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分析师 李珍妮 登记编号：S1220523080002海外需求彰显韧性，叠加补库订单拉动，重视自主品牌出海及供应链优势轻工团队 行业专题报告证 券 研 究 报 告|轻工制造|2024 年02 月19 日 2023 11 2023 12+4.5%+0.4%2024 1+1.4%&2023 8 30 2022 30 2023 12 6.2%378 30,23Q3 15.6%6 TikTok Temu OEM/ODM 20YAZuNtOsRoPtNpMsPoRpO8OdN9PmOnNpNsOkPnNmOfQsQnNaQmNnRvPnMvNwMoNtN 2023 11 2023 12+4.5%+0.4%2024 1+1.4%&3 wind 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-01:1966Q2=100 4 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-121.26 1.28 1.30 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.311.38 1.37 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.42 1.40 1.40 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.360.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.762.30 2.37 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.38 2.36 2.35 2.39 2.38 2.34 2.291.51 1.57 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.65 1.68 1.72 1.74 1.80 1.83 1.841.95 1.92 1.96 1.95 1.91 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.91 1.89 1.90 1.871.59 1.66 1.67 1.66 1.63 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.56 1.53 1.532023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-121.38 1.37 1.41 1.40 1.40 1.41 1.39 1.36 1.33 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.36 1.36 1.34 1.33 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.30 1.70 1.72 1.79 1.81 1.79 1.81 1.84 1.85 1.80 1.84 1.75 1.86 1.89 1.83 1.83 1.82 1.77 1.76 1.69 1.65 1.68 1.74 1.68 1.59 2.45 2.47 2.50 2.47 2.48 2.47 2.41 2.40 2.33 2.31 2.32 2.29 1.70 1.67 1.69 1.68 1.65 1.65 1.63 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.60 1.58 3.11 3.04 3.08 3.19 3.26 3.17 2.99 2.88 2.72 2.77 2.81 2.75 1.08 1.05 1.06 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.01 0.97 0.98 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.73 0.72 2023 8 wind-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 5 2023Q3+5%+13%Home Depot Wayfair 2023Q3 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3HOME DEPOT 0.52 0.37 0.44 0.51 0.48 0.46 0.54 0.60 0.61 0.59 0.67 0.71 0.67 0.57 0.61LOWES 0.70 0.51 0.66 0.79 0.71 0.65 0.74 0.80 0.80 0.72 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.74 0.85WAYFAIR 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03WILLIAMS SONOMA 0.88 0.71 0.61 0.46 0.60 0.58 0.60 0.50 0.70 0.69 0.74 0.64 0.81 0.73 0.73RH 0.97 0.69 0.58 0.64 0.66 0.63 0.64 0.76 0.81 0.85 0.97 1.05 1.06 0.94 0.97WALMART 0.32 0.30 0.34 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.37 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.38AMAZON 0.26 0.22 0.23 0.19 0.22 0.21 0.25 0.23 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.24 0.27 0.26 0.25TARGET 0.45 0.38 0.48 0.41 0.44 0.43 0.51 0.47 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.49 0.52 0.51 0.54BEST BUY 0.54 0.41 0.49 0.39 0.49 0.51 0.63 0.44 0.57 0.60 0.63 0.42 0.55 0.57 0.68TEMPUR-SEALY 0.32 0.40 0.24 0.28 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.31 0.42 0.50 0.47 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.40HNI 0.36 0.39 0.30 0.25 0.30 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.34 0.35 0.38 0.35 0.39 0.38 0.33SLEEP NUMBER 0.18 0.29 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.18 0.14 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.26 0.25 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3HOME DEPOT 7%23%23%25%33%8%10%11%4%7%6%0%-4%-2%-3%LOWES 11%30%28%27%24%1%3%5%-3%0%2%5%-6%-9%-13%WAYFAIR 20%84%67%45%49%-10%-19%-11%-14%-15%-9%-5%-7%-3%4%WILLIAMS SONOMA 0%9%22%24%42%31%16%9%8%10%7%-2%-7%-13%-15%RH-19%0%25%22%78%39%19%11%11%0%-14%-14%-23%-19%-14%WALMART 9%6%5%7%3%2%4%1%2%8%9%7%8%6%5%AMAZON 26%40%37%44%44%27%15%9%7%7%15%9%9%11%13%TARGET 11%25%21%21%23%10%13%9%4%3%3%1%1%-5%-4%BEST BUY-6%4%21%11%36%20%0%-3%-9%-13%-11%-10%-11%-7%-8%TEMPUR-SEALY 19%-8%38%21%27%76%20%29%19%4%-6%-13%-3%5%0%HNI-2%-21%-19%-9%3%22%16%7%18%22%2%-6%-16%-9%19%SLEEP NUMBER 11%-20%12%29%20%70%21%-13%-7%13%-16%1%0%-16%-13%wind 30 2000 2008 2018 30 2022 30 2023 12 6.2%378 11-7.3%30 6 30 30-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2000-012000-122001-112002-102003-092004-082005-072006-062007-052008-042009-032010-022011-012011-122012-112013-102014-092015-082016-072017-062018-052019-042020-032021-022022-012022-122023-110%20%40%60%80%100%1999-012000-012001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-01%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.001999-011999-112000-092001-072002-052003-032004-012004-112005-092006-072007-052008-032009-012009-112010-092011-072012-052013-032014-012014-112015-092016-072017-052018-032019-012019-112020-092021-072022-052023-03:30:2.