资源描述
1 2 3 4 300500700900110013001-1 2-1 3-1 4-1 5-1 6-1 7-1 8-1 9-1 10-1 11-1 12-12015 2016 2017 2018 20192020 2021 2022 2023 20245 607080901001102012-082013-082014-082015-082016-082017-082018-082019-082020-082021-082022-082023-08247%657075808590951002012-082013-042013-122014-082015-042015-122016-082017-042017-122018-082019-042019-122020-082021-042021-122022-082023-042023-12247%02550751002018-042018-082018-122019-042019-082019-122020-042020-082020-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122023-042023-082023-1287%0204060801002018-042018-082018-122019-042019-082019-122020-042020-082020-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122023-042023-082023-1287%6-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0246810201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 年1-2 月粗钢产量（亿吨）同比增速（右轴）2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E77,904 82,270 80,382 80,837 83,173 92,826 99,634 106,477 103,279 101,300 101,908 100,889 8.72%5.60%-2.29%0.57%2.89%11.61%7.33%6.87%-3.00%-1.92%0.60%-1.00%7 8 1 234-40-200204060025005000750010000125001500017500200002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-12%,%,-60-40-200204060800500010000150002000025000300002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-12%-60-40-2002040608005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-12%-50-2502550750100002000030000400002018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-01:%:%9 10-40-30-20-100102030402014-012014-062014-112015-042015-092016-022016-072016-122017-052017-102018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082024-01:-20-100102030402016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-12%11 12 13-100%0%100%200%300%-500100025004000550070002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-10:(:(14 15 16 17 18 万吨 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023同比 2024E 2024E同比 26,670 27,300 25,200 25,200 27,090 30,422 32,841 32,647 30,747 21,363 18,368-14.02%16,164-12.00%11,430 11,700 10,800 10,800 11,610 12,051 12,509 12,622 12,672 13,863 14,681 5.90%15,122 3.00%13,300 14,000 12,900 12,800 13,600 14,280 14,708 15,297 15,450 14,986 14,537-3.00%14,101-3.00%4,700 5,000 5,000 5,400 5,800 5,580 5,133 5,061 5,304 5,485 5,995 9.30%6,294 5.00%3,100 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,300 3,366 3,491 3,508 3,645 3,849 3,991 3.70%4,191 5.00%1,300 1,300 1,400 1,200 1,400 1,134 1,204 1,264 1,302 1,242 1,388 11.78%1,471 6.00%1,000 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,280 1,349 1,378 1,430 1,462 1,631 11.50%1,712 5.00%500 500 500 500 500 475 474 464 455 463 580 25.20%638 10.00%500 600 600 400 600 661 421 473 997 629 402-36.10%462 15.00%10,319 9,150 9,110 10,131 11,532 17,707 22,275 30,208 27,046 32,454 31,545-2.80%31,545 0.00%总内需 72,819 73,850 69,810 70,731 76,632 86,955 94,405 102,922 99,048 95,797 93,118-2.80%91,701-1.52%5,085 8,420 10,572 10,106 6,541 5,872 5,229 3,555 4,231 5,503 8,790 59.73%9,230 5.00%粗钢总需求 77,904 82,270 80,382 80,837 83,173 92,826 99,634 