资源描述
Table_MainInfo/2024 03 04 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-24.60%-16.39%-8.18%0.03%8.24%16.45%2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 Table_ReportInfo 1 2024.02.22 12 2024.01.28 12 2024.01.19 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)50949926 Email:S0850515040002:Tel:010-56760090 Email:S0850523070002 2023 NBV Table_Summary 2023 1 2023 2022 I9 2023 1 28bps 2 2023 3 FVOCI 4 EV EV NBV 1 2023+24.3%+35.0%+37.1%Q4+2.7%-21.6%Q3 2 2023 NBV+12%+34%+28%+15%+52%Q4 NBV 22 2023 NBV margin 2024 3 2023 2023 1 2023+6.3%+1.4%+11.4%+5.3%+6.2%+5.6%+7.4%-8.7%+19.2%2 Q4 Q4+5.0%+6.4%+5.9%Q3-0.3pct+0.2pct+0.1pct-6.6%-16.5%+18.8%3 2023 2023 97.9%100.2%98.8%1 2 3 1 2.37%3 2024 3 1 0.34-0.65 2024E P/EV 2 1.2023“”.6 1.1.6 1.2 2023+.6 1.3.8 2.2023.9 3.2023 NBV.11 3.1 Q4.11 3.2.12 3.3 NBV 2023 NBV.13 3.4 EV EV/NBV.15 4.+5.7%.16 5.“”.17 ZXDWvMqNoNqRsMpMqNsNpO6M9R6MpNnNtRrNeRqQtQfQnNmQaQpPvNMYnRsQuOmOsO 3 1 2023.6 2 2023.6 3 2023 10%.6 4 2023 1%.6 5 2023%.7 6 2023%.7 7 2023 Q3.8 8 2023 Q3.8 9 2023.8 10 2020-2023.8 11 2020-2023.8 12 2022.9 13 2023.10 14 2019.10 15.10 16.10 17%.10 18 2023.12 19 2023Q4.12 20.12 21.12 22.13 23 NBV.14 24 Q4 NBV.14 25 2023 NBV.14 26 2023 NBV margin.15 27 50bps EV.15 28 50bps NBV.15 29 50bps EV.16 30 50bps NBV.16 4 31 2023 5.7%.16 32 2023.16 33 2023 Q4 Q3.17 34 2021-2023.17 35%.18 36 2024%.18 5 1 2023.9 2 2023.11 3 2023 NBV.13 4.19 6 1.2023 1.1 2023 1 2023 37640 10%2022 7pct 2020 3.5%2 2023 13607 7%2022 2pct 1 2023 18%25%37%20%2%14%8%0%3%10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05000100001500020000250003000035000400002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%2 2023 16%11%9%13%10%8%2%-2%9%7%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%02000400060008000100001200014000160002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%2023 30.0 2.7 10%1%2022 1pct 9pct 3 2023 10%23%22%22%11%9%12%13%7%9%10%0%5%10%15%20%25%0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%4 2023 1%56%21%7%9%7%23%11%6%-8%1%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050001000015000200002500030000350002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%1.2 2023+2023 2023 300 A-11.4%-5.2%-19.4%-3.7%2022-21.6%-18.7%-29.4%-15.1%300 A-7.0%-3.8%-5.6%-4.4%2022+1.8%+2.9%+2.5%+2.1%7 5 2023%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%300 A Wind 2023 1 2023 1 28 2.93%2 3 8 8 21 2.54%3 8 4 11 PMI 12 2.56%2bps 2023 28bps Q4 12bps 2022 6bps Q4 8bps 2.7%6 2023%2.93 2.54 2.72 2.56 2.502.552.602.652.702.752.802.852.902.953.00 Wind Q4 2023 46.0%Q3 1.2pct+8.6%12.6%0.3pct 0.7pct 2023 2.23%0.69pct 1.53pct 3.22%0.06pct 1.39pct 8 7 2023 Q3 9.5%9.5%8.9%8.6%42.9%43.6%44.8%46.0%8.0%7.8%7.6%7.2%5.2%5.5%5.6%5.4%10.0%9.5%9.4%9.1%24.4%24.1%23.7%23.7%0%20%40%60%80%100%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 8 2023 Q3 21.0%19.2%18.4%18.1%34.5%35.4%36.3%37.8%6.7%6.5%6.6%6.3%8.2%9.1%9.0%8.8%6.4%6.3%6.3%6.5%23.2%23.6%23.4%22.