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002004-01-082005-01-082006-01-082007-01-082008-01-082009-01-082010-01-082011-01-082012-01-082013-01-082014-01-082015-01-082016-01-082017-01-082018-01-082019-01-082020-01-082021-01-082022-01-082023-01-08:30 wind:7/-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2000-012000-092001-052002-012002-092003-052004-012004-092005-052006-012006-092007-052008-012008-092009-052010-012010-092011-052012-012012-092013-052014-012014-092015-052016-012016-092017-052018-012018-092019-052020-012020-092021-052022-012022-092023-05:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2014-032014-062014-092014-122015-032015-062015-092015-122016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-12:wind+8 23Q3 15.6%6 TikTok Temu 600 28 24 10-15 Tiktok 24Q1 OBM MotoLiving 5000-6000/John Deere EGO 23H1+24 21.2%PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E301376.SZ 89.4 54.6 61.4 73.9 88.0 2.5 4.0 5.0 6.0 22.2 18.0 14.9300729.SZ 53.3 32.1 39.1 48.6 59.4 2.2 6.0 4.5 5.2 24.3 8.9 11.9 10.3603661.SH 62.0 65.1 81.2 96.0 112.3 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.6 11.6 13.7 11.3 9.4301061.SZ 70.2 14.6 19.6 24.3 29.5 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.7 11.0 17.5 14.9 12.3603600.SH 35.0 40.6 37.1 43.4 50.2 3.4 3.0 3.6 4.2 8.7 11.5 9.8 8.4301004.SZ 59.8 12.6 17.5 21.3 25.1 2.7 4.3 5.2 6.0 11.3 13.8 11.5 9.92285.HK 69.3 19.9 16.1 18.7 21.6 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 19.4 9.7 6.4 5.1 wind 2023-2025 wind 2024 2 8 2023 59.9%-67.9%9 23 2023 41.4 23 60.2-61.0 10.3%-11.8%Q4 18.8-19.6 40.9%-46.9%23 2023 2.86+67.1%23 4.0-4.2 59.9%-67.9%Q4 1.14-1.34 44.2%-69.6%2023 22 2023Q1-3 36.9%6.9%+5.6pct+2.8pct 2023Q3 37.7%6.7%+7.0pct+2.1pct 2018-2023H1 2018-2023 wind 2022Q1-2023Q3 2022Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023 2022Q1-2023Q3-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%010002000300040005000600070002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy05,00010,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1家具系列 家居系列 庭院系列 宠物系列 其他业务 其他收入-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%11501200125013001350140014501500155022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 yoy62%63%64%65%66%67%68%69%70%71%02040608010012022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 2024 2 401.5 1%2024-2026 2023 25%56.25%95.31%25%100%2023 20%44%72.8%20%SONGMICS VASAGLE Feandrea 2023 78%GMV Otto ManoMano SHEIN 23H1/B2C 83.3%/2.7%/14.0%+10 B2C wind 2018-2022 2023H1 ManoMano Cdiscount eBay 2023 2023 2024 25.00%25.00%20.00%20.00%2025 56.25%25.00%44.00%20.00%2026 95.31%25.00%72.80%20.00%94.6%93.3%86.6%84.0%84.0%83.3%0.1%1.0%5.1%8.8%10.0%14.0%2.7%0%50%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 ManoMano Cdiscount eBay +11 2023 26.9+16.1%Q3 10.1+31.9%2023H1 84.3%21.7%2022 6.4pct 2023 2023 5.17+226.4%23 6.1-6.5 178.9%-197.2%Q4 0.93-1.33 54.3%-120.5%2023Q1-3 36.5%19.3%-2.4pct+12.4pct 23Q1 2018-2023 wind 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023H1 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001000150020002500300035002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-50%0%50%100%150%200%020040060080010001200 yoy-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%050100150200250300350400450 yoy01,0002,0003,0004,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1人体工学工作站 仓储物流服务 人体工学大屏支架 外购产品销售船舶租赁 其他主营业务 其他业务0%10%20%30%40%50%60%+800 12 28 2024 10-15/2025 23Q3 12-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503003504004502018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%01020304050607080901002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0500010000150002000025000300002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025EB2C B2B B2C yoy B2B yoy 13 2023 57.8+24.7%Q3 21.3+27.1%2023H1/16.3/5.6/5+3.1%/-19.2%/-5.6%44.7%/15.4%/13.6%6.9 19.1%2023 3.7+22.9%Q3 