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|2024 03 10/10 0.5%1992-2023 GDP 0.8%2023 1364 92.5%6.6%0.3%1 ETF 2013-2023 ETF 20.5%58.4%2023 197 9.5 181.3 15.6 2 10 0.5%2023 15.6 MRF15.1 0.5 90%3 4 2023 ETF 0.30%1.12%2023 197 69.6%83.6%26.2%10 2028 1.5%2035 1%40 0.8 7567.1 10.0 7445.1 11.0%1m 6m 12m 2.8 3.3 4.1-2.5 8.5 16.3 1-2024 2 2 2024-03-08 2 2024-03-06 3-2024 2 2 2024-02-24 S1090521010002-30-20-1001020Mar/23 Jul/23 Oct/23 Feb/24(%)银行 沪深300 2.5 1.1.5 1.2.6.8 2.1.8 2.2.9 2.2.1.9 2.2.2.10 2.2.3.12 2.2.4.13 2.2.5.14.14 3.1.15 3.1.1.15 3.1.2.16 3.1.3.17 3.2.20 3.2.1.21 3.2.2.21 3.2.3 MRF.22 3.3-.23.24.28 1 1961-2023 GDP.5 2 GDP.6 3.7 4 2022.8 XVEVxOnQnOqRrPoNrMoRqRbR8QbRnPqQnPmQjMpPoNlOqRrQ9PqQvNwMoNoONZmQqO 3 5.9 6.10 7.13 8.13 9.14 10.17 11.17 12 10Y.18 13 MMF.21 14%.21 15.22 16 MRF.22 17 MRF 7.22 18 MRF.23 19 2023 23 20.25 21 A 2010-1H23.25 22 GDP%.26 23 10Y 15-64/65.26 24.26 25 10%.27 26.27 27.27 28.28 1.6 2 2022.9 3 2023.10 4 2023 3.10 5.11 6 2023 3.11 7 2023 11.11 4 8 2023 GPIF.12 9.12 10 2023 3.14 11.15 12 ETF.18 13 ETF.18 14.19 15 1991.20 16.24 17.24 5 2023 1364 92.5%6.6%0.3%50%10 1.1 30 1955-1990 GDP 6.8%80 1979 Ezra Vogel Japan as No.1:lessons for America 1990 90 1990 GDP 1993 GDP-0.5%90 1992-2023 GDP GDP 0.8%1 1961-2023 GDP WorldBank Data 1995 GDP 5.5 GDP 72.6%GDP GDP 2023 GDP 15.4%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%196119641967197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620092012201520182021GDP 增速 6 2 GDP WorldBank Data 1.2 ABS 6 25 2023 1364 65 1998 178%1998 490 280 42 57 2023 1364 1136 64 90 43 4.7 20 1 1998 280.1 13.2 20.7 0.0 41.8 0.2 15.3 56.9 9.9 489.8 1999 320.5 14.6 21.9 0.0 45.7 0.8 12.6 56.7 8.3 532.1 2000 359.1 16.1 25.2 0.0 50.0 0.9 11.6 49.7 8.3 570.1 2001 418.2 17.8 28.2 0.5 52.4 0.9 10.3 44.6 8.0 627.8 2002 481.8 19.5 30.8 2.9 53.1 1.1 8.3 37.2 6.9 685.6 2003 531.9 22.3 34.7 5.3 53.2 1.2 5.8 31.0 6.1 732.8 2004 599.9 26.0 38.6 8.4 52.6 1.0 3.7 27.6 6.6 804.7 2005 659.2 29.9 40.7 12.2 52.0 1.0 1.8 25.8 6.9 868.4 2006 672.6 33.6 38.3 16.1 51.6 1.0 1.7 23.4 6.4 880.4 2007 675.5 36.7 37.0 19.0 54.4 0.8 1.4 22.2 7.6 884.9 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%0.050000.0100000.0150000.0200000.0250000.0300000.01960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023日本 美国 比值（右轴）7 2008 678.5 39.7 36.7 21.5 54.8 0.9 1.3 21.3 9.1 863.6 2009 701.0 43.7 36.6 24.0 59.4 0.8 1.2 19.4 8.9 894.9 2010 749.6 47.8 36.5 26.5 61.8 0.7 1.2 17.2 9.3 950.6 2011 773.4 51.0 35.1 29.2 61.7 0.8 1.0 15.2 9.8 977.4 2012 804.4 54.4 35.7 31.0 60.7 0.9 0.9 14.0 9.3 1011.2 2013 843.0 56.9 36.6 32.5 60.4 0.8 0.3 12.5 8.8 1051.8 2014 865.1 58.1 36.6 33.1 59.3 0.8 0.2 11.8 9.2 1074.4 2015 894.5 58.9 35.2 33.6 57.4 0.7 0.3 11.4 9.1 1101.1 2016 920.4 59.5 33.6 34.5 59.2 0.6 0.3 10.5 7.8 1126.5 2017 944.1 60.5 32.7 35.5 60.6 0.5 0.3 9.3 7.2 1150.8 2018 962.9 61.5 30.9 37.3 61.9 0.4 0.3 8.2 8.4 1171.9 2019 976.9 61.7 28.7 39.4 69.2 0.2 0.3 7.3 8.5 1192.2 2020 1031.3 62.5 26.3 42.7 75.6 0.2 0.1 6.1 7.3 1252.1 2021 1079.5 64.2 23.8 43.8 82.1 0.1 0.1 5.5 7.0 1306.0 2022 1106.1 64.4 20.5 43.6 85.