资源描述
|2024 03 05/TLAC 5 TLAC 0.7 A TLAC 5 TLAC 0.7 2028 TLAC 2030 TLAC 1998-2023 90%TLAC TLAC 2023 2.62 2.31 88%2023 2941 660 0.9 2024 10 2028 1.5%2035 1%2040 0.5%23Q2 A 010353 2 2024 3 4 A 7.90%4.19%30/2352 2023 12.4%40 0.8 7483.1 9.8 7363.2 10.9%1m 6m 12m 3.3 2.1 1.9-8.0 10.1 16.1 1-2024 2 2 2024-02-24 2 1 1 2024-02-12 3 2023 2024-02-08 S1090521010002-30-20-10010Mar/23 Jun/23 Oct/23 Feb/24(%)银行 沪深300 2.4 1.1.4 1.2.10.12 2.1.12 2.2.16.17 3.1.18 3.2?.19.20 4.1 A.20 4.2.22 4.3.23.24 1.7 2 TLAC.7 3 TLAC 3 3 8 4.9 5.10 6.11 7.11 8.11 9.12 10.12 11 A 2010-1H23.13 12 GDP%.14 13 10Y 15-64/65.14 YWBYuNtOoNoPtNsRmRqPrQ6MaO8OpNmMoMtPeRnNoNfQmMrO6MrRxPxNnRvMNZpOtN 3 14.14 15 10%.15 16.15 17.15 18.16 19%.16 20 AAA%.17 21%.19 22.22 1 23Q3.4 2 2023 11 G-SIBs.5 3 2024 TLAC.6 4.6 5 TLAC.8 6.9 7 2023 D-SIBs.20 8 A.20 9 A.21 10 A.22 11 A 2023.22 12 A 2024 3 4.23 13 2024.3.1.23 4 TLAC 2024 5 TLAC 0.7 2028 TLAC 2030 TLAC 2024 TLAC 1.1 TLAC 2023 9 A 10%-17%1 1 23Q3 13.37%15.23%17.38%8.25%5.12%5.98%6.13%13.25%13.28%15.69%7.50%5.75%4.78%5.19%13.18%13.88%15.62%7.50%5.68%5.38%5.12%9.87%12.42%15.53%7.50%2.37%3.92%5.03%9.72%11.15%15.26%7.75%1.97%2.40%4.51%9.73%11.43%14.45%7.50%2.23%2.93%3.95%11.29%12.32%14.43%7.50%3.79%3.82%3.93%11.03%12.28%14.17%7.50%3.53%3.78%3.67%12.96%12.97%14.17%7.50%5.46%4.47%3.67%10.21%10.21%13.99%7.50%2.71%1.71%3.49%12.81%12.82%13.96%7.50%5.31%4.32%3.46%9.58%11.67%13.84%7.75%1.83%2.92%3.09%9.46%11.19%13.83%8.00%1.46%2.19%2.83%9.47%10.64%13.78%8.25%1.22%1.39%2.53%10.24%10.31%13.70%7.50%2.74%1.81%3.20%9.23%10.95%13.52%7.75%1.48%2.20%2.77%9.25%12.28%13.46%7.75%1.50%3.53%2.71%9.11%11.28%13.42%7.75%1.36%2.53%2.67%10.09%11.65%13.38%7.50%2.59%3.15%2.88%9.40%11.21%13.30%7.75%1.65%2.46%2.55%9.60%11.03%13.27%7.50%2.10%2.53%2.77%10.63%10.63%13.18%7.50%3.13%2.13%2.68%9.37%10.84%13.15%7.50%1.87%2.34%2.65%5 9.25%10.15%13.13%7.75%1.50%1.40%2.38%8.23%9.03%13.10%7.50%0.73%0.53%2.60%9.68%11.99%13.05%7.50%2.18%3.49%2.55%8.94%10.74%12.99%7.75%1.19%1.99%2.24%9.10%10.80%12.94%8.00%1.10%1.80%1.94%9.05%10.71%12.85%7.75%1.30%1.96%2.10%8.31%9.85%12.81%7.50%0.81%1.35%2.31%8.37%10.08%12.78%7.50%0.87%1.58%2.28%9.33%10.30%12.76%7.50%1.83%1.80%2.26%8.81%10.59%12.65%8.00%0.81%1.59%1.65%9.40%10.29%12.48%7.50%1.90%1.79%1.98%10.30%10.30%11.98%7.50%2.80%1.80%1.48%8.87%10.18%11.96%7.75%1.12%1.43%1.21%8.28%9.62%11.83%7.50%0.78%1.12%1.33%8.29%9.79%10.99%7.50%0.79%1.29%0.49%Wind 23H1 TLAC TLAC G-SIBs G-SIBs G-SIBs/20%2023 11 FSB 2023 G-SIBs 2022 2022 1.5%1%G-SIBs TLAC 2 2023 11 G-SIBs G-SIBs in alphabetical order within each bucket 5 3.5%(Empty)4 2.5%JP Morgan Chase 3 2.0%Bank of America Citigroup HSBC 2 1.5%Agricultural Bank of China Bank of China Barclays BNP Paribas China Construction Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Mitsubishi UFJ FG UBS 1 1.0%Bank of Communications Bank of New York Mellon Groupe BPCE Groupe Cr dit