资源描述
2024 3 19 S1060523110001 S1060122070024 2023 2023Q4 94 5.4%21.9%2023 346 32.6%47 LCE Atacama 17 LCE yoy+8.2%2024 Finniss Greenbushes 2024 23Q3-24Q2 10.Mt Cattlin 2024 24Q1-24Q4 13 2023 7.5 18 2.3 LCE 2024 2023.10.19 6 LCE 23Q4 Greenbushes 19.4%Pilgangoora 50.3%Mt Cattlin 70.9%Atacama 46.7%Pilgangoora 14.9%Atacama LCE 35.2%36.3%23Q4 22Q4 Finniss 2023 NAL 23Q4 Q-1 M+1 2023Q4 Greenbushes Q-1 M-1 M+1 M Q-1 35%-40%2024-50%-30%-10%10%30%23-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-1124-0124-03 399366.SZ 300(000300.SH)000819.SH 2/21 Pilbara Core ALB Arcadium 2024 Centenario Sal De Vida Cauchari OPEX+CAPEX(5)0.85-1.1/CRBIR 2023 778.1GWh 42.5%2024 2 3 CIES 2023 26.6GW 21.3GW 97.5%80.3%300%2024 1-2 131%Bikita 3.5 2023 8.88/2.4/2/1 2 3 1ZFUyRrMtQmNrPmPmRoRnM9P8Q7NtRmMtRrNlOnNsRiNsQpP6MrRyQuOnQrNuOnRqN 3/21.6 1.1 2023.6 1.2 2024.9 1.3 2024.10 1.4.10.11 2.1 23Q4.11 2.2.12 2.3 Q-1 M+1.13.14 3.1 2024.14 3.2.16.18 4.1.18 4.2.19.20.20 4/21 1 22Q1-23Q4.6 2 22Q1-23Q4 LCE.6 3 22Q1-23Q4 Greenbushes.6 4 22Q1-23Q4 Pilgangoora.6 5 22Q1-23Q4 Mt Cattlin.7 6 22Q1-23Q4 Mt Marion.7 7 22Q1-23Q4 Wodgina.7 8 22Q1-23Q4 Finniss.7 9.8 10 Atacama-SQM.9 11 Olaroz Allkem).9 12 2024.9 13 2024 Finniss.9 14 2024 LCE.10 15 LCE.10 16.11 17/.12 18(CIF,$/.12 19/.13 20.13 21 EBITDA Margin.13 22 2023Q4.13 23.14 24.14 25 Pilbara 2024.15 26 Finniss-BP33.15 27 ALB.15 28 ALB.15 29 ALB.16 30 ALB 2023Q1-2023Q4 EBITDA Margin.16 31 Arcadium 2024.16 32 Arcadium Lithium.16 33 2024.17 34 James Bay.17 35 LCE.17 36.18 37.18 38.18 39.18 40 MW.19 41.19 y8qa+rlSa829D4TOX9U+fLzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVk15cMDQh+ikURgvN9DJpEx 5/21 42.19 43.19 6/21 1.1 2023 2023 Finniss Bald Hill Mt Holland greenbushes Pilgangoora cattlin Marion Wodgina 22Q2 2023 94 5.4%21.9%LCE 12.2 0.6%14.1%23Q4 86 3.7%12.9%2023 346 32.6%47 LCE 331 26.7%1 22Q1-23Q4 2 22Q1-23Q4 LCE Greenbushes 2023Q4 35.8 1.9 5.6%13.5%27.5 28.8%29.8%CGP1 CGP2 CGP3 52/,2025 CGP4 52/,2027 Pilgangoora 2023Q4 17.6 8.5%22%16 7.6%9.3%P680 10/P1000 32 100/P680 24Q3 P1000 25Q1 2023 1 Pilbara 16 31 2025 2026 26-31 Ngungaju 23Q3 170 1.27%Li2O 3 22Q1-23Q4 Greenbushes 4 22Q1-23Q4 Pilgangoora IGO Pilbara-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%010203040506070809010022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4()()qoq()qoq()0246810121422Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4Bald Hill FinnissWodgina Mt MarionMt Cattlin Pilgangoora(Ngungaju)Greenbushes-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0510152025303540455022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 qoq-()qoq-()-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0246810121416182022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 qoq-()qoq-()7/21 Mt Marion 2023 6 90 SC4 SC6 60 2022 2023Q4 Marion 16.6 yoy+37.2%qoq+29.7%23Q4 17.2 yoy+48.3%qoq+34.4%Mt