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 7.4 1332.7 2023 1136.1 64.2 18.4 42.9 90.4 0.1 0.0 4.7 7.0 1363.8 SAMURAI BOND 2023 1200 61 1261 92.5%1998 1998 64.1%92.5%1998 176 2023 102 1998 42 2023 90 50-60 4.3 3 2023 1364 0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.01600.019981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023政府债券及准政府债券 债券总规模 8 92.5%6.6%0.3%2023 29.7 40.5 70.2 45%1998 2023 16%2017-2023 17.6%16.3%10-15 10%2035 200 70%/GDP 2.1 2022 52.0%19.0%13.0%7.0%6.5%4 2022 2023 2022 10 75.2%5.8%10 20 日本央行,52.0%银行等,13.0%险资,19.1%年金,4.2%年金基金,2.8%海外,6.5%个人,1.2%其他,1.2%9 2 2022 65.3 5.8%2-5 214.2 19.0%10 346.6 30.7%15 0.4 0.0%20 296.9 26.3%30 164.4 14.6%40 40.2 3.6%1,127.9 100.0%2.2 2.2.1 1997 2013 QQE 2023 592.3 49.3%2013-2020 2021 5 iFinD 2013 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0政府债券 持有占比（右轴）10 6 iFinD 2023 750 2023 GDP 591.5 GDP ETF 2023 37.2 ETF 3 2023 0.4 0.1%592.3 79.0%6.0 0.8%0.2 0.0%ETF 37.2 5.0%J-REITs 0.7 0.1%99.9 13.3%750.0 100.0%2.2.2 2023 3 134.6 62.4 31.7%253.7 76.1 4 2023 3 134.6 253.7 62.4 76.1 2008-2023 2013 0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0政府债券 资产总额 11 2013 QQE 2013 2013 44.5%2022 26.8%5 2008 55.6 97.9 190.7 29.1%2009 67.9 99.2 193.5 35.1%2010 82.7 90.9 200.1 41.3%2011 88.0 86.3 202.9 43.4%2012 96.0 91.0 215.2 44.6%2013 102.7 97.3 230.6 44.5%2014 96.0 109.2 253.7 37.8%2015 99.1 117.2 280.9 35.3%2016 96.5 121.7 292.6 33.0%2017 84.6 117.0 297.2 28.5%2018 78.8 116.3 300.6 26.2%2019 85.5 116.2 305.2 28.0%2020 91.3 117.4 331.8 27.5%2021 101.7 114.4 353.8 28.7%2022 98.5 111.7 367.7 26.8%2023 108.4 118.7 381.7 28.4%24Q3 108.2 114.2 397.1 27.3%iFinD 2023 3 65.1 29.8 21.7 42%6 2023 3 21.52 65.12 4.27 29.75 23.52 31.1 0.41 21.71 8.98 2023 11 400 166.3 41.6%98 24.5%7 2023 11 10.2 2.6%325.6 81.4%166.3 41.6%6.0 1.5%12 25.7 6.4%12.1 3.0%98.0 24.5%385.7 96.4%400.0 100.0%2.2.3(GPIF Government pension investment fund)2023 224.7 10.8 2019 25%58 2023 50.4%49.6%2023 49.8%2023 GPIF 2001 118.99 4.34%8 2023 GPIF 58.35 25.8%55.33 24.4%55.83 24.7%56.92 25.1%226.4 100.0%GPIF 20 2023 6.6 0.5%9.8 9 2014 11.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 13.7 27.2 2015 8.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 12.0 22.2 2016 2.6 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.5 10.8 15.4 2017 2.6 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.3 10.0 14.4 2018 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 8.2 12.9 2019 3.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.5 8.3 13.9 2020 3.