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2024 3 9 HBM：AI 的内 存瓶 颈，高 壁垒高 增速 SAC S1440520070002 SAC S1440522050001 SAC S1440520060001 2 HBM HBM 2024 HBM3e 24GB/36GB/HBM TSV HBM HBM DRAM I/O HBM TSV DRAM I/O I/O HBM HBM HBM HBM3e 16 64GB 1.2TB/s HBM 2 9.6 4 Trendforce HBM Roadmap 2024 24GB HBM3e 8 2024 36GB HBM3e 12 HBM4 2026 HBM TSV EMC HBM TSV DRAM TSV DRAM HBM TSV+Micro bumping+TCB TC-NCF SK MR-MUF TCB 16 HBM HBM HBM HBM4 TSV GMC/LMC YWDWxOqNpMqRpRtQmRoRmNbR8QaQmOmMmOmQiNqQmPlOpOoP7NpPuMNZtQqMMYtPpR3 AI HBM AI AI ODM 2024 2024 AI AI GPGPU NVIDIA A100/H100 80GB 8 HBM 640GB H200 B100 HBM HBM GB HBM 2023 HBM 40 2024 148 2026 242 20232026 CAGR 82%HBM/HBM HBM 0 1 HBM HBM HBM AI 目录CONTENTS HBM SK HBM TSV EMC CAGR 80%5CPU HBM CPU CPU(CPU)CPU CPU CPU CPU CPU Cache CPU CPU Cache CPU CPU SRAM SSD HDD HBM CPU HBM 6 2 1 2 7 riselab 8 riselab Transformer 240 GPU 2 2 GPU 9HBM TSV 2D NAND 3D NAND DRAM 2D 3D HBM High BandwidthMemory 1 3D TSV HBM DRAM die 3D TSV 2 I/OHBM DRAM Die I/O 64/128bit HBM 1024bit HBM HBM HBM CoWoS GPU/FPGA/ASIC SK Hynix AMD HBM HBM CoWoS 10HBM GDDR=I/O Gb/s*/8 DDR I/O I/O*I/O GDDR HBM GDDR I/O GDDR I/O GDDR5 GDDR6 I/O 7 Gb/s 16Gb/s HBM3 6.4 Gb/s GDDR DDR GDDR PCB HBM TSV I/O HBM TSV I/O GDDR 最 新标准 GDDR6 HBM2e HBM3最高I/O 速率(Gb/s)16 3.6 6.4每颗DRAM 通道数 2 8 16单通道位宽（bit）16 128 64最高位宽（bit）32 1024 1024最高带宽（GB/s）64 460 819 HBM GDDR HBM Sk Hynix Rambus 11HBM GDDR HBM I/O TSV DRAM I/O HBM DDR GDDR HBM DRAM 1GB GDDR5 4 256M 1GB HBM1 94%AMD 4GB HBM1 GPU R9 Fury X 4GB GDDR5 R9 290X HBM 4900 mm2 GDDR5 9900 mm2 10.960.580.450.3300.20.40.60.811.2DDR3 x16 DDR4 x16 GDDR5 x32 HBM1 HBM2mW/Gbps/Pin Sk hynix AMD HBM GDDR DDR HBM 12HBM I/O DRAM HBM GPU DRAM HBM HBM HBM3e 16 64GB 1.2TB/s HBM 2 9.6 4 GB DRAM DRAM GB/s HBM1 HBM3e I/O I/O 1024bit I/O DigiTimes Seoul Economy HBM4 2048bit I/O 代际制程（nm）最大I/O速率(Gb/s)通道数单通道位宽（bit）总位宽（bit）最大带宽(GB/s)可堆叠高度DRAM 颗粒最大容量（Gb）HBM 最大容量（GB）SkHynix Samsung MicronHBM 20nm 1 8 128 1024 128 8 16 16 HBM2 20nm 2 8 128 1024 256 8 16 16 HBM2e1y/1z 16Gb3.6 8 128 1024 461 12 24 36 HBM3 1z 16Gb 6.4 16 64 1024 819 16 32 64 HBM3e1/1 24Gb9.6 16 64 1024 1229 16 32 64 Rambus HBM 13 Trendforce 2024 HBM3e 24GB 36GB 2023 ChatGPT AI HBM Trendforce HBMRoadmap 2024 24GB HBM3e 1 alpha/beta24Gb 8 2024 