Agricole ING Mizuho FG Morgan Stanley Royal Bank of Canada Santander Soci t G n rale Standard Chartered State Street Sumitomo Mitsui FG Toronto Dominion Wells Fargo FSB 2025 G-SIBs 16%TLAC/RWA 0.5 16.5%6 TLAC“”=TLAC/RWA 16.5%+2.5%+0-2.5%0+1.5%-0-2.5%2027 2024 A TLAC 2024 1000 B TLAC 2.5%A B 2024 G-SIBs/TLAC 1.7 0.4 3 2024 TLAC 1000 农业银行 7,957 2,796 工商银行 463 建设银行 4,774 中国银行 3,211 交通银行 1,173 712 17,115 3508 RWA 0.8 TLAC RWA 2.5%TLAC 16%/3.5%TLAC 18%2022 487 911 2022 549 4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 480 821 1,216 620 960 341 395 424 582 500 0 0-1,031-242-911 821 1,216 620 960 549 TLAC 1996-2009 2020 4.73 20 1996 TLAC 7 1 Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan=/Liability reserves TLAC TLAC 7000 2024 2030 TLAC 2030 TLAC TLAC TLAC 2 TLAC TLAC 2016 2023 11 TLAC 2.72 0.49 TLAC TLAC G-SIBs TLAC TLAC 2 TLAC Bloomberg 2023 2023 11 20 TLAC 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%0.90%-6-4-202461971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019存款保险基金余额 保费费率（右轴）01000200030004000500060002016 年 2017 年 2018 年 2019 年 2020 年 2021 年 2022 年 2023 年TLAC 债发行规模 资本债发行规模 8 2024 1 26 TLAC 2022 4 TLAC TLAC TLAC 2600 2025 TLAC TLAC 5 TLAC 1,500 2024/1/27 500 2024/2/1 600 2024/2/2 iFinD TLAC 2024 TLAC TLAC TLAC TLAC TLAC 3 3+1 3 TLAC TLAC 5+5 10+5 TLAC 3 3 2024 3 4 3 2.38%3 2.53%TLAC 2.45%3 TLAC 3 3 iFinD 2023 1200 61 1261 92.5%1998 64.1%92.5%2023 6.6%0.3%1998-2023 90%2.002.503.003.504.004.50 商业银行普通债(AAA):3 年 商业银行二级资本债（AAA-）:3 年 9 6 1998 280.1 13.2 20.7 0.0 41.8 0.2 15.3 56.9 9.9 489.8 1999 320.5 14.6 21.9 0.0 45.7 0.8 12.6 56.7 8.3 532.1 2000 359.1 16.1 25.2 0.0 50.0 0.9 11.6 49.7 8.3 570.1 2001 418.2 17.8 28.2 0.5 52.4 0.9 10.3 44.6 8.0 627.8 2002 481.8 19.5 30.8 2.9 53.1 1.1 8.3 37.2 6.9 685.6 2003 531.9 22.3 34.7 5.3 53.2 1.2 5.8 31.0 6.1 732.8 2004 599.9 26.0 38.6 8.4 52.6 1.0 3.7 27.6 6.6 804.7 2005 659.2 29.9 40.7 12.2 52.0 1.0 1.8 25.8 6.9 868.4 2006 672.6 33.6 38.3 16.1 51.6 1.0 1.7 23.4 6.4 880.4 2007 675.5 36.7 37.0 19.0 54.4 0.8 1.4 22.2 7.6 884.9 2008 678.5 39.7 36.7 21.5 54.8 0.9 1.3 21.3 9.1 863.6 2009 701.0 43.7 36.6 24.0 59.4 0.8 1.2 19.4 8.9 894.9 2010 749.6 47.8 36.5 26.5 61.8 0.7 1.2 17.2 9.3 950.6 2011 773.4 51.0 35.1 29.2 61.7 0.8 1.0 15.2 9.8 977.4 2012 804.4 54.4 35.7 31.0 60.7 0.9 0.9 14.0 9.3 1011.2 2013 843.0 56.9 36.6 32.5 60.4 0.8 0.3 12.5 8.8 1051.8 2014 865.1 58.1 36.6 33.1 59.3 0.8 0.2 11.8 9.2 1074.4 2015 894.5 58.9 35.2 33.6 57.4 0.7 0.3 11.4 9.1 1101.1 2016 920.4 59.5 33.6 34.5 59.2 0.6 0.3 10.5 7.8 1126.5 2017 944.1 60.5 32.7 35.5 60.6 0.5 0.3 9.3 7.2 1150.8 2018 962.9 61.5 30.9 37.3 61.9 0.4 0.3 8.2 8.4 1171.9 2019 976.9 61.7 28.7 39.4 69.2 0.2 0.3 7.3 8.5 1192.2 2020 1031.3 62.5 26.3 42.7 75.6 0.2 0.1 6.1 7.3 1252.1 2021 1079.5 64.2 23.8 43.8 82.1 0.1 0.1 5.5 7.0 1306.0 2022 1106.1 64.4 20.5 43.6 85.