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 8.2 14.0 2021 3.8 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.6 8.3 14.9 2022 4.0 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.7 7.9 14.6 2023 3.9 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.8 9.8 16.4 13 2.2.4 3 5 10 3 5 10 0.05%20%15%5%2022 12.7 1.1%2002 2010 7 2023 2004-2006 2008 2017-2020 0.05%8 2023 9 2121 23Q1 114 39.4%28.6%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%0510152025303540200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022持有金额 占比（右轴）0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%0.90%1.00%-1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.002002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023发行额 平均发行利率(右轴)14 10 2023 3 4.8%52.5%1.3%12.9%25.4%3.0%2121 11.9%12.6%4.9%39.4%28.6%2.7%114.3 10.1%35.5%2.2%21.0%29.1%2.1%28.6 2023 9 2.2.5 2022 179 14.9%2011 9 2023/GDP 70 1992-2002 0.5 MRF 2023 181 9 RMB ETF ETF 80%1989 1998 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%0204060801001201401601802002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022持有金额 持有占比（右轴）15 3.1 3.1.1 investment trust 1937()1940 6 1941 1945 8 1948 4 1949 1951 1952 1961 1 11 20 50 1951 1951 1952 20 60 1960 1961 1961 1967 20 70 80 1984 1980 1972 1970 20 90 1990 MMF 1992 1992 1993 300 1995 1997 1995 1999 1998 1998 1998 21 2000 2000 2000 J-REITs 2001 ETF 2001 16 3.1.2 1952 1961 1971 1 1972-1989 1971 1 1989 45.6 1971 0.74 1989 13.1 1990-1997 10 1989 45.6 1997 10.0 1990 10.9 1997 30.7 1997-1996 11 Big Bang 1999 35.7 1997 1997 10.0 2023 181.4 ETF 2001 2023 74.9 41.3%2023 196.9 9.5 181.3 15.6 70 1992-2002 2023 0.5 MRF Money Reserve Fund 181 ETF ETF 80%1989 1998 1998 17 10 3.1.3 2008 2008-2012 11 1985-1989 2008 10 11 2023 8.9%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00200.001960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023固收类基金 其中：债基 股票基金 其中：ETF0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.01960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023股票 债券 18 12 10Y iFinD ETF ETF ETF 2001 2013 65.0 ETF 8.1 12.4%2023 181.4 ETF 74.9 41.3%12 ETF ETF ETF 2013 65.03 8.09 12.4%2014 77.10 10.62 13.8%2015 81.74 16.16 19.8%2016 83.02 20.35 24.5%2017 97.43 30.79 31.6%2018 93.55 33.56 35.9%2019 109.91 43.35 39.4%2020 125.16 54.81 43.8%2021 150.03 62.43 41.6%2022 142.75 59.17 41.5%2023 181.35 74.94 41.3%2010 10 ETF ETF 2021 ETF 2023 3 ETF 37 53 ETF 80%2023 3 ETF 7.3%13 ETF ETF ETF 2013 8.09 2.5 30.9%2014 10.62 3.8 36.2%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%1960196319661969197219751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014201720202023债券投资比例 10年期国债收益率(右轴)19 ETF ETF 2015 16.16 6.9 42.7%2016 20.35 11.1 54.8%2017 30.79 17.2 56.0%2018 33.56 23.5 70.2%2019 43.35 28.3 65.2%2020 