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2009 1210 2024 02 28 24 90 5-6 8-10 6 10 19-23 5 1 8 8-10 6 200 U8 2 10 15 90 50%10-15 520 36%31%8-10 600 1903 30%17%U8 14%Super X 300 24 23 Q1 10%2pcts 24 24 PE 24E 15 20 A+H S0360520070001 S0360520090001 021-20572598 S0360518040001%()7 0.00()1,904.87 0.22()1,338.43 0.20%1M 6M 12M 8.4%-17.3%-33.0%3.5%-11.5%-19.4%2023-04-16 2021 2022-04-17 20211129-20211205 2021-12-05-42%-27%-13%2%23/02 23/05 23/07 23/10 23/12 24/022023-02-282024-02-27 300 2009 1210 1 20 5-6 2 8-10 6 200 U8 10 3 90 520 600 U8 Super X 4 24 24 PE 24E 20 15 A+H YWDWuNnQnOrQoQnOqNsNrQ8ObP6MsQpPmOqMjMnNtRlOpNxP9PqRsMNZsPoPxNsOrP 2009 1210 3.5.5.9 5.9 8-10.9.12.14 24.14.15.17 2009 1210 4 1 1990 CPI.5 2.6 3 90.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7 60.8 8 CPI.9 9 20-50 2023-2030.9 10.10 11.11 12.11 13 5 8-10.12 14.12 15 CPI.12 16 2023 CR5 8.13 17 2023E.13 18 2023 CR5 8.14 19 2024.15 20.15 21.15 22 CR6.15 23.16 24 PE-Band.17 25 PB-Band.17 2009 1210 5 1 2 3 24 90 CPI 90 CPI 1990-2022 GDP CPI CAGR 0.74%0.52%2 CPI 1 1 30 1990 569 2 22 541 CAGR-0.15%2 3 1990-2022 CAGR 0.02%1 1990 CPI wind 22 350ml*6 1 1994 633ml 1995-1999 350ml 2000 350ml*6 2 22 350ml*6 3 9000 2009 1210 6 1990-2021-31%-71%3%15%2 90 30%RTD 90 17 2009 1210 7 3 90 4 4 5 4 2 7 14/L-&70%80%4 7 14/L-5 2009 1210 8 5 Euromonitor 1 2020 2022 2 3 6 7 60 Euromonitor 1 2021 2022 2 Euromonitor 1 2021 2022 2 20 5-6 CPI 1 03-12 CAGR CPI CPI CPI 12 CPI 2 12-17 CAGR 0.3%CPI 3 18-22 CAGR 4.6%CPI 2009 1210 9 8 CPI 5 5 3500 20-50 2013 2023-2030 20-50 CAGR-0.7%12-23-1.5%2030 5 3500 9 20-50 2023-2030 1 0 2 CAGR 20-50 8-10 17 2009 1210 10 19-23 6 2100 1400 3 6-7 6 8 1000 8 700 1200 5%10%1 U8 2 6 50%-70%1/3 5 23-28 300-400 10 2017-2019 2020-2023 2024-2028E 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 8 6 2 19 CR6 350 10%60%23 CR6 600 17%40%800 23%6-7 50%30%5%9%9%13-14%18%wind 6 8-10 10 2009 1210 11 11 12 1 40%2 2022 1 2 6 8 8-10 6 1)8-10 6 6 U8 200 2 5 8-10 1000 6 600 850 SuperX 8-10 2)10 10 8-10 5 10 600 800 10 11 10-12 1664 2009 1210 12 13 5 8-10 1 6-8 8-10 2 23 23 8 18-19 6 3 3-5 CPI 3500-4000 4500-5000 3 CPI 3-4pcts CPI 14 15 CPI Wind 2020 2018 19 20 8-10 6 15 2009 1210 13 16 2023 CR5 8 15 15 50%50 10-15 8-10 200 80%6 8 1903 30%1998 U8 Super X 300 17 2023E 1 2 2009 1210 14 18 2023 CR5 8 24 1-2 Q1 24 24 10%24Q2 1-2%24+3.5%2.1pcts 24 24 15 40-50 10 1664 A 10 20 IPA 5 V10 10-15 200 12 10 60 160 12-15 70 10-12 90 90 1903 20 8-10 150 90 80 Super X 180 220 80%8 100 U8 1998 10 230 70 175 110 258 375 155 255 290 125 750 300 1115 805 395 2009 1210 15 19 2024 2024 24 10%1-2%22 4-5 10%30-50%9-10%10%5-6%24Q2 5000 20 21 Wind 1 2 24 23-25E CR6 CAGR 15%PE 24E 15 20 A+H 22 CR6 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 23-25CAGR 1,256 1,239 1,370 1,432 1,529 1,612 1,694 5.3%YoY-1.4%10.6%4.5%6.8%5.4%5.1%130 114 165 178 201 238 272 16.5%YoY-12.0%44.0%8.3%12.4%18.7%14.3%10.4%9.2%12.0%12.5%13.1%14.8%16.1%1.5%YoY pcts-1.1 2.8 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.3 Wind 麦芽 大米 铝罐 瓦楞纸 玻璃等直接人工制造费用其他 吨成本成本占比23E 13%4%21%8%15%4%15%19%n.a.乐观-13.0%2.0%-5.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-3.2%中性-10.0%4.0%-3.0%-2.0%0.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%-1.5%悲观-7.0%6.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%0.5%24 年单位成本变动-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.0%5.0%3.8 pct 3.5 pct 3.2 pct 2.9 pct 2.6 pct 2.3 pct 2.3 pct4.5%3.5 pct 3.2 pct 2.9 pct 2.6 pct 2.4 pct 2.1 pct 2.1 pct4.0%3.3 pct 3.0 pct 2.7 pct 2.4 pct 2.1 pct 1.8 pct 1.8 pct3.5%3.0 pct 2.7 pct 2.4 pct 2.1 pct 1.8 pct 1.5 pct 1.5 pct3.0%2.7 pct 2.4 pct 2.1 pct 1.8 pct 1.5 pct 1.2 pct 1.2 pct2.5%2.4 pct 2.1 pct 1.8 pct 1.5 pct 1.2 pct 0.9 pct 0.9 pct2.0%2.1 pct 1.8 pct 1.5 pct 1.2 pct 0.9 pct 0.6 pct 0.6 pct23E 38.5%2009 1210 16 23 Wind/12-15 10-12 100 120 10-15 12 5 8-10 24 23H1 24H1 U8 U8 23 40%54 24 U8 U8 25 23 23E 6%13-14%23 23 24 5kw P&SP 24 P&SP 2009 1210 17 24 PE-Band 25 PB-Band Wind Wind 2009 1210 18 7 2020 2021-2023 5 2019 2020 2021 5 2020 2020 2022 2022 4 2020 2023 15 2013 2023 2009 1210 19 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 20 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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