106,477 103,279 101,300 101,908 0.60%100,930-0.96%粗钢总产量 77,904 82,270 80,382 80,837 83,173 92,826 99,634 106,477 103,279 101,300 101,908 0.60%100,889-1.00%供给-需求-4119 20 21 22 23 24 25 2019 增速 2020 增速 2021 增速 2022 增速 2023E 增速 2024E 增速 80849 3.67%88898 9.95%86857-2.30%86383-0.55%87101 0.83%86927-0.20%149755 3.67%164663 9.95%160883-2.30%160005-0.55%161335 0.83%161012-0.20%47266-1.79%43138-8.73%48208 11.75%43676-9.40%43868 0.44%44590 1.65%87550-1.79%79903-8.73%89295 11.75%80901-9.40%81256 0.44%82593 1.65%7416 2.13%6778-8.60%7763 14.52%7989 2.91%8574 7.33%9432 10.00%13736 2.13%12555-8.60%14379 14.52%14797 2.91%15882 7.33%17470 10.00%7491-3.13%6160-17.76%7034 14.19%6415-8.81%6304-1.72%6304 0.00%13875-3.13%11410-17.76%13030 14.19%11882-8.81%11677-1.72%11677 0.00%5108-1.35%5191 1.63%5378 3.60%5161-4.03%5460 5.79%5732 5.00%9460-1.35%9615 1.63%9961 3.60%9559-4.03%10112 5.79%10618 5.00%2230-7.30%1832-17.85%2225 21.43%2000-10.10%2063 3.15%2084 1.00%4131-7.30%3393-17.85%4121 21.43%3705-10.10%3821 3.15%3859 1.00%全球铁矿需求 237305 1.59%244566 3.06%250178 2.29%240906-3.71%242591 0.70%243605 0.42%103408-6.71%104901 1.44%108248 3.19%107246-0.93%107369 0.11%110330 2.76%30198-21.49%30039-0.53%31493 4.84%30779-2.26%32115 4.34%31500-1.92%RIO TINTO 28119-3.30%28593 1.69%27656-3.28%28325 2.42%29017 2.44%32300 11.31%BHP 24011-0.17%25519 6.28%25450-0.27%25582 0.52%25407-0.69%25500 0.37%FMG 21080 9.51%20750-1.57%23650 13.98%22560-4.61%20830-7.67%21030 0.96%134187 7.06%128653-4.12%144679 12.46%138321-4.39%141087 2.00%143204 1.50%全球铁矿供给 237595 0.60%233554-1.70%252927 8.30%245567-2.91%248456 1.18%253534 2.04%供给-需求 290-11012 2750 4661 5865 9928铁矿供需平衡表（万吨）26 01002003004005002011-032012-032013-032014-032015-032016-032017-032018-032019-032020-032021-032022-032023-032024-03 27 28 29 30/HRB400/Q235B/61.5%/6-8mm(/)(/)2013 3,555 3,775 932 1,603 2,352 228 2482014 3,048 3,356 657 1,262 1,983 367 4752015 2,135 2,307 412 993 1,293 51 222016 2,412 2,826 444 1,317 1,317 111 3262017 3,807 3,862 542 2,055 1,674 945 8002018 4,119 4,178 502 2,370 2,313 1100 9592019 3,882 3,849 699 2,168 2,518 628 3952020 3,716 3,903 796 2,122 2,538 328 3142021 5,046 5,409 1,106 3,096 3,454 587 7502022 4,397 4,479 842 3,204 3,191 331 21320233,925 4,078 898 2,426 2,789197 150 2024E 3,880 4,030 850 2,250 2,600 335 28531 32 33 34 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E168,637 164,465 167,412 170,499 174,245%-2%-2%2%2%2%8,419 6,130 7,857 8,318 8,667%-29%-27%28%6%4%6,379 5,079 5,968 6,419 6,527%-34%-20%18%8%2%0.92 0.74 0.86 0.93 0.9435 0204060801001202019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-12:-100-500501001502002503000100020003000400050006000700080002018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02:()%36 2023 6036/443/5234/281/793/162/2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E98,345 114,019 115,890 117,701 119,512%0%16%2%2%2%8,317 7,178 8,546 8,724 8,851%-18%-14%19%2%1%7,105 5,721 6,556 6,764 6,958%-9%-19%15%3%3%1.41 1.13 1.30 1.34 1.3837 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E1,212 