资源描述
|2021 2022 35%2023 2023 2022 2022 1(301035)(603639)(300575)(002734)(600486)(600096)(002895)(000893)2(600309)(603181)(300596)3(600938)(002493)(600346)(600426)(002001)(600989)(601233)(002648)4(002597)(300384)/2022 11 24 021-63325888*7504 S0860517120003 021-63325888*2504 S0860519090003 S0860522070002 2023 2 1 2023.7 2023.7 1.1.1 9 1.1.2 12 2023.12 2 2023.14 C1.15 C2.17 C3.19.21.23.25 2.6.1 25 2.6.2 27 2.6.3 28 3.31.31 3.1.1 31 3.1.2 32 3.1.3 32 3.1.4 32 3.1.5 32 3.1.6 32 3.1.7 33 3.1.8 33.33 3.2.1 33 3.2.2 34 3.2.3 34.34 3.3.1 34 3.3.2&34 3.3.3 35 3.3.4 35 3.3.5 35 3 3.3.6 35 3.3.7 36.36 3.4.1 36 3.4.2 36 4.36 4 1 2022 300.7 2/.8 3/.9 4 OPEC/.10 5 DUC.10 6 OECD.10 7.10 8 TTF EUR/MWh.11 9 GWH/d.11 10 GWH/d.11 11 GWH.11 12.12 13 27.13 14.13 15.14 16.14 17.14 18.14 19 17-21/.16 20 MTO/.16 21-17-21/.16 22.16 23 DMF 12-21/.16 24 22 DMF.16 25/.17 26/.17 27.17 28%.18 29%.18 30%.18 31 PVC%.18 32.19 33 POE.19 34-17-21/.19 5 35 PDH 17-21/.19 36 17-21.20 37 16-20/.20 38 16-20/.20 39 16-20/.21 40 22-24.21 41.22 42.22 43%.22 44%.22 45%.23 46%.23 47 POY/.23 48 POY.23 49 EBITDA.24 50 MDI 17-21/.24 51 MDI 17-21/.24 52 MDI/.24 53 TDI 17-21/.25 54 PO 17-21/.25 55 PO 2022-2024.25 56%.26 57 2014/7/1 100.26 58/.27 59/.27 60 A.27 61 A.27 62 2020.28 63 22.28 64 2022-2026.29 65/.29 66/.29 67/.30 68/.30 69.30 70.31 6 1%.8 2/.9 3/.11 4/2022/11/2.14 5.21 7 1 2023 21 22 2022 2022 1 2 2022 2023 2023 1 2023 2 3 2022 CPI 2023 1 2022 300 Wind 2023 3000350040004500500055002022-1 2022-2 2022-3 2022-4 2022-5 2022-6 2022-7 2022-8 2022-9 2022-10()300()8 2021 2022 22 9 2012 4%-5%37%21%14-15 18-19 10%2022 2023 2023 1%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1-9-4.7-0.9-9.8 13.0-5.1-5.8-1.4-8.5 12.0-3.8 0.3-4.0-9.2 23.9 9.5 8.5 0.9 28.0-5.6 8.7-14.6 4.6 5.4 11.6 11.4 2.9 3.4 9.7 7.5 6.7 17.2 8.5-1.2-11.4-37.2-7.8 2.6-4.9 11.2-21.1 18.9 2.1 7.8-4.4-15.1 3.9 3.2 7.0 16.1 2.4-2.8-8.2-1.8 3.8 1.8-11.9 3.2-2.8 9.9-3.8 0.7-1.5-14.9 3.2-15.3 0.0 1.2-24.3-1.6-11.8 Wind 2/Wind 60801001201401601802020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7:9 3/Wind 1.1.1 2022 2022Q3 10 OPEC+2022 11 OPEC+8 200 2020 2023 OPEC+2023 1.OPEC+12 5 IEA 130/2023 2 5 100/1200/DUC 2.OPEC 10 2022 46/264/2023 36/234/2/2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 2022E 2023E 93.85 95.31 99.04 98.48 100.63 100.02 101.72 OPEC 30.88 31.63 33.71 33.97 34.85 34.42 34.59 OPEC 62.97 63.67 65.34 64.51 65.77 65.60 67.13 91.19 97.03 99.36 98.34 99.33 99.67 102.02 2.67-1.73-0.32 0.14 1.29 0.35-0.30 EIA OPEC 0501001502002502020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7:10 4 OPEC/5 DUC OPEC Wind 6 OECD 7 Wind EIA 2022 8 1 2022 8 1 2023 3 31 5 15%LNG Q2 Q3 2023 TDI MDI-60-40-20020406080/300040005000600070008000900010000:240026002800300032003400:OECD:2503003504004505005506001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 522017-2021 5 20202021 2022周 11 3/2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 2023 需求 754 796 1034 537 391 820 695 940 486 407 824 665 民用 312 351 537 185 93 400 304 482 156 100 403 285 发电 140 135 149 119 132 149 137 143 108 133 150 134 工业 234 235 248 186 134 185 188 222 182 141 185 183 其他 68 75 100 47 32 86 66 93 40 33 86 63 生产 81 74 73 66 59 63 65 68 61 55 58 60 荷兰 56 51 49 43 37 38 42 44 38 33 34 37 其他 25 23 24 23 22 25 23 24 23 22 24 23 管道进口 555 573 542 596 448 367 488 340 381 379 358 365 俄罗斯 290 279 193 174 60 0 107 0 0 0 0 0 挪威 218 219 241 243 239 239 240 235 234 238 235 236 北非 43 64 65 69 61 61 64 56 56 56 56 56 英国 11-4 18 69 60 31 44 13 55 49 31 37 阿塞拜疆 0 19 24 28 27 28 27 28 28 28 28 28 西班牙-7-4 1 13 1 8 6 