Cattlin 2023Q4 7 yoy+325.4%qoq-3.8%6 yoy+282.2%qoq-21.7%MRL 2023 68%5 22Q1-23Q4 Mt Cattlin 6 22Q1-23Q4 Mt Marion MRL Arcadium Wodgina MRL 2023 Wodgina 2024 1 25/23Q4Wodgina 11.5 2.2%25%6798+42%14.2 49.5%127.2%23Q3 6474+52%Finniss 2024 2024 1 5 Core Finniss Grants BP33 2023 Finniss 28 2024 7 22Q1-23Q4 Wodgina 8 22Q1-23Q4 Finniss MRL core lithium-100%-50%0%50%100%150%010000200003000040000500006000070000800009000022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 qoq-()qoq-()-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000020000022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 qoq-()qoq-()-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%02000040000600008000010000012000014000016000022Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 qoq-()qoq-()0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0500010000150002000025000300003500023Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 qoq-()qoq-()8/21 Bald Hill 23Q4 2023Q4 MRL Alita(Bald Hill)Alita MRL Bald Hill100%Bald Hill 23Q4 2.6 2 979/5.6%15.5(SC6)Mt Holland 2023Q4 Mt Holland SQM 2024 23Q3-24Q2 10 38/Kwinana 5 2025H1 Kathleen Valley 2023 250 300 2024 2023 9 2027 400/2029 9 23Q4 qoq 2023 yoy 23Q4 2023 greenbushes 35.8-13.5%152.3 13.0%27.5 143.2 CGP3(2025)CGP4(2027)52,Pilgangoora 17.6 22.0%63.1 21.8%16.0 62.7 P680+10 P1000+32 P680 24Q3 P1000 25Q1 Mt Cattlin 7.0-3.8%23.9 122.8%6.0 20.5 Mt Marion 16.6 29.7%53.4 15.8%17.2 54.6 2023.6 90(SC4)Wodgina 11.5 2.2%44.0 150.0%14.2 42.0 2024.1,Wodgina(25wt/n)Finniss 2.9 39.6%6.8 3.1 6.0 2024.1 Grants 2024 Bald Hill 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.0 23Q4 Bald Hill MRL 100%15.5/(SC6)Mt Holland 23Q4 24 10 Kathleen V alley 2023 250 300 2024 2024 23Q3-24Q2 Atacama Olaroz Atacama-2023Q4 5.1 17.8%18.6%2023 17 2022 8.2%2023-2025 21 24 26.5 Olaroz 1.75 2.5 LCE 2023Q4 Olaroz 4144 6991 6.9%53.5%2023 Olaroz 1.78 1.79 27.2%40%9/21 10 Atacama-SQM 11 Olaroz Allkem)SQM Allkem 1.2 2024 2024 18 2.3 LCE 1.IGO Greenbushes 2024 23Q3-24Q2 10 140-150 130-140 10 1.3 LCE 2.Mt Cattlin 2024 24Q1-24Q4 13 2023 7.5 1 L CE 3.Finniss 28 2024 2024 2024 8-9 9-9.5 5.5%4.77%4.77%9.2-10.4 9-10 8-9 9-10 1.1 LCE 19.3/2.3 LCE 4.Arcadium Mt Marion 2024 SC6 38-44 2023 2023 22Q3-23Q2 13.3%2024 2022 Wodgina SC6 2024 42.5-45 16.4%12 2024 13 2024 Finniss core lithium-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%012345622Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4-qoq()-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01000200030004000500060007000800022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4-qoq-qoq-14520.59.8 4143.8 135139.3 4143.8 020406080100120140160Greenbush Mt Cattlin Finniss Mt Marion Wodgina()()10/21 1.3 2024 2024 2023.10.19 6 LCE 14 2024 LCE 15 LCE 1.4 2023 110 51.79 31.1%70 31.96 30.1%20 2023 24%2022 14.65 85%6 840 180 8.6 260 2023-2025 20 