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 7.4 1332.7 2023 1136.1 64.2 18.4 42.9 90.4 0.1 0.0 4.7 7.0 1363.8 SAMURAI BOND TLAC 2024 TLAC 7000 2028 TLAC 2030 TLAC TLAC TLAC 4 iFinD 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023净发行量 10 1.2 2022 2023 7.85%10.5%2023 0.1%0.2%0.25%3 2%2.2%1.95%2024 5 iFinD 2023 2.62 2.31 88%2023 12.6 22.6%45.4%2022 4.5 2019 1 7 2022 0.7 2023 0.9 2024 23Q3 853 1927 23H1 184 324 538 173 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002013-042013-102014-042014-102015-042015-102016-042016-102017-042017-102018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-10保险业:资金运用余额 保险业:资金运用余额:债券债券投资占比（右轴）11 6 2023 26.8 2024 1 140 2024 30 7 8 E e iFinD 2023 2021 2023 2941 660 2014 929 050010001500200025003000350023Q1 23H1 23Q3二级资本债 永续债-5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.000200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0002014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-072024-01个人存款 个人活期存款 12 9 Wind 10 2028 1.5%2035 1%2040 0.5%2.1 2010 2024 2 10 2.4%MLF 2.5%10 2.5%10 iFinD 050010001500200025003000350017Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123H123Q32023基金前五大持仓二级资本债规模 基金前五大持仓银行永续债规模2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%6.00%6.50%10Y 国债 10Y 国开债 线性(10Y 国债)13 2010 2022 A 2022 12 30.0%2.4 27.5%0.7 57.5%11 A 2010-1H23 iFinD TFP 2010 15-64 GDP 2011 0.44 2022-0.25 GDP 9.6 3.0 2013 2012 8%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H23房地产贷款 基建相关 制造业 房贷以外个贷 其他贷款 14 12 GDP%iFinD 10/13 10Y 15-64/65 World Bank database iFinD 1995 2010 2010 2019 14 iFinD 30 1990 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0人口数:15-64 岁:同比 GDP:同比（右轴）-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.0010 年期国债收益率（%）15-64 岁人口/65 岁以上7,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,40011,60011,80012,00012,20012,40012,60012,80013,0001985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021万人年份总人口 劳动人口 15 10 1990-2003 10 7.8%0.5%10 2008 10 2.0%2020-0.1%10 15 10%iFinD 2015 1600 2023 902 total fertility rate 850 16 17 iFinD UN World Population Prospects(2022)2013 2021-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.001989-041990-081991-121993-041994-081995-121997-041998-081999-122001-042002-082003-122005-042006-082007-122009-042010-082011-122013-042014-082015-122017-042018-082019-122021-042022-08日本:10 年期国债0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.0005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5001949195319571961196519691973197719811985198919931997200120052009201320172021人口出生率（，右轴）全年出生人口数0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00195019531956195919621965196819711974197719801983198619891992199519982001200420072010201320162019中国 日本 美国 世界 16 18 iFinD 10 2028 1.5%2035 1%2040 0.5%2.2 2018 5 AAA-2018 4.4%2024 2 2.61%19%iFinD 2023 11 32BP 37BP 7.007.508.008.509.009.5010.0010.5010.5011.0011.5012.0012.5013.0013.5014.0014.50总人口数 