1.04+21.3%2023 24.1%6.5%+1.6pct+0.2pct 2018-2023 wind 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018-20223H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001,0001,5002,0002,500 yoy-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%020406080100120140160180200 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 +2019-2022 0.1 10.1 2022 58.3%ODM OBM OBM Lista Office LO LO 2022+13.01%/+11.59%/+17.98%2023H1 1.05 14 2018-2023H1 2019 2020 2022 2021-2023H1 010002000300040005000600070002021 2022 2023H1OEM/ODM OBM01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0.1 6.5 10.10246810122019 2020 2022 wind 2021 15 2023 14.5+31.2%Q3 5.1+55.8%2023H1 9.5 6.9+34.3%72.9%1.5-5.7%15.4%2023 3.2+25.6%Q3 1.2+43.9%.2023 32.0%+1.4pct 22.2%-1.0pct 2018-2023 wind 2020Q3-2023Q3 2020Q3-2023Q3 2018-2023 2020Q3-2023Q3 2018-2023H1 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0 yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0 yoy-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy 2023 2023 Logo 10 2020-2022 2018-2023 2023 MotoLiving 5,000-6,000/2023 8 10 11 2023 10 12 2024 2023 26 23 4 100 2023 16%1150%16 2023 10 2020-2022/2018-2023 1500.01600.01700.01800.01900.02000.02100.02020 2021 2022 wind 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 23 17 2023 2023H1 7.4-26.1%2.9 4.5 38.8%60.3%4.9 1.7,65.7%23.7%2023H1 0.6-28.8%10.7%7.3%-2.6pct+0.2pct 2023 11 2023 80%,(i)(ii)(iii)2018-2023H1 wind 2019Q1-2023H1 2018-2023H1 2018-2023H1 2020H1-2023H1 2018-2023H1-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%-200204060801001201401601802002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0200400600800100012002020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 yoy-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%01020304050607080901002020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 yoy05001,0001,5002,0002,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2018-2022 51.7%56.8%64.8%64.7%70.5%2023 EGO SKIL FLEX OPE 56V Arc-Lithium 2021H1 680 2018 0.28 2022 0.66 2021H1 1630 BMS John Deere 2023 6 John Deree 2023 Q3 John Deere EGO 18 EGO 56V Arc-LithiumTM 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy wind 2023Q3 19 2023Q3 2023 25-21.6%Q3 9.6-1.4%2023H1 14.1 92%2022 32.1 8.3 80%20%2023 2.1-25.9%Q3 0.7-53.4%2023 23.1%8.6%+4.3pct-0.4pct 2018-2023 wind 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023 2019Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023H1-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-50%0%50%100%150%200%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600 yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%020406080100120140160 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%04008001,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,2002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 23H1 23 12 279.7 22 6 12 1.5 KAM 23 23H1 X3 P530 XY350 2063.8%59.8%64.7%62.0%68.7%60.3%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2018-2023 2018-2023H100.511.522.533.5405000100001500020000250003000035000400002018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 2018-2023H105001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 wind 21 2023 12.3+46.9%Q3 5.75+51.8%2023 3.1+87.3%Q3 1.51+85.8%2023 39.4%+7.1pct 25.5%+5.5pct 2023 2023 4.5-4.75+65.5%-74.7%4.44-4.68+63.9%-72.7%Q4 1.36-1.61+30.4%-54.4%1.2-1.44+17.0%-40.4%1 2 2018-2023 wind 2020Q1-2023Q3 2020Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023 2020Q1-2023Q3 2018-2023H1-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0 yoy-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 +2021 2022 58%70%IP 700ml 2020 31.59%2023 74.45%2022 151.66%4.0 1000 1350 2024 2023 2600 2024-2027 550/705/690/405 2027 4950 22 20242027 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E/yoy wind 700ml-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%051015202530354045502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3/yoy0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3700ml 500ml-700ml 500ml 23 24 25方正证券研究所上 海 市 静 安 区 延 平 路 7 1 号 延 平 大 厦 2 楼深 圳市 福田 区竹 子林 紫竹七 道光 大银 行大 厦31 层广 州 市 天 河 区 兴 盛 路12 号楼隽峰院2 期3 层 方 正 证 券 北 京 市 西 城 区 展 览 路48 号 新 联 写 字 楼6 层长 沙 市 天 心 区 湘 江 中 路 二 段36 号 华 远 国 际 中 心37 层专 注 专 心 专 业26
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