8 8 8 8 8 其他进口-26-9-21-18-12-13-16-13-13-13-13-13 LNG 需 求量 144 158 440-107-104 403 158 545 57-14 421 253 再气化能 力 112 101 184 194 195 192 191 203 198 203 207 203 缺口 32 57 256-301-299 211-33 342-141-217 214 50 Morgan Stanley 8 TTF EUR/MWh 9 GWH/d Bloomberg Refinitiv 10 GWH/d 11 GWH Refinitiv Refinitiv 050100150200250300350 TTF EUR/MWh 0100020003000400050001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2021 20201000150020002500300035004000450050001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2021 20200500001000001500002000002500003000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122022 2021 2020 12 1.1.2 20 22 6 Nutrien Corteva 22 Q2 12 Wind 2023 2023 2023 2022 0200400600800100012001400160018002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/13 13 27 CEFIC 14 2022 PB 2015 1 PB 2017-2018 2021 2015 2019 14 15 16 Wind Wind 17 18 Wind Wind 2 2023 C1 C2 C3 PVC 4/2022/11/2 22 C1 2434 2461 41%4351 3521 26%DMF 12935 7283 23%C2 7871 7142 52%8570 7780 12%4671 3852 43%EO 7689 7200 19%9565 8357 42%PVC 8120 6150 8%0123456782019 2020 2021 202201234562015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022010203040010020030040018Q1 19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 02468101202040608010018Q1 19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 15 C3 7753 7260 41%8456 7980 23%10987 6700 16%8756 7042 27%10712 10850 35%2704 2451 63%3757 3480 64%75429 75000 4%235060 205000 39%64543 54117 59%298929 275000 40%MDI 21231 20500 34%MDI 17655 14750 16%TDI 18277 22800 37%PC 19952 17923 27%PO 10480 9417 22%POY 8015 7375 35%PTA 6180 5750 43%PX 8728 8850 57%POY 17164 15850 24%14136 13700 57%43869 36000 15%C1 C1 DMF DMF 22 MTO MTO 5 70 100 23 3 100 23 5 1-9 24%23 PTA 150 16 19 17-21/20 MTO/Wind Wind 21-17-21/22 Wind Wind DMF DMF 30 10 3 20 15 DMF 23 DMF 12-21/24 22 DMF 2022-10-30 Wind-2000-100001000200030001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 2022-2000-100001000200030004000LLDPE-2.7*-12000100020003000400050006000700080001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 20220.005.0010.0015.001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 202202000400060008000100001200014000160001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 20223315151010104433 17 C2 2022 C2 C2 PVC C2 25/Wind 26/27 Wind Wind 020040060080010001200140016001800020406080100120140160Wind:():FOB Wind():CFR 0500100015002000250030003500/-2000-10000100020003000400050006000/18 28%29%30%31 PVC%mPE mPP-(EVA)-(EAA)POE-1 PB-1 UHMWPE-(EVOH)2020 512 1218 42%EVA C2 POE mPE 90 LLDPE Z-N PE mPE mPE POE-2022 N topcon N POE PID N POE DOW LG SK 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001000150020002500300035004000 0%20%40%60%80%100%05001000150020002500300035002009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023E 0%20%40%60%80%100%0500100015002000250030002009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023E 0%20%40%60%80%100%0500100015002000250030003500 19 POE 9 26 800/POE POE 32 33 POE C3-PDH 2020 2017-2019 34-17-21/35 PDH 17-21/Wind PDH PDH 9 PDH 9 PDH 01000200030004000500060001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 2022010002000300040001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 2022 20 PDH ESG 2021 PDH BDO PDH 36 17-21 Wind C3 21 C3 37 16-20/38 16-20/Wind 0.81.31.82.32.83.33.81 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 20220500010000150001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 202202000400060008000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 2022 21 39 16-20/40 22-24 Wind 5 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 