35 50 2023-2025 70%30%1 200 30 2023-2025 1960 3430 4900 600 1050 1500 400 550 4800 6600 1520253035404522Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q4(2024.3.5)(2023.10.19)(2023.3.14)0501001502002502021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 11/21 16 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2030E 1790 3652 6462 10722 12282 12290/LCE 13 26 44 70 80 80,LCE 18 15 20 35 50 70 70%,LCE 7 6 14 25 35 49 1456 1200 2800 4900 7000 9800 1019 840 1960 3430 4900 6860 546 440 600 1050 1500 2100 SMM 2 7750 1 33%3 1.27 64%4.4 30%Mysteel 3 4000 10%喆 60/2022 Mysteel 35/2000/3 2.1 23Q4 2023 ifind Li2O:5.5%-6%2024.3.12 1050/2023 2023.1.3 6025/82.6%2024 3 23Q4 2023Q4 Greenbushes FOB 3016/19.4%Pilgangoora CIF 11 13/50.3%Mt Cattlin CIF 763/70.9%SQM Atacama 23Q4 1.6/46.7%72.9%12/21 17/18(CIF,$/Core lithium 2.2 1 IGO 2023Q4 Greenbushes C1 357/36.3%COGS 417/42.8%58.6%COGS 614/18.1%/2 Pilbara 23Q4 Pilgangoora(FOB)416/14.9%9.5%CIF 11%523/20.5%31.9%3 Arcadium Allkem Livent 2023H2 Mt Marion FOB 548/SC6 FOB 844/2024 1150-1250/2023 Marion 24H2 FOB 500/4 Core Lithium 23Q4 Finniss FOB,1953/3.4%Core lithium 5 MRL 2023H2 Wodgina FOB C1+845/SC6 FOB 875/2024 875-950/22024.9 FOB 550/Wodgina 18712/63.5%45.0%1 SQM 23Q4 Atacama 1.1/57.8%35.2%2 Arcadium 23Q4 Olaroz COGS 6150/1.0%31.4%50015002500350045005500650022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4greenbushes FOB Pilgangoora CIF,SC6 cattlin CIF Marion()Fastmarkets SMM Asian Metal Average 13/21 19/20 SQM Arcadium EBITDA Margin 2023Q4 COGS/23Q4 2022Q4 2023Q1 Finniss 23Q4 I GO 2023 NAL&21 EBITDA Margin 22 2023Q4 2.3 Q-1 M+1 Q-1 2023Q4 Greenbushes Q-1 02004006008001000120014001600180022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4greenbushes Pilgangoora cattlinmarion Finniss Wodgina01000020000300004000050000600007000022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4Atacama Olaroz(FOB)Atacama Olaroz-COGS 57%91%42%20%50%89%30%-20%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%liventIGO-SQM-ALB23Q3 23Q4-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%PilgancattlinmarionFinnissNALOlarozAtacama 2022/14/21 M-1 M+1 2024 M Q-1 35%-40%Pilbara CIF(5.5%-6%,CIF)24Q1 M 50%23 24 ifind ifind 3.1 2024 Pilbara-Pilgangoora 2024 2024(23Q3-24Q2)5500-10000 P680 P1000 2024 8.75-9.75 8.20-8.75 P680 P1000 P680 P1000 4.04 5.60 Pilbara 23Q3 23Q4 3.98 2.22 24H1 2.275 23H2 63.3%Core Lithium-Finniss 2024 BP33 45-50 36-37 35-40 27-29 BP33 18.5/Finniss 0200400600800100012001400160018002024.1 2024.2 2024.3“Q-1”23Q4“M”0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1-36.6%-38.5%-35.1%/15/21 25 Pilbara 2024 26 Finniss-BP33 Pilbara Core Lithium ALB 2024 16-18 2023 20.9%3 ALB Greenbushes 49%+Wodgina 50%+Atacama247 LCE+Silver Peak 100%Atacama La Negra Wodgina Kemerton 60%5 2022 10 ALB 2.5/LCE()5/LCE 2024 2021-2023 ALB 8.5 11.9 16 2024 