1,353 1,600 1,995 2,412%14%12%18%25%21%165 214 262 313 366%14%29%23%19%17%141 201 237 282 327%17%42%18%19%16%1.78 2.53 2.99 3.56 4.1338 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E1,933 2,526 2,973 3,622 4,345%49%31%18%22%20%225 321 371 478 618%32%43%16%29%29%178 298 305 406 525%25%67%2%33%29%0.53 0.89 0.92 1.22 1.5739 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E7,414 7,815 8,575 9,804 11,072%18%5%9.7%19%13%925 412 499 680 831%47%-55%-3.1%43%22%783 197 362 583 720%42%-75%84.43%38%24%0.40 0.10 0.18 0.30 0.3740 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E698 1,032 1,191 1,389 1,626%28%48%15%17%17%159 249 400 522 660%48%57%61%31%26%181 255 354 465 590%66%41%39%31%27%0.46 0.64 0.89 1.18 1.4941 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E685 872 957 1,263 1,638%14%27%10%32%30%46 84 119 181 227%-34%81%42%52%25%46 80 100 158 194%-25%74%25%57%23%0.20 0.34 0.43 0.68 0.8342 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E31,366 39,555 39,005 42,563 44,031%53%26%-1.39%9%3%907 866 773 891 1,005%57%-5%-11%15%13%591 487 424 511 584%43%-18%-13%21%14%1.55 1.28 1.11 1.34 1.5343 010002000300040005000600070002011-012011-082012-032012-102013-052013-122014-072015-022015-092016-042016-112017-062018-012018-082019-032019-102020-052020-122021-072022-022022-092023-042023-11:44 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E726 1,066 1,066 1,538 1,928%46%47%0%44%25%143 239 310 388 501%18%68%30%25%29%120 193 252 317 411%13%61%30%26%30%0.61 0.97 1.27 1.59 2.0745 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E403 428 615 769 837%57%6%44%25%9%105 99 143 186 200%73%-6%44%30%8%89 99 133 165 179%71%11%35%24%8%1.04 1.15 1.56 1.93 2.0946-30-20-100102030405060702004-022004-112005-082006-052007-022007-112008-082009-052010-022010-112011-082012-052013-022013-112014-082015-052016-022016-112017-082018-052019-022019-112020-082021-052022-022022-112023-08:%146 6030 080 0 04 4510802468101214162008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 47 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E5,974 6,537 7,754 8,365 8,686%21%9%19%8%4%801 809 1,174 1,508 1,686%-2%1%45%28%12%794 1,288 1,588 1,472 1,534%3%62%23%-7%4%0.81 1.32 1.62 1.51 1.5748 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E2,699 2,830 3,421 4,493 4,795%12%5%21%31%7%189 216 394 559 663%-29%14%83%42%19%176 215 353 493 581%-20%22%64%40%18%0.31 0.38 0.63 0.88 1.0449 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E4,226 6,223 7,728 8,154 8,968%7%47%24%6%10%31 447 1,083 1,268 1,445%-93%1361%142%17%14%136 471 852 1,004 1,152%10%247%81%18%15%0.15 0.53 0.96 1.13 1.2950 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E1,123 1,207 1,787 1,964 2,182%27%7%48%10%11%48 84 226 292 392%-31%74%169%29%34%52 73 200 260 352%0%40%172%30%35%0.48 0.67 1.82 2.37 3.2051 52 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E2,303 1,996 2,025 2,772 5,225%41%-13%1%37%89%1,483 1,208 1,157 1,235 1,517%87%-19%-4%7%23%1,435 1,095 1,027 1,096 