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 9 2023 3.66%3.47%3.76%3.40%3.22%2.92%2.23%2.82%1.56%1.83%5.24%4.33%3.28%3.22%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 1.3 2022 2023 197.1%128.2%186.7%110.5%2024 2 2 136 2023 14 10 2020-2023 197.1%238.2%186.7%285.3%-20%30%80%130%180%230%280%330%2020 2021 2022 2023 11 2020-2023 128.2%206.2%110.5%245.6%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%2020 2021 2022 2023 9 2023 9 10 1 100 2000 500 5000 95%100 500 90%2 10 35%40%12 2022 100713 3917584491051611551061412020406080100120A B C D 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 2.2023 2023 1 2023 2022 2 I9 FVTPL FVTPL 2023 3 2023 128 58 70 90 2022 111 47-37%137 2022 37 2023 25-77%2023 1 2023 2022Q1 2023Q1 2022Q2 2023Q2 2022Q3 2023Q3 2022 2023 154 273 78%239 88-63%162-6-104%555 355-36%258 384 49%450 315-30%221 177-20%928 876-6%91 116 27%109 67-39%105 48-54%306 231-24%32 69 115%60 31-49%21-4-121%113 95-15%36 117 230%147 82-45%60 6-90%243 205-15%570 960 68%1006 582-42%569 221-61%2145 1763-18%2023 10 13 2023 2.8%3.2%2.3%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023Q1-3 2019-2022 2023*2 Q3*4/3 14 2019 3.8%4.0%4.0%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023Q1-3 2019-2022 2023*2 Q3*4/3 2023 1 5.63%A 2 2024 1 24 15 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 wind 16 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 wind 17%1.645.634.043.263.160.01.02.03.04.05.06.0 wind 2024.03.01 12 TTM 11 1 I17 OCI FVOCI 2023 2 2023 2 2023 2022 2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q3 3660 4966 36%4779 31%4747 30%-1%8692 9143 5%9181 6%9031 4%-2%1964 2484 26%2430 24%2385 21%-2%980 1216 24%1123 15%1083 11%-4%2229 2432 9%2418 8%2404 8%-1%17525 20242 16%19931 14%19651 12%-1%2023 3.2023 NBV 3.1 Q4 2023+9.4%+10.0%+4.2%-25.8%+9.4%+79.2%+69.6%+88.8%+103.5%+243.0%+69.9pct+59.6pct+84.5pct+233.6pct+16.0%+28.9%+37.9%+9.9%+43.7%Q3-25.7%+25.4%+44.8%+24.1%-1.6%Q2 Q3 7 8 Q3 Q2 2023+24.3%Q1-Q4+10.0%+69.6%+25.4%+2.7%Q4 Q3 22.7pct+35.0%H1 H2+38.8%+28.0%H2 H1 10.8pct Q4/3 37.1%Q1-Q4+9.4%+243.0%-1.6%-21.6%34.1%Q1-Q4+47.9%+95.6%-9.2%-14.8%12 18 2023 9141000171157 1641060144823622023616.0%44.8%37.9%40.2%43.7%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%02004006008001000120014001600 2022Q1-3 2023Q1-3%2021 2022 19 2023Q4 431.5 216.8 203.8 181.4 474.8 367.7 255.5 186.3 10.0%69.6%25.4%2.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%050100150200250300350400450500Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42022 2023%20-600%-400%-200%0%200%400%600%21-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%3.2 2023 13 2023 66 36-9.5%-19.1%-0.2%-3.7%2023 21.9 17.1 7.9-21.5%2023 2022-13.2%-18.8%2023 1 28.6%2 94.4%3 13 22 74.397.9149.5 157.8143.9161.3137.882.072.9 66.1 66.063.687.0111.1138.6141.7116.7102.460.044.537.4 36.034.448.265.387.484.779.074.952.531.221.917.525.932.834.837.050.760.638.919.717.114.218.925.624.639.141.418.69.77.90501001502002503003504004505002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023Q3 2014-2022 2023 3.3 NBV 2023 NBV 2023 2023 NBV+12%+34%+28%+15%+52%2020 Q4 NBV 22 3 2023 NBV/2022 2023 2022 2023E 2022 2023E-14.0%36004 40180 11.6%23824 33574 40.9%28820 38561 33.8%4996 4987-0.2%7548 10328 36.8%9205 11792 28.1%1657 1464-11.6%2112 2474 17.1%2423 2794 15.3%1493 2490 66.8%2669 4044 51.5%79121 97803 23.6%2022 2023 NBV NBV NBV 14 23 NBV-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%2022-2023 24 Q4 NBV 1131965845920499613702122587614498721.1%86.2%28.6%-0.2%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%0200040006000800010000120001400016000Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 E 2022 NBV 2023NBV%2022-2023 25 2023 NBV 3406219019521657397133902967146416.6%54.8%52.0%-11.6%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%050010001500200025003000350040004500Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 E 2022NBV 2023NBV%2022-2023 2023 NBV margin 15 2024 26 2023 NBV margin 13.4%43.7%47.9%22.8%47.9%6.8%32.4%18.0%11.4%5.