36GB HBM3e 12 HBM Roadmap 14 HBM4 HBM3e die HBM4 1 HBM4 8/12 16 Hybrid bonding HBM4 12 2026 16 2027 2 die GPU/HBM Trendforce HBM Logic die Base die 12nm HBM 3 SK CPU GPU HBM4 3D AMD HBM4 2048 HBM4 15 Trendforce HBM SK HBM SK TrendForce 2022 HBM SK 53%38%9%HBM 2023 HBM HBM2 HBM2e HBM3 HBM 2023 NVIDIA H100 AMD MI300 HBM3 2024 SK HBM3e HBM3e HBM3 HBM3e HBM 2022 HBM 53%38%9%SK 16 DRAM HBM HBM DRAM HBM 2023 8 HBM CUBEx 14 TSV DRAM I/O 500M2Gbps 1024GB/s 0.54GB 1pJ/bit HBM CUBEx AR VR DRAM HBM DRAM 1alpha 1beta DRAM 2517nm DRAM 2519nm DRAM GPU DRAM HBM HBM CUBEx 目录CONTENTS HBM SK HBM TSV EMC CAGR 80%18 SK SK HBM SK HBM SK HBM DRAM TSV DRAM MR-MUF EMC SK HBM 19 TSV DRAM DRAM HBM DRAM TSV DRAM TSV HBM IDM TSV ECD CMP AMAT TEL Lam Research HBM TSV TSV Cost Analysis of TSV Process and Scaling Options B/S Barrier and seed 20 TechSugar TSV DRAM TSV 2.5D/3D 1 2 TSV SOC 3 TSV(MEMS)4 TSV TSV 21 SK MR-MUF SK HBM MR-MUF HBM TSV DRAM HBM TC-NCF SK MR-MUF HBM2e TC-NCF MR-MUF HBM3e MR-MUF HBM4 Hybrid bonding TSV DRAM SK 22 SK MR-MUF MR-MUF Mass reflow molded underfill FC TSV 1 DRAM 2 3 EMC TC-NCF 1 MR-MUF 2 24 MR-MUF TC-NCF 23 SK EMC MR-MUF 1 Chip warpage control 2 Gapfill-MUF material Camtek ONTO EMC DDR Flash EMC HBM Die Die 20 HBM2e 15 HBM3e 13 HBM GMC Granular Molding Compound LMC Liquid MoldingCompound GMC Namics MR-MUF EMC EMC 24 Hybrid Bonding copper pad HBM CIS 3D NAND 1 2 10 1 3 4 25 SK Hybrid Bonding DRAM wire bonding Flip Chip I/O 4/8/16 200 50-2000 8 TSV Hybrid I/O 1024 3.510k 520 16 Hybrid TSV DRAM SK HBM4 Hybrid bonding Besi EV Group Besi Die to Wafer bonding EV Group Waferto Wafer bonding DRAM 目录CONTENTS HBM SK HBM TSV EMC CAGR 80%27 Trendforce AI HBM AI HBM eSSD Trendforce DRAM RDIMM LRDIMM 500600GB AI 64128GB 1636 1TB SSD AI DRAM HBM SSD HBM AI DRAM SSD HBM AI GPGPU NVIDIA A100/H100 80GB 8 HBM640GB H200 B100 MI300 HBM AI 2022 2023/DRAM GB 538 603 RDIMM 12 1800 1636 24004800yoy 18%12%NAND GB 3351 4167 eSSD 4 1500 812 30004500yoy 24%24%HBM 0 0 0 0 0 8 10000Raid Riad 1 100 1 100 AI 28 AI 2024 2%Trendforce 2024 CSP 2024 1365.4 2.05%CSP AI ODM 2024 1 2024 AI Microsoft AWS 2 Supermicro 2024 AI CoreWeave Tesla Apple Meta AI 3 Inventec CSP ByteDance 2024 AI 1015%4 Foxconn Oracle AWS 2024 ODM 