1,335%105%-24%-6%7%22%3.58 2.73 2.56 2.73 3.3353 0100000200000300000400000500000600000:(99.5%,/)020040060080010001200140016001800:PB(61.5%,/)54 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E7,199 15,579 12,584 11,840 12,790%45%116%-19%-6%8%949 7,527 4,612 3,402 4,009%166%693%-39%-26%18%887 6,320 3,907 2,964 3,486%244%612%-38%-24%18%1.65 11.72 7.25 5.50 6.4755 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E4,157 4,003 4,035 4,453 4,791%-15%-4%1%10%8%1,258 1,430 1,617 1,814 1,934%-39%14%13%12%7%1,093 1,141 1,272 1,454 1,575%-33%4%11%14%8%0.72 0.76 0.84 0.96 1.0456 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E6,567 5,053 6,798 8,709 10,414%11%-23%35%28%20%2,679 1,110 2,052 2,941 4,016%29%-59%85%43%37%1,301 666 1,245 1,745 2,277%34%-49%87%40%30%1.99 1.02 1.91 2.67 3.4957 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E36,473 36,393 31,703 32,814 33,887%58%0%-13%4%3%9,038 6,832 5,102 5,316 5,688%155%-24%-25%4%7%6,091 4,732 3,148 3,356 3,643%299%-22%-33%7%9%2.18 1.69 1.12 1.20 1.301.02 0.71 0.50 0.58 0.6558()20240416()(X)2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E600507.SH 4.19 0.29 0.43 0.50 14.45 9.74 8.38000932.SZ 5.53 0.74 0.86 0.93 7.47 6.43 5.95600019.SH 6.90 0.50 0.57 0.63 13.80 12.11 10.95000959.SZ 3.41 0.16 0.24 0.32 21.31 14.21 10.66600782.SH 3.97 0.39 0.49 0.59 10.18 8.10 6.73001203.SZ 10.20 0.76 0.84 0.96 13.42 12.14 10.63000923.SZ 18.56 1.91 2.67 3.49 9.72 6.95 5.32002756.SZ 50.12 7.25 5.50 6.47 6.91 9.11 7.75300855.SZ 22.24 0.89 1.18 1.49 24.99 18.85 14.93603995.SH 16.14 1.23 1.34 1.53 13.12 12.04 10.55000708.SZ 15.38 1.13 1.34 1.38 13.61 11.48 11.14600399.SH 5.70 0.18 0.30 0.37 31.67 19.00 15.41002318.SZ 23.30 1.62 1.51 1.57 14.38 15.43 14.84300881.SZ 25.42 2.00 2.60 3.52 12.71 9.78 7.22000778.SZ 3.91 0.34 0.43 0.45 11.50 9.09 8.69002443.SZ 6.35 0.60 0.74 0.90 10.58 8.58 7.06601686.SH 6.40 0.62 0.74 0.85 10.32 8.65 7.53002978.SZ 34.76 2.56 2.73 3.33 13.58 12.73 10.44000629.SZ 3.25 0.12 0.16 0.19 27.08 20.31 17.110826.HK 1.87 0.20 0.28 0.33 9.35 6.68 5.67688786.SH 35.55 0.97 1.50 1.73 36.65 23.70 20.55300811.SZ 56.75 1.27 1.59 2.07 76.08 48.22 27.42603191.SH 16.85 0.92 1.22 1.57 18.32 13.81 10.73002478.SZ 6.56 0.88 1.13 1.29 7.45 5.81 5.09300963.SZ 9.93 0.43 0.68 0.83 23.09 14.60 11.96301160.SZ 38.45 2.50 2.77 3.08 15.38 13.88 12.48600295.SH 11.89 1.04 1.20 1.30 11.43 9.91 9.15603878.SH 8.91 0.63 0.88 1.04 14.14 10.13 8.5759 60 61 62评级 说明 国泰君安证券研究所E-mail：投资建议的比较标准股票投资评级增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅15%以上上海投资评级分为股票评级和行业评级。谨慎增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于5%15%之间以报告发布后的12个月内的市场表现为比较标准，报告发布日后的12 个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深300 指数涨跌幅为基准。中性 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于-5%5%深圳 减持 相对沪深300/恒生指数下跌5%以上行业投资评级增持 明显强于沪深300/恒生指数中性 基本与沪深300/恒生指数持平北京 减持 明显低于沪深300/恒生指数地址 上海市静安区新闸路669号博华广场20 层邮编 200041电话（021）38676666地址 深圳市福田区益田路6003号荣超商务中心B 栋27层邮编 518026电话（0755）23976888地址 北京市西城区金融大街甲9 号 金融街中心南楼18层邮编 100032电话（010）83939888
展开阅读全文