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2011-2022 2023 3.4 EV EV/NBV 5%EV/NBV EV/NBV EV/NBV EV NBV NBV 27 50bps EV-9.1%-5.1%-7.6%-9.0%-12.0%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001600000%2023 50bps 28 50bps NBV-27.7%-14.1%-29.0%-65.9%-79.3%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000%2023 50bps 16 29 50bps EV 2.1%-5.1%1.5%1.8%5.3%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001600000%2023 50bps 100bps 30 50bps NBV 6.1%-14.1%5.6%9.4%34.5%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000%2023 50bps 100bps 4.+5.7%2023+5.7%6.7%2023+6.3%+1.4%+11.4%2022-2.0pct-9.0pct-0.2pct 63.5%0.6pct 0.1pct-1.0pct 0.5pct 31 2023 5.7%8.3%8.8%7.5%6.3%10.4%5.0%1.8%1.4%11.6%14.3%11.8%11.4%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%2022 2023H1 2023Q1-3 2023 32 2023 32.7%34.3%33.1%32.5%20.0%17.6%18.2%19.0%11.5%11.8%12.0%12.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%2022 2023H1 2023Q1-3 2023 2023 Q1-Q4+10.1%+7.1%+1.6%+2.7%Q3 Q4 1 Q1-Q4+6.3%+5.1%+5.7%+5.7%+5.5%+6.2%+5.5%Q4+5.0%+6.4%+5.9%Q3-0.3pct+0.2pct+0.1pct 2 Q3 Q1-Q4+11.7%+12.5%-5.6%-5.0%Q3 Q4 Q4-6.6%-16.5%+18.8%17 33 2023 Q4 Q3 10.2%7.0%4.1%1.7%5.4%4.6%-4.6%0.3%16.8%11.5%6.5%9.9%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023 97.9%99.3%98.7%+1.7pct+1.6pct+1.0pct Q3 7.3 2023 34 2021-2023 99.5%97.6%96.4%97.9%97.9%98.0%100.3%98.0%99.3%100.2%99.0%97.3%97.9%98.7%98.8%94.0%95.0%96.0%97.0%98.0%99.0%100.0%101.0%2021 2022 2023H1 2023Q1-3 2023E 2021-2022 20232 2021-2022 2023 5.1 2024 NBV margin 2024 1 2 NBV margin 2024 NBV margin 18 35%1.52.02.53.03.54.02015-05-11 2015-06-28 2015-08-26 2015-10-24 2022-09-15 2023-06-08 2023-09-01 2023-12-22 5 wind 5 2 2024 1 2 28 10 30 2.34%2.49%2 2024 FVOCI 2023 2024+FVOCI 36 2024%2.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.03.12023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-0210 30 wind 1 2 3 1 2.37%3 2024 3 1 0.34-0.65 2024E P/EV 19 4 EV 1YrVNB A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 42.99 76.34 78.18 85.80 93.82 2.07 1.58 2.14 2.30-A 29.95 42.56 43.54 47.87 52.59 1.58 1.27 1.42 1.62-A 33.15 82.97 81.93 88.77 96.74 1.92 0.78 0.90 0.99-A 25.27 51.80 54.01 58.04 63.25 1.39 0.96 1.23 1.34-A 5.25 6.25 6.41 7.13 8.07 0.09 0.08 0.12 0.14 P/EV VNBX A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 42.99 0.56 0.55 0.50 0.46-16.09-22.24-19.99-22.10-A 29.95 0.70 0.69 0.63 0.57-7.96-10.67-12.61-14.01-A 33.15 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34-25.99-62.80-62.11-63.97-A 25.27 0.49 0.47 0.44 0.40-19.03-30.04-26.73-28.30-A 5.25 0.84 0.82 0.74 0.65-11.07-13.80-15.07-20.42 EPS BVPS A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 42.99 5.56 4.60 4.11 6.85 44.44 47.15 48.60 53.75-A 29.95 1.80 1.14 0.62 1.37 16.93 15.43 16.03 17.34-A 33.15 4.79 3.15 1.58 2.94 34.78 32.98 34.78 39.33-A 25.27 2.79 2.56 1.80 2.64 23.57 23.75 24.61 27.12-A 5.25 0.49 0.55 0.46 0.62 4.96 5.01 5.51 6.13 P/E P/B A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 42.99 7.73 9.34 10.47 6.27 0.97 0.91 0.88 0.80-A 29.95 16.62 26.39 48.02 21.82 1.77 1.94 1.87 1.73-A 33.15 6.92 10.53 20.99 11.26 0.95 1.01 0.95 0.84-A 25.27 9.06 9.88 14.02 9.57 1.07 1.06 1.03 0.93-A 5.25 10.73 9.51 11.34 8.50 1.06 1.05 0.95 0.86 WIND 2023 3 1 20 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%
展开阅读全文