57%AI-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%020040060080010001200140016002023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy0204060801001201402023 2024E 2025E 2026EAI 数据来源：Trendforce，中 信 建投 数据来源：Trendforce，Gartner，中 信 建投测 算 292024 HBM 9 GB HBM GB 024681012142023 2024E 2025E 2026EHBM GB 数据来源：Trendforce，Gartner，中 信 建投测 算 HBM 1 2023 HBM 2.8 GB 2024 8.9 GB 2026 14.1 GB 20232026 CAGR 71%HBM AI PC+NB DRAM HBM DRAM 2023 1%2023 DRAM 275 GB 2026 3%30数据来源：Trendforce，Gartner，中 信 建投测 算2024 HBM 267%148 HBM 0501001502002503002023 2024E 2025E 2026EHBM 数据来源：Gartner 2023Q2，中 信 建投 测算 2 2023 HBM 40 2024 148 2026 242 20232026 CAGR 82%HBM GB HBM DRAM HBM ASP HBM DRAM 2023 HBM DRAM 8%202617%DRAM 31数据来源：Gartner，Trendforce，中 信 建投测 算HBM 1 2025 2023-2024 2025 2 HBM 2023 HBM HBM2 HBM2e HBM3 2024 HBM3e HBM4 20252026 HBM3e 3 HBM HBM3eHBM3HBM2eHBM2 HBM3e 24GB 36GB 24GB 4 DRAM Gartner 20242025 2026 HBM 20252026 HBM HBM 32数据来源：Gartner，Trendforce，中 信 建投测 算HBM 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E HBM HBM2/2e 8H 60%10%0%0%HBM3 12H 40%50%20%0%HBM3e 12H 0%40%80%100%/1GB HBM2/2e 8H 13 12 11 11 HBM3 12H 16 14 14 13 HBM3e 12H 22 20 19 18 HBM 2.7 8.3 10.9 12.7 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 HBM GB 2.8 8.9 11.7 14.1 yoy 214%32%20%HBM 381427 1415081 1967950 2272143 20800 60840 88920 143606 HBM 40.2 147.6 205.7 241.6yoy 267%39%17%DRAM 438 869 1178 1187 yoy-44%98%36%1%DRAM+HBM 478 1017 1384 1429 yoy-113%36%3%HBM 8%15%15%17%DRAM GB 275 325 415 495yoy 12%18%27%19%DRAM+HBM GB 278 334 426 509 yoy 20%28%19%HBM 1%3%3%3%目录CONTENTS HBM SK HBM TSV EMC CAGR 80%34 HBM HBM/HBM HBM 0 1 HBM HBM HBM HBM Wind 2024 3 7 2023E 2024E 2025E 23E 24E 25E 002371.SZ 1,545 38.1 52.9 69.3 40 29 22 688012.SH 903 17.9 19.8 25.2 51 46 36 688072.SH 382 6.6 8.3 11.3 57 46 34 688037.SH 159 2.5 4.1 5.7 63 39 28 688120.SH 310 7.3 10.1 13.2 43 31 24 603283.SH 149 6.3 7.6 8.7 24 20 17 688627.SH 56 1.2 1.6 2.2 48 35 25 688383.SH 69 0.6 2.6 3.4 114 26 20 002409.SZ 249 6.7 9.9 13.6 37 25 18 688300.SH 85 1.7 2.5 3.2 49 33 27 688535.SH 69 0.3 0.6 0.7 208 121 96 300429.SZ 52 0.2 1.5 2.0 260 35 26 688603.SH 30 0.6 0.9 1.4 51 32 22 300398.SZ 70 3.5 4.9 6.1 20 14 11 688733.SH 42 0.2 1.2 1.8 172 34 23 002436.SZ 227 2.6 4.3 6.6 87 53 34 002156.SZ 359 1.9 9.0 