4620 5233 6167 6482 8.7%13.3%17.9%5.1%347.5 347.5 429.5 489.5 8%0%24%14%244.9 244.9 312.18 327.18 0.0%27.5%4.8%289.9 439.9 600.9 652.9 16%52%37%9%4 22.8%9 3.7%2023 10 OPEC+13 14 POY 30 300/02000400060008000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005006007002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 22 PTMEG 21 21 22 2020 41 42 Wind CCFEI 43%44%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0%20%40%60%80%100%01000200030004000500060002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003504004502012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022E 23 45%46%47 POY/48 POY Wind Wind TDI MDI MDI MDI 2015 2019 MDI 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.02011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023E 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%01002003004005006002015 2017 2019 2021 2023E 050010001500200025003000 POY/-505101520253035 POY 24 49 EBITDA 50 MDI 17-21/51 MDI 17-21/Wind 52 MDI/Wind 0200400600800100021Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q30500010000150002000025000300001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 20220100002000030000400001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 202205000100001500020000 25 2024 2021 2 53 TDI 17-21/54 PO 17-21/Wind 55 PO 2022-2024 2.6.1 20Q3 20Q4 21 0100002000030000400001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 20220500010000150001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017-2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 26 16 20 21 22 21Q3 21 Q3 22 56%57 2014/7/1 100 Wind Wind 607080901001101201301401501601702015/12015/72016/12016/72017/12017/72018/12018/72019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7PPI:PPI:(CCPI):050100150200250300 27 58/59/iFind 2.6.2 60 A 61 A Wind Wind 20 20 21 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000 050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 28 1 ROIC 2/62 2020 63 22 BASF 2.6.3 IFA 2020 2019 6%2020 2021 1.6%IFA 21.2%18.9%13.3%12.2%8.8%8.8%7.1%6.1%3.3%0.3%Nufarm 29 2022 7%2023 Nutrien CF Mosaic 64 2022-2026 IFA 2 3 65/66/Wind Wind 020040060080010000500100015002000250030003500-FOB/0200400600800100012000100020003000400050006000 60%():(60%):FOB/30 67/68/Wind Wind 69 40 10 30 10 20 836 80 30 P2O5 60 P2O5 50%60 30 P2O5 60%-70%836 P2O5 20 10 P2O5 0200400600800100012001400-1000010002000300040005000-FOB 01002003004005006007008009001000-10000100020003000400050006000-FOB 0100200300400500050100150200 31 70 3 2023 3.1.1 21 22 B-C 2021 119 149 2022 2100 2022 8 18 4459 21 11%2024 2025-2029 050100150200250300350020040060080010001200(/)CFR(68-70%BPL)(/)32 B-C 2024 25 21 16 700 3.1.2-1119 22Q3 3.1.3 60%-70%22 22Q3/96%20 15500 3.1.4 12000 4 5000 10 3.1.5 22 3.1.6 33 36 17 40%35%300 250 1000 160 10 10-3.1.7 525 199 50 83 9 1450 50 10/9 10/20/2 20/2023 10/17/3.1.8 34 35#100 1.52 15.22%25 75 6 179#-6.77 17.14%8 18 179#11 300 2022 2023 2023 2024 179 200 500 800-1000 3.2.1 MDI TDI 2023 34 3.2.2 2022 MS 2023 MS 3.2.3 5G-3.3.1 A 2021 90%1087.7+105.7%2022Q3 30.29/2021 1.30%25.52/2021Q3 5.3%2022 900-1000 2022Q3 686.9 6 14 20 A 3.3.2&120/90/35 641 192 345 140/BOPET 3.3.3 ROE 30 3.3.4 VA+PPS 15 3.3.5 120/700/9 22 300 300/100/C2-C5 300 50/570/700/3.3.6 11 PB 0.88 PB 0.7 13 14 36 3.3.7 C2 C3 1.2.C1 2022 3.4.1 3 DMF 99 3.4.2 rPET EPC PA6 PA66 2022 14.2 rPET PA66 4 1)2)3)4)37 信 息披 露 1%(600426.SH)603181.SH 1%38 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%1%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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