10%-20%2024-2027 20%-30%27 ALB 28 ALB ALB ALB,:2024 23Q1-23Q4 ALB EBITDA Margin 81%27%M-1 2023 12 2023 12 11%24Q1 EBITDA Margin 9.649.258.4757.88.08.28.48.68.89.09.29.49.69.8P680+P1000 2024 Pilbara 47.5 36.5 37.5 28.0 05101520253035404550 BP33-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050010001500200025002020 2021 2022 2023 2024EALB()YOY 16/21 29 ALB 30 ALB 2023Q1-2023Q4 EBITDA Margin ALB ALB Arcadium Lithium Allkem Livent 2024 1 4 2024 F nix Sal de Vida James Bay Nemaska 2024 4.5 6.25 1 1.25 2023 12 31 Arcadium Lithium 8.92 2.97 2024 5.5-7.5 31 Arcadium 2024 32 Arcadium Lithium Arcadium Arcadium 3.2 2024 Centenario 2.4 LCE Sal De Vida 1.5 LCE+3 LCE Cauchari 2.5 LCE OPEX 4000-5000/5 CAPEX 4300-6700/Centenario Sal De Vida I II Cauchari 1.1/LCE 0.95/LCE 0.84/LCE 0.94/LCE 1.5/3 3 051015202530354045502021 2022 2023 2024E 2027E 2030E 81%66%36%27%0%20%40%60%80%100%23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4EBITDA Margin050100150200250300 F nix Sal de Vida James Bay Nemaska 8.922.97012345678910$225-325$225-300$100-125 17/21 Allkem 2024 James Bay 31.1 5.6%OPEX 407/CAPEX 5 245/652/1000/5.5%-6%2-3 33 2024 34 James Bay Allkem 2023-2025 2024-2025 35 LCE 020004000600080001000012000Centenario Sal De Vida I Sal De Vida II CauchariCAPEX OPEX/LCE 18/21 4.1 2023 958.7 949.5 35.8%37.9%31.6%5.9 829.2 33.5 120.3 77.6 2024 2023 2024 1150 25%2023 778.1GWh 42.5%616.3GWh 32.4 1-12 531.4GWh 68.3%59.9%245.1GWh 15.3%2 2023 2024 1 50.4GWh 82.3%2 SMM 3 36 37 ifind 2 38 39 02040608010012014001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0102030405060708021/0821/1122/0222/0522/0822/1123/0223/0523/0823/1124/02 GWh0246810121416180510152025303520-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07 23-01 23-07 24-01-,GWH,05000100001500020000250003000035000010000200003000040000500006000021-03 21-09 22-03 22-09 23-03 23-09 24-03(,)(,)19/21 4.2 CIES 2023 48.6GW 42.0GW 92.7%2023 93%38.9GW 2022 CIES 2024 2023 26.6GW 21.3GW 97.5%2022 4 2023 80.1%CESA 2024 1-2 2912MW 131%40 MW 41 CESA CIES CESA GGII 2023 167GWh 81.5%23%2022 20%2023 25.2GWh 2024 GGII 2024 1100GWh 27%TWh 200GWh 25%42 43 0500100015002000250030003500400045001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024140%192%288%121%94%93%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0510152025303540452020 2021 2022 2023,GW,GW YOY-YOY-14%7%15%16%19%19%20%12%9%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%05101520252023.1-5Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24 GWH qoq-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01234562023.1-5Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24 GWH qoq 20/21 2024 2024 3 2023-2024 Bikita 3.5 2023 8.88/2.4/2/1 2 3 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2024 4008866338 5023 B 25 1333 26 4 1 B 25
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