54.81 35.3 64.4%2021 62.43 36.3 58.2%2022 59.17 37.0 62.5%2023 74.94 37.2 49.6%ETF 2023 83.4 9.6%20.2%8.6%6.9%6.6%6.6%2011-2023 14 2011 2023 2011 2023 114 730 0.2%0.1%345 2439 0.5%0.3%1848 17354 2.6%2.1%2305 27883 3.3%3.3%627 2772 0.9%0.3%329 1188 0.5%0.1%4807 54634 6.8%6.6%3598 41229 5.1%4.9%597 3280 0.8%0.4%661 6172 0.9%0.7%1244 6481 1.8%0.8%1133 6000 1.6%0.7%1052 5949 1.5%0.7%580 3326 0.8%0.4%3963 45760 5.6%5.5%11730 168781 16.6%20.2%6166 57376 8.7%6.9%1539 23229 2.2%2.8%976 19306 1.4%2.3%998 8071 1.4%1.0%1970 18022 2.8%2.2%280 6196 0.4%0.7%139 3098 0.2%0.4%225 1427 0.3%0.2%5527 71749 7.8%8.6%3603 47907 5.1%5.7%4429 55380 6.3%6.6%4292 41901 6.1%5.0%357 5099 0.5%0.6%1050 16746 1.5%2.0%899 9276 1.3%1.1%1389 14309 2.0%1.7%2016 40996 2.8%4.9%70788 834068 100.0%100.0%20 34813 355930 105601 1189998 3.2 MMF Money Management Fund MRF Money Reserve Fund MRF 2023 15.6 MRF 15.1 0.5 15 1991 MRF 1991 3.39 3.08 0.72 12.91 1992 5.41 4.57 3.09 3.05 22.20 1993 11.08 5.21 3.34 5.63 31.19 1994 9.17 4.94 2.71 4.99 25.96 1995 12.00 6.69 2.83 8.81 33.28 1996 14.22 7.53 2.76 8.58 35.89 1997 11.56 0.03 6.60 2.21 7.54 30.66 1998 14.28 0.36 6.06 2.33 5.95 31.24 1999 16.79 1.53 7.52 3.51 4.88 35.66 2000 10.97 1.63 9.93 7.78 2.86 34.79 2001 7.72 2.52 10.51 5.49 1.86 30.38 2002 5.52 3.00 6.86 2.48 0.38 19.64 2003 4.35 4.22 4.65 1.51 0.15 16.10 2004 3.61 4.97 3.23 0.61 0.11 13.56 2005 3.02 7.35 2.55 0.47 0.08 14.52 2006 2.69 6.97 2.04 0.38 0.05 13.27 2007 2.92 6.65 1.80 0.35 0.03 12.98 2008 2.61 5.73 1.62 0.31 0.02 11.30 2009 2.46 5.75 1.50 0.29 0.01 11.21 2010 2.23 6.01 1.40 0.27 0.01 11.26 2011 2.03 5.59 1.30 0.25 0.01 10.57 2012 1.85 6.41 1.21 0.25 0.01 11.15 2013 1.93 11.18 1.14 0.26 0.00 16.50 2014 1.98 11.12 1.07 0.26 0.00 16.41 2015 1.64 11.19 0.98 0.19 0.00 16.02 2016 0.07 12.70 0.84 0.00 0.00 13.62 2017 0.00 12.99 0.76 0.00 0.00 13.76 2018 0.00 10.91 0.70 0.00 0.00 11.61 2019 0.00 12.62 0.64 0.00 0.00 13.26 2020 0.00 13.66 0.60 0.00 0.00 14.27 2021 0.00 13.91 0.56 0.00 0.00 14.47 2022 0.00 13.93 0.52 0.00 0.00 14.45 2023 0.00 15.07 0.49 0.00 0.00 15.56 21 10 0.5%10-50BP MRF 0 20 2023 6.6 0.5%9.8 MMF 2017 3.2.1 MMF 1992 2017 1999 16.8 2013 QQE 2%2016 4 2016 13 MMF 14%iFinD 2017-MMF 0.008%3.2.2 2013 QQE 1980 2000-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.00货币基金（MMF）-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.400.500.601998-011999-102001-072003-042005-012006-102008-072010-042012-012013-102015-072017-042019-012020-102022-07日本隔夜拆借利率 22 2016 2013 15 2001 2023 0.49 3.2.3 MRF MRF Money Reserve Fund MRF MRF MRF MRF MRF MRF MRF 2023 15.6 MRF 15.1 0.5 MRF 2023 6.53 90 2023 0.006%0 16 MRF 17 MRF 7 MRF MRF MRF0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022长债基金 中期国债基金 内外债基0.005.0010.0015.0020.00MRF 23 2011 2017 18 MRF 3.3-2023 80 326 15.6 197 2023 