:/LONGONE 55
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