12.6 187 40 29 600584.SH 493 15.4 27.3 35.0 32 18 14 000021.SZ 226 7.6 9.3 11.2 30 24 20 300475.SZ 172 3.4 4.4 5.3 50 39 32PE 35 AMD Chiplet AMD AMD&Chiplet 2016 AMD 85%AMD+AMD AMD 80%2022 200 6.51%AMD FPGA CPU+GPU+FPGA+AI IP Chiplet 2.5D/3D NAND Flash LPDDR AI AMD 020406080100120050100150200250(%)%0%20%40%60%80%050001000015000200002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E yoy&%36 2023 40:1 60:1)ICP CCP。LPCVD ALD CVD ALD 3D NAND ALD CCP ICP 37 3D PECVD ALD SACVD HDPCVD 1 Wafer to Wafer Bonding 12 2 Die to Wafer Bonding Dinone 300(Hybrid Bonding)(Fusion Bonding)Pollux 38 1 3 2 3 28nm 2023 TSV 3D 39 Optima 2011 2019 Optima 2022 2.91 10%Sumco Sksiltron Samsung 2019-2022 81%84%9%10%9%6%100%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 40 Optima Optima Optima RXW-1200 BMW1200/RXM-1200 AXM-1200 Optima RXW-1200/PW/SOI/CMP/BMW-1200/CMP/RXM-1200/PW/Epi SOI AXM-1200AXM Notch/Notch 41 DRAM FT UniTest DRAM DRAM MEMS DRAM DRAM FT 79%69%66%50%0%19%9%27%0%4%16%11%4%1%3%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 AOI 2019-2022%42 DRAM FT SOC IPO 1.62 MEMS 2023 2900 10.03%SC9800 DDR4 DDR5 LPDDR4 LPDDR5 9Gbps 2023 10 MEMS DRAM DRAM DRAM;()DRAM FT 43 Lam Research High-K HBM 2022 10%80%HBM SK HBM High-K High-K/2022 27%30%CVD ALD 2019-202227%33%22%27%0%15%32%30%5%5%10%9%22%16%10%12%29%13%12%10%0%0%6%5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 LNG LDS 44 GMC Low-Low-GMC 2022 3.54 54%HBM GMC TOPCUT 20um Low-GMC HBM Low-公司所处行业与其上下游行业关系 2019-2022%29%36%48%54%0%0%0%35%46%38%29%0%17%15%12%0%8%11%11%11%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 45 LMC GMC DIP TO SOT SOP QFN/BGA SiP FC FOWLP/FOPLP 2014 2021 0.78 3.47 CAGR=23%2022 2023 2024+2019-202290%92%95%95%10%8%5%5%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 46 LMC GMC LMC GMC FC FOWLP GMC LMC GMC 华海诚科核心技术，及环氧塑封料应用场景 GMC GMC LMC LMC LMC 目录CONTENTS HBM SK HBM TSV EMC CAGR 80%48 AI AI AI AI AI AI HBM 49 S1440520070002&TMT 3 5 2018 2018 IAMAC 2018 SAC S1440520060001 2015 8 2020 5 SAC S1440522050001 2020 2022 6 6 A 300 500 15 5%15-5%5 5%15 15 10%-10-10%10%50 i,ii/12/2 B 12(8610)8513-0588 528 2103(8621)6882-1612 35 86755 8252-1369 2 18 852 3465-5600 charleneliucsci.hk
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