人口数:15-64 岁(右轴)2.002.503.003.504.004.505.002018-12-17 2019-12-17 2020-12-17 2021-12-17 2022-12-17 2023-12-17国开债:5 年 商业银行二级资本债（AAA-）:5 年商业银行永续债(AAA-):5 年 国债:5 年商业银行普通债(AAA):5 年 线性(商业银行二级资本债（AAA-）:5 年)17 20 AAA%iFinD 5 TLAC 0.7 TLAC 2024 1 140 0 5.125%1.2.0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.602018-12-17 2019-12-17 2020-12-17 2021-12-17 2022-12-17 2023-12-17金融债利差 二级资本债利差 永续债利差 18 3.1 2017 12 11 1-10 D D 8-10 D 1-5 6-7“”2023 1-7 3655 98.28%“”2236 350 90.65%“”1724 29.47 7.63%“”337 6.63 1.72%23Q2 24 1 1 2 13 3 6 4 2 5 1 7 1 73.8%95%76%67.2%11.5%191 132 0.84%10 13 2022 4368 2019 303 346 1.72%24 1 1 2 13 3 7 4 2 5 1 70%69%13%202 112 0.78%10 13 2020 60%19 1-7 7 2 1-7“8-10”1-7 3.2?2023 3.34%1.75%1.55%21%iFinD 50 100 1 1 5000-1 1000-5000 0.001.002.003.004.005.002009-032009-122010-092011-062012-032012-122013-092014-062015-032015-122016-092017-062018-032018-122019-092020-062021-032021-122022-092023-06大行 股份行 城商行 民营银行 农商行 20 D-SIBs 0.25%-1.5%2023 20 6 9 5 7 2023 D-SIBs 10 3 3 4 3 D-SIBs A 2 2024 3 4 A 7.90%4.19%30/2352 4.1 A A 8 A A A 2021-03-31 010353 21 80%5%AAA 30%AA+50%AA 20%A 0.40%/0.15%/0.55%/0.4%1000 A A 9 A 0.40%/0.15%/100 0.40%100 500 0.20%500 1000 7 1.50%7 365 1.00%365 0 2023 12.4 22 22 4.2 2021 A 40%2023 64.5%10 A 1H21 2021 1H22 2022 1H23 2023 9.4%6.3%0.2%12.4%41.3%46.3%66.6%93.0%64.5%87.4%51.9%58.7%37.4%24.2%21.4%15.5%12.2%4.2%11.0%12.1%19.9%17.8%9.1%iFinD 2021 A 2023 A 2.5 32.9%A 11 A 2023(%)(%)1 21 2.2 7.82 4.8 2 21 2.9 7.77 3.85 3 20 01 1.2 5.91 3.85 4 21 02 2.8 5.8 3.84 5 22 3.2 5.55 3.73 2.5 32.85 iFinD 2024 3 4 A 1.85%1 7.9%A 3 6 1 0246810121421Q2 21Q3 2021 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 2023合并规模 A 份额规模 23 10%1 30/2352 12 A 2024 3 4 3 6 1 3 5 A 1.85%2.47%3.15%7.90%-17.06%5.52%1.00%1.60%1.92%4.19%11.08%18.27%10.70%3.53%1.82%2.84%2.90%6.31%15.50%23.90%14.93%4.87%0.77%1.18%1.17%2.35%-4.14%1.39%93/2769 180/2693 121/2528 30/2352-iFinD 4.3 1998 2023 12 31 2.0 1.89 10681 1880 353 QDII FOF 8245 198 1046 A 010353 7.2 2012 7 2016-12-09 10 204 13 2024.3.1(%)(%)1-5 A 2023-12-29 67 6.88 1.4 7.87 44/401 1-5 C 2023-12-29 67 14.37 1.39 7.82 45/401 1-5 E 2023-12-29 67 2.3 1.36 7.66 49/401 E 2023-12-08 88 0 1.51 6.49 1553/2711 E 2023-12-08 88 0-2023-10-20 137 10.96 2.61 7.1 348/2590 2023-08-04 214 20.54 2.44 4.2 692/2484 2021-06-18 2 261 20.41 11.76 4.18 280/1755 3 2021-06-17 2 262 10.19 9.55 3.42 965/1755 A 2021-03-31 2 340 11.42 16.92 5.48 36/1710 C 2021-03-31 2 340 0.95 15.55 5.06 56/1710 A 2020-03-18 3 353 17.39 10.46 2.54 183/272 C 2020-03-18 3 353 0 8.74 2.14 226/272 A 2019-07-11 4 239 50.92 17.74 3.57 362/1012 C 2019-07-11 4 239 0 16.09 3.26 612/1012 2018-09-14 5 174 21.92 22.27 3.74 356/760 A 2016-12-28 7 69 15.74 36.24 4.4 61/412 C 2016-12-28 7 69 0 32.43 3.98 131/412 iFinD 24 25 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
展开阅读全文