197 137.0 69.6%164.6 83.6%51.7 26.2%19 2023 1959 2023 10 1524 2023 80.4 ETF 43%26.2%2022 4 1-2023 3 31-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.01997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023债券 回购等野村,51.7 大和,25.1 日興,24.5 三菱,22.8,12.8 其他,59.9 24 1320 261 ETF 2013-2023 ETF 9.2%29.2%ETF 2023 41.6%20.5%58.4%ETF 60%16 ETF 2013 51.7 5.24 8.09 65.03 20.5%2014 59.7 6.78 10.62 77.10 22.6%2015 57.8 7.78 16.16 81.74 29.3%2016 54.5 8.17 20.35 83.02 34.4%2017 57.9 8.74 30.79 97.43 40.6%2018 50.7 9.29 33.56 93.55 45.8%2019 55.3 11.26 43.35 109.91 49.7%2020 57.4 12.95 54.81 125.16 54.1%2021 68.9 18.70 62.43 150.03 54.1%2022 61.8 21.78 59.17 142.75 56.7%2023 75.4 31.01 74.94 181.35 58.4%ETF 2023 61.4%1%2023 ETF 0.30%1.12%17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1.09%1.08%1.06%1.04%1.02%1.00%0.97%0.46%0.45%0.44%0.43%0.40%0.38%0.37%1.18%1.18%1.16%1.15%1.15%1.14%1.12%ETF 0.36%0.36%0.35%0.33%0.33%0.30%0.30%TFP 2010 2024 2 10 2.4%MLF 2.5%10 2.5%25 20 iFinD 2010 2022 A 2022 12 30.0%2.4 27.5%0.7 57.5%21 A 2010-1H23 iFinD TFP 2010 15-64 GDP 2011 0.44 2022-0.25 GDP 9.6 3.0 2013 2012 8%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%6.00%6.50%10Y 国债 10Y 国开债 线性(10Y 国债)0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H23房地产贷款 基建相关 制造业 房贷以外个贷 其他贷款 26 22 GDP%iFinD 10/23 10Y 15-64/65 World Bank database iFinD 1995 2010 2010 2019 24 iFinD 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0人口数:15-64 岁:同比 GDP:同比（右轴）-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.0010年期国债收益率（%）15-64岁人口/65 岁以上7,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,40011,60011,80012,00012,20012,40012,60012,80013,0001985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021万人年份总人口 劳动人口 27 30 1990 10 1990-2003 10 7.8%0.5%10 2008 10 2.0%2020-0.1%10 25 10%iFinD 2015 1600 2023 902 total fertility rate 850 26 27 iFinD UN World Population Prospects(2022)2013 2021 2040 13.5 15-64 2023 1.2 8.5-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.001989-041990-081991-121993-041994-081995-121997-041998-081999-122001-042002-082003-122005-042006-082007-122009-042010-082011-122013-042014-082015-122017-042018-082019-122021-042022-08日本:10 年期国债0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.0005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5001949195319571961196519691973197719811985198919931997200120052009201320172021人口出生率（，右轴）全年出生人口数0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00195019531956195919621965196819711974197719801983198619891992199519982001200420072010201320162019中国 日本 美国 世界 28 28 iFinD 1990-2003 10 2028 1.5%2035 1%7.007.508.008.509.009.5010.0010.5010.5011.0011.5012.0012.5013.0013.5014.0014.50总人口数 人口数:15-64岁(右轴)29 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
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